JUSTgottaBELIEVE

I’m not losing sleep over Dane Dunning. He turns 26 this month, has already had TJS, was a borderline top 100 prospect, and was absolutely brutal in his last 3 starts at the end of the 2020 season when we needed him most. Could he be a solid mid rotation starter? Sure. But so could Crochet, Kopech, Cease, Kelley, Thompson, Steiver, etc. Or the Sox could simply sign one that’s more trustworthy to me than Dunning in 2021 like Quintana for truly “just money” while not breaking the bank.

Read subsequent posts. What was Dunning’s FV heading into the shortened 2020 season? You seem to be attributing a tremendous increase in Dunning’s value based on an extremely SSS and starts against terrible teams like KC and Pitt. He had one really good start against a good hitting team whoop dee do. If we’re being honest about the assessment here, we are taking his 2020 numbers with a grain of salt and looking at his prospect ranking heading into last season, which wasn’t all that much better than guys like Kelley and Thompson.

And by the way, 55 FV for Dunning is extremely generous. Fangraphs has him at 45 FV.

And the average 55 FV pitcher like Dunning achieves 3.7 WAR (median 2.2 WAR). Sounds like you’re the one reaching here.

According to that article, the average WAR for a 55 FV pitcher is 3.7 (which I believe Dunning was heading into 2020). Not much better than that second round pick eh? And certainly nowhere near the 15-25 over 6 season “assumption” you’ve been putting out there...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

And tbh, assuming someone like Dunning is going to be worth 15-25 WAR over the next 6 seasons is silly. If we are going to play the game of second round picks only average 5 WAR over their careers or whatever, odds are someone like Dunning at this point in his career is more likely to reach less than 10 WAR for his career than 15+. If we are going to go by the odds and historical averages. Just sayin

He’s still worth something. I know Mazara didn’t work out but he was traded for the Sox 2018 2nd round pick. Someone like Thompson could easily land you a high leverage reliever in July.

Ok, Matthew Thompson org no. 7 prospect 2019 second rounder.

True. So it would be like losing Jared Kelley, org no. 5 prospect and 55 FV. That’s still “something.”

It’s a comp pick after the first round, no? Better than a second round pick. Jared Kelley was a second round pick for the Sox in 2020. Will he turn out better than Dunning? Probably not but he very well could. There’s a reason many teams have shied away from signing free agents with QO attached (and also why the union wants that rule changed). Because those lost draft picks have real value.

What information did I leave out? It’s everyone else leaving out relevant info by saying signing Bauer is “just money”. That’s factually incorrect. No opinions. Just wrong. You can downplay the value of the lost draft pick but it’s certainly worth “something”

You missed the point

It’s still something. It’s not “only money”

Why do people keep saying Bauer “only costs money”? Are you all forgetting the draft pick compensation? A pick that won’t be far behind #29 overall where Dunning was once selected.

How’s that Yankees starting rotation looking? Sox offense isn’t much worse than the Yankees (it was better in 2020). Yankees are likely to lose one of their best hitters from last season.

Seriously? How do you figure?

It’s still December. What have the Twins, Indians, Rays, and Yankees done to improve so far?

The king of sample sizes is comparing two players during covid shortened seasons? Interesting. I’m not in love with the move but for the first time since Eaton was traded I’m expecting a positive WAR value from our starting RF. Small victories

By all accounts, Edwin was a great guy but that doesn’t mean I wanted him back. The good guy/bad guy stuff is overrated. Eaton was an important piece in the Nationals World Series team just last year.

Yea, I don’t love it but I don’t hate it. Could end up being great value for 2021 if he returns to 2019 form. He was the #2 hitter on a World Series winner 13 months ago. I don’t care what their 2020 seasons looked like, this is an upgrade from Mazara.

A difference of $10M over two seasons? Sox have blown $10M on far worse signings in the past. A difference of $5M AAV shouldn’t have a significant impact on financial flexibility.

Not true. Doesn’t signing Bauer cost you a draft pick?

I’d be all over 2/$30M. I’d even do 2/$40M tbh. Keep the top 3 together thru 2023.

Exactly