JUSTgottaBELIEVE

how flawed is WAR when Abreu is at 4.0 and guys like Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon are 4.5+? I realize Abreu is hurt by his baserunning/defense but his offense is SO much better than those three guys that there's no way their baserunning/defense superiority should overcome Abreu's immense run producing capabilities. Are the White Sox really only 4 wins better with Abreu rather than a guy like Garrett Jones playing 1B?

QUOTE (JoshPR @ Aug 3, 2014 -> 05:40 PM) Wait , wasn't it your pretty stats who said that? I think sabermetrics post moneyball has gone too far. There are fans out there now that think they would be able to build a team/manage a team based on numbers alone. Yes numbers are important but so is having a feel for the game and knowing your players. Even if a guys "periphial" numbers look good, sometimes it's clear they just don't pass the eye test. Belisario has been one of those guys that just hasn't passed the eye test all year regardless of what the advance metrics were saying.

I'd say Flowers is seeing the ball well right now

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 01:21 PM) I played a lot of baseball, all the way through American Legion, and I'm NOT arguing that you don't feel better sometimes than others. I AM arguing that we cannot predict the length and continuation of these "hot streaks." They have random lengths and random endings. So it doesn't help us to say "call him up while he's hot" because it's just as likley that his hotness would end that very day as it is that it would continue for one day or two days or three days. Similarly, you could call a guy up when he's cold and he could start a hot streak the very next day. If you do truly CHANGE something, it isn't a hot streak, it's a breakout; a revelation. And you've set a new level of performance and will now have hot and cold streaks based on that new level. We can't really tell the difference by reading box scores -- we need the coaching staff to say "Yes, I told him to change his approach. He has now succeeded in that and is seeing succes as a result. He is ready to take this approach to the next level." We'll agree to disagree because while you might not be able to predict the length of hot streaks, I do think there is a greater probability of a minor league callup experiencing immediate success at the major league level if he is coming in hot and confidence is high compared to struggling and confidence low.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 09:01 AM) I'm not saying Marcus doesn't have anything left to learn, I'm just saying that him having a hot ten days is not the sign that he's ready. I think there's something to his confidence maybe being up if he's called up when he's hot, but the problem with "when he's seeing the ball well" is that guys are in that mode until they suddenly aren't, and there's just no way to tell when that will stop. It's literally no more likely a "hot" guy will get a hit in his next at bat than a "cold" guy, assuming of course that you control for talent. Now, if a guy has suddenly mastered something he's been working on, an improvement at the plate can be a by-product of course, but that's what you need the evaluators for, because they know what he's trying to do and they'll know why he's successful or not. Simply that he's been "seeing the ball well" doesn't translate even from day to day, let alone from league to league. Next time he gets hot though, I don't think there's any way we will be able to tell if it's because of a mechanical or approach tweak. We just have to trust the staff. Anybody that's played the game beyond little league would disagree with this. Seriously. The mental/confidence aspect of hitting is huge. When you're going well and confidence level is high, you truly are seeing the ball better. When I was in a funk, I knew I wasn't seeing the ball well and more often than not knew I was in for a rough game at the plate. I often knew this during BP prior to the game. The mental component of this game is very important, especially when it comes to hitting. Just take a look at Flowers right now. Sometimes you change one thing (start wearing glasses), have success, and you start to attribute this change to your success (increased confidence) even if it didn't. Now maybe the glasses really have improved his vision and his success is a direct result of this physical change but more than likely it just comes down to his increased confidence level resulting from the success he experienced when he started wearing the glasses. I think we would all agree that there is a greater probability Flowers gets a hit in his next at-bat today than any at-bat in June or the first week in July. It sounds silly but there's a reason hitting is so cyclical and guys often experience extended hot/cold stretches. This isn't coincidence or as simple as saying his BABIP is unusually high/low through these stretches. The numbers guys like to think it is but typically there is a reason for stretches in which a hitter experiences a low/high BABIP and it's not just a matter of luck.

I should probably be more descriptive than the 30 mile radius parameter since technically parts of NWI are just within 30 miles of the loop. I guess 30 mile radius west and north of the loop and 15 mile radius south of it would work. that would make for a reasonable commute to both downtown as well as the northwest burbs for my wife

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 30, 2014 -> 10:32 AM) I would say the systems to avoid over there are East Chicago, Hammond, and Merrillville. Other than that, there are a lot of nice towns through that area. Depends on where exactly you want to be in relations to schools, train, interstate etc. I'm petty much ruling NWI out due to location. Anything within a 30 mile radius of the loop is fair game. Any suggestions?

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jul 29, 2014 -> 07:56 AM) Munster. First of all, Indiana's government and taxes are far, far less f***ed up than Illinois. So having narrowed the choices down to NW Indiana, Munster has by far the best public school system. Anyone else?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 29, 2014 -> 01:51 PM) This. And The Region is as close to downtown Chicago by train as most of the suburbs are. Closer in many cases. It is a fraction of what it costs to live in the City. definitely if we worked in the city or SW burbs ... but hard to get to anywhere else other than the city (which is already a bit of a stretch of a commute from NWI) or SW burbs so it really limits work options. I'm guessing that's one of the biggest reason RE is much more affordable in the NWI region

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jul 29, 2014 -> 11:09 AM) Property taxes may be similar, but income and sales taxes are a lot lower in NWI, plus like you said you can get more house for your money. Yeah, Addison may be a bit far to commute from there. It's been a while since I've driven the tri-state in the morning so I don't know how long that would take. NB Tri-State is pretty bad in the morning but SB in the afternoon is even worse. Particularly north of 55, once you're south of 55 it's not bad (typically) in either direction AM or PM

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jul 29, 2014 -> 07:56 AM) Munster. First of all, Indiana's government and taxes are far, far less f***ed up than Illinois. So having narrowed the choices down to NW Indiana, Munster has by far the best public school system. I never considered NW IN to be honest. Munster seems like a great option if you work in the south or SW burbs but unfortunately is too far south for us since my wife works in Addison and Elk Grove Village. That commute would be an absolute bear. Too bad it's not an option because we could definitely afford a bigger/newer home in that area, though property taxes appear to be surprisingly comparable to where I'm at now in terms of % of home value

and please provide a brief explanation as to why you recommend that suburb (i.e. great schools, good location, activities, restaurants, good investment, etc)

If you were picking a Chicagoland suburb to buy a home and raise a family, which one would it be?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Apr 9, 2014 -> 02:27 PM) I had TWO, and have some info for ya. First for comparison sake for you, our lot is a corner lot about 60 by 120, average house footprint, but a lot of garden landscaping. Overall not a very big lawn, but not small either. With a relatively small lawn, decided to give the electric a try - got a battery-power one from Home Depot, I forget the brand. Had a 30 day return policy, so I thought, might as well try. Price same as similar gas mower, less noise, no gas/oil, cheaper to run. Worked great first year - usually finished the lawn with about 30% of the battery remaining. Cutting job was OK, not the best I've seen, but just fine for me. Quiet, charged quick, lived up to expectations. Went to charge it back up after the first winter, did what you should do with stored batteries - ran it down a little, then fully charged it. Well, it did about a quarter of the lawn before it died. Figured it was the winter, so I charged it full again, let it sit, charged it full yet again, then tried it. Was even worse. Batteries were trashed after sitting for one frickin' winter. And of course, the mower has a 2 year warranty... except the battery, which is 1 year. Missed it by a month. Bought a new battery. Worked great at first, seemed just as good as it was when new. Later in the summer, started having trouble finishing the lawn. Did some interwebbing, says to keep the battery plugged in over the winter, so I did that. Next spring? Dead again, battery barely worked. Also by this point, after just two years of use, a couple plastic parts started acting funny, just not a quality build. Since the mower itself was still under warranty and it had other flaws, I managed to trade it in for a different brand electric, this one a Black and Decker (Home Depot was pretty good about this). That one I returned in a couple weeks because it couldn't finish the lawn on even the first shot! Finally gave in and bought a gas Honda mower, which has worked fantastically for 2 years. It's a great concept, but the batteries - both the OEM ones and the aftermarket ones from a different manufacturer - just don't last. I don't recommend it. ONE NOTE - These are the battery powered ones. Plug-in ones may be fine, I don't know, but those weren't practical for me. great info. that is exactly my fear. just like any other battery-powered device (cell phone. laptop, etc.), my fear is that it would start out fine but quickly lose capacity over time. didn't realize it would be that quick though!

need a new lawn mower. the old craftsman has seen its last days. contemplating an electric mower (cordless) rather than gas. read a lot on line about pros/cons and seems like they have come a long way in the past few years. I like the idea of not messing with gas, oil, pull cord, etc. but I'm still a bit skeptical about performance. anyone here have first hand experience?

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Jan 6, 2014 -> 12:10 PM) Clay Matthews, Casey Hayward, Brian Bulaga, Johnny Jolly, Jemichael Finley, Brandon Bostick, Jonathan Franklin, DuJuan Harris. Lot's of good players in that list. and probably the most significant of all, sam shields on the opening drive of the game. devon house is garbage and made crabtree look like TO in his prime. even despite your list, with shields in yesterday's game it changes everything

Is miles plumlee the real deal? His stats in college weren't overly impressive but he had two huge games to open this year. Considering picking him up in fantasy basketball in favor of varejao or faried (who appears to be on a time split with jj hicks on this year)

And the fact that the bills have no qb, not sure if that helps or hurts FJax

I'm leaning towards sproles since I think spiller will be more involved this week but FJax has been so solid thus far this season

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 13, 2013 -> 09:59 AM) PPR? Standard

Sproles @ NE or FJax vs. CIN?

QUOTE (TRU @ Sep 29, 2013 -> 08:30 AM) Ide play Nicks. The trend seems to be complain about not getting the ball and you get it a lot the next week. Wallace did it, Brown did it, now its Nicks turn. Well that figures bowe scores a TD. Damn should have gone with my gut on bowe, that KC secondary is just too tough for anyone not named Cruz

Bowe vs. NYG or Nicks vs. KC? Both bad options with Cobb on a bye week but I think one of these guys is due for a good game but I don't know which one.

QUOTE (hammerhead johnson @ Jun 8, 2013 -> 08:28 AM) That's adorable. I'll bet you're one of those dudes at the game chanting PAULIE! PAULIE! while he puts up a career WAR of 26. Couldn't even get close to Kent Hrbek. I bet you're one of those dudes that was waiting for the DRose "comeback" this year while he sat on the bench and played cheerleader all playoffs. That was sweet. Paulie was a part of and played a huge role in a Chicago team winning a championship. How many Chicago athletes can you say that about in the past 15 years outside of the Hawks?

QUOTE (Cerbaho-WG @ Jun 4, 2013 -> 07:55 PM) Valpo definitely had a tough loss against IU in game one. Their starter was very good, but Kowalczyk was overthrowing his sliders. Not really terribly surprised that they blew it, but having Clark hit the walk off homer was eye opening. To be fair, Austin Peay, even with their 16-game winning streak coming into the regional, wasn't that good. They had zero chance in both games against IU. I wasn't at the game but I read the same thing about the hanging sliders. Still, when a guy only gives up one run all season in something like 25 innings, you certainly don't expect him to blow a 3 run lead. As far as Peay, yes they certainly weren't a powerhouse but they did have an RPI of 39 heading into the tourney which is very respectable. They also had the longest active win streak in the nation (D1) heading into the tourney so they were a hot team. IU was simply more talented and obviously had no problem generating some offense against their pitching.