JUSTgottaBELIEVE

They laugh at the thought of missing the playoffs this year but I can easily see a path to that happening with the way the team is currently constructed.

Just pulled up an old article after the Sox traded for Cease in 2017. That trade gave them 9 MLB top 100 prospects at the time lol. But Orioles fans are certain they have a very long contention window playing in a far tougher AL East. Ok.

Easily. And Cease was a far better prospect at the time than Enrique Bradfield too.

Ah, I was thinking he was a FA after 2019 but you’re right that he had another option year in 2020 that the cubs would have done better not picking up.

(I’m waiting for @Sports Guyto argue that the Mayo package is substantially better than the Q return -it’s not- or that Q was a much better pitcher than Cease- he wasn’t)

And for the record, the package of Mayo + Bradfield + Povich is on par with the package the Sox received for Quintana in 2017. Yes, Quintana had an extra 0.33 seasons of team control but I’d argue cost efficient starters are in even greater demand today than they were in 2017 given the rule changes since then (specifically the luxury tax rules) and overall inflation of player salaries.

Fine then Sox hold on to him. I’m not accepting a package right now that is valued at substantially lower than what the Sox got for Jose Quintana in 2017.

I’d rather have a return of Mayo + Bradfield + Povich than Westburg + Kjerstad ++. If mayo is truly untouchable then give me Cowser + Bradfield + Beavers + Povich. But I’d still prefer Jones + Hampton + a couple in the Yankees top 10-20 over that last Orioles package. I certainly don’t think that last Orioles package is a great deal for the Sox but I could live with it and I like that they’re all younger guys than these 24/25 year olds that are continually floated out there.

I’ve been a fan just as long and I’m well aware of their history. All I was saying is that a “quick” retool is far likelier to delay the next playoff appearance than a full rebuild like they did after the 2016 season.

Actually, committing to a rebuild after the 2016 season and making the playoffs in 2020 was not prolonged. For a full teardown that was a relatively quick turnaround.

I’m afraid you’re right and it really sucks because they’ll likely make matters worse and prolong the crappiness of the mlb product. I hope Getz proves us wrong though. This trade will be the real tell imo.

Meh. Eloy had his healthiest season of his career last year and also his worst year so I’m not sure about that. Moncada had one great season and has otherwise been a major disappointment considering his pedigree. Giving early/huge extensions hasn’t affected other top prospects around that same time - Acuna, Tatis, Albies, Robert, etc.

Go back and look at what Moncada and Jimenez did in the minors and compare it to Westburg and Kjerstad. Similar numbers but eloy and Yoan did it at an even younger age. Westburg and Kjerstad haven’t proven anything in mlb. The only way I’d feel good about the Sox not screwing up a position player is if they acquired somebody mlb proven in their mid/late 20s (like Harper, Machado when they were free agents). Even then they’d probably screw them up lol

And to be frank, the Sox have a much better track record of developing young pitchers than they do young position players. Like it’s not even close. Still don’t understand why so many are opposed to a pitching heavy return. If you’re concerned about development then you should be wanting an Adam Eaton type return.

Cease was a 21 year old that hadn’t pitched above A ball yet when they traded for him. He was considered very risky but also had a high ceiling. These are exactly the type of players the Sox should be targeting in this trade.

Many Sox fans wanted those two guys gone two years ago and it has nothing to do with the extensions. Look, Cease was the “riskiest” and had the longest projection of the top prospects the Sox acquired in their 2017/2018 trades - Giolito, López, Jimenez, Moncada, Kopech being the other “premium” prospects. And he turned out to be the best of the bunch. Why would guys like Jones and Hampton be any riskier than Westburg and Kjerstad? Recent history proves otherwise.

Made it to the majors and two guys Sox fans can’t WAIT to get off the team. Sounds great lol

Jones and Hampton aren’t “lottery tickets.” Keep in mind, the Sox had two top 5 mlb prospects in Moncada and Jimenez that were far surer things than any prospects the Orioles currently have outside Holliday and look how that turned out.

If they can’t develop young guys then none of this matters anyways because they’ll always be a terrible team. Jerry isn’t spending Cohen level money.

A couple 2-3 WAR mlb players is a fine return but the timeline makes zero sense. What good is a 3 WAR player like Cease doing for the Sox in 2024 and 2025? They need those players in 2026/2027 and beyond and unfortunately guys like Westburg and Kjerstad are already in their final year of pre arb in 2026. The timeline makes zero sense for the Sox situation. They don’t need this production over the next 2-3 years. They need it at the earliest starting in 2026 but more likely starting in 2027.

Sorry Jimmy but I think trading for guys like Kjerstad and Westburg as the main return is extremely weird and short sighted behavior. Is this team ready to contend this year or next year? If not, then it makes much more sense to acquire younger prospects that are mlb ready in late 2025 and beyond. Why are we wanting guys that turn 25 before this season starts and their service clock has already started given the current state of the Sox? Makes ZERO sense to me.

I’m just not a big fan of Orioles top prospects outside their top 3, mainly because they’re all seemingly in their mid 20s. They’re better suited for a team that’s closer to competing and/or a team that has a bunch of existing prospects in AAA that are mlb ready in 2024. That’s not the Sox situation at all. It’s why the Yankees are such a great match if the Sox can land two 22 year olds in Jones and Hampton. Doesn’t sound like the Yankees are willing to trade Jones though so that really sucks.

Well yea and maybe someone that turns 25 before the season starts shouldn’t be the main piece of a Cease trade. Crazy take I know. Westburg doesn’t move the needle for me at all. He may become a solid mlb regular at 2b or 3b but that doesn’t move the needle for the Sox either.

Doesn’t change the fact that Westburg isn’t a difference maker. That was the original discussion. It’s not as crazy as you might think. Westburg was a top 10 Orioles prospect with a 55 FV last year. López was a top 10 Royals prospect with a 50 FV in the 2018/2019. Westburg is projected for 1.9 fWAR in 2024, López is 0.6. Better? Sure. Big upgrade difference maker? Nah. Especially when you’re subtracting your top pitcher from the team the next two seasons. So yea 101 losses goes to maybe 95 losses next couple seasons maybe worse. And then Westburg starts arb years in 2027. I’d rather have someone younger with more upside personally.

3 WAR player vs 1.5-2 WAR player in López this year and next maybe? That’s not a real difference maker for a 101 loss team that just lost their best SP.