JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 01:43 PM) So you want to trade everything but Sale & Quintana for a one year shot in 2019? Because Sale will be gone after that season. Why not just trade Sale? Is that one year window really worth what your forgoing in value today for Chris? If Chris keeps pitching like he has his entire career, he will have PLENTY of trade value come 2019 before he hits the open market.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 01:36 PM) But that's not a rebuild, that's just more retooling. And how does it help us maximize the three year window we have with Chris under control? You're punting at least the 2017 season by trading guys like Frazier, Melky, & Robertson and now have three big holes to fill before the 2018 season. If all goes well, which is unlikely for reasons listed numerous times, you have two seasons to compete before you lose Chris Sale for nothing. Does that really sound like a good plan to you? Again, this retooling nonsense has to end. Like Hahn said in the STH event, we aren't going to get better until we take a step back. More retooling is just delaying the inevitable. There are obvious risks when it comes to rebuilding, but they are far less than more half-ass retooling. Our track record over the past 10 seasons speaks for itself. Rebuilding doesn't necessarily require trading everyone of value from your current major league roster. If they unload everyone but Sale and Q, they sure as heck could afford extending Sale and Q if they wanted or they could go out and sign Manny Machado and Andrew McCutchen for true "all-in" seasons 2019 and beyond. I know that would be out of character for this franchise to sign high profile FA's but realize that there are more ways to rebuild than just tear the whole thing down to the ground until nothing is left. It is possible they would consider breaking character ahead of the new TV deal and possible sale of the franchise by landing a big star or two, I wouldn't rule it out completely especially if the rest of the payroll is already suppressed.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 01:10 PM) And what's that going to accomplish? Trading a bunch of guys coming off average to below average seasons with only a year left of control? How does that make us better exactly? That's just a half-ass rebuild and we'll end up losing Sale in three year with no chance of being competitive. You're so anti rebuild that you're not even making sense any more. It is possible to do a near-full rebuild by not trading Sale and Q but it would involve trading just about everyone else - Eaton, Abreu, Melky, Gonzalez, Frazier, Robertson, Lawrie. Should be able to get some really nice pieces for those guys. Sure it won't be the haul that Sale and Q would bring back but I would still expect 4 or 5 top 100 prospects that are near MLB ready (Eaton should bring back 2 by himself). Would be great to get another young high profile arm to round out that rotation. A rotation consisting of Sale, Q, Rodon, Fulmer, and Glasnow would be fun to watch even if the offense stinks while guys like Collins, Anderson, Tilson, Sanchez, Navarez, Engel and whoever else comes over via trade take their lumps. Certainly that would be one way to clear major salary ahead of the 2018-2019 FA class. Would likely clear enough payroll to be below $75MM heading into 2018-2019 free agency.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 09:06 AM) Make it simpler than this; ignore the wild card for a minute. Pretend it doesn't exist in your planning. Is that team, on paper, clearly better than the Indians? They'll have some people like Napoli regress yes, but that roster is still pretty loaded, they'll have money to spend after a playoff run too, they'll be looking at having Brantley back and Miller for the whole season, plus other guys farther along. Does that patched together White Sox team stand out relative to them? If not, then you're in "and if everything goes correctly we can compete for the wild card" territory, and that's not good territory to be in. Indians have followed four 90+ win seasons over the past 15 years with 85 wins or less the next season. MLB isn't NBA - nothing is guaranteed with the best team on paper. Field a competitive team and you have a chance. Also, since the advent of the second wild card, a wild card team has won the WS exactly the same number of times as the team with the best regular season record in baseball (once). Just get there and see what a rotation of Sale, Q, Rodon, and Fulmer can do. Playoffs are a crap shoot and pitching typically rules in October.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 09:16 AM) Isn't that what Dick just said Hahn said? If not this year than surely after next year ? S they still might give it a go next year . Probably will. Dick said the plan is to start the rebuild this offseason

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 08:46 AM) http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/yearly/payroll/ This is where the problems start....just with built in salary escalators, not even considering arbitration, they're up another $10 million. If you didn't have Robertson and Shields on the roster, it might have been possible...at least theoretically. That's not accounting for the likes of Miguel Gonzalez and Lawrie, either. I see ~$8MM in salary escalators and who knows how much in arb but as I said those can be partially offset by losing guys like Latos ($3MM), Turner ($1.5MM), Garcia ($2.1MM), Albers ($2MM), and with the emergence of Saladino, Lawrie and his $4.1MM salary look to be a good trade candidate for a young RP with Carlos Sanchez filling the utility IF role. I'd fill the 4th and 5th OF spots with a combination of Tilson, May, league min vets.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 07:21 AM) Boras is going to get $10 million for Wieters from SOMEONE. $15 million for Fowler for one year. $7 million for Volquez. $8 million for Moreland. Wieters replaces the Avila/Navarro combo. $10MM vs $6.5MM or $3.5MM increase. Fowler is not getting $15MM AAV. I could see $10-12MM AAV over 3 or 4 years. Let's say $12MM vs $5MM they paid AJ this year or $7MM increase. Even if Volquez gets $7MM his salary combined with Shields and Fulmer amounts to $18MM or $2MM less than what they paid Shields and Danks this year. Moreland isn't getting $8MM AAV unless maybe it's only a one year deal. Even then, consider Pedro Alvarez as a decent comp from last season and he got 1/$5.75MM last offseason. I think Moreland gets $6MM AAV over 3 years vs ~$1MM they spent for DH this year. Add it all up and that's an approx. $13.5MM increase. I realize other players are due a raise because of arbitration, etc. but still that only bumps total payroll up $15-20MM from this season, no where near $40MM. I would expect some of those increases to be offset by losing guys like Turner, Latos and Avi and not buying out guys like Albers.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 07:00 AM) Where are they going to get the money to add roughly $40 million in payroll for next year? How do you figure that adds $40MM to payroll?

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 11:29 PM) Who cares about any of this? We need to rebuild now because we're unable to build around our core assets before their value is completely gone. It doesn't matter if fans are miserable for the next few years or if attendance drops. All that matters is building a major league core and minor league pipeline that can lead to sustainable success. Sucks we're at this point and I don't look forward to the next few years of White Sox baseball, but it's the only option for us at this time. You would think all of our core assets are gone after next season with the way some people talk. They are all locked up thru 2019 at a minimum. Here's the other thing - the original core of Eaton, Sale, Q, and Abreu is growing as we speak by adding guys like Rodon and Anderson and hopefully in the near future Fulmer, Burdi, Collins, and Hansen. Can always retool by not only signing FA but also by trading expiring contracts like Melky, Robertson, Gonzalez, and Frazier too if they don't fit into the plan thru 2019. Sure they won't get the haul of a Sale or Q but did anyone think the Cubs would get the type of hail they got for expiring contracts Feldman or Shark/Hammel?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 12:41 AM) You're really betting a LOT on Wieters' quite questionable health history. And you're only going to get him to Chicago on a one-year deal, with the contracts of Melky and Frazier expiring next year, they're not going to commit to anything beyond 2017 in terms of veteran acquisitions, IMO. Fowler had an opportunity to play for the White Sox and Orioles last year, and chose the Cubs...he would be a nice get, but you can't just assume the same first half he had in 2016. He's actually tailed off quite a bit the second half of the season, and he's been far from a "sure thing" statistically (career-wise) until he doffed a Cubs' jersey. Next, there's at least a 50/50 chance Volquez ends up staying with the Royals, they control his rights for 2017 until they buy him out. Until he joined the Pirates/Royals, he was one of those talented enigmas like Puig that nobody knew what to do with and everyone was afraid of signing and also just as equally afraid of not signing him because of "potential/ability/upside." He does have a lot of wear and tear on his arm...it wouldn't be a shocker at all to see him as a 4.75-5.25 ERA pitcher with the White Sox (and yes, KC has been playing as the third best stadium offensively, duly noted). The main question would be whether he could give you enough innings to protect that bullpen. (Basically,the same exact role another former Royal was supposed to fill). Moreland's going to make more money than Morneau because of his relative youth (31), but anything is possible there offensively...he's just as likely to put up a 725-750 OPS as an 850. Just wonder the effect when you strip away some of the protection he gets in that Texas line-up. He would be expected to be the 4th or 5th best hitter for the White Sox, not a bottom of the order guy you just throw in there at the 7 spot. It's also far from clear whether Burdi will be in the big league bullpen (with Robertson traded) or starting in Winston-Salem or Birmingham instead. 1. Wieters will end this season with more than 400 PA and had nearly 300 last season. Every player comes with an injury risk but he appears to be past his Tommy John at this point. 2. In the past 6 seasons Fowler's lowest WAR has been 1.5 in his one season with the Astros. Even if he does what he did with the Astros that's still a big upgrade from Jackson/Schuck. 3. I still think the Royals cut Volquez lose but even if they don't it shouldn't be that hard to find someone to fill the #5 SP role (Fulmer?). Even an ERA in the 4.75-5.25 range as you suggest is a massive upgrade from what this team has gotten this season from that spot. The combined ERA of Danks/Shields/Ranaudo is just below 8! 4. Moreland is a career 765 OPS. Even if he dips to 725-750 that's still an upgrade over the combined numbers put up this season by Avi/Sands/Morneau. Also, I have him slotted in the 6 hole behind Fowler, Eaton, Abreu, Frazier, and Melky. He typically bats 6 or 7 for the AL best Texas Rangers.

QUOTE (captain54 @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 09:13 PM) Give the fans credit, complaining or non complaining, for at least populating boards like this and showing some interest. It's been a brutal run of baseball, and the complainers could very well have turned into who-gives-a-damners Eh, I think some fans like to complain for the sake of complaining and I'm not sure that's better than the who-gives-a-damners. Many Sox fans have stated that they have no interest in attending games with the current state of the team so I would expect that will turn around if they get the full rebuild they so desperately desire. I'll be curious to see what the attendance figures show, numbers don't lie...Wouldn't be shocked to see them dip below 20k/game if they roll out a couple consecutive seasons of 90+ losses after this year.

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 08:37 PM) They are certainly not going to miss what's resulted from the retooling approach of recent years. It's been a brutal several years lately to be a White Sox fan. Retooling led to the 2005 WS title. No one is happy with this team since 2012 but we will see what a full rebuild brings. I will just have zero patience for those complaining about terrible teams over the next few years if they decide to go the full rebuild route. And yes, they will be terrible. Looking at a rotation along the lines of Rodon, Fulmer, Shields, Danish, and Ranaudo over the next two years if they deal Sale and Q and don't get a major league ready SP in return. Going to be some really bad baseball on the South side. You think this is bad, try less than 70 wins bad over the next couple seasons. Hopefully they can complete the rebuild in less time than it has taken the Twins...

QUOTE (captain54 @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 07:44 PM) Hahn himself at the deadline said that an offseason moving of players made more sense mainly cause teams are less likely to move established major leaguers at the deadline, that are in contention So if things don't work out again in 2017, push the rebuilding back another year, to 2018 The Sox are in a unique position this offseason, in a sellers market...the franchise has never been in this strong of a position to set the franchise up for years to come. And maybe not as many down years as you would think. Quite possibility the FO might just be better at this major overhaul thing. As has been mentioned, the sheer numbers of a haul they can accomplish could very well overshadow their scouting and talent evaluation shortcomings Time will tell. I'm just looking forward to very few complaining on these boards once they do move forward with the rebuild. I'm not sure what some people are going to do if they can't complain any more.

I'm gonna be so pissed if a Sale or Q trade is centered around Jackie freakin Bradley

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 07:00 PM) He said it without saying it. I am 100% certain. Mentioned pivot poins. Said there was one in 2007 and after 2012 and they got those wrong. Said if they did not rebuild after this year, with their contract situations, would have to after next. It I S going to happen. I was hoping they'd give it one more crack before starting the rebuild but I guess everyone here gets what they want now. Should see a surge in attendance the next few years since this is what everyone wants to see. Yippee another 5 years of sub .500 baseball

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 06:13 PM) That's still not going to be near enough. Cleveland and Detroit are #3 & 4, respectively, in league offense this season, while the Sox remain towards the bottom at #12. You are adding Wieters as an upgrade at catcher. Ok, but his sparkling .683 OPS isn't going to put much of a dent in reducing that gap between the Sox and their two main division rivals on offense. Who else are you bringing in that will close that gap and help stifle those who believe a rebuild is in order? Moreland? Still coming up a bit short there, I'm afraid. Similarly, with Cleveland having superior pitching overall to that of the Sox, and Detroit arguably a notch or two higher, how does Volquez and his 1.47 WHIP improve our chances to compete with those two teams? Remember, it's not about upgrading from the garbage we saw this year. It's about upgrading to a point that puts us in a position to win the division and/or compete for a wildcard. I'm afraid the addition of Volquez and return of Petricka and Putnam doesn't get us close to those other two teams, either. In other words, you are far overrating the current roster, and underestimating the extent to which the quantity and quality of upgrades to the team would need to be for the Sox to compete for the postseason next year. See post #270 in this thread Also much of the upgrade at catcher with Wieters is primarily due to his defense not his offense as you continue to suggest.

QUOTE (captain54 @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 05:48 PM) Players that can, according to your standard, magically transform the Sox into "a team that can absolutely compete for a play off spot" And I don't mean jumping over 5 or 6 teams and 5 or 6 back of WC 2 for the duration of the year. So you think replacing Navarro/Avila with Wieters, Schuck with Fowler, Shields/Danks/Ranuado with Volquez, Avi/Morneau with Moreland, and Albers/Kahnle/Ynoa with Burdi/Putnam/Petricka will have little to no impact on the number of wins next season? That's an interesting thought. I happen to think that those additions could result in as many as 10 additional wins and a total in the upper 80s, which absolutely positions them to be a playoff contender. Sure I will admit that a lot has to go right but if it doesn't then tear it down in July and sell off anything of value not in the mid-long term plan. I feel it's a very prudent approach.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 04:42 PM) Matt Latos made a huge impact for four starts... I'd be curious to see what his definition is. Did Indians fans think adding Napoli (age 34) and Davis (age 35) would add "anything of impact" coming into this season? Did Rangers fans think Ian Desmomd (the guy that no one else wanted) would have this type of impact (ie. outproducing Gordon, Upton, and Cespedes)?

QUOTE (captain54 @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 04:11 PM) well, let's put it this way.. the kind of payroll that is required to acquire anyone of any impact…. not impossible but unlikely.. What's your definition of "anyone of any impact"?

QUOTE (captain54 @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 03:39 PM) The biggest hole of all in your argument, dude….is that JR is gonna all of sudden magically add payroll.. not gonna happen... How do you know this?

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 02:49 PM) The "throw anything against the wall and hope it'll stick" approach? Sure, it sounds familiar. It's been happening for quite some time with Williams and Hahn at the helm. Great way to build a team capable of sustainable winning, eh? I did not agree with signing Rollins, Latos, and Avila/Navarro this past offseason. Would have much preferred signing Desmond and Fowler to 3 year deals and someone like Fister to a 1 or 2 year deal while sticking with Flowers for another year once Wieters accepted the QO. I would still give Fowler a 3 year contract this offseason but it's even harder now because they likely won't have a protected 1st pick or a comp pick for losing shark. I think that's where the front office blew it by not truly going all in last offseason. I'd still like to see them go for it this offseason by signing the before mentioned vets that have shown the ability to succeed in the AL and are still producing this year at a much higher level than our current options at C, CF, #5 SP, etc. Still have to be strategic in these signings can't just willy nilly sign whoever is left at the end of the offseason. But again this is tied to payroll constraints so JR needs to open the checkbook a bit wider than he did last offseason if wants the "all in" approach.

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 12:56 PM) They did do a good job at the rebuild both times they did it during the times you referenced, and to use Reinsdorf speak, they got from Point A to Point B. Where they came up short was getting to Point C, but that's not what we are talking about here. We are not at Point B right now, so what I'd personally like to see is the effort to do the Point A to Point B exercise again, and then deal with getting to Point C when the time comes. Right now, I really don't know at what point this team is at all. Seems stuck somewhere in the middle, quite honestly. And still the only baseball championship that either side of town has witnessed during our lifetime is the one following an offseason of patching obvious holes at catcher, second base, right field, fifth starter, and bullpen with mid-tier free agents and trades. Sound familiar? I think this whole discussion goes back to how far away one thinks this roster is from being a contender. I happen to think filling the obvious holes in the 25-man roster with productive players will result in a competitive team. As much as people keep saying it, last offseason was not "all in." If anything, that was a "stand pat" approach. What was their most expensive signing? Austin Jackson for 1 year at $5MM? I'm advocating signing 4 guys that exceed that type of contract but also don't reach the level of a Cespedes or Encarnacion - more in line with the 2014/2015 offseason approach because I believe the Sox have less holes to fill now than they did in 2014.

and for those thinking mid-tier free agent signings never work out just take a look at the Indians this year. They aren't nearly as good without the free agent signings of Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli.

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 11:38 AM) The irony here is that you are willing to trust this front office with a job that they have a poor established track record on, i.e., retooling, but are unwilling to trust them with a job like rebuilding for which we actually don't know how good they'd do at such a thing. It's not ironic at all. Would you agree that missing on the prospects involved in a Sale/Q package is much more detrimental to the long term future of the franchise than missing on a 2-year FA deal for someone like Moreland or Volquez? In one case, you no longer have Sale/Q and a bunch of crappy prospects/major leaguers. In the other case, you still have Sale/Q and a bunch o crappy prospects/major leaguers. If you are going the total rebuild option you better be damn sure you have the best front office and scouts in place to make those decisions - do you think we do? It's ironic that anyone thinking a front office that has failed with previous trades and FA acquisitions will excel in a total rebuild. That makes no sense to me. Sign a few mid-tier free agents this offseason, a new manager, and see if it comes together. If it's still broken come mid-late June then there better be a clean out of the front office and let the new front office start the rebuild process in late July by unloading Melky, Frazier, Gonzalez, and Robertson. They can even wait until the following offseason to trade Sale and Q if they don't get blown away at the deadline. Those guys are under team control thru 2019 for goodness sake.

QUOTE (captain54 @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 09:40 AM) Now you're all over the place. You don't trust the front office, but yet you're on board with them retooling with basically the same approach as has been exhibited over multiple seasons. Mix and match a bunch of middling, serviceable players. What? Retooling with guys like Wieters, Moreland, Volquez is not rocket science. These guys are known commodities and have shown they can succeed in the AL. They are also guys that will not require excessive long term, high dollar commitments that can make or break the future of the franchise. Trading all of our vets for a bunch of prospects is something else altogether. If we are going that route, I'd prefer to do it with a different front office. If you screw that up you really can break the franchise much worse than it is currently broken. How well has the rebuild worked for the twins since 2010? They are still 2-3 years away from fielding a competitive team in the best case scenario, which is still no guarantee. Not all can't miss prospects turn out to be stars - just ask the twins about their one time #1 overall prospect in baseball Byron Buxton. MAYBE he will be an all star by the team he reaches free agency but MAYBE he will be a fourth outfielder too.