JUSTgottaBELIEVE

You’re not following my point that teams that don’t spend at some point don’t win titles. It’s that simple. Sure you might have a brief 3-4 year window where you have an outside shot at a title like the rays but they still haven’t broken through and that’s one rare example of an organization that has done it as well as possible while many others have failed to come anywhere close to that. So, if you’re not willing to pay up for a top starter like Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery, etc AND you’re not willing to part with prospects for a relatively cheap starter like Cease, what exactly are you doing? Because the clock is ticking if they aren’t going to sustain a top 10 payroll in a few years.

I don’t care where the players came from. Bottom line is the Astros spent serious money after their first few years of competitiveness. If the Orioles aren’t willing to spend $200M+ starting in 3 or 4 years, good luck with following that Astros model.

They won’t need to? What do you think it’s going to cost to extend those home grown guys Henderson, Rustchman, Holliday, etc?? Or are you going to trade them in arb years 2 and 3 lol

Oh they are? Are the Orioles willing to run a top 10 payroll in a few years? That means sporting a payroll of $200M+. Because that’s what the Astros model looks like after the first few years of competitiveness.

Those are two very different things. The Astros/Braves model is very different from the rays model. The first has pushed payrolls into the top 10/even top 5 at times and won championships while the latter hasn’t.

How are the Braves a bad example? What young players in arb years 2 and 3 are they trading off the last few years? They’ve been a top 10 payroll since 2021 too. That doesn’t look anything like the model you described earlier that the Orioles are apparently following.

Yea, that’s a really good point. I prefer Domínguez over Jones as a player but with those other considerations in mind Jones probably has more value to the Sox.

Yankees easily of these two. If that’s being offered for Cease, Getz better say yes.

Is it dumb if they win championships though? Yes, I’m looking at organizations like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves, and Giants. Seems to work pretty well.

And what organization has won a World Series utilizing this approach? Certainly none of the last 8 champs. Only 1 of the last 20 champs used this approach (Royals).

We’ll see, time will tell. Too early to make sweeping generalizations either way imo.

Everyone references the Rays as the example of this but they also trade most of their good mlb players before they hit free agency for prospects. They don’t have a top farm system because they draft so much better than everyone else. If that’s the model the Orioles want to follow I suppose you can be competitive often but never really a consistent contender to win a World Series and you also get to see your team constantly unload their best players every few years. It’s not the worst model for a small market team but I think I’d also be frustrated by it as a fan.

https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/ obviously, draft position makes a huge difference on probabilities of mlb success whether you want to admit it or not

My point is it’s easy to draft well when you have one of the top picks 4 or 5 years in a row. True test for Elias and co is the next few years when they’re not.

Let’s see how good they are at drafting when they’re picking outside the top 20 for several years in a row. Only time will tell. It’s pretty easy when you have the top pick in 2 out of 4 years and the second and fifth pick in the other 2 years…

Prior to the recent run of high picks that landed them Rutschman, Kjerstad, Cowser and Holliday, back in 2010-2012 the Orioles had theee straight years of top 4 picks and landed Machado, Bundy, and Gausman. Awesome, great picks overall. But then the big league team got good again and didn’t pick inside the top 20 for awhile and this is what they picked in the first round over those next years: Hunter Harvey, Josh Hart, DJ Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle, Cody Sedlock. Mountcastle is the only one I ever heard of.

If you truly believe they have a top 5 farm system on the pitching side then why bother trading for Cease? Just give DL hall, Povich and the gang a go and let’s see how it goes.

If you truly believe that then there’s no point in trading for Cease and best of luck to ya

I’m not saying they need to all be top 100 mlb prospects but I don’t see much in the Orioles farm system in terms of starting pitching. It’s somehow even weaker on the pitching side than the Sox and that’s saying a lot. Now that they’re no longer drafting in the top 5 every year like they did for 4 consecutive years, it’s also going to be much more difficult to backfill the farm system as guys graduate. I don’t know, I think the approach of load up on all position players is flawed for a team that can’t sign a quality free agent starting pitcher due to monetary restrictions and also seems unwilling to trade from their prospect depth for a quality starting pitcher.

In reality, you need both. But if Orioles’ ownership is so risk adverse and will never sign a decent starting pitcher via the free agent market, how do they plan on developing and maintaining a good pitching staff if all their top prospects are position players? Seems very flawed to me.

Both sides spending a stupid amount of time arguing hypothetical situations. How about we wait another 6 weeks and save everyone the effort. This thread has become useless because these endless arguments are obscuring any small updates that are scattered throughout the rest of the thread.

Who cares

From everything I’ve read, scouts think he ends up at 1b/LF. And a strikeout rate in the mid 20s percent in the minor leagues is high. This is in line with what Robert did in the minors (Robert also did and still does have a ton of power). The difference being Robert plays a premium position very well. If Robert was putting up the numbers he has but while playing 1b, his value would be a small fraction of what it is.

If he hits 40+ bombs with a high OBP that certainly has a lot of value but the likelihood of him doing that at the big league level Is very low.

I still don’t understand what makes Mayo untouchable. Right handed power bat that hits for a decent average but strikes out a lot and likely ends up at 1b/LF. He better hit bombs like Pete Alonso to be untouchable with that profile.