JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 24, 2018 -> 01:25 PM) They took on >$20 million a year to pick up a top of the league pitcher. I don't care how the White Sox do it. There's nothing wrong with doing so in a trade. If the Angels want to make Mike Trout available am I going to be mad that we had to trade for the player that put us over the top rather than signing a free agent? God no. The Sox can make their call about what guy fits them best after they play this season, but this piddling "Mike Moustakas/Todd Frazier/Jeff Samardzija is good enough!" thinking is what we needed to throw in the trash after 2015. We know how this game works out. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chron.com/...in-12166149.php How is $20M AAV for two years in any way comparable to $33-35M AAV over 10 years?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 09:32 PM) It is the biggest flaw in the rebuild. I disagree. I think the biggest flaw in the rebuild (if it doesn’t work out) will be drafting and player development. They simply need to find a way for a handful of their top draft picks to contribute to the major league club in a significant way within the near future. Assuming they want to compete by 2020. If this doesn’t happen, they have no chance of making this a successful rebuild. You can’t fill all the roster holes by veteran signings with the likes of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 08:33 PM) Because you aren’t allowing players like Yolmer to show if they can actually be a part of this going forward because of a player like Moustakas Sure you can. He’d get plenty of AB’s as a super utility guy this year. Isn’t that where he should be on a contending club anyway?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 08:20 PM) Develop and stay healthy? You don’t sit on your hands for years and make sure your players stay healthy. If they produce, you start to build around them immediately with the thought of playoffs(and hopefully WS). You go all in on Machado and let her rip And don’t confuse me wanting Machado with me thinking everything fails if he isn’t signed. If the Sox have to go second tier because the big four all sign elsewhere then so be it. But I’m not going second tier now See I agree with that. And that’s why I’ve advocated for signing a few guys now if the value is there. What’s the significance in waiting just one more year before starting to buy?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 08:03 PM) My approach hinges on the performance of the key players of the rebuild. If they all fail then of course we are f***ed anyways, but I don’t see that being the case. But if that’s the approach wouldn’t you want to make sure that guys like Moncada, Eloy, Kopech, and Robert both develop and stay healthy in the coming years before saddling your franchise with a $350M long term contract? I don’t think you will have clearly identified all the future roster holes within the next 10 months but yet are going to commit that type of money to a single player? You might have another 6 or 7 holes to fill through free agency in the coming years to become a real contender but your hands are tied once you’ve gone “all-in” on a $35M AAV player like Machado or Harper. I’ll keep saying this but I believe the Astros are the model franchise for this Sox rebuild. They’re most expensive FA signing on a AAV basis was Carlos Beltran.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:56 PM) Gurriel, Reddick, Gattis, Beltran...Carlos Gomez, Gregerson and Verlander. Mostly high quality B tier guys. Gurriel and Verlander the two outliers. Lots of veterans to mix with the youth. If you look at this list, or 2004-05 with the Sox, you’d think anyone under 30 wouldn’t fit on a contender, lol. And yet I just saw someone write Moustakas was past his prime at age 29. That list, and what the Sox did with almost all vets other than Jenks, or the Royals adding James Shields, the Cubs adding Ben Zobrist/Lester/Lackey/Ross...each situation argues logically for the youth/veteran mix approach. This is exactly how I see the Sox rebuild unfolding. I see them taking the Houston approach filling needs with second tier free agents and then making big trades at the right moment. I guess there is more than one way to win a WS through a rebuild after all but you’d think the Sox rebuild is destined for failure if they miss out on Machado.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:54 PM) You want them to start signing free agents now, before they are approaching their window. We are one year into the rebuild and you want to start making commitments that could end up being a detriment later, with or without Machado. It’s like arguing with WBWSF about trading away Robertson. We don’t need these guys right now, you want to make those commitments next offseason when you (hopefully) have Eloy, Kopech, Giolito, Moncada, Lopez, Anderson performing well in the majors and the theoretical next wave of Burdi, Burger, Robert, Dunning, Cease knocking on the door. THEN you fill your holes Why go all in next year then? Better off waiting until 2021 or 2022 to make all your free agent signings. I doubt all the guys you mention above will be peaking for another 3-4 years anyway. Might as well just wait to see what you’ve got if that’s the approach. Even next winter is too early.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:48 PM) I don’t think he would have signed with us though. I think he wanted to go to a contender. Yes this is a great point and one of many reasons why I don’t think the Sox have a prayer of signing Machado. How much more would the Sox have to pay him than a team like NYY for him to pick the Sox? Aside from playing for an instant contender in NY, he’d be joining a historic franchise, playing in a division he’s already familiar with, and be playing in the biggest market in the game (e.g. increased marketing $$$). So if NYY is offering $325M, what do the Sox have to offer? $375M?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:47 PM) They didn't sign him, they just absorbed his contract in a trade. You’re equating the Astros’ share of Verlander’s remaining contract to Machado’s upcoming contract? Seriously?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:42 PM) If the White Sox are not willing to be in the game for the top dogs next year then there was no reason for this rebuild. How so? What big dogs have the Astros signed over the last 5+ years of their rebuild?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:40 PM) If you don’t believe in the rebuild, that’s your prerogative. The Sox have already done many things that would be deemed out of character for this front office including trading away Q and sale for high impact prospects and signing Robert. I see no value in signing Moustakas as if he kick starts the rebuild into high gear. I think they are in the game for the big money players next season Who said I don’t believe in the rebuild? Not believing they will sign Machado equates to not believing in the rebuild? I absolutely believe that they will make a significant splash in free agency in the coming years, I just don’t believe they are contenders for signing Machado.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:35 PM) I’m not obsessing, I just am not discounting the possibility I didn’t say YOU were but many Sox fans are...

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:32 PM) The Sox signing Machado would mean many things and almost every single one of them would be a huge positive wrt to the White Sox' future so I don't blame people for "obessing" over it. Now, obsessing over Moose or Hosmer or CarGo? Now that is stupid. Machado moves the needle in ways these guys do not even come close. Signing Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw would be great too but why waste time and energy over something that’s not going to happen? I don’t understand that at all.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 06:53 PM) I’m not being needlessly harsh, it is the same obsession without considering anything but the side the person hits on. This is ridiculous, Machado is an elite player and Lillian is trying to convince people that Moustakas is a better option because he balances the lineup. Moustakas is a stopgap, and nothing more. I have zero interest in the guy for many reasons, and none of them are money. The rebuild needs to continue with eyes to the future of players that fit into that window. You can tell me you believe the rebuild has a slim to none chance of producing a World Series winner, and that’s fine, but that doesn’t mean you start doing the exact same thing that got you into a rebuild which is add players that are past their prime and hope that they can somehow recapture a year or two within a long term deal. I think it’s ridiculous that fans continue to obsess over the prospect of signing Machado next winter even though the odds of that happening are slim to none.

QUOTE (FT35 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:46 PM) One thing supporting the idea of Morrison possibly figuring it out was that he had 81 walks last year. That's a MAJOR difference from his norms...kind of jumps off the page a little. He really did look like a different hitter last year, and his numbers reflect it as well. Those advocating for CarGo must be thinking of pre-2014 CarGo because he has been a shell of his former self over the past 3 years. His numbers away from Coors are pedestrian and he's always an injury risk even if he's managed to stay fairly healthy the last 3 years.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:26 PM) Yeah, I’d rather go with a guy like Morrison. More upside and a non-zero chance he can be a cheap, interim solution at DH while we wait for Sheets/Burger or see what we have in Nicky. Per MLBTR; Sounds like he may be very cheap (relatively speaking) AND no loss of a draft pick to boot. Much more upside with Morrison than a washed-up CarGo.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 11:59 AM) I’d be indifferent about this. I have zero faith in Davidson and could care less if he gets more at-bats. I’d just prefer a guy with a bit more upside if we brought in a veteran DH. You mean someone like this? Yes, I agree.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 11:06 AM) using eminors round down the WAR system, CarGo hasn't been above average since 2013. He sucks now. His home/away splits were dreadful last year and average to below average every season since 2013. And we think this will improve with him being another year older and removing him from Coors/NL? Why bother? Complete waste of a roster spot in 2018.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 10:56 AM) Yep pretty much. There is no reason to not sign him. He'd basically be replacing Davidson at DH he won't be blocking anyone next year. Well other than the fact that he’s no longer good at baseball and trending even worse in the wrong direction.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:45 AM) I am? My plan for the offense would be to extend Abreu, sign Machado for 3B, & sign a short-term place holder for LF or DH. That would be three veterans along Anderson. The prospects would include the 2016 #1 overall prospect at 2B, a 2017 top 5 overall prospect in RF, & a guy we just spent $50M on in CF. Those aren’t exactly high risk prospects and are very similar in caliber to the guys the Cubs & Astros relied on to form their core. The other LF/DH spot would hopefully be Nicky or another internal option (Cordell, Tilson, etc). Catcher is probably the biggest risk, but we should know more about Collins before we have to execute this plan. If necessary, I’d trade some prospect depth to fill one of those last two spots with an established player. Yes, I’m relying on a lot of prospects on the pitching side, but we should know more about Kopech, Giolito & Lopez after this season. Rodon will get a spot. I’d like to add a veteran impact reliever to anchor that group. Generally speaking, I think we have much more pitching depth than the Cubs & Astros and it’s timed much better in terms of two major waves hitting right on top of each other. It’s a numbers game and I think we have them. I hope you’re right, I really do. But I’m skeptical, especially on the pitching side. Can never have enough pitching.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:34 AM) You are way too optimistic about White Sox prospects. Well not just that, pitchers also have a tendency to get hurt so you always need far more depth than you expect. Especially the hard throwers like Burdi, Cease, etc.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:17 AM) Moustakas is a hole-plugger. A good hole-plugger, but he's not a cornerstone player. The problem is, we don't know where the holes will be in a year or 2. We can assume it won't be corner OF or 2B. We have a good amount of pitching in the pipeline. But after that? We have 2 catchers in the org, both of whom are a long way away. We don't have much in CF. I thought L. Garcia showed promise, but even if he fully develops, what exactly do we have? An average CF or slightly above. And the Sox have a couple of others at about that level. Anderson should improve at SS - but if he does, we're probably looking at Alexei. Not exactly a Correa. So, really, even if some of the guys develop, they will be slightly above average players....we already have our Moustakas'. Sure one non-heralded prospect could really pop - we'll see. But I'm more confident in 2 or 3 of the Delmonico's/Leurys popping into rosterable players, not stars. The Astros went into last year with overt weak-spots at 1B, LF and starting pitching. It would have also been RF, but they signed Reddick. So what happened? 33 year old Castillo has a great year. Marwin Gonzalez, barely a .700 OPS hitter over several years, balloons to .900 OPS. Marisnick, who couldn't hit .700 OPS, exceeds .800 OPS as a 4th outfielder. 33 year old Charlie Morton has a career year and they trade for Verlander. Career years are common in WS winners. But regardless, the Astros were solid at most positions. Then filled their holes. That was kind of the point of my previous posts. Even a team like Houston that was rich with young talent at the major league level AND also boosted a top farm system still dipped into the FA market and completed multiple significant trades for veteran players to round out their roster. They don’t win the WS without those moves. Without question those moves put them over the top, particularly the Verlander acquisition. To think the Sox won’t have multiple key positions to fill heading into the 2020 season is a fantasy even if 3/4 of the prospects hit. Is it realistic for the Sox to spend close to $35M on a single player given their likely payroll constraints while also filling multiple holes with vets? Sure seems like a pipe dream.

Per Spotrac, take a look at how quickly the Astros’ active payroll increased: 2015: $65M 2016: $75M 2017: $132.5M 2018: $150M right now but will increase with any in-season additions as well as guys on pre-arb Contracts (e.g. Bregman) Their most expensive player in 2017 was Carlos Beltran ($16M) and in 2018 is Justin Verlander ($20M - their portion of his salary). So what does the above look like if you bring in a $33-35M AAV guy like Machado? You can see how quickly team payroll can escalate even when starting at a minuscule number with a team built around young guys.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:36 PM) The Sox went up to a $128M payroll back in 2011. They will most certainly get back up to that level with all the new revenue streams in place. I feel like a $150M or so payroll in a few years is fairly realistic. As for holes, I seriously doubt they add a SP for big money. Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez will all gets shots at proving whether or not they are major league caliber starters. We still have Rodon to fill a spot. Hansen could be up by the end of this year. Dunning isn’t too far off. Plus potential back-end guys like Stephens, Adams, & Guerrero will ready and waiting for a shot at a spot. I think they’ll stick with what they have internally for the rotation. CF will likely be one of internal guys (Leury, Tilson, Engel, Cordell) or a free agent on a short-term deal. They will not want to block Robert. We should be able to find a DH if needed at a reasonable rate. Yes, I definitely see us adding one impact reliever and that could be fairly pricey. But at this point in time (I know it’s stilll early), I’m not seeing all these holes that will have to be plugged long-term by expansive free agents. And we can always use some of our prospect depth to acquire more cost-controlled players to fill some gaps if necessary. But again you are assuming that most/all holes will be filled by prospects. When has this ever be done? Even the Cubs and Astros over the last few years have had to bring in high priced vets to shore up their roster. Why would the Sox be any different? Take a look at the Astros for example. Check their payroll in 2016 (similar to what I would expect from the Sox next year) and how quickly it ballooned by 2017/2018. And they don’t have a single player making anywhere near the cost of a guy like Machado.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:54 PM) When have they ever had this much payroll flexibility along with such a promising young core? I was born in 1984 and I don’t recall many times. But the Sox have gone after big fish before. They were rumored to offer ARod a 10/$190M years ago. They went after Tanaka. I’m sure they’ve gone after other guys we don’t know about. I think they finally realize that going after B free agents isn’t a productive strategy. You’re better off signing high end talent with greater margin for error than the LaRoche’s of the world who can quciklg become replacement level. I also think Reinsdorf’s age plays a factor now. The reality is he may not have a lot of time left on this earth and if he wants one last championship he knows he needs to be aggressive. As the roster is currently constructed, they are likely in line for a payroll of around $60M in 2019. Yes, they lose Shields, Soria and Gonzalez but that is partially offset by pay raises for guys like Abreu, Garcia, Rodon, etc. Let’s say they sign a guy like Machado. Now you’re at a payroll of around $95M but you still have a number of holes to fill. Not every one of these prospects is going to be an above average regular and then you also have to consider that guys get hurt. So you could still be looking for a SP, RP, DH, and CF at a minimum even after signing Machado. Now what’s the cost to fill these holes in the FA market with above average regulars? Maybe another $40-50M? Your minuscule payroll is now in the $135-145M range. How high are the Sox willing to go in team payroll? If the answer is $140M+ then sure maybe they are players for one top tier guy but if they aren’t I don’t see how they’d be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player. Edit: fuzzy math corrected