JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 04:22 PM) Because it is very easy to keep track of how many games a bullpen blew the game. Whether you want to use conventional means like blown saves, or (preferably) you lean more towards analytics and look at WPA+ and WPA-, shutdowns and meltdowns, WAR, FIP, etc, you can tell how good or bad your bullpen was and how much work is necessary. I also don't believe that a bad bullpen leads to overextending starters. A bad bullpen leads to position players pitching and different relievers being called up from the minors with little to no effect whatsoever on the starting pitchers. The Sox will be running out 3 or 4 very young starters in their rotation. Sox will try to push these guys to get that extra inning or two if the bullpen is a hot mess as expected. I'm not sure that's a good thing with these arms in the rotation being as young as they are.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 03:59 PM) If you can't see that your bullpen is trash, then you are not paying attention. But how will one judge whether a team is "close" to competing if they only win 70 games, largely because the bullpen is awful? A bad bullpen also lends itself to overextending the starters in an effort to compensate. I'm not sure that's a good thing for the rebuild either.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 03:49 PM) $45 million is always a concern. There is no need to waste that kind of money for no damned good reason. But it's not for no reason. It's to build an average to above average bullpen over the next few years rather than a complete dumpster fire. How will we even know if this team is "close" to competing if the bullpen is complete trash the next two years?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 03:31 PM) 5X9 = $45 million per season. That is a still a lot of money in 2017 MLB. You are focusing on the AAV only and not the total contract cost. Over the next few years the AAV is FAR less of a concern for the White Sox than 3-5 years from now when those superstars that you are contemplating signing will be making big money.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 03:25 PM) 4 or 5 guys at 6 to 9 million dollars per year is a whole of money for an organization that is obscenely loaded with high end pitching arms anyway. The top end of that number may well get us two superstar position players in 2019 free agency. Really? Like who? 5x9x3=$135MM. I don't think that amount will get us one superstar player let alone two.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 03:15 PM) Between Kopech, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Cease, Hansen, Dunning, Adams, Stephens, Guerrero, Clarkin, Puckett, Martinez, Florez, Burr, Hamilton, Davis, Diaz, Bummer, Danish, Burdi, Infante, Beck, Petricka, Fry, Hickman, Olsen, Comito, McCluure and Henzmen you have a ton of really high end arms. Even if you can get a full five starters out of that group, you have all of those kids to get a bullpen out of, or even a fraction of a bullpen out of. There are a lot of guys in that last who can go from 95mph on up, plus arms that can eat up innings and more. That is also without looking for any Don Cooper specials or other guys coming in future trades. I would much rather being paying 5-8 of those guys $500k a year, than anyone else $10 million per year. I mean yea that's a lot of names but you still have to fill out a rotation and an entire bullpen plus account for poor performance and injury risk. I don't feel as confident as you that with that list of players the White Sox will have an above average bullpen starting in 2019. How many of this year's playoff teams carried an entire bullpen of homegrown and inexpensive pitchers?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 03:17 PM) Yeah I think this is the "agree to disagree" point. Pitching carries a substantially higher injury risk than hitting, especially over a period of several years. Stockpiling pitching and building just has a way higher chance to blow up in your face than doing the same with position players. It's the same reason why all of the recent successful rebuilders have consciously focused on drafting and developing positional talent and then spending big on pitching as the final piece. I agree that Donaldson wouldn't make sense for us, but he doesn't really fit the profile of what I mentioned in the first place. He's an aging corner guy that has tremendous present value but little future value. Your younger, up-the-middle guys are definitely more expensive, as you said, but there's a good reason -- they're rare and (relatively) dependable. If you lock one of them up (say Machado for a pipe dream), you can check that very important box off your list of needs for the foreseeable future, and now focus on the much easier task of filling lesser roles in whichever manner is appropriate. It's like going into a game of Yahtzee with the Yahtzee square already filled -- you still have a bunch of holes to fill to win, but your chances are much higher having already taken care of the hardest one to find. I think sometimes we forget how much of this whole exercise is about managing risk. Any player can bust at any time for several reasons, and you need to avoid that bust long enough to get a whole bunch of pieces in place at once. In order to maximize our chances of success, we need to minimize risk whenever possible. Building a foundation using the only the most stable elements allows us to maintain flexibility to spend on the more volatile elements closer to the time when we need them. You maximize your chances to win a game of hot potato by holding onto the ball for the least amount of time. If pitchers are the most likely asset to blow up, then our strategy for minimizing that bust potential is to minimize the amount of time we have to hold onto them hoping they don't blow up. For this very reason, I believe signing 4 or 5 second tier relievers best manages risk/reward. You hope that 2 or 3 of these guys pan out and of those that don't it's not a huge loss at $6-9MM AAV over a 2 or 3 year term. What free agent position players are worth signing in the coming years that won't come at an exhorbinant cost and are realistic targets for the White Sox?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 03:04 PM) I'd rather throw $20 million at 4 guys who have been cut loose or released or injured in recent seasons than throw $100 million at those relievers this year. I could readily be talked into throwing big money at a reliever or two next offseason. My goal would still be to find this year's Swarzak/Morrow - someone who breaks out when they're put in the bullpen in their late 20s or early 30s. Much easier said than done

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 02:41 PM) Yes, we know it's a glaring weakness, but we also know that the roster very likely doesn't have enough to compete even if that weakness disappeared. I agree that adding players shouldn't all happen at once, but you have to look at each player/player type individually. Relievers have notoriously short windows of effectiveness and are the easiest commodity to purchase at any given time, so that's not the type of free agent you want to buy gradually. A relatively young position player at an up-the-middle position, or perhaps a position that is weak organizationally? That's a different story. But that relatively young position player at an up the middle position = big $$$. IMO one of the cheapest and easiest ways for the White Sox to become competitivd again given their current state is to invest in pitching, more specifically the bullpen. I'd rather throw $100MM at four relievers like Reed, Minor, Shaw, and McGee than $150MM at a 33 year old Donaldson for example.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 02:13 PM) It never seems like it, but those little things add up. We've seen this time run up against its spending walls several times. AN extra dead $8mm somewhere can make a big difference. I'm not saying Reed would necessarily be that guy, but if you start making moves LIKE these, you're going to run into one or two. It's just what happens to relievers, in general. And for what? A pretty generic above average reliever. Again, you can get that guy any year -- why not wait until you know that's how you want your money spent? Don't we already know the bullpen is the most glaring weakness on this roster? I don't think Birmingham or Charlotte are exactly overflowing with power bullpen arms either. I don't see how this weakness will be addressed internally. I guess my bigger issue is that I view rebuilding as a gradual process of which includes signing free agents over an extended period of time rather than waiting for that "exact" window of contention.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 02:11 PM) You also can't ignore the 4 win month, the still lack of a bullpen, nor the fact that we may well going into 2018 without 2017's two best hitters. So you agree the bullpen should be addressed then? And you really think the Sox are trading Avi and/or Abreu? I think that's a long shot.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 01:45 PM) For a guy that is going to give a last place team around 60 innings? It is a gigantic waste of money, when we have vastly superior arms in the system waiting to get sorted out at the major league level. Last place? The division is terrible after the Indians. No reason they shouldn't finish third or possibly better if the Twins fall back. For everyone writing off 2018, how many people picked the 2017 Twins to make the playoffs? Not saying it's likely but if you stabilize the bullpen you never know. From September 1 on after trading nearly half the roster in the previous two months, the White Sox were 15-15. And this was with a garbage bullpen and no Eloy or Kopech.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 01:31 PM) The highest contract in White Sox history was $68 million for Jose Abreu. Only 3 MLB teams have not signed a larger contract than that. This is a great point. Posters are worried about spending $36MM for a closer but have illusions of "saving" money to make a big splash next offseason? Who exactly are they thinking the Sox will sign next year as a "big" free agent that will cost less than $75MM even? Even with all their prospects, there are a lot of holes on this roster now and in the coming years. I don't see management going all in on a Donaldson or Keuchel type let alone Machado or Harper. Even with all their savings, I think they will sign 4 or 5 guys in the $15-50MM range before they sign a single player in the $75-250MM range.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 01:20 PM) With the arms we have in our system the last thing I am worried about is getting eight figure bullpen arms on long term contracts. Odds are 100% that some of the arms we are looking at as starters now are going to wash out and will be our bullpen arms when we actually are competitive again. There is zero reason to rush into a (at best) second tier closer at those prices. That's your opinion and I have mine. I don't consider a 4 year $36MM contract a big commitment for a guy that should be a solid late inning bullpen piece for the next 4 years. He's only 28 turning 29 years old next month after all.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 01:08 PM) Yes. I'm positive of it. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/10...ertson.amp.html Isn't that what just about every free agent says when signing with a new team? Bottom line, money talks. If the White Sox offer Reed as much or more than the rest of the league there's a great chance he signs. This isn't a Carlos Beltran situation trying to grab a ring before hanging it up. In that type of situation I could see it being about more than the money.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 12:50 PM) Like who? The 2014 White Sox were not rebuilding. Look at the roster then and now. It's vastly different. They were coming off a 89 loss season in 2014. Do you honestly believe DRob thought he was coming to a contender?

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 12:45 PM) Why buy now when we do not expect to compete in 2018 though? There are relievers on Reed's level available every year, why not buy next offseason when we have a good idea of what we will need? Why wouldn't he go to a contender unless we overpay significantly? We need to face the fact that this will not be a splashy offseason whatsoever, expect bargain bin shopping. It generally takes a few years to build a strong bullpen. There is next to nothing to work with on the current depth chart. They are basically starting over. Why not start adding legitimate pieces now when the goal is to contend starting in 2019? Or does everyone expect to build an entire bullpen next offseason? Ideally, you lock in a proven closer now and then hope others emerge next year as solid 6-8th inning guys. If they don't, then you need to sign additional proven late inning relievers next year. They will probably need to add another 2 or 3 proven arms regardless. If they end up with 5 guys that can close after next season, great! Can never have enough late inning relievers, especially in the playoffs.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 12:36 PM) Reed is going to get offers from teams that will contend in 2018. There's no reason for him to want to sign with a rebuilding White Sox team that just traded their closer and setup guy 3+ months ago. Not even an overpay is going to bring Reed to the White Sox. Many said the same thing about David Robertson in 2014....

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 12:37 PM) He has other organizations he can close for, he is familiar with, other pitching coaches who he is familiar with, and teams that can win a title in 2018. Anything the Sox can offer, someone else can offer more of. Like who? Boston is set at closer. The Mets aren't contending in 2018. And I highly doubt the Diamondbacks (or Reed for matter) have any interest in reuniting considering the way their first run together went.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 12:24 PM) Bullpen arms of Addison Reed's quality are available every winter. No reason to buy now and burn the best year or two hoping they asset doesn't depreciate. Agree to disagree. I don't view next year as a waste for Reed on the Sox. Would be nice to have a steady bullpen arm at the back end to close games for a young team full of unknowns in the pen. If one of those unknowns emerges as a potential closer in the next couple years you can always slide Reed back to his setup role. 4 years/$36MM is not a large commitment by today's standards (assuming that's his price tag). Consider the White Sox traded 4 relievers just last season alone (Swarzak, Jennings, Robertson, Kahnle), there is plenty of room to sign a couple this offseason and a couple next. I don't think signing Reed this offseason precludes them from acquiring a couple more next winter.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 7, 2017 -> 12:09 PM) Let me spin that around and ask why Reed would want to sign here unless we overbid for him? Locked into the closing role for the next two years at a minimum, familiarity with the city, organization, and pitching coach, and prospects of winning a championship starting in 2019. I don't see why the White Sox wouldn't have as good of a shot as the next team if they match the highest bid. I'm guessing most contending teams (except perhaps the Cubs) view him as a setup man rather than closer. I think signing someone that can close games is the number one priority this off-season. Whether that's Reed, Swarzak, Morrow, Minor, Cishek or some combination of those guys I don't care. But it's demoralizing for a young team if you are constantly blowing leads in the late innings.

Even for a rebuilding team, there is nothing wrong with signing a guy like Addison Reed as their "premier" FA acquisition this off-season. Won't lose a pick and the commitment should be relatively small (4 years $36MM MLBTR prediction) for someone that can actually close games over the next few years. Right now they have a bunch of guys that are unproven or just bad (most fall in the just bad category). It can take a few years to build a strong bullpen anyways so why not start now? Especially if there are any plans to start competing in 2019/2020.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 6, 2017 -> 06:22 PM) Oh, I thought you meant Addy with the Reed and assumed he was a FA. Anywho, I don't want a utility outfielder. Throw Engel and Leury out in CF and see if one of them can hold the job, and Tilson's shattered body, Polo, May, and Willy Garcia give enough depth there that I don't see why we need the extra warm body, at least for 2018. Yea I'd give Gomez two years to bridge to Lubo. Hoping the white sox are competitive in 2019. I've seen enough of Engel, don't trust Tilson, and Gomez can platoon with Leury and the other OF in the meantime.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 6, 2017 -> 06:12 PM) 4 relievers? I'll buy that if we get a starter somewhere (I still expect rule 5). With Rodon likely on the shelf to start the season we need at least 1 more who can start. Even if guys are called up, there's innings for a guy who can start. 3 relievers and 1 CF/Util OF. Would be nice to have another vet for a couple years in the outfield as the young guys are working their way through the system and one that is also capable of playing CF.

Fine with me. Now sign Gomez, Reed, Swarzak, and McGee and I'm good.