Vance Law

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 6, 2014 -> 11:27 AM) I'm pretty sure that Jason Castro is worth more than Quintana. Castro is under control for the next 3 years. Quintana's under control for 5 years.

QUOTE (GREEDY @ Jan 3, 2014 -> 01:53 PM) White Sox fans do not deserve a "feel good curtain call" for PK. the Gilaspie/Davidson platoon at 3B that I want to see Did you mean Keppinger? Davidson will not be platooned. Zero chance of that.

QUOTE (professa @ Dec 31, 2013 -> 01:41 AM) That's not fair. Conor is left handed, so a better question to ask is if Davidson can put up a .736 ops against lefties. But the reality is 3/4 of the starters the Sox will face are right handed.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 31, 2013 -> 12:00 AM) If Davidson has a better spring than Connor are you prepared to release Gillaspie for nothing? I don't think the small sample size of spring training is completely determinative unless it's a very extreme difference. Do you think Davidson will put up a .736 OPS against right handers over a full year next year? But if they were to make Davidson the starter out of spring training they may as well send Keppinger plus $7.5 million to who'll ever take him. He would literally have no purpose on the team at that point.

QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 11:51 PM) Not much left for Davidson to prove in AAA. I don't quite get this sentence that I see on the board a lot. Who has what to prove and where is not the only factor in making roster decisions. Hahn will not be fined by the league for violating the "stuff left to prove clause" if this 22 year old starts in AAA. Also, stuff he has left to prove: An .830 OPS in the PCL from a third baseman is not exactly superstar. As I've noted before, Gillaspie bested that. Our new light hitting center fielder put up a .995 OPS in that league. All reports also suggest he's not yet a gold glover either.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 08:11 PM) Quite simply, this would be a really poor use of De Aza. Maybe on a very compeitve team with a solid but elderly or injury prone of, but this just doesn't fit these guys. Perhaps, but a) for how long? and b) what's the difference? a) What percentage likelihood do you think there is that Dunn finishes the 2014 season with the Sox? I'd put it at close to zero he's here past the all-star break. So we're talking about half a season where there's some shuffling of 4 outfielders before a roster spot opens up. As I've mentioned before, the Dodgers and Yankees sure see this set-up as feasible and with some much higher profile outfielders. b) I see zero reason for Davidson (or Semien for that matter) to start the season in the big leagues. I see zero downside to having "too many players" (aka options) in the middle of a roster turnaround like this. I see no necessary positional changes prior to opening day other than perhaps a catcher upgrade. If a very good deal comes along for one of our guys, that's great. If it doesn't, there's no downside in waiting until some other team (or our own) has a need due to injury. Dunn is gone by midseason. Konerko's gone at the end of the year and I really can't see Keppinger playing the 2015 season with the Sox- if he hasn't improved his value before then I really assume he'll be dumped on whoever takes him. That's 3 spots I fully expect to open up in the next calendar year, along with Gillaspie I bet, once some team develops a need for a 3Bman/platoon partner. No need to hustle De Aza out the door.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Dec 29, 2013 -> 09:49 PM) No I agree. Both versions of Adam Dunn suck is what I'm saying. The fact that he himself said the "stupid, stubborn ways" comment infuriates me. He's so lucky to be playing pro ball and is paid tons of money to be the absolute best Adam Dunn he can possibly be. Saying "SSW" comes across as a guy not trying his hardest- unacceptable right? He's not a tough out Balta. Concede that point brother It's just a little weird when people set out to dissect the Sox admittedly terrible offense last year and select Adam Dunn to criticize first. While Dunn is obviously a less than perfect hitter, he was the Sox most productive hitter last year. Have you already made posts about every one of the rest of the hitters (aside from Rios)? And it's difficult to understand what is meant by "tough out" or how you're defining that. Is Alexei more of a tough out than Adam Dunn? Alexei makes outs more frequently than Dunn. Their entire careers as well as last year. That isn't some complicated advanced statistic that says that, it's on-base percentage. Is it ok if you make outs more often so long as they are "tough"? Wouldn't "ultimately makes outs less frequently" imply a "tough out"?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 27, 2013 -> 02:34 PM) (That, by the way, does not mean that Uribe's contract was anything other than bad). I agree

QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 10:02 AM) The offensive values are compared to others who play the same position, so the middle infielder thing doesn't hold. So Beckham joins Alexei and other recent White Sox infielders who've been more important defensively. The aforementioned -30 Alexei, career -46 Joe Crede, career -119 Juan Uribe who just signed a $15 million contract. For Beckham's career 5.4 WAR we've paid him $4.8 million.

QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 11:02 AM) The offensive values are compared to others who play the same position, so the middle infielder thing doesn't hold. If that is the case, I was not aware. Does Fangraphs describe that methodology somewhere?

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 06:37 PM) Any stat that says Alexei has been a negative offensive contributor out of the SS positions gets a nice gob of sloppy brown and swirls down to meet the rest of its family in the septic tank. The person who originally posted the stat wasn't taking position into account.

QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 04:51 PM) People really like to select data during certain time periods that make Beckham look good. It's called confirmation bias. Me, I like aggregating data. What I know is this: In nearly 2500 major league ABs, Gordon Beckham is a -40.5 offensive player. Think about that. He is an atrocious, s***ty baseball player. Alexei is a -30 offensive player. Keppinger is a -36 offensive player. Nick Punto is a -76 offensive player. Another term for s***ty is 'middle infielder'. It's not being arbitrarily selective to say Beckham clearly had is best year last year since he was a rookie. It's also not being arbitrarily selective to say that he clearly played differently before and after his quad injury. Beckham's merely been a below average starting second baseman since his second year. Valuable with the glove, subpar with the bat, all for no money. Fans' hyperbole about him being "atrocious" is 100% an emotional reaction to him not achieving their hopes for him based on his exceptional rookie year.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Dec 22, 2013 -> 09:06 PM) J.R. Murphy is not very good, I don't know why anyone would give up anything of value for him. I'd rather have Phegley and Nieto. When was the last time the Sox had a catcher who put up a .773 OPS at AAA as a 22 year old? For example, did Phegley do that?

QUOTE (glangon @ Dec 22, 2013 -> 07:53 PM) Bad move IMO He hit worse than Flowers in the majors. When Flowers was 27. When he was Murphy's age, Flowers was in A+ ball. QUOTE (glangon @ Dec 22, 2013 -> 07:53 PM) Bad move IMO He hit a lot worse than Phegley in the minors. When Phegley was 25. When he was 22 like Murphy, he'd only played 18 games at AA.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 19, 2013 -> 06:08 PM) Assuming good defense, I can see a team like this competing: Eaton - .270/.350/.400 Ramirez - .270/.330/.370 Dunn - .240/.340/.500 (350-450 PAs); Konerko - .300/.375/.475 (125-150 PAs) Abreu - .300/.400/.500 Garcia - .280/.330/.445 Viciedo - .260/.310/.440 Beckham - .260/.320/.380 Davidson - .230/.300/.425 [catcher] - .240/.300/.375 Sale - 220 IP, 3.00 ERA Quintana - 210 IP, 3.25 ERA Johnson - 180 IP, 3.75 ERA Danks - 200 IP, 4.00 ERA Paulino/whoever - 180 IP, 4.00 ERA bullpen ERA - 3.00 I don't think any of that is unreasonable, and I think some guys can improve on those numbers, but I don't think all of the guys reaching those numbers is likely at all. That team would have a run differential of around +200. I'd hope we could compete with a team that's quite a bit worse than that.

Unless we get a really good trade offer, have him and De Aza split time in left field. Dunn will not play the whole season with the Sox (except in the very unlikely event they're actually competing). It doesn't make sense to desperately unload De Aza or Viciedo when there will be an open spot halfway through the season at the latest, sooner if any one of 7 players gets injured. What is the argument for dumping an asset before opening day that you're going to wish you had halfway through the season. If it's no big deal for the Yankees to have 15 outfielders on their roster (Beltran, Suzuki, Gardner, Ellsbury, Wells, not even counting Soriano), or the Dodgers with Kemp, Ethier, Crawford, Puig, it's no big deal for the Sox to carry an extra guy/insurance policy for half a season.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Dec 18, 2013 -> 01:45 PM) I don't think either DeAza or Viciedo is a starting OF for a championship team John Jay was a starting OF for a championship team. So was Andres Torres. And Gregor Blanco and Juan Encarnacion...

QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 08:52 PM) There's nothing left for Davidson to prove in AAA and he already played 30 games in MLB and looked rather competent. I suppose he could prove he can put forth a better offensive showing than an .830 OPS in the PCL. Gillaspie, for example, went for .842 in 2011. And Adam Eaton .995 in 2012. More than one of Keppinger, De Aza, Viciedo, Dunn, and Gillaspie will be traded between now and the end of the 2014 season. There isn't any reason all of that needs to be done before opening day. Relevant baseball events such as players getting injured (on our team and others) and teams finding themselves either contending or not-contending. As those things happen, what to do with our superfluous players will become more clear. The main scenario where Semien and/or Davidson make sense on the opening day starting roster is if Gillaspie and/or Beckham go in a deal for a lefty catcher.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 10:12 AM) I think there's a very good chance De Aza gets moved as well. It kinda makes sense to hold onto him until after Choo comes off the market Not to mention the Gardner/Suzuki market and the Ethier/Kemp market

QUOTE (oldsox @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 07:09 PM) Been thinking a lot about this trade for two days now, and I don't think I would have made it. Reed is a very good closer, only going to get better. His ERA got too high because of 2-3 really bad outings. He took the ball and saved 40 games for a lousy team. The kid has guts and big time experience. I would have kept him. Dbacks got a good deal, IMO. Prior to Reed, we built a closer out of a former shortstop. He pitched even better than Reed. There is probably no "position" in baseball more overvalued than closer. Also, we didn't give Reed away for free.

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 06:16 PM) Whaddaya think the chances are this kid is going to start right away? I assume he will start in AAA. He's just 22. I think Gillaspinger is better production in 2014 than Davidson. Even if we manage to unload Keppinger, I think Davidson is at Charlotte until he forces his way onto the roster, there's an injury, or a trade (prob during the season). There simply is no rush for Davidson or Semien unless a very inviting trade offer comes along for Beckham or 3B. Otherwise, you stick with the people you're paying and allow them to build up their trade value with good play, or crash badly enough that the AAA callup would be an improvement.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 05:52 PM) Then we shouldn't have traded for 2 righties from Arizona who play the only positions we had lefty starters at or signed a righty pinch hitter/DH to fill in that vital role. Eaton's a lefty

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 04:31 PM) He was also #138 of 140 (using qualified only) in batting average and in strikeouts. #98 of 140 in OBP. Even his SLG was #62 of 140. OPS was 69 of 140, or almost exactly middle of the pack. I certainly never made the argument that he was good at any other thing. Simply that in an environment where home run power has fallen off a cliff, being one of the only guys possessing that ability is valuable. Dunn's 75 homers the last 2 years is better than anyone other than Cabrera, Davis, and Encarnacion. It is not $15 million valuable if you don't do anything else well, but if he can simply do no better than what he's been doing, there will be American League teams looking to add him mid-season. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 04:31 PM) He hit some homers, but he sure wasn't very productive with them. Not sure what this means, unless you meant 'he wasn't a productive hitter aside from all the home runs he hit'

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 05:02 PM) I don't think it's just PED testing that has lowered the HR rates. I think they have done something to the ball. In fact, wouldn't doing something to the ball make MLB look good in the court of public opinion? It would definitely help make their PED testing program look a lot more successful. It wasn't just hitters using PEDs. Lots of pitchers as well. I wasn't making an argument about PEDs exclusively. Just that Dunn's one of the only baseball players who can hit 30 home runs. Period. edit: I haven't given any thought to a de-juiced ball theory, but I don't think that would explain why strikeouts have increased so much.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 11:53 PM) Dunn has no value to us. Last year Dunn was one of 12 baseball players to hit 30 home runs. In 2000, for example, 47 guys hit 30 home runs. There is value in being one of the only guys in the league who has home run power.