JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (bmags @ Apr 2, 2018 -> 09:29 PM) For college is stats havent been particularly great for 2 years. Check out how insane rookers stats were last year. He was a second round pick. Sox picking beer at for would be incredibly strange. I think Beer can still go first round with a strong second half to this college season. He could very well end up with Rooker type numbers by season’s end and he’s a year younger than Rooker at the time of the draft. Maybe he figured something out? Will see.. http://www.thestate.com/sports/college/acc...e207677944.html

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 28, 2018 -> 06:50 AM) An ACL reconstruction shouldnt limit him at 3B. Of course, all surgeries can have complications and some dont return to full activities but the vast majority do. The return to previous level of function is over 90%. Most athletes will return to playing at 9-12 months post-op but theyll tell you the knee doesnt feel normal until 18 months. Which implies that he CAN improve defensively this year and the next few years. Perhaps he can regain his pre-injury form or at least close to it. Also means that the 2 WAR ceiling being thrown around in this thread is too low.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 27, 2018 -> 02:49 AM) The dude is probably a 2-2.5 WAR player over the next few years. I'd like to think we can do better than that, either by obviously going after Machado/Donaldson/Rendon/Arenado in FA, acquiring a good 3B via trade (Kyle Seager, Suarez, Chapman?), or finding a veteran stop gap until Burger/Gorman is ready. There are a lot of really good 3B on the FA market coming soon. We have a chance at 4 superstars and the Sox have a TON of money to spend. Go big. I don’t see Machado or Arenado as realistic options with the money they will demand. That leaves Donaldson and Rendon and both guys scare me when you consider what they will get paid. Donaldson is great but his age relative to the Sox contention window is absolutely concerning. With Rendon, I don’t know but just a gut feeling that he’s the kind of guy that would see a drop in performance after moving to the AL. Maybe I have an irrational fear after seeing what happened to the likes of Frazier, LaRoche, Dunn, etc. Both Donaldson and Rendon feel like cases where you are paying a hefty sum for past performance versus expected future performance.

Another reminder that while it’s fun to pencil in future 2020 lineups and such, injuries always have the potential to derail a prospect’s development. Thinking we have X position covered in 2020 because player X is a top prospect doesn’t always work out as planned. I hope this is nothing serious but early indications don’t look promising. Hoping for the best for Jake.

ZiPS has him as basically a league average 3b in 2018, which considering the current roster would certainly represent a significant upgrade. Of course, they also have Yolmer as a well below average 3b FWIW. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?...0&sort=24,d

QUOTE (kwill @ Feb 25, 2018 -> 07:02 PM) That is nothing for a guy that had an OPS of 868 last year. First thought is Mike Moustakas is probably going to be very disappointed. Second thought is do you think we overpaid for Wellington Castillo given what has happened to the middle tier free agent veteran market. 2/15 Million contact. I am wondering if Lucroy receives more than a one year contract. Absolutely, when you consider how this market has played out and Wellington was smart to take the offer rather than wait like some of these other guys (e.g. Alex Cobb).

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 24, 2018 -> 11:04 PM) What would Davidson have put up if you strip away his negative defense? Believing in Morrison is not too far removed from believing Avi is going to be a consistent 3.5-4.5 WAR RFer. 1.1 -0.8 -0.2 -0.5 1.4 -0.1 0.5 3.6 Has now hit age 30...the next Jose Bautista or Marwin Gonzalez or an anomaly like AVI...? Ranked 15th at his position, the definition of average, for 2018. That’s a 5 career WAR over 8 seasons, averaging 0.625. That’s not even worth $7 million to WAR adherents. I think we learned our lesson with Holland, but at least he covered innings to protect our pitching prospects who weren’t ready. All indicators point to Davidson/Yolmer getting one more season to establish their true values. The problem with Holland is that he was trending in the wrong direction between injuries and poor performance in prior seasons. Morrison is the opposite of that. Will his positive trend over the past 1.5 seasons keep up? Who knows but I’d be willing to find out for cheap. Yolmer is the starting 3b right now so no need to worry about him getting sufficient ABs and Davidson would still start against lefties and spell Yolmer occasionally at 3b.

Heck I’d sign two ex Rays, Morrison and Cobb. Both appear to have limited suitors at this point and if they can be had on two year deals at a discounted price, then why not? No draft pick lost with signing either and both are flippable assets this July or next year. No need to commit to a long term contract with either so it doesn’t restrict future signings, though Cobb may still demand 3 years (which I wouldn’t be opposed to if a low AAV

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 24, 2018 -> 02:20 PM) I'm totally ok with that. If he opts out then we suddenly have money to spend and who knows if our needs will be the same thing at that point? And if we've already won the 2020 world series like we should, then we'll have done our job. You’re far too optimistic on the 2020 thing imo and having that type of high paying player with an opt out at the start of the contention window is yet another variable that makes roster planning that much more difficult.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 24, 2018 -> 02:12 PM) Machado certainly will have an opt out or 2 in his deal. That’s actually a great point for all the Machado advocates. What if he demands an opt out clause after year 3 (2021)? That’s the exact time in which the Sox contention window should be starting to peak, theoretically at least.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 24, 2018 -> 01:25 PM) They took on >$20 million a year to pick up a top of the league pitcher. I don't care how the White Sox do it. There's nothing wrong with doing so in a trade. If the Angels want to make Mike Trout available am I going to be mad that we had to trade for the player that put us over the top rather than signing a free agent? God no. The Sox can make their call about what guy fits them best after they play this season, but this piddling "Mike Moustakas/Todd Frazier/Jeff Samardzija is good enough!" thinking is what we needed to throw in the trash after 2015. We know how this game works out. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chron.com/...in-12166149.php How is $20M AAV for two years in any way comparable to $33-35M AAV over 10 years?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 09:32 PM) It is the biggest flaw in the rebuild. I disagree. I think the biggest flaw in the rebuild (if it doesn’t work out) will be drafting and player development. They simply need to find a way for a handful of their top draft picks to contribute to the major league club in a significant way within the near future. Assuming they want to compete by 2020. If this doesn’t happen, they have no chance of making this a successful rebuild. You can’t fill all the roster holes by veteran signings with the likes of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 08:33 PM) Because you aren’t allowing players like Yolmer to show if they can actually be a part of this going forward because of a player like Moustakas Sure you can. He’d get plenty of AB’s as a super utility guy this year. Isn’t that where he should be on a contending club anyway?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 08:20 PM) Develop and stay healthy? You don’t sit on your hands for years and make sure your players stay healthy. If they produce, you start to build around them immediately with the thought of playoffs(and hopefully WS). You go all in on Machado and let her rip And don’t confuse me wanting Machado with me thinking everything fails if he isn’t signed. If the Sox have to go second tier because the big four all sign elsewhere then so be it. But I’m not going second tier now See I agree with that. And that’s why I’ve advocated for signing a few guys now if the value is there. What’s the significance in waiting just one more year before starting to buy?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 08:03 PM) My approach hinges on the performance of the key players of the rebuild. If they all fail then of course we are f***ed anyways, but I don’t see that being the case. But if that’s the approach wouldn’t you want to make sure that guys like Moncada, Eloy, Kopech, and Robert both develop and stay healthy in the coming years before saddling your franchise with a $350M long term contract? I don’t think you will have clearly identified all the future roster holes within the next 10 months but yet are going to commit that type of money to a single player? You might have another 6 or 7 holes to fill through free agency in the coming years to become a real contender but your hands are tied once you’ve gone “all-in” on a $35M AAV player like Machado or Harper. I’ll keep saying this but I believe the Astros are the model franchise for this Sox rebuild. They’re most expensive FA signing on a AAV basis was Carlos Beltran.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:56 PM) Gurriel, Reddick, Gattis, Beltran...Carlos Gomez, Gregerson and Verlander. Mostly high quality B tier guys. Gurriel and Verlander the two outliers. Lots of veterans to mix with the youth. If you look at this list, or 2004-05 with the Sox, you’d think anyone under 30 wouldn’t fit on a contender, lol. And yet I just saw someone write Moustakas was past his prime at age 29. That list, and what the Sox did with almost all vets other than Jenks, or the Royals adding James Shields, the Cubs adding Ben Zobrist/Lester/Lackey/Ross...each situation argues logically for the youth/veteran mix approach. This is exactly how I see the Sox rebuild unfolding. I see them taking the Houston approach filling needs with second tier free agents and then making big trades at the right moment. I guess there is more than one way to win a WS through a rebuild after all but you’d think the Sox rebuild is destined for failure if they miss out on Machado.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:54 PM) You want them to start signing free agents now, before they are approaching their window. We are one year into the rebuild and you want to start making commitments that could end up being a detriment later, with or without Machado. It’s like arguing with WBWSF about trading away Robertson. We don’t need these guys right now, you want to make those commitments next offseason when you (hopefully) have Eloy, Kopech, Giolito, Moncada, Lopez, Anderson performing well in the majors and the theoretical next wave of Burdi, Burger, Robert, Dunning, Cease knocking on the door. THEN you fill your holes Why go all in next year then? Better off waiting until 2021 or 2022 to make all your free agent signings. I doubt all the guys you mention above will be peaking for another 3-4 years anyway. Might as well just wait to see what you’ve got if that’s the approach. Even next winter is too early.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:48 PM) I don’t think he would have signed with us though. I think he wanted to go to a contender. Yes this is a great point and one of many reasons why I don’t think the Sox have a prayer of signing Machado. How much more would the Sox have to pay him than a team like NYY for him to pick the Sox? Aside from playing for an instant contender in NY, he’d be joining a historic franchise, playing in a division he’s already familiar with, and be playing in the biggest market in the game (e.g. increased marketing $$$). So if NYY is offering $325M, what do the Sox have to offer? $375M?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:47 PM) They didn't sign him, they just absorbed his contract in a trade. You’re equating the Astros’ share of Verlander’s remaining contract to Machado’s upcoming contract? Seriously?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:42 PM) If the White Sox are not willing to be in the game for the top dogs next year then there was no reason for this rebuild. How so? What big dogs have the Astros signed over the last 5+ years of their rebuild?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:40 PM) If you don’t believe in the rebuild, that’s your prerogative. The Sox have already done many things that would be deemed out of character for this front office including trading away Q and sale for high impact prospects and signing Robert. I see no value in signing Moustakas as if he kick starts the rebuild into high gear. I think they are in the game for the big money players next season Who said I don’t believe in the rebuild? Not believing they will sign Machado equates to not believing in the rebuild? I absolutely believe that they will make a significant splash in free agency in the coming years, I just don’t believe they are contenders for signing Machado.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:35 PM) I’m not obsessing, I just am not discounting the possibility I didn’t say YOU were but many Sox fans are...

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:32 PM) The Sox signing Machado would mean many things and almost every single one of them would be a huge positive wrt to the White Sox' future so I don't blame people for "obessing" over it. Now, obsessing over Moose or Hosmer or CarGo? Now that is stupid. Machado moves the needle in ways these guys do not even come close. Signing Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw would be great too but why waste time and energy over something that’s not going to happen? I don’t understand that at all.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 06:53 PM) I’m not being needlessly harsh, it is the same obsession without considering anything but the side the person hits on. This is ridiculous, Machado is an elite player and Lillian is trying to convince people that Moustakas is a better option because he balances the lineup. Moustakas is a stopgap, and nothing more. I have zero interest in the guy for many reasons, and none of them are money. The rebuild needs to continue with eyes to the future of players that fit into that window. You can tell me you believe the rebuild has a slim to none chance of producing a World Series winner, and that’s fine, but that doesn’t mean you start doing the exact same thing that got you into a rebuild which is add players that are past their prime and hope that they can somehow recapture a year or two within a long term deal. I think it’s ridiculous that fans continue to obsess over the prospect of signing Machado next winter even though the odds of that happening are slim to none.

QUOTE (FT35 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:46 PM) One thing supporting the idea of Morrison possibly figuring it out was that he had 81 walks last year. That's a MAJOR difference from his norms...kind of jumps off the page a little. He really did look like a different hitter last year, and his numbers reflect it as well. Those advocating for CarGo must be thinking of pre-2014 CarGo because he has been a shell of his former self over the past 3 years. His numbers away from Coors are pedestrian and he's always an injury risk even if he's managed to stay fairly healthy the last 3 years.