JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Regarding the opening of the contention window, I think the handling of Kopech and Eloy is very telling. They’d be up with the big club already if the front office had any intentions of competing in 2019. The optomistic opening of the contention window is 2020 but 2021 is more likely at this point. With this in mind, Rodon should absolutely be on the block over the next 12 months if a good opportunity presents itself especially since their control over his contract really doesn’t align with the anticipated contention window.

Reds need pitching bottom line. Why not trade from a position of strength? It makes sense from their perspective. They could transition India to the outfield perhaps but does he have the same value in LF as he does at 3B? Likely not.

For sure. I just wonder if Lopez is a better fit for a team like the Reds since they are still rebuilding but getting close to competing and wouldn't have to unload their top young talent in a trade like they would with Rodon. I think Rodon is likely more appealing to a team like the Brewers or Pirates who appear to be in win-now mode. That's why I was thinking Hayes is another 3B prospect to target, particularly if they have any faith in the long term prospects of 25 year old Colin Moran.

Or a major league talent with 5 years of team control like Lopez

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised if they did but presumably they would get at another 1-2 high end pitching prospects in return that could help fill out the future rotation.

Gotta give something to get something. In addition to India, I'd explore the cost of obtaining Hayes (Pirates - hopefully they see Moran as the long term solution at 3B) and Welker (Rockies - extend Arenado). Also, I don't think India will be untouchable by any means.

I hear you but as the Kopech/Eloy saga plays out, the biggest thing it's telling me is that the contention window timeline is pushed back in the mind's of the front office (one year at least). Best case scenario, the team is competitive in 2020 so we still have nearly a year and a half to figure out who from this current group of prospects are viable rotation pieces. Rodon is a given (unless traded or injured) and hopefully they can find another 2-3 reliable options from the group of - Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Dunning, Hansen, Stephens, Flores, etc. Then fill in the other 1 or 2 spots with veteran FA's, if needed. It just seems 3b is a black hole in the org right now, possibly more so than any other position.

Perhaps a package of ReyLo and Walker/Call/Cordell would get it done? I like ReyLo but I'd be willing to part with him if they believe India is a long term fit at 3B. Seems India should be a fast riser too with a possible MLB debut in 2020 like Madrigal.

Yea, if Moncada, Eloy, and Kopech turn out like 2018 Buxton, Sano, And Berrios, the Sox will find it difficult to compete as well. Thankfully I don’t see that happening but one never truly knows with prospects.

One thing that’s really hurt the Twins since 2014 is their lack of payroll flexibility. They haven’t been able to sign any upper tier free agents to supplement their farm with the exception of Ervin Santana, which I wouldn’t even consider a top FA signing really. They’ve only increased payroll ~$25MM since 2014 and less than $10MM since 2015. Whereas, the WS should have somewhere in the range of $60MM to increase their team payroll after this season and perhaps even more if they end up trading Abreu and Garcia this winter.

And I’m confident it will happen in time. Everyone just needs to exhibit a little patience. He’ll get there.

You are insufferable

Along the lines of free agent signings this offseason, I think Grandal needs to be priority #1 (I've given up on the Machado fantasy). I doubt he will receive a QO from LA and the Sox really need to bring in an experienced, strong defensive catcher to work with these young pitchers the next few years. I wouldn't be upset if they signed him and no one else this winter. Of the bottom tier FA's, I'd also consider Leonys Martin to cover CF for a couple years until Lubo is ready in 2020 (hopefully).

I like Pollock a lot but will he be worth losing a high second draft pick to sign given his age and injury history? I presume he will receive a QO from Arizona.

Make that two hits and two walks. On base 4/5 AB’s tonight. OPS up to .722. FOF should call him out more often. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Moncada perform well down the stretch and finish with a mid-700’s OPS. For comparison, Baez finished with a .737 OPS in 2016 (also his first full MLB season at age 23). Patience is needed here.

For all the talk of his decline, would anyone be surprised if Jose ended the season with a .825-.850 OPS?

The present (game you cited) is also Moncada with two hits including a homer and walk. And Chris Sale is on the DL, at the present moment. Let’s see how this trade looks in a couple years before declaring it a bust, fair?

Baez was a ~2 WAR player up until this year (age 25 season). I think you have to give Moncada until thru July 2020 at least before worrying he's nothing more than a league average starter. If he hasn't progressed at all by then, it's time to start worrying and/or considering other options for 2B (e.g., Madrigal).

If by weak spot you mean league average starter then yes I would agree. I expect the next WS winning team to have at least 2 or 3 league average starters (just like the Cubs this year - Rizzo, Almora, Happ, and Heyward are all average to slightly above average starters this year as I would expect with TA in the future).

Realistically, if they get 27-30 WAR from their offense, they will be contenders as long as the pitching is above average. So even if Moncada is a good but not great player in a couple years, they can still hit that number as a team. Of course, the other positions need to be filled with at least league average or better starters. C - 2.0, 1B - 2.5, 2B - 3.5, SS - 3.0, 3B - 2.0, LF - 4.5, CF - 3.5, RF - 2.5, DH - 2.0, Bench - 3.0 = 28.5 There are no "stars" in that group with the exception of perhaps LF. Even 4.5 WAR isn't mega-star level, it's simply all-star level, which I think is a fair expectation for Eloy at this point. What they can't have is a black hole at multiple positions because then they would need multiple stars at other positions to offset it. Also consider that the Sox position players (excluding the OF) rate near league average already this season despite underwhelming results from Abreu, Moncada, and Sanchez. I exclude the OF because their OF is the worst in baseball yet we know none of these guys will still be here in 2020 with the possible exception of Avi if he's extended (and he should be good for ~2.5 WAR when healthy if extended).

At the end of the day, the Sox don’t NEED Moncada to be a star for the rebuild to work. What they need is solid production across the diamond and a strong pitching staff. Big picture, pitching is a bigger concern to me but it’s far too early to be overly concerned there either considering we haven’t seen what guys like Kopech, Cease, Dunning, etc. are capable of at the big league level.

Moncada may have been overhyped but I still expect him to be a consistent 3-4 WAR type, which is fantastic when you consider it’s been awhile since the Sox had an infielder (not named Abreu) capable of doing that consistently.

I’d say Kopech has really found his groove the last few weeks. 60/86 strikes tonight. Very impressive.

Between the recent trades by the Braves and the promotion of Allard, who will soon lose prospect eligibility, I’d give the Sox a slight edge on the Braves for #2.

Oh ok, didn't realize that's how it worked. What happens with the $2M buyout for next season if he's traded? Right now the Padres are covering that per Spotrac. Would that money also go bye-bye for the receiving team in a trade?