JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Has any team in recent memory won a title utilizing internal options alone? It’s guaranteed that the Sox will need to fill multiple holes with veterans through free agency and/or trades if this rebuild is going to work. And there’s nothing wrong with that.

Can’t count on every one or even most of those internal options working out. If the Sox can fill out an entire quality rotation and bullpen with internal options alone, I’d be shocked.

I agree on the Machado part. Ironically, the White Sox have one of the best infields (1B to 3B) in MLB so far this season. Abreu, Moncada, Anderson, and Sanchez have combined for 2.7 fWAR. Everyone raves about the Cubs' 1B to 3B infield and they have only combined for 2.3 fWAR. So is SS/3B really that much of a glaring weakness considering Anderson is signed thru 2024 and Sanchez is under control thru 2021? I was advocating for a long term Moustakas signing last winter because I think he'd be everything we wished Matt Davidson was. A guy that can rotate defensively between 3B, 1B, and DH and provide serious pop in the middle of the lineup. I don't see the need to throw a ton of cash at Machado when there are other more pressing needs. Also ironically, the biggest area of weakness on the current team is the outfield (though I guess this was somewhat expected). It is absolutely dreadful. Far and away the worst in MLB. I understand the guys on the current MLB roster won't be here in another two years most likely and that the farm is stacked with outfielders but I still see the outfield as a bigger need for the foreseeable future than the infield. Obviously, catcher is another area of major concern. To me, in regards to position players, I'd rather invest resources in an outfielder (Pollock?), a corner infielder (Moustakas), and a catcher (likely need to trade for one). I think you need to spread the cash and trade assets across multiple needs since, in addition to the holes mentioned, the pitching staff is also going to need multiple veteran additions and likely expensive ones at that (#2/3 starter, proven closer, setup guy). The future payroll is ridiculously low in the coming years but that cushion starts to go away rather quickly once you start making multiple additions through free agency and/or trades and I'd rather not tie up $35MM AAV for one player.

"IF" he cuts down the strikeout rate to the 25% range, he's an MVP candidate more than likely. He'd basically be Jose Altuve at the plate (lower batting average but comparable OBP, SLG, OPS) with far superior defense and baserunning.

I have a feeling this post will look quite silly by season’s end. The Albies train is already running out of steam. fWAR down to 0.8 for the season compared to Moncada’s 1.1 and it’s still April...

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Apr 13, 2018 -> 11:50 AM) They wouldn't have to get rid of them. They just wouldn't be able to sign them all long-term. You'd have 3 years of Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras and Harper in the same lineup. Signing Harper would most certainly push them over the luxury tax threshold though for the next three years.

QUOTE (soxfan49 @ Apr 13, 2018 -> 11:39 AM) I just don't see Harper going to the Cubs. If they did they'd have to get rid of one of Bryant, Rizzo or Contreras, otherwise I'm not sure how they could have four $25M+ contracts. And you're not even including Darvish, Lester or Heyward, which I think is their bigger problem.

My take...what we are seeing from Moncada is definitely concerning but not insurmountable in the long term. It seems most of his issues are mental. At the plate, it's his mental approach to hitting. It seems like he has no plan when he steps up to the plate. He doesn't understand how pitchers are attacking him. He doesn't know how to adjust his approach over the course of an at-bat or in-game. Thankfully, this is something that can be fixed with a little mentoring/coaching (that's a different issue altogether). On defense, most of issues are again mental - lack of focus. The physical tools are there, no doubt about it. Hopefully within the next two years we will see his mental approach catch up with his physical tools. Baseball is a game of constant adjustments and I think most Sox fans are simply looking for any sign of adjustments from him. Again, it's very early but he needs to start making adjustments in his game if he has any hope of becoming the type of player we all hoped he would one day be.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 13, 2018 -> 10:50 AM) Say what? I mean, let's go with a list back. Corey Kluber, Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton, Xander Boegarts, Jackie Bradley, JD Martinez, as a starter list. I'm still not sold on these two from the offensive side. No doubt they can flash the leather though.

QUOTE (daggins @ Apr 12, 2018 -> 06:42 PM) Where did I say that? I don't think the Sox sign either of them, or Donaldson for that matter. And I’d be fine with that if they were to use that same money to sign a Keuchel or Corbin and a couple dominant bullpen arms (Kimbrel/Allen).

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 7, 2018 -> 10:55 AM) Bullpens are volatile, shortlived, and have gotten expensive when compared to what position players who play a ton more are getting paid. Plus we have a TON Of pitchers who have potential relievers in their profile. We probably have a solid 20 pitchers in the minors who could have a shot at a major league bullpen, especially if you include guys like Cease who have endurance concerns in their scouting reports. The one spot I have the absolute least worry about in the next few years is the bullpen. How do you define short lived? The Royals had one of, if not the best bullpen in baseball during their 3 year run. Same for the Indians over the past 3 years. Even though relievers play a minimal amount when compared to position players, bad ones can inflict more damage over a much shorter timeframe as evidenced by what we are seeing from the Sox so far this season. I don’t think it’s a good idea to head into the “contention window” (which really should start next season) with a bunch of young arms that may have potential but are unproven at the big league level. Just take a look around the league and see what teams like the Indians, Cubs, Yankees, and Astros have done to build up their bullpens. It doesn’t have to be built entirely through free agency either but a combination of free agency and timely trades for proven veterans (Andrew Miller, Chapman, Davis, Robertson, Giles, etc).

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 7, 2018 -> 10:19 AM) Which relievers were bargain this offseason and will hit their primes from 2019-23? Reed was overpriced. Hector Rondon...maybe? But he?€™s already 30. Better risk for the win now Astros than win in perhaps 2019 White Sox. How was Reed overpriced? He got paid the going rate for a proven setup man that could also fill in as a closer if needed. He is also 29 years old and didn’t require draft pick compensation to sign, just $$.

QUOTE (ChiSoxJon @ Apr 7, 2018 -> 09:25 AM) After viewing this 'pen for a week I'm convinced that Hahn's goal for '18 is to show promise through the lineup and young arms like Giolito and Lopez (Who the TOR broadcast compared to Severino BTW) and ongoing prospect influx yet lose through the bullpen to get a top 10 pick again so he can maintain the Farm and keep a first rounder despite adding big time FAs this upcoming offseason. Also, feel like he's preparing the fanbase to miss out on a Harper/Machado-type and settle for a bullpen makeover. I would have liked that Reed idea but I do think Castillo and Avilan who were both added this offseason will be here when this time is a perennial powerhouse (At least at the beginning of the reign) Avilan and Castillo are nice additions but aren’t they both free agents after next season? The reason I liked the idea of signing Reed to a 4 year deal is that you’d have him thru the 2021 season. He could function as the closer this season and then when they add a proven closer like Kimbrel or Allen next offseason, he could easily slide to proven setup man over the next 3 years. Oh well. Probably need a spend a decent chunck of change on the bullpen next offseason if they have any plans of competing in 2019.

I’ll never understand the thought process that we have to wait on rebuilding the bullpen until the start of the anticipated contention window. Strong bullpens can take a few years to build. It’s why I strongly endorsed the idea of signing Addison Reed to a 4 year deal at ~$7MM AAV, even though the rest of the board was strongly opposed to such a signing. Why not start adding pieces now to begin addressing the team’s biggest weakness rather than reaching for 3 or 4 pieces next offseason? Heck, the Sox would probably be 5-1 right now if they had signed Reed.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 6, 2018 -> 07:22 AM) Will be fine, and much better off for the loss than eking out a win over a hapless Tigers team without Cabrera. Yoan ... Ive decided to put him in that Alexei category of slow starter in the cold weather. He easily could have 2-3 more hits, 3 homers and everyone would be pretty satisfied. As long as he hits in the 750-787.5 ops range this year, 787.5-825 in 2019, he will be 100% ready for 2020 when he’ll still be just 24. Anderson and Leury, imo, were just over-exuberant to make big plays in front of an Opening Day crowd. They will certainly remember these situations the next time out. Leury is a converted SS, let’s not forget, and it still might be his best overall position defensively. Body language wise, Anderson looks like a completely different player and much more vocal/demonstrative. He might be the leader of the team by next season, which is so important for a SS or catcher to possess those character traits. Big picture, if Yolmer and Anderson are consistent 3+ WAR players, the rebuild heavy lifting just got much easier. Not to mention Davidson at worst as a platoon DH, Fulmer in a starting or relieving role, Engel/Leury/Cordell, etc. Even just 2-3 solid contributors from that list is a huge win. Nate Jones can also bring us a nice return with that contract, mitigated by the injury history. Finally, the Blackmon deal indicates it?€™s going to be easier to keep Avi and Abreu in the fold at ?€œaffordable?€? rates. Big picture, Jack Soria sucks as a closer and is barely passable as a MR. It is what is is...even if Leury blocks the ball, there?€™s no guarantee that Soria still gets out of it with a win. He was not exactly fooling anyone. Five years ago, he was a competely different pitcher, but that Royals?€™ 40+ save closer is LONG gone. At any rate, my only concern right now is LeBron leaves the Cavs, CLE wins the WS, advertisers/sponsors flock to the Indians and sustain their competitive window for an additional year or two. Less concerrned about Minn, since they will lose Mauer/Dozier/Santana and might not be able to lock up Buxton/Sano/Berrios with early extensions. If Yolmer and Anderson are consistent 3+ WAR players, there's no reason to sign Manny Machado...

QUOTE (bmags @ Apr 2, 2018 -> 09:29 PM) For college is stats havent been particularly great for 2 years. Check out how insane rookers stats were last year. He was a second round pick. Sox picking beer at for would be incredibly strange. I think Beer can still go first round with a strong second half to this college season. He could very well end up with Rooker type numbers by season’s end and he’s a year younger than Rooker at the time of the draft. Maybe he figured something out? Will see.. http://www.thestate.com/sports/college/acc...e207677944.html

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 28, 2018 -> 06:50 AM) An ACL reconstruction shouldnt limit him at 3B. Of course, all surgeries can have complications and some dont return to full activities but the vast majority do. The return to previous level of function is over 90%. Most athletes will return to playing at 9-12 months post-op but theyll tell you the knee doesnt feel normal until 18 months. Which implies that he CAN improve defensively this year and the next few years. Perhaps he can regain his pre-injury form or at least close to it. Also means that the 2 WAR ceiling being thrown around in this thread is too low.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 27, 2018 -> 02:49 AM) The dude is probably a 2-2.5 WAR player over the next few years. I'd like to think we can do better than that, either by obviously going after Machado/Donaldson/Rendon/Arenado in FA, acquiring a good 3B via trade (Kyle Seager, Suarez, Chapman?), or finding a veteran stop gap until Burger/Gorman is ready. There are a lot of really good 3B on the FA market coming soon. We have a chance at 4 superstars and the Sox have a TON of money to spend. Go big. I don’t see Machado or Arenado as realistic options with the money they will demand. That leaves Donaldson and Rendon and both guys scare me when you consider what they will get paid. Donaldson is great but his age relative to the Sox contention window is absolutely concerning. With Rendon, I don’t know but just a gut feeling that he’s the kind of guy that would see a drop in performance after moving to the AL. Maybe I have an irrational fear after seeing what happened to the likes of Frazier, LaRoche, Dunn, etc. Both Donaldson and Rendon feel like cases where you are paying a hefty sum for past performance versus expected future performance.

Another reminder that while it’s fun to pencil in future 2020 lineups and such, injuries always have the potential to derail a prospect’s development. Thinking we have X position covered in 2020 because player X is a top prospect doesn’t always work out as planned. I hope this is nothing serious but early indications don’t look promising. Hoping for the best for Jake.

ZiPS has him as basically a league average 3b in 2018, which considering the current roster would certainly represent a significant upgrade. Of course, they also have Yolmer as a well below average 3b FWIW. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?...0&sort=24,d

QUOTE (kwill @ Feb 25, 2018 -> 07:02 PM) That is nothing for a guy that had an OPS of 868 last year. First thought is Mike Moustakas is probably going to be very disappointed. Second thought is do you think we overpaid for Wellington Castillo given what has happened to the middle tier free agent veteran market. 2/15 Million contact. I am wondering if Lucroy receives more than a one year contract. Absolutely, when you consider how this market has played out and Wellington was smart to take the offer rather than wait like some of these other guys (e.g. Alex Cobb).

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 24, 2018 -> 11:04 PM) What would Davidson have put up if you strip away his negative defense? Believing in Morrison is not too far removed from believing Avi is going to be a consistent 3.5-4.5 WAR RFer. 1.1 -0.8 -0.2 -0.5 1.4 -0.1 0.5 3.6 Has now hit age 30...the next Jose Bautista or Marwin Gonzalez or an anomaly like AVI...? Ranked 15th at his position, the definition of average, for 2018. That’s a 5 career WAR over 8 seasons, averaging 0.625. That’s not even worth $7 million to WAR adherents. I think we learned our lesson with Holland, but at least he covered innings to protect our pitching prospects who weren’t ready. All indicators point to Davidson/Yolmer getting one more season to establish their true values. The problem with Holland is that he was trending in the wrong direction between injuries and poor performance in prior seasons. Morrison is the opposite of that. Will his positive trend over the past 1.5 seasons keep up? Who knows but I’d be willing to find out for cheap. Yolmer is the starting 3b right now so no need to worry about him getting sufficient ABs and Davidson would still start against lefties and spell Yolmer occasionally at 3b.

Heck I’d sign two ex Rays, Morrison and Cobb. Both appear to have limited suitors at this point and if they can be had on two year deals at a discounted price, then why not? No draft pick lost with signing either and both are flippable assets this July or next year. No need to commit to a long term contract with either so it doesn’t restrict future signings, though Cobb may still demand 3 years (which I wouldn’t be opposed to if a low AAV

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 24, 2018 -> 02:20 PM) I'm totally ok with that. If he opts out then we suddenly have money to spend and who knows if our needs will be the same thing at that point? And if we've already won the 2020 world series like we should, then we'll have done our job. You’re far too optimistic on the 2020 thing imo and having that type of high paying player with an opt out at the start of the contention window is yet another variable that makes roster planning that much more difficult.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 24, 2018 -> 02:12 PM) Machado certainly will have an opt out or 2 in his deal. That’s actually a great point for all the Machado advocates. What if he demands an opt out clause after year 3 (2021)? That’s the exact time in which the Sox contention window should be starting to peak, theoretically at least.