JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 05:12 PM) 4 straight years of sub .500 to championship? That would be....impressive Difficult? Yes. Impossible? No. There's a lot of parity in the AL right now. Just look at the wild card standings. Coming into this season, who thought the Rangers were a legitimate WS contender? 1 of 31 "experts" picked them to win the ALCS. Now they have the best record in the league and are the favorite to win the ALCS. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/page/seaso...ons-2016-season

QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 02:24 PM) They'll come home that last week of the season vs Rays and Twins and go 6-1. 11 or 12 seems 90% at this point. I'd say the next 4 games will be quite telling. If they go 1-3 in Minnesota, the #10 pick is absolutely within reach.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 02:18 PM) I really don't think that is enough, it may get us to .500. Nice defensive upgrade at C, but likely no offensive upgrade at all, and a heavy white sox likelihood of a historically bad offensive season from Wieters. Moreland projects as worse than what we're getting from Morneau now. Hoping to keep a .780 OPS from DH? Likely it declines in age 31 season. Fowler - True upgrade, but decline risk in age 31 season. Add to that likely sophomore difficulties from Anderson and an almost certain decline from Melky, and that's the same team we have now: One that relies on average players to be above average and above average players to be extraordinary. You do realize majority of the DH at-bats this year were given to guys like Avi and Sands before Morneau arrived correct? I don't know what the Sox have gotten out of the DH spot this year but my guess is somewhere around an OPS of 700. Moreland is at 785 this year and 765 career so that's a considerable upgrade. Fowler is a huge upgrade from Jackson/Shuck and Wieters is probably a wash but defensive upgrade. Why is it a sure thing that Anderson slumps and Melky regresses while Abreu, Eaton, and Frazier don't improve? I think that's a league average offense on paper and that's all the Sox need to be a playoff contender with their pitching.

QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 02:06 PM) So the play is to pseudo compete for the next few years until anything of value has been sapped of its worth. That should work out well. We can ditch that pesky 1st round pick in 2017 as it wont be protected and get some 30ish NL player to take us to the promised land. When was the last time we had a winning record against our division again. I remember the typical formula to win a division is to actually beat divisional opponents. So whats the plan to address that. Sprinkle some dust on what we have and hope it gets better. Or run a few plan B's out there after the Plan A's sign elsewhere. Its simple. We dont have a plan. We just roll the dice and hope that one time we wind up with the correct amount of momentum, luck and regression from the rest of the pack. I wouldn't rule out a protected 1st round pick just yet. Still a lot of divisional games to play in September and 2 games in Philly.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 01:37 PM) This part stands out to me. The white sox are nowhere near a great team. What is your plan to get them there? To be a great team they would likely need a top 5 total payroll. To be a good team next year I have already suggested signing Fowler, Moreland, Wieters, and a reliever. Also move Shields to mop up/middle relief to make room for Fulmer in the rotation. Hopefully Burdi comes up next season and pitches well from the onset combined with the healthy return of Putnam/Petricka and signing of one free agent the bullpen should be much improved. I don't think any of those moves are far fetched. Fowler - CF Eaton - RF Abreu - 1B Frazier - 3B Melky - LF Moreland - DH Lawrie/Saladino - 2B Wieters - C Anderson - SS Sale, Q, Rodon, Gonzalez, Fulmer

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 01:17 PM) Not really, your contention is they will be highest payroll when they have to keep their cheap talent, replying to my comment asking if we really think the reason cubs are a playoff contender is Jason Heyward and Jon Lester. They are 35 million of that salary, remove them and they are 13th in league. I say that, because they decided to splurge to make sure they were over the top. But their team could easily be playing Soler in OF and developing. They have an infield of rizzo, bryant, russel, baez and zobrist, did they NEED zobrist? No, but it's nice to have. All of the "acquire young talent moves" put them in a position to be a playoff team regardless. They had payroll to push them over top. If the sox got 5 years of playoff teams but couldn't afford the players before FA and needed to sell them, i'd feel in much better position than holding onto players, paying for average 30+ vets, failing, trying to sell them, getting little back because they are old, be in 4th place. The goal is to acquire as much talent as possible. The white sox have a good amount. How will they get what they need to compete with the top 10 teams in league? FA Trades Draft Draft is slow. FA is expensive. Trades we don't have minor league talent to acquire top talent. This is why people advocate for selling. If it turns out that we are going to get a 200 mill budget, then I say GO FOR IT. But we know we aren't, as seen by: Matt Latos Austin Jackson Jimmy Rollins Instead of Dexter Fowler We were great though letting the market "come to us" The Cubs are already top 5 in total payroll. Remove Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, Fowler and Lackey from their team (free agents the Sox couldn't afford to sign with the exception of Fowler) and yes they are still a good team but no where near a great team.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:58 PM) You are talking about sustaining an annual playoff team, not becoming one. isn't that what we are discussing here? building a playoff team that can be sustained over a 4-5 year stretch?

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:47 PM) So like the last few years when we just stand pat at the deadline? We can play that game again next year too. sure, but until we do I'm holding off on criticism re: trading Q and Sale

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:41 PM) Lawrie, Frazier and Melky are free agents and will walk away with the Sox receiving little to no compensation. Sale and Q have one less season of control, diminishing their trade value. Free agent options are extremely limited this season, which raises the value of all MLB level assets with very few options on the open market. This is the optimum season for a rebuild given market factors. Conversely, this is going to be a very difficult offseason to add to a team given the constrained market. Then if you are out of the race next July, trade them then. Problem solved. If you are in the race then good, that means the team is playing well.

It's interesting that all teams within the top 15 in total payroll aside from LAA are playoff contenders this year while only 2 teams in the bottom 15 are contenders. Payroll matters. Reason why I wish there was a hard cap in MLB.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:30 PM) The Cubs have 10 players with 2+ WAR seasons. Three of them were free agents, two were draft picks (both top 10), and the remaining five were acquired via trade. Why can't we take the Cubs' path? Even with potential downturns in attendance, we have enough fixed income to support a $90M+ payroll and could definitely be players in the epic 2018/19 free agent class. see post #91

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:16 PM) Do we feel the cubs are that much better because of Jason Heyward or Jon Lester? Even without them they'd be a great team, they have players like Soler being benched to play them. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/ Already #5 in total payroll and will be cracking the top 3 within the next couple years as guys like Bryant, Hendricks, Russell, etc. hit arbitration and if they plan on keeping their ace pitcher after next year. Yes it does make a difference.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:20 PM) The Cubs didn't start their rebuilding until 2012, they were simply a bad team "going for it" in 2010 & 2011. Their rebuild took three years to complete. The same applies to the Astros, who started in 2011 and took four years to complete. These are your comps for the White Sox, especially if we sell our cost-controlled talent. I hate the idea of throwing away three or four seasons as much as the next guy, but I hate the idea of being stuck in MLB hell another 10 years even more so. But again what's the big rush? Why not go for it again next year and move those guys after next year if it doesn't work out?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:16 PM) There are a whole lot of people who seem to believe that the Sox can take the Cubs path. IMO, they are wrong. The Indians are a much better comparison because of financial limitations. Despite their success in 2013, their "rebuild" really started back in 2009 and is just now coming to fruition. They have the potential to be a perennial playoff contender for the next 3-4 years. I still see no problem with waiting until after next season to consider a Sale or Q trade. What's the big rush? With Frazier, Lawrie, Melky, and Gonzalez all set to hit the free agent market after next season that would be the appropriate time to trade Sale and/or Q in hopes of competing again by 2019/2020.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:10 PM) And in addition to their rebuild, they also have a fan base that afforded them a high level of attendance during their rebuild which allowed them to spend something like half a billion dollars in new contracts to supplement that rebuild. We don't have that luxury. People are fixated on the Cubs rebuild but the Sox will never rebuild or spend like the Cubs have in their rebuilding process. If there is any team for the Sox to model a rebuild after it should be the Indians. They have even less financial flexibility and still put out a title contender this year after a few years of shrewd moves including trades, lower tier free agent signings, and good drafting.

Why is everyone in such a hurry to trade Q and Sale? Is it because you fear they will get injured next season? I see nothing wrong with "going for it" again next year and if it doesn't work out unloading one or both at the end of the year as well as guys like Frazier and Melky at the deadline if they are already out of the race by then.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 09:54 AM) Yes. The Cubs will offer him a QO. Geez his agent really screwed up on that deal. I assume he won't accept the QO, yet again diminishing part of his appeal as a FA.

Can Fowler be offered a QO if he declines the mutual option for next season? I didn't think so but I could be wrong.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 09:28 AM) My interest in spending big begins and ends with Encarnacion. He turns 34 this winter and I fear is due for a Bautista-like drop off in the next couple years.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 09:08 AM) So they're willing to spend another $125-175 million on, let's say, Cespedes and Ramos...? We'll instead end up with something like Rasmus, Wieters and a veteran bullpen guy and hope that everything goes right and nobody gets injured. It just doesn't make sense since they don't have any assets to trade that won't come from the big league club. Fulmer and Adams have lost considerable value. Trading the likes of Cabrera and Frazier won't move the needle. Maybe Robertson for salary relief, but that leaves Burdi, Jones and Jennings as your three best relievers. They'll probably try to sell Tilson as the permanent solution in CF, which will be as annoying as hearing Avi Garcia's name anywhere in connection with 2017. If they go for that strategy, maybe they try to bring in Kendrys Morales for one year to replace Morneau as DH (even though Abreu should be there) instead of bringing in a name outfielder. Pass on Ramos. I'm pulling for Fowler, Wieters, Moreland, Jensen. Going to have to overpay for Fowler and Jensen but Wieters and Moreland should be relative bargains. Fowler - CF Eaton - RF Abreu - 1B/DH Frazier - 3B Melky - LF Moreland - 1B/DH Lawrie/Saladino - 2B Wieters - C Anderson - SS On paper that at least appears to be a league average offense which combined with great starting pitching and hopefully good bullpen should be a playoff contender.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Aug 31, 2016 -> 04:17 PM) To expand, because beating up on James Shields is one of my favorite pastimes: If you replace his 7.16 ERA in 81.2 innings with a 5.92 ERA (chosen because it is the ERA of the worst qualified starter this season, Anibal Sanchez [shields' yearlong total of 5.86 is second]), the team starters' ERA moves from 6th to 3rd (4.22 to 4.09). If you replace it with a 4.84, the number that Sox fans politely accepted from John Danks following his injury, it would move the Sox comfortably into 2nd place at 3.98. Latos was bad but didn't really move the needle much - strip him away and the team number drops 0.03. Shields is a calamity. Remarkable. No matter how one slices it, the rotation is good with the potential to be great if a guy like Fulmer supplants Shields in the rotation and posts respectable numbers (low to mid 4 ERA). Improve the pen and sign Fowler, Weiters, and Moreland (none of which will cost a pick) and that team has a chance to compete. Wouldn't break the bank either.

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Aug 31, 2016 -> 01:29 PM) One of the best 1-2 starters and probably the best contracts to go along with it. Instead of the high risk blow it up for prospects from an organization with questionable scouting and development, use money on hitters. I think we are closer to contending than pretending. Sale, Q, Rodon, and Gonzalez, that's a decent rotation. A better manager, pen, with the ability to score 4 runs a game puts you there. Take away some injuries, Robin's managing, and the leads blown by the pen this team would be closer to the wildcard. That rotation is better than decent. It's one of the best in the AL. Think about how poorly the bullpen has performed this year and yet the White Sox still have the fifth lowest team ERA in the AL. I have to imagine they have a top 3 ERA for starting pitchers. Can someone pull this data? Improve the pen substantially next year and they have arguably the best pitching in the AL.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 28, 2016 -> 08:45 PM) This conversation is silly. In the past 15 years, only 3 times has the team with the best regular season record won the World Series. (Ironically, two of those were Red Sox) The Cubs are the best team in baseball, but anything can happen in the MLB Playoffs, especially with a best of 5 series thrown in there, potentially against Kershaw twice. That's why I like when Theo originally said that his goal is to build a playoff contender year after year. Baseball is too fickle to try and build a one-time champion, give yourself as many chances as possible in the playoffs. (The 2005 Sox did the one-time thing, but the last ten years have shown us differently.) You mean the same Clayton Kershaw with a career postseason ERA of 4.59? I'd be more worried about a potential first round matchup with the Mets or Giants if I'm the Cubs. Also, I know this is all hypothetical but what would the Cubs do in a division like the AL East? Positive they wouldn't have 80+ wins right now. They are feasting off the NL bottom feeders. Against teams over .500 they have a record of 35-27. Not exactly shredding the competition against playoff caliber teams. 18-15 against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Aug 27, 2016 -> 04:42 PM) What other Chicago team deserves any type of praise other than the Cubs? The Sox, Bulls and Bears are burnt cheese toast. I said the Cubs are the best team in baseball and heavy favorites. I never said they were a lock to win the World Series. Why wouldn't you take 4:1 odds on the best team in baseball and heavy favorites to win the World Series? I mean those are great odds for a team in their position no? Do you think they are going to win the World Series? It's a simple question. If the answer is yes why not take the wager?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 27, 2016 -> 01:09 PM) You have no problem praising them here or any other non Chicago team. Why not put your money where your mouth is? That's a good question DA. I think I know the answer. As I already said about Deadpool at least we won't have to hear "see I told you the Cubs were going all the way" line from J4L because he doesn't believe it enough to take the bet. Put up or shut up.