JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:26 PM) Where the hell do you come up with these odds? I have never seen a poster throw out random probabilites more than you. Right now, all four of those guys are within two years of free agency. Odds are they will wait it out for a big payday if they haven’t settled already by this point. Anything can happen, but I’d wager none of these guys resign with their current clubs prior to testing the market. And yes, the Sox with a $50M payroll will have TWTW a bidding war in the $150M. For f***s same, they just spent $50M on an amateur free agent. I’m certain they plan on going to the $300M+ range for Machado. Probably won’t be enough to outbid the Yankees, but once they’re out of the picture we’re as dangerous as anyone. People really need to accept the fact that the Sox are going to spend like crazy over the next two years assuming no stumbling blocks with the rebuild and that the old way of doing things will no longer be relevant. I just don’t understand why you are so confident the Sox will be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player. What about their past ownership decisions regarding payroll and FA signings suggests that they will be in play for these top tier guys? Am I missing something here?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:36 AM) Why did it take forever for Darvish to sign? Why isn't Arrieta signed? Do they need to be better players? Same agent. Similar problem, only everyone can use pitchers. This is what Boras does, and it can backfire. Usually he pulls something out of his ass though. You forgot JD too who was just signed 3 days ago. He’s pretty good too.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 08:56 AM) I can't see the Sox handing a player like Moustakas a five year deal. Why would we be bidding against ourselves for a player we may not even want? His low OBP frightens me, as he is a career .251 avg, .305 OBP hitter. Any slip in that batting average and we are talking about a hitter who majorly struggles to get on base. His defense is not good enough to offset that either. It was pre-2017. The question is, and this is where the real evaluation needs to be made, can he regain his pre-injury defensive form? I don't have an answer to that question and I'm not sure many potential suitors do either. If he's even average defensively over the next few years, I think his overall floor is still pretty stable.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 07:01 AM) What do you mean “month by month stats”? And I wasn’t arguing that Frazier was a better hitter. My point was that Frazier has the better track record and is coming off a comparable season (if not better) to Moose. The market deemed Todd to be worth 2/$17M. Sure, Moose deserves more money than Todd for several reasons (age being a major factor), but the question is how much more? Throw in losing a draft pick and I just don’t see Moustakas at a 5/$70M deal or so being such a steal. The fact no one has snagged him up yet is telling IMO. All it’s telling me is that Boras hasn’t come to grips yet on his market value, much like JD. But when he does, I think he will have no choice but to accept a 4-5 year deal in the $55-65M range and that to me would be great value for a team like the Sox. Also, I would argue that Moose has the potential to actually improve defensively from last year now that he’s another year removed from his surgery. Don’t forget he was a plus defender prior to the injury. All of a sudden, you could very well be looking at a 3-3.5 WAR guy for a few years if his offense holds at a contract of $13-15M AAV. That’ll work.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 05:55 AM) Cozart’s WAR is boosted heavily from playing SS at a high level. Hard to compare. Jarrod Dyson has averaged 2.5 war the last five seasons and 2.7 the last four. Average # plate appearances=264 If you extrapolate to 650, he has the highest WAR by far, it would be in the 6-7 range. Yet he just signed for $7.5 million over two years. Statistics can be misleading. Actually that’s a great point about Dyson. If WAR was the end all, be all, he would have signed for a lot more than 2 years $7.5M

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 01:49 AM) The last three years (f'n BR can't do simple math): Frazier 3.7 WAR per 650 PA Moustakas 3.4 WAR per 650 PA Cozart 4.7 WAR per 650 PA Like I said he at best deserves Cozart money and that would be an overpay in my opinion. Your Frazier comparison is spot on though in all fairness to Moustakas he does deserve a little more and probably an extra year because of age. Here’s the thing. Frazier’s number is skewed by his last season in the NL (Reds in 2015). Cozart’s number is severely skewed by his performance last year which was largely benefitted from playing shortstop and again he put up these numbers with an NL team. Sox haven’t had success with 30-something’s making the transition from NL to AL. And both those guys are 3 years older than Moose. So why again does Moose deserve a contract similar to either of those guys? I guess you could make an argument that he deserves an AAV similar to Cozart and I would agree with that but I also think he’s worth another 2 years in contract duration given his age. Again, I could easily justify something like 5 years and $60-65M from the Sox perspective. Anything more and I’d pass.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:00 PM) How many guys are peak 7 to 8 WAR players? I mean, there were only two hitters last year above seven. He’s most definitely going to decline over the life of the contract, but he’s starting from such a high point that he should hopefully remain valuable over the period of time I’m suggesting. Sure, there’s always a chance he completely falls off, but I don’t that’s probable and I don’t think we should be afraid of taking calculated risks. Let me ask you guys this, what does his potential again curve like exactly? ARod’s production dropped off pretty dramatically after his age 32 season. He was still a good player for another 5 years but nowhere near his peak and he was starting from another level above Donaldson. Why would you expect even more from Donaldson? And yes, I am assuming ARod was using PEDs into 2013 but his performance had already dropped off quite dramatically after 2007 when he was 32.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. Not just beating them but beating them by a wide margin considering 2019 is his age 33 season and 2023 is his age 37 season...find it hard to believe he will put up that type of WAR during that timeframe. More likely he accumulates a WAR of 12-15 during that timeframe and now you’re exceeding $10M per WAR. Not great value imo. Let’s see how he does this year first.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 03:28 PM) That could end up being his best offer. I just don't know how many other teams need a 3B or could potentially be done rebuilding in a year. Yea, who else is really going to offer more than that? Maybe there will be a surprise team but heck we are already a week into spring training and it appears his market is declining not improving. For that type of contract, I just don’t see a real good reason for the Sox to pass unless he wants an opt out after either of the first two seasons.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:49 PM) Aging curves aren't always accurate. I bet you wouldn't have had Jose Abreu putting up the numbers he put up and a 4.1 WAR last year. He was a below average player. Now people want him to sign an extension. And yet many want to sign guys like Donaldson (who is 3 years older and not a FA until next offseason) or Harper/Machado to a 10 year contract?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:56 PM) Again -- it isn't 2015 anymore. Those players are older, and they'll be older still when we are competitive. Last year, in a bounceback season, he was a 114 wRC+ hitter, good for 107th in the major if you filter by minimum 50 plate appearances, or apparently 60-something if you filter by whatever minimum Dick Allen filtered by, which I guess is probably "Qualified for Batting Title." Would you scramble to add the roughly 100th best hitter to the middle of your order? Ok, now, take that answer and remember that next year doesn't matter in terms of overall record. Two years from now will matter possibly, if things go REALLY well next year. The year after that must matter. So we're taking that 100th best hitter form this year, pushing him 2-3 years into his 30's, and NOW placing him in the middle of oour order. Where will he rank then if ages normally? Today, he is a roughly average player overall. Those guys are ALWAYS available to sign. Every offseason you can sign average players at market rates.Why not, instead, sign a 2-win 115 wRC+ guy when we actually need him, instead of now and hoping he defies the aging curve AND that we also correctly guessed that he'll play the position we'll need in two or three years? And that his aged hasn't had him move off of that position? They aren’t “scrambling to sign” him. The whole premise of this debate is that he is available at a discounted rate. And by discounted, I mean 5 years/$60MM. In that case, yes, I would consider signing him now at age 29 even if he doesn’t perfectly align with the Sox forecasted competitive window.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:31 PM) No, I don't consider #6 to be "middle of the order." But an argument where a team can be so good offensively that they still made the playoffs despite a mediocre performance by a guy in the #6 hole is not an argument that we should sign a mediocre guy for the #6 hole. What’s your definition of middle of the order then? #3-#5? Either way whether he is #5 or #6 it’s semantics and I don’t know why everyone keeps labeling him mediocre? Apparently the Royals won a title with a bunch of mediocre players then. Not many here too high on Hosmer or Moose and both guys were regulars in the “middle of the order” during their 2015 championship season just over two years ago.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:16 PM) He’s a 5 or 6 WAR player to begin with. Even with a normal decline curve he’d be significantly more valuable player than Moustakas. I get having concerns over signing guys in their 30’s, but Donaldson is one of the best hitters in baseball. Unless my scouts have reason to believe he’ll fall off a cliff, I’m all for signing him assuming the right price. It’s debatable that Donaldson will be a much more valuable player than Moose from 2020 thru 2024. Even still, he’s also going to be much more expensive than Moose on an AAV basis assuming Moose’s market continues to tank.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:05 PM) I fully believe they are prepared to offer Machado a $300M+ contract. Will they ultimately out-bid everyone else? Probably not, but it’s worth a shot. And I’m a huge Donaldson fan and feel like he’s a great (and more realistic) fall-back option. I like Donaldson but he turns 33 later this year. That’s a guy without question that will be in serious decline within the 2020 (age 35 season) thru 2024 (age 39 season) contention window.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:59 PM) Settling for league average players a year or two early is even worse. There are alternatives in the likely even we miss out on Machado. I’m still struggling to understand why so many people want to go with plan B (or C/D for that matter) before we even attempt plan A. It’s not so much that we want them to go with plan B but that we are holding realistic expectations on how they will proceed given past ownership decisions. I have no doubt they are going to be bringing guys in and paying a hefty sum to do so, I’m just highly skeptical they will extend themselves to the top 3-5 guys in any FA class (esp when those guys demand upwards of $150M).

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:57 PM) That’s fine but we literally have zero financial commitments going forward. We can afford a luxury like Machado right now because our core will be incredibly cheap for the next four to five years. And the good news is won’t prevent us from resigning Abreu and adding other free agents. Now is not the time to be frugle and go after value signings. Our goal should be to acquire the most impactful talent possible and use our prospect depth to fill in the remaining holes as needed. Machado is definitely a long-shot, but adding a 6 WAR player in one fair swoop radically changes the complexion of the team. Adding a guy like Moose probably makes us better, but doesn’t really move the needle that much. Plus he costs us a high draft pick in what should hopefully be our last big draft. I think we need to stick with the process and go after legit stars when the time is right. I agree with this in theory but where it loses me is the fact that I do not see the White Sox committing $150M+ to a single player let alone $300M+. So we’re stuck with the second tier guys anyway. Then what?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:46 PM) Plus, you have to supplement every year. And that costs a lot of money. Yes. Take a look at what the cubs have done each of the last three or four off seasons. Lester, Fowler (brought him back), Lackey, Heyward, Zobrist, Chatwood, Darvish. I’m sure I’m missing a few.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:40 PM) I really don’t think that’s how baseball works right now. The goal should be to get our core in place and load up for a four or five year window. That is realistically from 2019 to 2024. You don’t make decisions in your window of opportunity because you’re worried how you’ll be able to extend some of your stars six years from. Look at the Cubs, they’ve traded every significant minor league asset and spent like crazy to win now. As a result, they’ll most definitely have to rebuild once Bryant & others hit free agency. I think that’s how the modern MLB works. It’s going to be rare for teams on super long runs without reloading. But it's not just the guys that hit FA 5 years from now. It's also extending guys like Abreu and Avi. If they are planning to trade those guys before next July, then that's just two more spots to fill in the everyday lineup starting in 2020. I really don't see them trading Abreu. I think he is a White Sox through this next contention window. Seems Avi is still a question mark as to whether he fits in the long term plan.

QUOTE (Username @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:13 PM) If Mouse is signing for less than $14 million annually you’re expecting from a market value perspective less than 2 WAR a season (open market is about $7 million per war with no inflation, in normal years). It might make more sense to sign a guy like him now at depressed prices, lock up 3B and give yourself a better long-term shot at re-signing the core guys down the road. Imagine trying to re-sign Eloy, Moncada and Kopech in 5-6 years with Manny declining and making $30 million. These things also don’t happen in a vacuum. If Burger tears it up and Mouse is cheap you have a good problem. Can flip either for other help. And it frees up resources to pursue other positions in FA when you’re not locking $300 million of future payroll in. Plus we are generally bereft of long-term lefty power, and the major 3Bs are righty. I really don't understand the mindset of avoiding a potentially value FA signing to wait around for guys like Machado and Arenado to become available. One, considering ownership, those guys are not realistic targets when they are projected to make $300MM+. Two, give me three guys like Moustakas for one guy like Machado or Arenado. We know there are going to be multiple holes to fill on this roster over the next couple years so why tie yourself down to one guy that restricts the ability to fill other holes? Lastly, like you said, I'd rather they maintain payroll flexibility to afford extending guys like Moncada, Eloy, Abreu, etc. in the future.

And this is all based on the assumption that Moose’s market tanks and he can be had at a very affordable price this winter that does not prohibit future acquisitions to shore up other holes at the top of the order (i.e. leadoff spot assuming Moncada slots in at #2 long term). I think Abreu is a near lock for an extension and holding down the #3 spot. Avi is the big wild card right now. If last year was real he looks very nice as a #4/5 hitter long term. Obviously this year is a big year for him and for the Sox in determining if he is a critical piece for the next competitive window. Moose as an occasional #5 and regular #6 hitter would mean that this lineup is actually very competitve in a couple years imo. I guess I don’t see the big concern for a dramatic drop in his offensive performance over the next few years.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:52 AM) First, as I stated in the first post where I mentioned the ranking, I used a table with a minimum PA number of 50 to find the 107 rank. This is important so that you don't ignore mid-season call-ups. Which did you use? Second, everyone is entirely ignoring context with this signing. If you are making a signing now for the sake of the future, you need to consider the player's performance in the FUTURE. As has been pointed out several times by several posters in this thread, Moustakas is currently 29 years old and has already shown signs of decline. There is no reason to believe his defense will get better with age. His primary contribution (power), is more abundant in today's run environment than ever before. Your initial post that I quoted said something to effect that the white sox are likely not a playoff caliber team in two years (2020) if Moose is hitting in the middle of the lineup. How do you figure? And how do you define “middle of the lineup”? To me, that’s #3 thru #6. How many 2017 playoff teams regularly batted a guy #6 in their lineup last year with an OPS better than .835? Even if you are expecting a drop in performance two years from now, are you expecting it to be so dramatic that his OPS falls below say .750? Even after moving into a more hitter friendly park? For reference, the Yankees scored the second most runs in baseball last year and they were batting Greg Bird in the #6 spot for most of their playoff games. That’s a team that made it to the ALCS and was one game away from knocking off the eventual champ. The guys NL playoff teams were rolling out in that spot in the order were even worse...

QUOTE (KnightsOnMintSt @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 09:11 AM) I am on the side that I would like the White Sox to sign Moustakas. He fills a need, and I feel like if you can get him around 5yr 80mil, the Sox should hop on that. I also dont think a Moustakas signing means that we're out on Machado. We could easily move Moose to 1st or DH, or even slide Machado over to SS, if we were to sign him. White Sox have a lot of money and a lot of options. Yep, to have a guy like Moose batting 6th with guys like Moncada, Abreu, Jimenez, and Avi in front of him sounds fantastic...

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 08:09 AM) Yes, they did, in 2015. When Moustakas was 27 years old and put up a nearly 4-win season -- which is something he hasn't even sniffed since. In 2020, he'll be 32 years old. The Cardinals won a World Series in 2011 with Albert Pujols in the middle of their lineup. That doesn't mean that should be the Angels' plan now. He’s 29 years old coming off a season in which he posted a 2.2 fWAR entirely driven by his offensive production. To say the Sox are unlikely to be a playoff caliber team with a guy like him batting in the middle of their lineup makes no sense imo.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 05:35 PM) Neither does Moustakas. He's a lefty, yes, but if he's in the middle of our lineup in 2020, that means it probably isn't a playoff-caliber lineup. The Royals won a World Series with Moose in he middle of their lineup

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 01:12 PM) I'm pretty confident in saying that the White Sox won't be forfeiting the 45th pick and $2 million in draft capital to sign Mike Moustakas. Why would they lose their 45th pick and not their third round pick (I.e. “third highest pick”)? Sox don’t have a sandwich pick this year.