JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Orioles equivalent package would have been something like Kjerstad + Norby + Beavers. But I like this package better. I said early on I wanted young prospects with high upside even if it meant they were riskier. That’s exactly what this is. Would I have liked a better 4th piece than a 29 year old RP? Sure. But I think it’s a fair deal for both sides.

I don’t think it’s terrible. Some values are a bit goofy but it’s aligning pretty well on recent trades when I’ve checked it. A similar Orioles package value-wise would have been Kjerstad+Norby+Beavers. Also would have been slightly underwhelming imo but I know many Orioles fans would have been very pissed about giving up that much for Cease,

That mlb trade values site has the padres group of players valued at a total of 44.5 and had Cease at 42.4 FWIW. I was hoping for slightly more of a premium than that but seems like a fair deal for both sides.

Agreed

Walcott + Porter + Leiter/Rocker sounds good to me

I like Thorpe a lot too but I really like Snelling. He’s a top 5 pitching prospect imo.

Draft mainly. They could go easily go with position players at #5, #43, #68 if they go pitching heavy in a Cease trade. Plus, they’ll have money to spend after eloy, Cease, Moncada contracts roll off the books. Plus plus, they’ll be looking to trade Robert within the next 12-24 months (I think) so you can hopefully acquire a slew of talent in that trade. I’m not worried about it.

Agreed. I’m really high on Snelling. Would love to pair him with Schultz in the 2026 rotation.

Maybe. Either way, 1.5x the Burnes return is perfectly reasonable imo and I can come up with some rather exciting packages from the padres, rangers, and Yankees working off that premise.

So the question is, what does 1.5x the Burnes return look like for Texas, NYY, and SD? Texas - Walcott, Porter, Leiter NYY - Arias, Hampton, Lombard SD - Snelling, Thorpe, low level prospect sound about right?

At some point it’s law of diminishing returns. An extra year of control doesn’t necessarily equate to 2x the return.

Yes! As they should. I honestly think Cease is in store for a big bounce back this season. Especially with a better defense behind him. I bet he has a better season than Burnes, is cheaper from a $ perspective, and has an additional season of control. 1.5x sounds perfectly reasonable to me.

Fine by me if Spencer Jones isn’t involved. If SD is truly interested, I think they’re the best match. Snelling + Thorpe + lesser prospect would be a fantastic return for Cease.

Who on the board has said they’d like that package? Heck no

A package involving Snelling and Thorpe would be fantastic (although I’m sure would disappoint many posters because it’s pitcher centric).

Yea, typo on my part. Either way, Leiter is just a couple years removed from the #2 overall pick and still has big upside. Basically what the Sox would get out of the #34 pick (or worse when you consider their Jacob Gonzalez pick). Also, Duran was a top 100 mlb prospect in summer 2022 before he graduated. And he’s already shown some mlb success unlike ortiz despite being a year younger than ortiz. I stand by my statement that their values are comparable.

I didn’t say anything about whether it was a deal I want (it’s not), I’m just replying to those saying it’s a lesser package than the Burnes package (it’s not).

How so? From a value perspective, Duran and Ortiz are comparable. Porter and Hall are comparable. It all depends on how you value Leiter. I’d say he’s at least equal in value to the #64 draft pick, probably even better.

I don’t think the weekend trades moved the needle on the 2024 win total. Perhaps the bullpen is weaker but the outfield should be better.

I said this at the start of the offseason but the Sox would have the top farm system in MLB as soon as July if they decided to trade both Cease and Robert. After Cease is traded within the next 6 months and after the draft, the Sox “should” comfortably have 6 top 100 mlb prospects. I don’t expect Robert to get traded by July but next offseason is a real possibility at which time 8-9 top 100 mlb prospects becomes a reality (I don’t see any of their current top 10 prospects outside of Nastrini graduating in 2024).

There’s a decent chance Robert isn’t on the team to start the 2025 season so Fletcher fits both a short term need (RF) and long term need (CF).

I don’t care what you call it, being .500 and making the playoffs would be a huge win for the Sox even if they get swept in the first round. It seems like 3/4 seasons the Sox aren’t playing meaningful baseball in August/July so it would be nice if that changed.

Tbh, that roster competes for the division title. I don’t know what it would cost but I don’t think that payroll would be higher than what they had going into the 2023 season.

$15M AAV isn’t a big free agent contract. Sure, for Jerry it is, but for real major market teams that’s nothing.

Sure but that rotation would have a fangraphs projection of 10.0 for the 2024 season even with questionable 4 and 5. Swap Soroka for Kopech if you want to move Kopech back to the pen and it bumps up to 10.4. Not bad, especially in a terrible division it would likely be tops. Defense has improved. Then you’re just hoping and praying for a league average offense, which of course we’d need big final year contract seasons out of Moncada and Eloy for that to have a chance. Add Soler for RF. Even after those 3 moves the payroll would still be at a very reasonable level for this season and beyond. I know, dreaming (only because Jerry is the owner).