JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Who in their right mind would take on the Heyward contract without the Cubs eating a significant portion of his salary? Wouldn’t that still count against a team from a luxury tax threshold perspective?

Pretty certain they’d trade Alonso if they miss on both to avoid the exact situation described above. Plus, why not give those at bats to Palka instead if it’s another development year?

But that’s why paying a 20% premium on top of the Yankees offer if the Yankees offer is in the $35MM AAV range over 7 or 8 years is nuts.

Assuming Machado signs with the Yankees for ~$35MM AAV, a 20% premium is $7MM AAV. That’s significant.

Sheffield, Kelenic, or Dunn with Edwin please ?

Definitely similarities in their games. I wouldn't be surprised if Moncada puts up 2017 Baez numbers in 2019, albeit with a lower batting average and higher on base percentage, and then makes a big step forward in 2020.

I probably would as well but Harper would be first. Adding both guys to this organization would put the Sox on the map as easily the biggest draw in the AL Central (I know not saying much but still). Assuming the team is a division contender over the next several years, I could see attendance back to 30k+ per game with a huge uptick in merch sales that would seemingly cover the cost of both of these guys' salaries. I imagine TV ratings would more than double 2018 ratings. From a business perspective, it makes a ton of sense to sign BOTH, at least for the next 3-4 years. The risk is pain on the back end of the contracts but that risk could be lessened by opt-outs.

I expect some improvement defensively but significant improvement offensively. Can easily see a 750-775 OPS from him in 2019.

If they pulled that off, they'd see a huge increase in attendance in 2019. I for one will be buying a 40 game plan (4 tickets) if they land both those guys.

Moncada was a league average 2b in his age 22/23 season and first full MLB season. That may be disappointing because the bar was set so high but he's still young and could easily emerge as an all star caliber 2b this upcoming season or next. If he's putting up the same numbers two years from now, then yes it will be very concerning but you have to give the kid some time to develop. I expect a step forward in 2019. Maybe not all star level but a very good season in the 3-4 fWAR range.

I have no idea what they would cost in a trade or if they would even be available but some other guys comparable to Castillo that I like are Marco Gonzales, Jose Urena, Dylan Bundy, and Joe Musgrove. Could build a larger package without expending any of the system's top 5 prospects for those guys.

If you sign Machado and Harper, I'd make a trade for a young, cost controlled starter. I mentioned a guy like Luis Castillo in another thread, though he's likely not available with the Reds trying to compete in 2019. There are other guys like him that may be available on teams that are just starting to rebuild or a few years out still.

Now add Harper to that lineup as well and the team could make a legitimate run at the Indians for the division if they get even a modest improvement from the starting rotation and replace Covey with a mid-rotation quality starting pitcher.

Oh yea, I was suggesting include Rodon to even it up. I'm just not a big believer in Rodon and the fact that he's a FA after the 2021 season doesn't help either. Even with Machado, I don't see this team competing until 2020 at the earliest.

Which is why I think Rodon would be a good fit there. They've had great success with another fragile, formerly highly touted prospect in Rich Hill.

You think so? In my mind I was thinking, Rodon = Verdugo and Wood; minor league filler taking on Kemp's salary = Ruiz. I may be overvaluing Rodon though.

Right, which is why I added Rodon. Mid-rotation lefty starter that is under control at an affordable rate for the next 3 years.

Wood isn't a salary dump. He's a good pitcher that will be on an affordable arb salary. He'd also be a good flip candidate in July for a team like the Sox. Verdugo and Ruiz are both top 50 prospects. Those two have a lot of value. I think it'd be a pretty fair trade for both sides considering the other factors at play but not the type of trade Friedman typically makes so it's pie in the sky stuff for sure.

Unlikely with Friedman but it would make sense for both sides if Harper is destined for LA. They might give up one of Ruiz or Verdugo in that type of deal but probably not both.

But would they consider those guys for Rodon and minor league filler? I'd rather make a trade like that than sign Harper personally. I know that won't be a popular opinion but I'm not sold on Rodon staying healthy, he doesn't fit the contention window and Ruiz + Verdugo would be perfect fits for the Sox.

I agree and good timing as well with the Indians and Cubs both peaking a couple years back. Opportunity both within the division and local market (TV ratings) in the near future.

I was thinking someone that is cheap now, for the foreseeable future and under team control for at least 4 years (assuming Manny and Harper opt outs after year 4).

Agree 100%

Possibly but I see a trade for a young, controllable starter as more likely in that scenario. I wonder if the Reds would entertain a trade involving Luis Castillo.

Based on Steamer projections, this everyday lineup would be as productive as the Cubs’ lineup (better offense, worse defense). The pitching on the other hand will likely still be an adventure unless the young guys can turn a corner (Giolito, 5th starter, bullpen) and stay healthy (Rodon). Either way, it would give them a legitimate chance to compete with the Indians in 2019 if they get significant contributions from the young players (with guys like Cease and Dunning possibly contributing in the second half as well).