Vance Law

Unintentional intentional walk to Abreu?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 10, 2014 -> 03:11 PM) Seriously...anyone writing this didn't watch Garcia's dive last week. Unless someone got him to stop doing that, he was going to damage something while diving. Yeah, I thought the one last week when he had to come out of the game looked worse. Faceplant and all.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 9, 2014 -> 03:45 AM) Puig. Cabrera. Bo Jackson. Yeah, I'm with you on those as far as their opposite field power. But with guys like Puig, Bo Jackson, Vlad Guerrero, they're super strong guys with (esp. Puig, Vlad) a lot of plate coverage, but when you watch them it looks like they are hacking up there. Some violent slugging. With Abreu on that one it looks like he just places the bat where the ball's going to be and it's gone. Don't want to compare him to people like Cabrera or Frank, but his swing just looks so controlled. Effortless power the other way.

I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but Abreu just seems to be such a really impressive hitter to me. Look at those 2 home runs- on that first one, he gets the first curveball he's seen on the 12th pitch of the at bat, pulls his arms in and golfs it out of the park. But that second one, who else hits a ball outside like that, and the swing looks so under control, and the ball just jumps out of the park. He's got those 2 swings in his arsenal and they couldn't be more different. He's got a lot of natural talent and obviously strength, but it just looks like he's got this down to a science.

Is that 7 straight hits for Flowers?

Also helps keep salaries of our young relievers down in the years to come. The save is a pretty silly stat and it's effect on salary is absurd.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 29, 2014 -> 10:47 AM) As I stated months ago, the odd man out with Konerko coming back is Jordan Danks. Is Jordan Danks better off playing every day in Charlotte or being the 5th OF in Chicago? Konerko and his .900+OPS takes Dunn's spot vs. LHP. Whine all you want about it, but it isn't weakening the team. Exactly. Well said.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 08:25 PM) Yes, if you check his service time right now it's like 0.027 years or something like that. That would add in to his super-2 count if he is sent back down and called up again later this year. aha, got it. Thanks

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 05:41 PM) I think the number is actually unknown because the Super-2 deadline depends on what everyone else's numbers are as well. The rule is that the player must be in the top 22% of players that year for service time accrued. Generally that translates to guys having to wait until early July to come up. Since Semien was also up last year, it's possible this 2 weeks could require keeping him in the minors through part of early August. A September call-up is counted as well?

Someone with more mastery of arbitration clock details help me out- so assume Semien starts the season in Chicago for 2 weeks and goes down to Charlotte when Beckham comes off the DL. The # of days he was with the big league club count towards his arbitration status. What, roughly, is the threshold for # of days this season that would mean we get an extra year out of him before free agency?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 10:25 AM) I just want to point this out, something to think about... Adrian Nieto last year, age 23, 6th MiLB year, High A: .282/.371/.446, 11 HR, 18.3% K/PA Kevan Smith last year, age 24, 3rd MiLB year, High A: .286/.370/.484, 12 HR, 14.9% K/PA Offensively, I am not convinced Nieto is any better than Smith at this point. In fact I'm fairly sure I'd take Smith's bat over Nieto. Defensively, Smith was considered raw, but also has improved and there are positive reports about his pitcher handling. His CS% in 2012 (2013 I can't find) was 33%, and he had 14 PB in 92 games. Nieto is considered better defensively overall, and the pitchers seem to like him in camp (which is big), but.... His CS% in 2012 (I can't find 2013 data) was 32%. He had 14 PB in 85 games. Numbers aren't the full story of course, especially with catchers. But looking at the body of work, I am not sure Nieto is any better as a total package than Kevan Smith would be. Similar hit and OBP results, Smith more power, Smith better contact rate, similar CS% numbers, and defensively I think Nieto may be at best only slightly better. And Nieto has had 3 more years to develop. Why are people convinced Nieto is ready for the majors and Smith isn't? "Ready" is a relative term. Nieto is in the majors because it's the only way we could steal him from the Nats and we're a rebuilding team so it doesn't matter what actually happens in the season. I will bet, though, that Nieto puts up a better OBP than Phegley's .223 last year. There were like 7 or 8 pitchers who were better hitters than Phegley last year.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Mar 23, 2014 -> 08:52 PM) I'm agreeing. Holding out tiny hope that he'll be tradeable for SOMEthing, and dreaming of a Dempster-like classy move that I know is the longest of shots. The nonstop ugliness could conceivably drive him into thinking that $45M or so was a big enough theft, and that he'd done enough damage to the franchise already, but certainly not expecting it. You're thinking he can't put up the numbers he did last year?

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Mar 23, 2014 -> 05:50 PM) You pointed out how he predicted 90 wins last year which was completely unrelated to the topic of discussion. Then when he asked how many wins you predicted you reply with " no comment". So yes, you did point the finger. This concludes today's psychology lesson. I feel like a nice Marty change of topic reply to this would be "if Sale gets injured, the Sox waited too long to trade him."

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 23, 2014 -> 03:36 PM) I hear ya, but his fate has been sealed for a bit now it seems. I get the Konerko re-signing, but this roster a week before the opener is a mess for a team that is rebuilding. Guys like Danks and Wilkins are guys they should be finding AB's for. Instead they want to keep Dunn in an attempt to save an insignificant amount of dollars. I was kinda joking, pointing out that numbers put up in an extremely insignificant number of at bats in March in Arizona are meaningless. Andy Wilkins has half a season of AAA under his belt where he put up a .735 OPS. Adam Dunn is 4th in MLB in home runs over the last 2 seasons.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 23, 2014 -> 11:23 AM) Danks did not deserve to be sent down. What about Andy Wilkins?

Something I hadn't noticed about Nieto until now is that he owns an impressive 11.7% walk rate over his minor league career. I think he's made the backup catcher and he'll put up an OBP better than Phegley's .223 last year.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 17, 2014 -> 02:36 PM) Dunn does have a chance at a mostly empty and very low batting average I think you misunderstand the term "empty" respective to batting average. It tends to be used for a singles-only type hitter. While the average might be high, it is relatively empty if the player fails to hit home runs and other extra base hits. Dunn is the opposite. He'll have a low batting average, but it won't be "mostly empty." In an atmosphere of declining home run totals around the league, Dunn is 4th in baseball in HR over the past 2 seasons.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 10, 2014 -> 02:47 PM) There have been several teams - the Pirates notably, but others as well - that have used non-traditional LFers out there and gotten great results because they've saved runs defensively. The Sox did this with Pierre for a year too (though the next, he was awful in LF). Yep. I also seem to remember the White Sox winning a World Series with a Scott Pod-something out there. For those worried about a Viciedo for Saunders trade, it's not going to happen. It just doesn't make sense based on their ages, Sox positional needs, etc. But, yes, Saunders is better than Jordan Danks. And he's been the better player than Viciedo. Not really that close either.

I don't think I see this trade happening. But I don't know where people are getting the Saunders is bad or Saunders is a worse hitter than Viciedo stuff. 2012 OPS+ Viciedo 98 Saunders 108 2013 OPS+ Viciedo 94 Saunders 106 Saunders has clearly been the better hitter in each of the 2 full seasons both has played. Saunders is clearly the better defender, playing 200 games in CF the last 2 years. He's also clearly the better baserunner.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 05:41 PM) It is silly to judge a player by the role that the media assigns him. His ability or lack of ability to be a "power hitter" is just one factor of his value. A run saved is a run earned. How is citing OPS and "power hitting third baseman" less "apple & oranges" than citing fWAR -- a league-adjusted, era-adjusted, park-adjusted, context neutral statistic that is designed precisely for the purpose of being "apples to apples?" But the point about playing time is valid. WAR is a counting stat. So we should use career rates, which should address all concerns of arbitrary endpoints and outliers (Moustakas +18 2012): Beckham has been a better offensive contributor by 3 runs per season (-8.18 RAA/500PA against -11.45) Moustakas has been a better defender by a 7.7 runs per season (8.3 UZR/150 against 0.6) The difference? Moustakas has been a better player by 4.7 runs per season. And this is beside the fact that Moustakas is almost exactly two years younger with almost exactly 2 years less experience, which leads to the very reasonable implication that he has more upside. So, Moustakas has been better to date and has more upside. What am I missing? How is Moustakas not demonstrably > Beckham? I see now that you are not the poster who claimed Moustakas was more valuable because "power hitting 3B is harder to find than a second baseman." That was my initial impetus to join this discussion- That the power hitting 3B had a similar SLG to our second baseman. Feel free to ignore my mention of Moustakas' OPS. But you are making a different argument now. I refuted your claim that Moustakas was better than Beckham in their best seasons as well as in 2013. The opposite was true. Beckham was demonstrably better. Moustakas was demonstrably playing in more games. Moustakas may well end up the better player, or he may never hit. I don't know. If I had to put my money on anything, it'd be that Moustakas won't routinely put up the defensive number he did in 2012, which is currently accounting for the big part of his career value. Skewing it perhaps. But if he ever actually hits, he'll make that point moot.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 02:30 PM) It remains silly to have both of them on the same roster this season. This is a myopic view of the situation that does not consider a number of important factors including injury contingencies, trade value, and the dynamic supply and demand situation of players throughout the season. Is my opinion.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 02:06 PM) If you're going to go there, you have to note that Moustakas has played 2.5 seasons, and Beckham has played just under 5. So we could say almost half of Moustakas' career is good seasons, and only 20% of Beckham's. There are lots of ways to cherry pick the numbers. The reality is that of his two full seasons, Moustakas' best season is significantly better than Beckham's best season (which was four years ago and not even a full season), and his bad season is better than all of Beckham's four other seasons. They have both been dissapointing on some level, but it seems pretty cut and dried to me that Beckham is worse. There are lots of ways to cherry pick the numbers, and you have done that. If you want to compare Beckham and Moustakas' respective best seasons using only fWAR, you are making an apples to oranges comparison. Moustakas needed 149 games and 614 PA to accumulate 3.1 WAR while Beckham only had 103 games and 430 PA to accrue 2.5 WAR On a per game or per PA basis, Beckham was the better and more valuable player. On top of it, he was playing out of position at 3rd base. The exact same argument (excluding the Beckham at 3B) applies to 2013 when Beckham played 103 games to Moustakas' 136 but still only bested Beckham 1.1 to 1.0 on raw fWAR. Beckham on average was the better player last year. Moustakas is a "power hitting" third baseman who hasn't yet topped a .708 OPS. All of his value thus far is tied up in his defense and I for one tend to think his +18 in 2012 is an anomaly or downright incorrect. I'll believe it when he repeats it.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 5, 2014 -> 10:22 AM) Moustakas has been demonstrably better than Beckham. 2011 Moustakas: 84 wRC+, -1.1DRAA, 0.2 fWAR Beckham: 72 wRC+, 4.9 DRAA, 0.5 fWAR 2012 Moustakas: 89 wRC+, 18.0 DRAA, 3.1 fWAR Beckham: 80 wRC+, 3.7 DEF runs, 0.9 fWAR 2013: Moustakas: 77 wRC+, 9.0 DRAA, 1.1 fWAR Beckham: 88 wRC+, 1.0 DRAA, 1.0 fWAR Not exactly. A more accurate way of describing it would be Beckham ('09) and Moustakas ('12) have each only had one good season in their careers.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 4, 2014 -> 05:11 PM) Gordon Beckham sucks, and even though Pederson is better than Semien, we actually need Semien more. Unless you're ready to give up on Viciedo, which... If they want Guerrero to start in AAA, I can think of a short-term stopgap named Keppinger...