JUSTgottaBELIEVE

QUOTE (DrunkBomber @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 01:22 PM) I ended up with Kaepernick Lacy, Vereen Marshall, Keenan Allen Gronk Crabtree Nick Novak Chiefs DST Pierre Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Freeman, Shorts, Mike Evans, Deangelo Williams Probably should have drafted a backup for Gronk but you only yolo once. That looks solid for a ppr. Hell it looks good for standard too. What do you think of my team above? Should I try upgrading any positions by trading away some rb depth?

QUOTE (scs787 @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 11:25 PM) If Vereen is the starter in NE (Pats beat writer is projecting Ridley to be cut, but I HIGHLY doubt that) Murray/Vereen isn't a bad RB tandem at all. To go back to the Brady discussion, the addition of Tim Wright could be huge for Brady. If they stay healthy, and Wright gets utilized like Hernandez, then a Gronk, Wright, Vereen, Edleman, LaFell etc. is a solid group to throw to....But then again health is of course a concern. so you're saying I have a chance?! haha

horrible draft. waited too long on the top RBs in an auction draft and ended up grabbing murray and a bunch of third tier RBs in hopes that a couple hit. and then later rounds missed my nomination turn and got stuck with yahoo defaulting a kicker and IDP leaving me with $5 on the table that I planned on spending towards another WR3/4 (guys like decker and sanders were still available, that hurts)... 10 team standard scoring, think I stand a chance? To me it's looking like a 6th/7th place type of team... QB - Foles RB - Murray RB - Bush/J. Bell WR - Jeffrey WR - Brown Flex - VJax TE - Davis DEF - SF Bench WR - Floyd RB - Richardson RB - Tate RB - CJ2K RB - Vereen

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 08:39 PM) Baez up and down roller coaster continues, at least he's entertaining to watch....coming at a time when Abreu's really going through an August funk. 900 OPS, 2 doubles and 4 HR's in 40 AB's, 13 K's....still no walks yet The Cubs would definitely be okay with a 30-35% strikeout percentage IF he can start taking some walks and maintain that XB rate. Baez K rate sits at 38.8% now, that's brutal. Still no walks in 49 AB. What's the record for most plate appearances to start a career without a walk? I'm guessing it might be over 100 but probably not by much. Alcantara meanwhile is now flirting with the Mendoza line. Looking overmatched at the plate.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 14, 2014 -> 01:04 PM) I don't believe this has come full circle at all, and I do think defense in left field is important. Just because teams put bad defenders in left field does not mean you can not find a competitive advantage by putting a good defender in left field. The 2005 Sox outfield defense was much better and saved a lot of runs because they had a speedy guy who could cover a lot of ground in Podsednik out there. I fully believe the 2010 White Sox almost won 90 games partly due to Juan Pierre having gold glove range out there. A lot of balls get hit out to left field. The Royals are in first place in the AL Central and part of that reason is undoubtedly due to their defense, and Gordon provides great defense out there. I think saying that having good defense is not important is virtually the exact same thing as saying having good defense at 3B is not important. Of course it is, but if you're Robin Ventura right now, do you want to play a mediocre defender in Conor Gillaspie at 3B to get his bat in the lineup, or do you want to put Leury Garcia over there who, while playing much better defense, will also put up a .550 OPS? You are going to choose the bat. Frankly, I think good defense at every position is incredibly important, but beggars can't be choosers. There are only so many guys who are good to great defenders at all these positions but the number of guys who hit well is even less than that. Teams value good hitting more than they value good fielding because it's much more difficult to find. I never said defense isn't important, I just don't believe that LF defense is nearly as important as you are making it sound. To me, defense up the middle is very important particularly relative to the corner positions. There is no doubt that defense has played a large role in the Royals' success this year. They have an average offense, very good pitching (esp. bullpen), and great defense. However, I would argue that their record would be even better if they had average defense, very good pitching, and a great offense (i.e. 2013 Boston Red Sox).

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 14, 2014 -> 12:30 PM) If we are referencing mental with regards to positioning, then it's still quite important. Most defensive positioning is dictated by the coaches or pre-game scouting reports. Let me put this another way. I bet I could name many more examples of a player displaying average defense and dramatically worse offensive numbers in a given year (by that given player's historical standard) than a player displaying average offense and dramatically worse defense in a given year. I.E. Chris Davis, De Aza, Viciedo, etc. Or on the flip side, more examples of a player displaying average defense and dramatically improved offense than a player displaying average offense and dramatically improved defense. Why is that? How do you explain the greater standard deviation in a guy's offensive numbers when compared to his defensive numbers? Why is defense relatively consistent when hitting is not? Did a guy change his entire swing from one year to next? Is he just getting unlucky for an entire season? Did he just forget how to hit? Most guys hat make it to the big leagues, have refined their mechanics to a point that minimal changes are made over the remaining course of their career. More often than not, it's between the ears. Confidence is very important. Right now you can just see that a guy like Beckham completely lacks confidence at the plate. It doesn't matter how many changes he makes to his mechanics, he won't succeed until he gets his mind right (thus the change of scenery concept).

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 14, 2014 -> 10:38 AM) 1. Show me these people that use WAR are their primary criterion. If you read and follow FanGraphs at all, any citation of WAR is backed heavily by supporting arguments showing why a player's WAR (or UZR or what have you). If there are people who say "so and so is better because his WAR is better," I will not agree with them until they make an argument supporting that assertation. But if you ask me who I'd prefer between Abreu and Gordon, I'm probably not going to use WAR at all to justify who I think the Sox should take. 2. He may be a bit bird brained out there, but he's still a talented player. This suggests that his arm is weak, he has above average range, but he doesn't have sure hands out there. Given his skill set - above average speed with shaky hands and a weak arm - I don't think the assertion is far off, especially since this has been the type of player he's been since joining the White Sox as a full time player. For all intents and purposes, he's an average to slightly above average defensive player from a quality perspective. It also suggests that, as the #11 overall defensive player in LF, that teams are putting bad defensive players in LF, likely in an attempt to bolster their offense. The Alex Gordon conversation has come full circle. This was my exact point when I stated that a LF's defensive ability should not swing a guy with Gordon's offensive numbers into the second highest WAR in MLB for the season, even if he is an elite defender. Frankly, LF defense just isn't that important, especially relative to positions up the middle (C, SS, 2B, and CF). If it was, you wouldn't find so many hacks playing LF. And the argument that they are bolstering their offense by putting a bad defender out there somewhat surprisingly isn't true either according to the average offensive statistics for AL LF posted by someone earlier in this thread. So it seems Gordon's WAR is inflated by 1. left fielders that as a whole can't play defense and 2. are putting up pedestrian offensive numbers.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 14, 2014 -> 10:26 AM) Not sure if you're agreeing or disagreeing, but just to clarify my statement -- I'm claiming that hitting and defense are both very "mental." There is certainly a mental aspect to both but the mental aspect to hitting is a much greater factor than it is to playing defense. I'm not sure how this is even debateable.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 14, 2014 -> 08:43 AM) Regarding Caple's argument, he says he doesn't like that people are using it as "THE definitive evaluation of a player's worth." No one involved in sabermetrics uses it this way. I personally felt that Trout deserved the MVP the last two seasons because he was an incredible all around offensive player plus he played very good defense. I felt his contributions were worth more to his team than Cabrera's were. I have no problem with the other argument and had no problem with Cabrera's MVPs. He then says it's too complicated. That's a pretty terrible argument against something, and really, it's not. Here is FanGraphs easy definitions: "Offensive players: Take wRAA, UBR & wSB, and UZR (which express offensive, base running, and defensive value in runs above average) and add them together. Add in a positional adjustment, since some positions are tougher to play than others, and then convert the numbers so that they’re not based on league average, but on replacement level (which is the value a team would lose if they had to replace that player with a “replacement” player – a minor leaguer or someone from the waiver wire). Convert the run value to wins (10 runs = 1 win) and voila, finished! "Pitchers: Pitchers – Where offensive WAR used wRAA and UZR, pitching WAR uses FIP. Based on how many innings a pitcher threw, FIP is turned into runs form, converted to represent value above replacement level, and is then converted from runs to wins." http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/ That doesn't seem overly complicated to me. It may be time consuming and tedious to manually calculate individual WARs, but it's not complicated. His next argument is that there are multiple WAR statistics. That's because the two primary sites - B-R and FanGraphs - use two different sets of data, neither of which are wrong, to compute WAR. Consider how you rate the best NFL offenses and defenses in the league. Some people will use yards per game and some will use points per game. It's essentially the same exact process. Yards per game will give a better indication of future success - if a team puts up 450 total yards and doesn't turn the ball over, but only scores 19 points through 4 field goals and 1 touchdown, you would assume that, so long as they continue putting up 450 yards, they'll score points - but total point scored will tell you how often they have actually done it to that point. It's the same difference between fWAR and bWAR, especially for pitchers. Regarding the 3rd link, you are letting a pre-conceived notion bias your opinion again. Just because a guy does not seem like he should be there doesn't mean he shouldn't be there. Some of it likely has to do with Kansas City's park and pitching style - Gordon leads left fielders on balls going into his zone, but he also leads all left fielders on plays made out of his zone. Look at how the fans have scouted him though - very good instincts, good first step, OK speed, good hands, great release, good arm strength and incredible accuracy. Per those calculations, the fans scouting reports says Gordon has saved 16 runs in LF. These are good tools to have. As has been said ad nauseum, these are not the end all, be all, but they do help us see a broader picture. 1. Who are these people? Folks that work for fangraphs? BMLB GMs? Just trying to understand the definition of "those involved in sabermetrics." It is cited endlessly as the primary criterion in player performance evaluation, and very rarely used as a "complimentary" statistic in conjunction with other statistics by the countless articles I have read on ESPN, SB Nation, etc. as well as forums on this site. 2. How is it pre-conceived that De Aza is poor defensive LF? I have watched the guy play the position all season. According to the link, he's actually an ABOVE average defensive LF. Just sayin

QUOTE (shysocks @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 01:58 PM) First, read this, published a couple months ago. This is how even a left fielder can flex defensive value. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-o...-using-his-arm/ Second, his offensive numbers are not "very average." American League: .255/.318/.394 Alex Gordon: .280/.356/.436 The article I linked above is one of MANY I have read that references error bars or something like them. Jonah Keri published a piece on Grantland today that includes the phrase "given the vagaries of defensive metrics." I'm sure you have examples to the contrary but I can't really be held responsible for those. And as far as I can tell, you believe the defensive component of WAR is deeply flawed because you believe the defensive component of WAR is deeply flawed. Whether it is or isn't, it's definitely a lot more reliable than saying, "That guy can't be better than this guy because I know it's he's not." this article pretty much sums up my feelings about WAR http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8900693/...eplacement-stat this post pretty much sums up my feelings about defensive metrics and more specifically OF defensive metrics http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2011/...e-sabremetrics/ take a look at this list and I'm sure more than a few names will jump out to you as being out of place or at least they should http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 01:20 PM) 1. I bet you've seen about 0.01% of the games they've played in over the last four years, and I would posit that is not anywhere in the range of enough information to have an opinion that is more reliable than all of the data from the most advanced publicly available statistical analyses of defensive value that currently exist. The concept of "this data must be wrong because it doesn't match up with what I already think" is completely illogical, especially when "what you already think" is based on a very small sample of non-professional observation that happened years ago. 2. Generalizations are useful for context, but outliers always exist. In terms of late-career improvement, they aren't even THAT rare. Jhonny Peralta jumps to mind immediately. Jose Bautista jumps to mind immediately. 3. Why does it make sense that hitters can get better with experience but defenders can't? Quickness declines just like bat speed declines, so why doesn't every player always peak at age 22? 1. Why even bother sending professional scouts to big league games then? How could they possibly form an educated opinion about a player from watching him in 1 game? Why not just go purely with statistical data? 2. I never said there aren't outliers but I do think it is very rare that a player would improve defensively in his late 30s. 3. Simple answer: hitting is far more mental than defense. Hitting is less dependent on physical ability than defense. I guarantee that statistics would prove that a player's peak years defensively happens at a younger age than his peak year's offensively.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 10:18 AM) Did not say Dunn was vastly better, just said he was better. Tyler's AVG/OBP/SLG right now stand .053/.060/.021 points higher than last season; if that is not a vast improvement, I don't know what is. Yes, and if balls hit to left field off KC pitchers are caught instead of going for doubles or runners hold at third instead of scoring on singles, that is valuable. Again, you're basically saying that WAR is bad because it doesn't seem to back up whatever feelings you already had. Whether or not Gordon is the third MVP isn't really the point. The defensive component of his WAR is the highest in baseball. That means he is doing something at an elite level and his WAR reflects that. The bolded is a straw man argument that I can't deal with. I think you have a misconception that people just look at WAR and rank the players by that list. The people who use it acknowledge its imperfections, which is why other stats come in as well. If you think that a good defensive LF is so very important, why is the worst defensive OF typically put in LF? Why are guys that can't hack it in the infield moved to LF? Maybe you have unearthed some new discovery that the rest of baseball has missed. He's playing LF at an elite level, whoop-de-doo. It shouldn't result in the 2nd highest war in baseball when combined with his very average offensive numbers. Regarding the use of WAR, just take a look at the discussions on this board and most articles analyzing the trades at the deadline. Nearly every one of them is using WAR and player salary as the baseline to evaluate a trade. They certainly are not acknowledging its imperfections when they say that a trade was better for team X because the guy they received has a surplus value of X based on his WAR. As I said, I have a huge issue with WAR serving as the baseline when I believe the defensive component is deeply flawed.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 10:37 AM) How is this possibly a convincing argument that the metrics are wrong? You just said "I saw a guy play before and can't imagine he's gotten better the last four years" and passed it off like some kind of factual account of his defense. What if he got WAY better at reading pitches and positioning? What if continued practice made him an even more accurate thrower who made fewer mistakes? On the flipside, what if Beltre has just lost a step? Or maybe he's just having a worse year than usual on defense. Conflicting pre-determined opinions are not anything like evidence against statistical data. In fact, they happen to be exactly why we NEED the statistical data. You do not see any of these guys even remotely close to enough to be able to have an accurate account of their defense -- and that's nothing personal, it's true of all of us. Our brains lie to us, especially in extreme cases and especially when we see very little of something and try to generalize. There are several legitimate criticisms and limitations of the current crop of defensive metrics, but "to my eyes that can't be true" is NOT one of them. Yea because everyone knows guys improve defensively as they approach 40... Come on, you can't be serious with this. What is a pre-determined opinion any way? I have an opinion based on what I have seen. Have I seen everyone of the games that both of those guys have played over the past 4 years, no. Do I need to have seen every game in order to come up with an opinion of who the better defender is, no. In general, a guy is either a good defender or he isn't. This isn't hitting where guys become smarter, more confident, etc. as they age until their physical abilities fail them. Very rarely do guys make vast improvements or become drastically worse defenders from one year to the next.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 9, 2014 -> 07:49 PM) Well, nobody ever said Jackson was good without Cooper. As far as Alcantara, a 700ish OPS out of a rookie is acceptable if he can play as well as he has been defensively in CF (and stay healthy, unlike Eaton). Those numbers are way down from where he was a week or two ago, so these are his first offensive struggles...up to him to respond. I don't remember anyone taking Danks seriously as a Top 80-100 prospect in all of baseball for five years now. Let's wait before we start comparing him to Danks, Marcus Semien, Junior Lake and Mike Olt, etc. I guess we could have said the same thing about Abreu and Avisail in Coors Field. Up to Baez to perform against every pitching staff, obviously. Alcantara down to .679 now and this is coming off a game of 2/3 with a double. Baez down to .784 and dropping fast. Amazingly, he has no walks in 37 at-bats. He's going to give 2010 Dayan Viciedo a run for his money in the walk category. Also, no homers yet outside Coors. I think some Cubs' fans are starting to come to the realization that IF these guys turn out to be studs, it's still a few years down the line. I think most Cubs' fans thought as soon as they brought these guys up, they were going to have an immediate impact and top 5 offense in baseball as a result but never underestimate the growing pains that come with the jump from the minors to the majors, especially when expectations are enormous (unless you're mike trout, who is the very exception to every rule)

Seriously, what kind of era and whip would sale have in the NL? 1.6 and 0.75?

6, not even fair

5 in a row lol

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Aug 12, 2014 -> 09:54 PM) they'd be Kershaw or better Probably better, at least this year

Can you imagine if Sale pitched in the NL. His numbers would be downright silly

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 10, 2014 -> 12:17 PM) Of course, Ken Rosenthal had no clue about any of the big trades that happened in July, so not sure if I would trust that information or not. I would. Soler has the same agent as Jose Abreu and Abreu has the same clause in his contract

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 10, 2014 -> 11:45 AM) 14:$2M, 15:$2M, 16:$3M, 17:$3M, 18:$4M, 19:$4M, 20:$4M Jorge Soler's contract. Likely to replace Alexei Ramirez's first deal, Chris Sale/Jose Quintana or Steve Trout's first 3 years as the friendliest contract in MLB. The last three years of Mike Trout's new deal, $100 million, or $33.33 million per season. Except for this... http://www.sbnation.com/2012/6/11/3078976/...ontract-opt-out

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 9, 2014 -> 06:33 PM) 10 strikeouts in 23 AB's for Baez, 43.4% OTOH, a .957 OPS with 5 RBI's with 4 of his 5 hits for XB, which is basically what Leury Garcia has given us for an entire season. Alcantara with a 705 OPS but stellar defense, especially considering he mostly played IF up until recently. Baez has 6 hits out of the 13 balls he's put in play. Pretty sure that's unsustainable. No walks in 23 at bats. All 3 homers in coors against the worst pitching staff in baseball. I wouldn't get too excited about that .957 OPS because it's only headed down from here. And Alcantara is the 2013 version of jordan danks, sweet. Let's see how these guys' numbers translate at the mlb level over 200+ at bats before getting too excited. Possibly this is just the first chapter in the development of the best offense in baseball but I'm skeptical. Oh yea and their pitching still sucks. Thought I'd go ahead and reiterate that small piece of information.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 9, 2014 -> 01:59 PM) What players in the majors WOULDN'T a package of Castro or Russell (let's say Russell for argument's sake), Almora and/or McKinney, Vogelbach and Schwarber get you? Maybe Pierce Johnson or CJ Edwards if the other team is balking or wants a pitcher. That's four former 1st round draft picks that are "expendable" and don't force you to trade Baez/Soler/Bryant. Right now, they're getting plenty out of Coghlan, so it's not imperative that they add another outfielder when they have Alcantara and either Baez or Bryant who could possibly be shifted to LF/RF, not to mention Soler. That still leaves you: Coghlan LF/RF Alcantara CF Soler LF/RF Sweeney 3B Bryant SS Castro or Russell 2B Baez 1B Rizzo C ???? You are assuming all those prospects turn out. The royals were thinking the same thing a few years back. I don't think hosmer, starling, moustakas, etc. are helping the royals much this year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 9, 2014 -> 02:00 PM) Just to note, from the White Sox's side I wouldn't do either of those. I know. I was being cub friendly to make a point.

That's a great stat because it once again highlights how valuable jose is to this team. If he's not hitting, we ain't winning. Hence, it's no coincidence the sox have a terrible record this year on Saturdays