JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Similar to Cease, it’s injury risk. If they aren’t planning to extend him beyond next season then Crochet’s trade value will never be higher than this July. I’m fine extending him too but if they aren’t then you have to trade him imo.

Correct. There has been no indication from Crochet, staff, or management that they plan to shut him down early. In fact, they’ve said the opposite. That they’re trying to be smart about his early season workload so he can make every (most) of his starts this season. It’s why I continue to scratch my head about the insistence that he’s on some type of rigid innings limit or that there’s a pre-planned shutdown after July.

I don’t think he’d return two 50 FV prospects like Cease. Maybe one 50 and one 45 or two 45s in addition to the one 55 guy. Crochet doesn’t have the track record that Cease had but he’s younger, cheaper, and has better pure stuff imo.

They do it all the time. Dodgers have been open about their plan with Buehler this season, for example. https://dodgerblue.com/walker-buehler-tommy-john-recovery-innings-limit-season-delayed-dodgers-opening-day-rotation/2024/02/04/amp/

What flex? How about you and the majority of soxtalk point me to where crochet or the organization has said they plan to shut him down or impose some arbitrary 100 inning limit on him this season?

It’s all a crap shoot though. You said teams are looking for starters with gas left in the tank but that’s not an exact science at all. Top starters at last year’s deadline like Scherzer, Lorenzen, Flaherty fizzled hard after they were traded while guys like Montgomery and Verlander did great. It’s a crap shoot with most of these guys. All it takes is one playoff contender to fall in love with Crochet and to think he’ll be highly useful this August thru October to bring back a very nice haul for the Sox this July.

Who said 200 innings? He’ll still have a ton of value to a prospective trade partner THIS season if he can pitch 150 innings.

They will if they aren’t planning to shut him down for the last two months of the season like you and the rest of soxtalk.

So he has less trade value in July 2024 than he does in November 2024? Makes no sense, especially since you think he’ll be shut down for most of August/September. Why would his value drop if he’s not pitching anyways and simply has less team control in the offseason than this summer? Zero logic here.

Oh ok, so you’re walking back your earlier statement that he’s not worth anything close to what I expect. Got it!

Your words. I speculated Crochet is worth one 55 FV prospect and two 45/50 FV prospects. So if Crochet “won’t return anywhere near as much as I expect” safe to say you think his value is something like two 45 FV prospects. You’re way off….

And a “worn down” (lol) Crochet is worth next to nothing. Got it!

Whatever you say ?

Lol ok

What did I say wrong? You’re coming at me about a prediction that largely came true so??

Nitpick much? Yes, they got 1 in the 50-100 range and 2 in the 100-200 range plus a high leverage cost controlled MLB reliever that should return another 100-200 type if they decide to trade in 6 weeks. I’d say I was nearly spot on!!

Sox landed 3 of the Padres top 8 prospects and a late inning MLB reliever. Was it really that far off dude?

Right and that’s what I think is being overlooked here. Everyone is focused on the total innings pitched while 150 innings in a season as a starter might be easier on someone like Garrett than 50 innings as a reliever.

That’s a good point. The most Garrett ever threw in a college season was 65 innings. But this is also the first time he’s ever been a starting pitcher only. Every other season he was either a reliever or a mix of starting and relieving. I wonder if the consistency of a starter’s schedule is easier on his body?

Garrett threw 54.1 innings a few seasons ago so not too different really. I think everyone imposing a ~100 inning limit on Garrett this season is in for a surprise, assuming he stays healthy. Been saying it for awhile. Wouldn’t shock me if he throws 150 innings. And what if other teams aren’t concerned about a limit this year either? Very well could be the top starter available on the trade market in 6 weeks.

Good point. In Chris’ first season as a starter he threw 192 innings. His prior single season high was 71. I bet Soxtalk posters were imposing an innings limit on him too going into the 2012 season.

Crochet is at 63.2 IP. He’s averaging over 5 innings per start. Assuming ~5 innings per start, he’s at 100 innings in the year after 7 more starts. That’s basically the second week in July. Are the Sox going to completely shut him down for the last 2.5 months of the season? I haven’t heard them say anything like this.

Has he not been stronger of late? I’m just stating the facts. I never said it would continue the rest of the season. It might, it might not. Posters here have imposed an innings limit for Crochet this season of anywhere from 50-110 innings. Where are they getting this information because I haven’t seen anything reported by the team or Crochet about that. Regardless, they keep sayin it ?

It’s a calculated risk. Pay less of a premium for a guy like crochet because the risk is there or pay a premium for a guy like Luzardo who isn’t even as good imo. I don’t think that’s an easy decision for a GM.

I’m not absurdly confident but I’m also not absurdly negative. There’s a difference.