JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:26 PM) Yeah, I’d rather go with a guy like Morrison. More upside and a non-zero chance he can be a cheap, interim solution at DH while we wait for Sheets/Burger or see what we have in Nicky. Per MLBTR; Sounds like he may be very cheap (relatively speaking) AND no loss of a draft pick to boot. Much more upside with Morrison than a washed-up CarGo.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 11:59 AM) I’d be indifferent about this. I have zero faith in Davidson and could care less if he gets more at-bats. I’d just prefer a guy with a bit more upside if we brought in a veteran DH. You mean someone like this? Yes, I agree.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 11:06 AM) using eminors round down the WAR system, CarGo hasn't been above average since 2013. He sucks now. His home/away splits were dreadful last year and average to below average every season since 2013. And we think this will improve with him being another year older and removing him from Coors/NL? Why bother? Complete waste of a roster spot in 2018.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 10:56 AM) Yep pretty much. There is no reason to not sign him. He'd basically be replacing Davidson at DH he won't be blocking anyone next year. Well other than the fact that he’s no longer good at baseball and trending even worse in the wrong direction.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:45 AM) I am? My plan for the offense would be to extend Abreu, sign Machado for 3B, & sign a short-term place holder for LF or DH. That would be three veterans along Anderson. The prospects would include the 2016 #1 overall prospect at 2B, a 2017 top 5 overall prospect in RF, & a guy we just spent $50M on in CF. Those aren’t exactly high risk prospects and are very similar in caliber to the guys the Cubs & Astros relied on to form their core. The other LF/DH spot would hopefully be Nicky or another internal option (Cordell, Tilson, etc). Catcher is probably the biggest risk, but we should know more about Collins before we have to execute this plan. If necessary, I’d trade some prospect depth to fill one of those last two spots with an established player. Yes, I’m relying on a lot of prospects on the pitching side, but we should know more about Kopech, Giolito & Lopez after this season. Rodon will get a spot. I’d like to add a veteran impact reliever to anchor that group. Generally speaking, I think we have much more pitching depth than the Cubs & Astros and it’s timed much better in terms of two major waves hitting right on top of each other. It’s a numbers game and I think we have them. I hope you’re right, I really do. But I’m skeptical, especially on the pitching side. Can never have enough pitching.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:34 AM) You are way too optimistic about White Sox prospects. Well not just that, pitchers also have a tendency to get hurt so you always need far more depth than you expect. Especially the hard throwers like Burdi, Cease, etc.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 07:17 AM) Moustakas is a hole-plugger. A good hole-plugger, but he's not a cornerstone player. The problem is, we don't know where the holes will be in a year or 2. We can assume it won't be corner OF or 2B. We have a good amount of pitching in the pipeline. But after that? We have 2 catchers in the org, both of whom are a long way away. We don't have much in CF. I thought L. Garcia showed promise, but even if he fully develops, what exactly do we have? An average CF or slightly above. And the Sox have a couple of others at about that level. Anderson should improve at SS - but if he does, we're probably looking at Alexei. Not exactly a Correa. So, really, even if some of the guys develop, they will be slightly above average players....we already have our Moustakas'. Sure one non-heralded prospect could really pop - we'll see. But I'm more confident in 2 or 3 of the Delmonico's/Leurys popping into rosterable players, not stars. The Astros went into last year with overt weak-spots at 1B, LF and starting pitching. It would have also been RF, but they signed Reddick. So what happened? 33 year old Castillo has a great year. Marwin Gonzalez, barely a .700 OPS hitter over several years, balloons to .900 OPS. Marisnick, who couldn't hit .700 OPS, exceeds .800 OPS as a 4th outfielder. 33 year old Charlie Morton has a career year and they trade for Verlander. Career years are common in WS winners. But regardless, the Astros were solid at most positions. Then filled their holes. That was kind of the point of my previous posts. Even a team like Houston that was rich with young talent at the major league level AND also boosted a top farm system still dipped into the FA market and completed multiple significant trades for veteran players to round out their roster. They don’t win the WS without those moves. Without question those moves put them over the top, particularly the Verlander acquisition. To think the Sox won’t have multiple key positions to fill heading into the 2020 season is a fantasy even if 3/4 of the prospects hit. Is it realistic for the Sox to spend close to $35M on a single player given their likely payroll constraints while also filling multiple holes with vets? Sure seems like a pipe dream.

Per Spotrac, take a look at how quickly the Astros’ active payroll increased: 2015: $65M 2016: $75M 2017: $132.5M 2018: $150M right now but will increase with any in-season additions as well as guys on pre-arb Contracts (e.g. Bregman) Their most expensive player in 2017 was Carlos Beltran ($16M) and in 2018 is Justin Verlander ($20M - their portion of his salary). So what does the above look like if you bring in a $33-35M AAV guy like Machado? You can see how quickly team payroll can escalate even when starting at a minuscule number with a team built around young guys.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:36 PM) The Sox went up to a $128M payroll back in 2011. They will most certainly get back up to that level with all the new revenue streams in place. I feel like a $150M or so payroll in a few years is fairly realistic. As for holes, I seriously doubt they add a SP for big money. Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez will all gets shots at proving whether or not they are major league caliber starters. We still have Rodon to fill a spot. Hansen could be up by the end of this year. Dunning isn’t too far off. Plus potential back-end guys like Stephens, Adams, & Guerrero will ready and waiting for a shot at a spot. I think they’ll stick with what they have internally for the rotation. CF will likely be one of internal guys (Leury, Tilson, Engel, Cordell) or a free agent on a short-term deal. They will not want to block Robert. We should be able to find a DH if needed at a reasonable rate. Yes, I definitely see us adding one impact reliever and that could be fairly pricey. But at this point in time (I know it’s stilll early), I’m not seeing all these holes that will have to be plugged long-term by expansive free agents. And we can always use some of our prospect depth to acquire more cost-controlled players to fill some gaps if necessary. But again you are assuming that most/all holes will be filled by prospects. When has this ever be done? Even the Cubs and Astros over the last few years have had to bring in high priced vets to shore up their roster. Why would the Sox be any different? Take a look at the Astros for example. Check their payroll in 2016 (similar to what I would expect from the Sox next year) and how quickly it ballooned by 2017/2018. And they don’t have a single player making anywhere near the cost of a guy like Machado.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:54 PM) When have they ever had this much payroll flexibility along with such a promising young core? I was born in 1984 and I don’t recall many times. But the Sox have gone after big fish before. They were rumored to offer ARod a 10/$190M years ago. They went after Tanaka. I’m sure they’ve gone after other guys we don’t know about. I think they finally realize that going after B free agents isn’t a productive strategy. You’re better off signing high end talent with greater margin for error than the LaRoche’s of the world who can quciklg become replacement level. I also think Reinsdorf’s age plays a factor now. The reality is he may not have a lot of time left on this earth and if he wants one last championship he knows he needs to be aggressive. As the roster is currently constructed, they are likely in line for a payroll of around $60M in 2019. Yes, they lose Shields, Soria and Gonzalez but that is partially offset by pay raises for guys like Abreu, Garcia, Rodon, etc. Let’s say they sign a guy like Machado. Now you’re at a payroll of around $95M but you still have a number of holes to fill. Not every one of these prospects is going to be an above average regular and then you also have to consider that guys get hurt. So you could still be looking for a SP, RP, DH, and CF at a minimum even after signing Machado. Now what’s the cost to fill these holes in the FA market with above average regulars? Maybe another $40-50M? Your minuscule payroll is now in the $135-145M range. How high are the Sox willing to go in team payroll? If the answer is $140M+ then sure maybe they are players for one top tier guy but if they aren’t I don’t see how they’d be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player. Edit: fuzzy math corrected

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:26 PM) Where the hell do you come up with these odds? I have never seen a poster throw out random probabilites more than you. Right now, all four of those guys are within two years of free agency. Odds are they will wait it out for a big payday if they haven’t settled already by this point. Anything can happen, but I’d wager none of these guys resign with their current clubs prior to testing the market. And yes, the Sox with a $50M payroll will have TWTW a bidding war in the $150M. For f***s same, they just spent $50M on an amateur free agent. I’m certain they plan on going to the $300M+ range for Machado. Probably won’t be enough to outbid the Yankees, but once they’re out of the picture we’re as dangerous as anyone. People really need to accept the fact that the Sox are going to spend like crazy over the next two years assuming no stumbling blocks with the rebuild and that the old way of doing things will no longer be relevant. I just don’t understand why you are so confident the Sox will be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player. What about their past ownership decisions regarding payroll and FA signings suggests that they will be in play for these top tier guys? Am I missing something here?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:36 AM) Why did it take forever for Darvish to sign? Why isn't Arrieta signed? Do they need to be better players? Same agent. Similar problem, only everyone can use pitchers. This is what Boras does, and it can backfire. Usually he pulls something out of his ass though. You forgot JD too who was just signed 3 days ago. He’s pretty good too.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 08:56 AM) I can't see the Sox handing a player like Moustakas a five year deal. Why would we be bidding against ourselves for a player we may not even want? His low OBP frightens me, as he is a career .251 avg, .305 OBP hitter. Any slip in that batting average and we are talking about a hitter who majorly struggles to get on base. His defense is not good enough to offset that either. It was pre-2017. The question is, and this is where the real evaluation needs to be made, can he regain his pre-injury defensive form? I don't have an answer to that question and I'm not sure many potential suitors do either. If he's even average defensively over the next few years, I think his overall floor is still pretty stable.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 07:01 AM) What do you mean “month by month stats”? And I wasn’t arguing that Frazier was a better hitter. My point was that Frazier has the better track record and is coming off a comparable season (if not better) to Moose. The market deemed Todd to be worth 2/$17M. Sure, Moose deserves more money than Todd for several reasons (age being a major factor), but the question is how much more? Throw in losing a draft pick and I just don’t see Moustakas at a 5/$70M deal or so being such a steal. The fact no one has snagged him up yet is telling IMO. All it’s telling me is that Boras hasn’t come to grips yet on his market value, much like JD. But when he does, I think he will have no choice but to accept a 4-5 year deal in the $55-65M range and that to me would be great value for a team like the Sox. Also, I would argue that Moose has the potential to actually improve defensively from last year now that he’s another year removed from his surgery. Don’t forget he was a plus defender prior to the injury. All of a sudden, you could very well be looking at a 3-3.5 WAR guy for a few years if his offense holds at a contract of $13-15M AAV. That’ll work.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 05:55 AM) Cozart’s WAR is boosted heavily from playing SS at a high level. Hard to compare. Jarrod Dyson has averaged 2.5 war the last five seasons and 2.7 the last four. Average # plate appearances=264 If you extrapolate to 650, he has the highest WAR by far, it would be in the 6-7 range. Yet he just signed for $7.5 million over two years. Statistics can be misleading. Actually that’s a great point about Dyson. If WAR was the end all, be all, he would have signed for a lot more than 2 years $7.5M

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 01:49 AM) The last three years (f'n BR can't do simple math): Frazier 3.7 WAR per 650 PA Moustakas 3.4 WAR per 650 PA Cozart 4.7 WAR per 650 PA Like I said he at best deserves Cozart money and that would be an overpay in my opinion. Your Frazier comparison is spot on though in all fairness to Moustakas he does deserve a little more and probably an extra year because of age. Here’s the thing. Frazier’s number is skewed by his last season in the NL (Reds in 2015). Cozart’s number is severely skewed by his performance last year which was largely benefitted from playing shortstop and again he put up these numbers with an NL team. Sox haven’t had success with 30-something’s making the transition from NL to AL. And both those guys are 3 years older than Moose. So why again does Moose deserve a contract similar to either of those guys? I guess you could make an argument that he deserves an AAV similar to Cozart and I would agree with that but I also think he’s worth another 2 years in contract duration given his age. Again, I could easily justify something like 5 years and $60-65M from the Sox perspective. Anything more and I’d pass.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:00 PM) How many guys are peak 7 to 8 WAR players? I mean, there were only two hitters last year above seven. He’s most definitely going to decline over the life of the contract, but he’s starting from such a high point that he should hopefully remain valuable over the period of time I’m suggesting. Sure, there’s always a chance he completely falls off, but I don’t that’s probable and I don’t think we should be afraid of taking calculated risks. Let me ask you guys this, what does his potential again curve like exactly? ARod’s production dropped off pretty dramatically after his age 32 season. He was still a good player for another 5 years but nowhere near his peak and he was starting from another level above Donaldson. Why would you expect even more from Donaldson? And yes, I am assuming ARod was using PEDs into 2013 but his performance had already dropped off quite dramatically after 2007 when he was 32.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. Not just beating them but beating them by a wide margin considering 2019 is his age 33 season and 2023 is his age 37 season...find it hard to believe he will put up that type of WAR during that timeframe. More likely he accumulates a WAR of 12-15 during that timeframe and now you’re exceeding $10M per WAR. Not great value imo. Let’s see how he does this year first.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 03:28 PM) That could end up being his best offer. I just don't know how many other teams need a 3B or could potentially be done rebuilding in a year. Yea, who else is really going to offer more than that? Maybe there will be a surprise team but heck we are already a week into spring training and it appears his market is declining not improving. For that type of contract, I just don’t see a real good reason for the Sox to pass unless he wants an opt out after either of the first two seasons.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:49 PM) Aging curves aren't always accurate. I bet you wouldn't have had Jose Abreu putting up the numbers he put up and a 4.1 WAR last year. He was a below average player. Now people want him to sign an extension. And yet many want to sign guys like Donaldson (who is 3 years older and not a FA until next offseason) or Harper/Machado to a 10 year contract?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:56 PM) Again -- it isn't 2015 anymore. Those players are older, and they'll be older still when we are competitive. Last year, in a bounceback season, he was a 114 wRC+ hitter, good for 107th in the major if you filter by minimum 50 plate appearances, or apparently 60-something if you filter by whatever minimum Dick Allen filtered by, which I guess is probably "Qualified for Batting Title." Would you scramble to add the roughly 100th best hitter to the middle of your order? Ok, now, take that answer and remember that next year doesn't matter in terms of overall record. Two years from now will matter possibly, if things go REALLY well next year. The year after that must matter. So we're taking that 100th best hitter form this year, pushing him 2-3 years into his 30's, and NOW placing him in the middle of oour order. Where will he rank then if ages normally? Today, he is a roughly average player overall. Those guys are ALWAYS available to sign. Every offseason you can sign average players at market rates.Why not, instead, sign a 2-win 115 wRC+ guy when we actually need him, instead of now and hoping he defies the aging curve AND that we also correctly guessed that he'll play the position we'll need in two or three years? And that his aged hasn't had him move off of that position? They aren’t “scrambling to sign” him. The whole premise of this debate is that he is available at a discounted rate. And by discounted, I mean 5 years/$60MM. In that case, yes, I would consider signing him now at age 29 even if he doesn’t perfectly align with the Sox forecasted competitive window.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:31 PM) No, I don't consider #6 to be "middle of the order." But an argument where a team can be so good offensively that they still made the playoffs despite a mediocre performance by a guy in the #6 hole is not an argument that we should sign a mediocre guy for the #6 hole. What’s your definition of middle of the order then? #3-#5? Either way whether he is #5 or #6 it’s semantics and I don’t know why everyone keeps labeling him mediocre? Apparently the Royals won a title with a bunch of mediocre players then. Not many here too high on Hosmer or Moose and both guys were regulars in the “middle of the order” during their 2015 championship season just over two years ago.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:16 PM) He’s a 5 or 6 WAR player to begin with. Even with a normal decline curve he’d be significantly more valuable player than Moustakas. I get having concerns over signing guys in their 30’s, but Donaldson is one of the best hitters in baseball. Unless my scouts have reason to believe he’ll fall off a cliff, I’m all for signing him assuming the right price. It’s debatable that Donaldson will be a much more valuable player than Moose from 2020 thru 2024. Even still, he’s also going to be much more expensive than Moose on an AAV basis assuming Moose’s market continues to tank.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:05 PM) I fully believe they are prepared to offer Machado a $300M+ contract. Will they ultimately out-bid everyone else? Probably not, but it’s worth a shot. And I’m a huge Donaldson fan and feel like he’s a great (and more realistic) fall-back option. I like Donaldson but he turns 33 later this year. That’s a guy without question that will be in serious decline within the 2020 (age 35 season) thru 2024 (age 39 season) contention window.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:59 PM) Settling for league average players a year or two early is even worse. There are alternatives in the likely even we miss out on Machado. I’m still struggling to understand why so many people want to go with plan B (or C/D for that matter) before we even attempt plan A. It’s not so much that we want them to go with plan B but that we are holding realistic expectations on how they will proceed given past ownership decisions. I have no doubt they are going to be bringing guys in and paying a hefty sum to do so, I’m just highly skeptical they will extend themselves to the top 3-5 guys in any FA class (esp when those guys demand upwards of $150M).