JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 01:45 PM) Of course it's a flawed statistic, but no statistic is perfect. It's also difficult to just assume that teams are going to remain the same record wise. The Sox I think would be - they could simply move Gillaspie over to 1B and they'd be sitting right around their same mark - but the A's then have to do something with Moss or Abreu and find a 3B, which cuts 5 positional runs from either's value due to the positional adjustment made in WAR. I strongly disagree that the Sox would have the same record with Donaldson instead of Abreu

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 01:13 PM) So there's two things making Donaldson seem more valuable. First is the defense, like we covered. A third baseman has much more control of run prevention - kind of. A really bad defensive 1B will have more negative value than anybody, because they can screw up just about every infield out. However, each play is measured against the "average" defender. The "average" 1B makes almost all the same plays that a great one does. That's not nearly as true of 3B and really not true of OF. Next is how good hitters are at a given position. The average 1B this year has a 111 wRC+ (was 110 last year). The average 3B this year is 101 wRC+ (was 97 last year). While in the recent past LF was a place to stash your guys with barely better than 1B defensive ability to get their bat in the lineup (average LF batter was as high as 110 wRC+ in early 2000s), today it's a place where the average LF bat is just an average bat (100 wRC+ this year, 99 last). On a side note, it interests me how poor the average DH is this year - 101 wRC+ compared to 110 wRC+ last year and a peak 120 wRC+ in 2002. So even disregarding how good he defends his position, Abreu is graded on a curve. wRC+ presumes that 100 is average. However, 111 is average for 1B. 101 is average at 3B. That means the expectation for Abreu's offense is 10% higher than a 3B and LF. 25% higher than SS! Another way to think about it is to look at it from the perspective of the non-1B. Look at Derek Jeter. His career WAR is 74.3. He's also a career negative value defensively as a shortstop, where usually bad shortstops end up with positive values just because of the position's difficulty. He has a career 120 wRC+. If you took away the positional adjustment to the way we look at his offense, or changed his defensive position to 1B, he's a slightly enhanced Paul Konerko, meaning Jeter becomes more of a 40-45 WAR player. That means not a Hall of Famer. Should Jeter be a Hall of Famer? The answer hinges on whether you think players should be graded on a curve based on their defensive position. would you trade abreu for donaldson (money aside)?

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 12:32 PM) Another thing to remember is that WAR is essence a counting stat. It accumulates as the season goes. Abreu spent 15 days on the DL costing him 13 or 14 games played. None of those other three have been on the DL this year. If Abreu had not gotten injured and played those games missed around the same level as the rest of the season, his WAR would be around 4.5. And as Wite said, those other three are plus defenders at more defensive minded positions than first base. That's the big difference. It's not that Abreu is necessarily a bad defender, but he is in a sense penalized for playing 1B from the get go. I don't see how LF (Gordon) is a more defensive-minded position than 1B? Guys are moved out to LF to hide because they can stick (similar to 1B). If we were talking CF, SS, or C then that's a different animal altogether. None of these guys play a premium defensive position in my mind (3B is probably the closest out of the three)

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 12:17 PM) Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon all play semi-premium to premium defensive positions and they play it incredibly well while being fairly to very productive hitters to boot. It's not flawed whatsoever. In theory, yes, the White Sox are only 4 games better. Much of that depends upon context, which WAR removes from the equation. Still, I feel the difference between 54-58 and 50-62 is incredibly signficant. I don't see any earth shattering offensive numbers from gordon this season. In fact, his numbers are very average for a LF. Yes, he plays a great defensive OF but give me the guy with the 200+ higher OPS over the great defensive outfielder any day. Would you trade Abreu right now for any of those guys? To me, Abreu is much harder to replace than any of those guys and isn't that what WAR ultimately measures? How else can anyone explain the improvement in the White Sox offense from #29 in runs scored last year to #7 this year? Adding Eaton and a better season from Conor has certainly helped but the '13 club also had a productive Rios/Garcia and De Aza.

how flawed is WAR when Abreu is at 4.0 and guys like Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon are 4.5+? I realize Abreu is hurt by his baserunning/defense but his offense is SO much better than those three guys that there's no way their baserunning/defense superiority should overcome Abreu's immense run producing capabilities. Are the White Sox really only 4 wins better with Abreu rather than a guy like Garrett Jones playing 1B?

QUOTE (JoshPR @ Aug 3, 2014 -> 05:40 PM) Wait , wasn't it your pretty stats who said that? I think sabermetrics post moneyball has gone too far. There are fans out there now that think they would be able to build a team/manage a team based on numbers alone. Yes numbers are important but so is having a feel for the game and knowing your players. Even if a guys "periphial" numbers look good, sometimes it's clear they just don't pass the eye test. Belisario has been one of those guys that just hasn't passed the eye test all year regardless of what the advance metrics were saying.

I'd say Flowers is seeing the ball well right now

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 01:21 PM) I played a lot of baseball, all the way through American Legion, and I'm NOT arguing that you don't feel better sometimes than others. I AM arguing that we cannot predict the length and continuation of these "hot streaks." They have random lengths and random endings. So it doesn't help us to say "call him up while he's hot" because it's just as likley that his hotness would end that very day as it is that it would continue for one day or two days or three days. Similarly, you could call a guy up when he's cold and he could start a hot streak the very next day. If you do truly CHANGE something, it isn't a hot streak, it's a breakout; a revelation. And you've set a new level of performance and will now have hot and cold streaks based on that new level. We can't really tell the difference by reading box scores -- we need the coaching staff to say "Yes, I told him to change his approach. He has now succeeded in that and is seeing succes as a result. He is ready to take this approach to the next level." We'll agree to disagree because while you might not be able to predict the length of hot streaks, I do think there is a greater probability of a minor league callup experiencing immediate success at the major league level if he is coming in hot and confidence is high compared to struggling and confidence low.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 09:01 AM) I'm not saying Marcus doesn't have anything left to learn, I'm just saying that him having a hot ten days is not the sign that he's ready. I think there's something to his confidence maybe being up if he's called up when he's hot, but the problem with "when he's seeing the ball well" is that guys are in that mode until they suddenly aren't, and there's just no way to tell when that will stop. It's literally no more likely a "hot" guy will get a hit in his next at bat than a "cold" guy, assuming of course that you control for talent. Now, if a guy has suddenly mastered something he's been working on, an improvement at the plate can be a by-product of course, but that's what you need the evaluators for, because they know what he's trying to do and they'll know why he's successful or not. Simply that he's been "seeing the ball well" doesn't translate even from day to day, let alone from league to league. Next time he gets hot though, I don't think there's any way we will be able to tell if it's because of a mechanical or approach tweak. We just have to trust the staff. Anybody that's played the game beyond little league would disagree with this. Seriously. The mental/confidence aspect of hitting is huge. When you're going well and confidence level is high, you truly are seeing the ball better. When I was in a funk, I knew I wasn't seeing the ball well and more often than not knew I was in for a rough game at the plate. I often knew this during BP prior to the game. The mental component of this game is very important, especially when it comes to hitting. Just take a look at Flowers right now. Sometimes you change one thing (start wearing glasses), have success, and you start to attribute this change to your success (increased confidence) even if it didn't. Now maybe the glasses really have improved his vision and his success is a direct result of this physical change but more than likely it just comes down to his increased confidence level resulting from the success he experienced when he started wearing the glasses. I think we would all agree that there is a greater probability Flowers gets a hit in his next at-bat today than any at-bat in June or the first week in July. It sounds silly but there's a reason hitting is so cyclical and guys often experience extended hot/cold stretches. This isn't coincidence or as simple as saying his BABIP is unusually high/low through these stretches. The numbers guys like to think it is but typically there is a reason for stretches in which a hitter experiences a low/high BABIP and it's not just a matter of luck.

I should probably be more descriptive than the 30 mile radius parameter since technically parts of NWI are just within 30 miles of the loop. I guess 30 mile radius west and north of the loop and 15 mile radius south of it would work. that would make for a reasonable commute to both downtown as well as the northwest burbs for my wife

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 30, 2014 -> 10:32 AM) I would say the systems to avoid over there are East Chicago, Hammond, and Merrillville. Other than that, there are a lot of nice towns through that area. Depends on where exactly you want to be in relations to schools, train, interstate etc. I'm petty much ruling NWI out due to location. Anything within a 30 mile radius of the loop is fair game. Any suggestions?

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jul 29, 2014 -> 07:56 AM) Munster. First of all, Indiana's government and taxes are far, far less f***ed up than Illinois. So having narrowed the choices down to NW Indiana, Munster has by far the best public school system. Anyone else?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 29, 2014 -> 01:51 PM) This. And The Region is as close to downtown Chicago by train as most of the suburbs are. Closer in many cases. It is a fraction of what it costs to live in the City. definitely if we worked in the city or SW burbs ... but hard to get to anywhere else other than the city (which is already a bit of a stretch of a commute from NWI) or SW burbs so it really limits work options. I'm guessing that's one of the biggest reason RE is much more affordable in the NWI region

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jul 29, 2014 -> 11:09 AM) Property taxes may be similar, but income and sales taxes are a lot lower in NWI, plus like you said you can get more house for your money. Yeah, Addison may be a bit far to commute from there. It's been a while since I've driven the tri-state in the morning so I don't know how long that would take. NB Tri-State is pretty bad in the morning but SB in the afternoon is even worse. Particularly north of 55, once you're south of 55 it's not bad (typically) in either direction AM or PM

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jul 29, 2014 -> 07:56 AM) Munster. First of all, Indiana's government and taxes are far, far less f***ed up than Illinois. So having narrowed the choices down to NW Indiana, Munster has by far the best public school system. I never considered NW IN to be honest. Munster seems like a great option if you work in the south or SW burbs but unfortunately is too far south for us since my wife works in Addison and Elk Grove Village. That commute would be an absolute bear. Too bad it's not an option because we could definitely afford a bigger/newer home in that area, though property taxes appear to be surprisingly comparable to where I'm at now in terms of % of home value

and please provide a brief explanation as to why you recommend that suburb (i.e. great schools, good location, activities, restaurants, good investment, etc)

If you were picking a Chicagoland suburb to buy a home and raise a family, which one would it be?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Apr 9, 2014 -> 02:27 PM) I had TWO, and have some info for ya. First for comparison sake for you, our lot is a corner lot about 60 by 120, average house footprint, but a lot of garden landscaping. Overall not a very big lawn, but not small either. With a relatively small lawn, decided to give the electric a try - got a battery-power one from Home Depot, I forget the brand. Had a 30 day return policy, so I thought, might as well try. Price same as similar gas mower, less noise, no gas/oil, cheaper to run. Worked great first year - usually finished the lawn with about 30% of the battery remaining. Cutting job was OK, not the best I've seen, but just fine for me. Quiet, charged quick, lived up to expectations. Went to charge it back up after the first winter, did what you should do with stored batteries - ran it down a little, then fully charged it. Well, it did about a quarter of the lawn before it died. Figured it was the winter, so I charged it full again, let it sit, charged it full yet again, then tried it. Was even worse. Batteries were trashed after sitting for one frickin' winter. And of course, the mower has a 2 year warranty... except the battery, which is 1 year. Missed it by a month. Bought a new battery. Worked great at first, seemed just as good as it was when new. Later in the summer, started having trouble finishing the lawn. Did some interwebbing, says to keep the battery plugged in over the winter, so I did that. Next spring? Dead again, battery barely worked. Also by this point, after just two years of use, a couple plastic parts started acting funny, just not a quality build. Since the mower itself was still under warranty and it had other flaws, I managed to trade it in for a different brand electric, this one a Black and Decker (Home Depot was pretty good about this). That one I returned in a couple weeks because it couldn't finish the lawn on even the first shot! Finally gave in and bought a gas Honda mower, which has worked fantastically for 2 years. It's a great concept, but the batteries - both the OEM ones and the aftermarket ones from a different manufacturer - just don't last. I don't recommend it. ONE NOTE - These are the battery powered ones. Plug-in ones may be fine, I don't know, but those weren't practical for me. great info. that is exactly my fear. just like any other battery-powered device (cell phone. laptop, etc.), my fear is that it would start out fine but quickly lose capacity over time. didn't realize it would be that quick though!

need a new lawn mower. the old craftsman has seen its last days. contemplating an electric mower (cordless) rather than gas. read a lot on line about pros/cons and seems like they have come a long way in the past few years. I like the idea of not messing with gas, oil, pull cord, etc. but I'm still a bit skeptical about performance. anyone here have first hand experience?

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Jan 6, 2014 -> 12:10 PM) Clay Matthews, Casey Hayward, Brian Bulaga, Johnny Jolly, Jemichael Finley, Brandon Bostick, Jonathan Franklin, DuJuan Harris. Lot's of good players in that list. and probably the most significant of all, sam shields on the opening drive of the game. devon house is garbage and made crabtree look like TO in his prime. even despite your list, with shields in yesterday's game it changes everything

Is miles plumlee the real deal? His stats in college weren't overly impressive but he had two huge games to open this year. Considering picking him up in fantasy basketball in favor of varejao or faried (who appears to be on a time split with jj hicks on this year)

And the fact that the bills have no qb, not sure if that helps or hurts FJax

I'm leaning towards sproles since I think spiller will be more involved this week but FJax has been so solid thus far this season

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 13, 2013 -> 09:59 AM) PPR? Standard

Sproles @ NE or FJax vs. CIN?