JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Bieber’s best days already behind him?

The good news is that Corbin only has 2+ seasons remaining on his contract and like I said I would assume Nats are eating some percentage of it. Obviously Jerry and most other teams would balk at the requirement of taking on his entire salary in a deal for Soto unless the asking price is greatly reduced. If the Nats eat no money, the combined salary of Soto and Corbin is pretty much what Soto would make on the open market and there would be very little surplus value from the Nats end in such a deal.

I’m not so sure about that. Even teams like the Dodgers have been very mindful of the luxury tax limit in recent years and I’m not sure what a contract like Corbin’s would do to their payroll relative to the limit.

I think the Sox have the bullets to get it done without including Vaughn or Kopech if Corbin is included in the deal as rumored (and I am assuming the Nats eat some of his salary too).

? Conforto does nothing for this team this season and hardly moves the needle for them next season. Soto is exactly the type of player the Sox should be going all in to acquire. An absolute perfect fit for this roster. Send Eloy, Sheets, Martin, and the entire farm system for all I care. Acquiring Soto to man LF everyday makes the Sox a bonafide contender this season and next. Vaughn can DH, spot start in OF and 1b. Engel/Pollock can cover RF well enough, especially when you’ve got them batting 8th in the lineup.

The poster I replied to did. “I’d like someone who can help us right now.” Conforto isn’t helping right now or in two months.

Exactly! That’s how low my expectations are for Conforto this season.

So what? Cody Bellinger basically averaged 5 fWAR between 2017 and 2020 too. Are you expecting Bellinger to produce 5 fWAR next season? Conforto’s play declined last season and he missed the entire season this year due to injury. And yet, you think it’s a given he will produce 2 WAR next season? 4 WAR is an absolute pipedream. Also, let me ask. How many NL free agents have the Sox signed over the last two decades that have come over and exceeded expectations? Grandal last season, yes, but overall I’m guessing his contract will look like fair value when it’s all said and done. In reality, he puts up big WAR numbers but I’ve argued that Grandal’s actual play is worse than advanced metrics would suggest. And lastly, it’s even more ludicrous to think that Conforto can help the Sox now. That’s completely asinine. Forget about him helping this season. If someone signs him it’s for next season. If you want help this season, you’re better off trading for Tyler Naquin.

Josh Harrison and his ~1 WAR/season production on a short term contract at $4.75M AAV is terrifying yet the thought of Conforto at “maybe” 2 WAR/season on a $15M+ AAV contract is a tremendous idea. But I’m the silly one. Ok, sure.

Well yea, somewhat the same scenario, which is why I didn’t want the Sox to bring Rodon back at $20M AAV or whatever he got. Is Conforto willing to sign a league min salary like Kopech? If so, sure bring him in. I’m not willing to wager $15M+ AAV on such a high risk. I guess you are. And that’s why we have a difference of opinion.

Haha, that’s true!

It’s always been about health for Kopech and Rodon. If they’re healthy, they will perform at a high level because the stuff is there. Conforto is a one trick pony imo declining defense, below average baserunner, limited positional flexibility. If the bat doesn’t play, he’s a more expensive Eloy.

Not me. Rather take my chances with what they’ve already got than take on another dead weight contract. Don’t need another corner OF/DH type unless it’s a big upgrade like Nimmo.

Some of it is deserved though. Like Grandal. I’d dump him for nothing if someone would take his salary. Then again, I’ve never been a big fan of Grandal and even less so after watching him play more often over the past three seasons. But that’s a different topic altogether. Forget Conforto, go get Soto (with Nimmo as the fall back option).

I’ve been one of Kopech’s biggest supporters so no. I am not a fan of Rodon. He was great last season and had a good first half this season but I still don’t trust his arm to hold up. And I think the Sox have far bigger issues elsewhere on the roster outside of the starting rotation. If you want to give Rodon his next 4 year, $100M+ contract after next season (if he stays healthy), good luck to you fine sir.

Exactly. There’s no consistency from people on here. They just want to complain about what the Sox have and always think the grass is greener elsewhere. News flash, the grass isn’t always greener and the odds are very high that 99% of Soxtalk would be complaining about Conforto one year from now if they signed him.

Ban bet? I guarantee he asks $15M+ AAV and very likely gets it too.

Then sign Nimmo. Simple. Conforto is fool’s gold.

Age isn’t everything. Sure looks like guys like Bellinger, Bryant, and Baez peaked when they were young. Guys like Semien, Hendriks, JD Martinez didn’t peak until later in their careers. It’s certainly possible Conforto’s best days are already behind him much like Corbin, Grandal, Keuchel, and Lynn.

What about this season or last? How relevant is pre-2020 at this point? What price are you willing to pay? Because he’s gonna ask $15M+ AAV.

Then why do a bunch of people on this site want to trade Moncada? Or Grandal? Those guys were amazing as recently as last season.

Oh yea. Using that logic, we should take Patrick Corbin off the hands of the Nationals. You know because he was good like 3 years ago. And I sure hope you aren’t one of those guys that wants to trade Grandal, Moncada, or Eloy. Because those guys have been great at some point within the past 5 years.

Sox are on pace for ~1.5 fWAR out of RF this season. Assuming Conforto will outperform that mark next season is a big assumption and an unnecessary risk for a marginal upgrade at best.

Harrison was 2.2 last season and 0.2 the season before. 2.4 in total. Conforto was 1.4 and 2.0. 3.4 in total. One coming off a major injury and missed season, the other not. One much more expensive in dollar terms as well. I don’t understand the logic to detesting the Harrison signing but advocating for a Conforto signing. Both are marginal upgrades but one is cheap at least.

That’s a YUGE assumption. I’ll take the under on a 1.4 fWAR betting line for next season. That’s a marginal upgrade at best.