Vance Law

Salty's got a career .795 OPS against right handed pitchers. Platoon him with Phegley. That's a huge upgrade over last year. I think Hahn will make a serious effort to get it done.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 3, 2013 -> 01:33 PM) Since you brought up WAR...that statistic says "absolutely and he'd be worth even more than that". Depending on how precisely you think the advanced defensive metrics gauge value, but yes he would likely get that money on the free agent market. My point would be more is it worth it to the Sox to be paying that much for a guy unlikely to be the shortstop on the next Sox playoff team. I suppose that depends on whether or not Hahn is constructing a team to legitimately hope to contend in 2014 or whether he's putting in place people he hopes to be the long term solutions (Avisail, Abreu, Semien) but who probably are not there yet. He seems to be suggesting there won't be any big free agent signings, so people's hope of an upgrade to McCann seem less likely. We'll see what happens. But if the team is more like 2 years away, I say move Alexei's $$ because a) it's kind of a lot and b) we probably wouldn't have to eat any of it.

QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 08:52 PM) Gordon quite clearly had unbelievably lucky run of soft hits and bloops when he came off the DL. He had a career high 23.2% line drive rate and a career low 7.6% infield fly rate.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 08:33 PM) Did you actually just complain about the number of WAR Viciedo has put up and then immediately turn around and complain about Ramirez's offense in a vacuum without considering the position and defense? Nope. I didn't complain about anything, but I did offer suggestions for higher-priority complaints than Beckham. And with regard to Ramirez, rather than in a vacuum, I specifically put the issue in context of his $9.5 million paycheck. Does the combination of his good [if increasingly error-prone] defense at short and his lacking offense warrant $9.5 million?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 07:44 PM) Why do I think that if you'd compared Beckhams ops over the last 2 years to league average, instead of sneaking in his rookie year, you'd tell a different story? I didn't sneak anything anywhere. The only number I used was the average OPS for AL second basemen the past 2 years: .682 in 2012, .707 in 2013. Beckham's .694 in an injury-plagued 2013 combined with his defensive value adds up to about league average in my book. He was having a very good season well into August despite playing through those injuries. But my point stands: anyone bothering to complain about Gordon Beckham should only be doing so after they've already spent a bunch of time complaining about our 3rd basemen, our catchers, Adam Dunn, Viciedo's 1.1 total WAR through 1200 career PAs, and Alexei Ramirez making $9.5 million next year despite worse offense than Beckham each of the past 2 years (and the most errors in the AL this year)

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 10:44 PM) The guy has over 2,000 AB's in the majors. At what point are you going to give up? His career OPS in the those 2000+ AB's is .697. That's clearly a good enough sample size to determine that he isn't a quality starting player in the majors. I'm not even saying Semien is the answer (really hope he is but who knows), but I can say with confidence that Beckham isn't the guy. Time to move on, its time to move on from a lot of guys on this team. League average OPS for an American League second baseman over the last 2 years is .695. If you have time to complain about a league average second baseman earning way less than a league average salary it must mean you've got a bunch of all-stars at the other positions.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to sell low on Beckham and I doubt it happens. We wouldn't get value. Anyone who's "confident" Semien would outplay Beckham next year is a silly person. Semien's played 1 month at AAA. He hit well, but not nearly as well as Phegley did there for half a season. We've all seen what a can't-miss predictor of success that is. No one's a bigger Semien fan than me, but it'd be great to see him have more than a month of success at AAA. Despite having wrist surgery, Beckham was hitting .346 with an .828 OPS on July 13 after the 1st game of a double header. He left the second game with a quad injury. He didn't play 6 out of the next 8 games. It clearly negatively affected his play, but he played through it and on Aug 20 he was still hitting .300 with a .765 OPS. League average for the AL was .707 for a second baseman last year. As of Aug 20, did he "need a change of scenery"? He obviously had a crap month from there on to finish the injury plagued season somewhere in the neighborhood of league average for a 2nd baseman. He's more than outperformed his small salary every year.

Well half as devil's advocate, half because I think the Sox have been leaving the door open, and half because hey, who doesn't love Paulie, I'll make a case for him. Yes, that's 3 halves. Konk was the best Sox hitter against lefties last year with a .923 OPS. Rios was also excellent but is now gone. De Aza somehow put up a nice upside-down split and Garcia was good in a very small sample. After that you had Viciedo with a .709 OPS and it gets worse from there (Ramirez, Beckham, Dunn, Keppinger, the catchers). Without question, something close to a Dunn-Konerko platoon is a productive and more preferable setup than Dunn alone. The only debatable topic is whether or not carrying Konerko as a 25th man is a worthwhile use of roster space. His clubhouse presence/mentoring and historical importance to the ball club obviously adds value, though difficult to quantify. Either way, it doesn't seem stranger than Giambi playing 4 seasons with the Rockies. They carried two old, lefty first baseman. In the league without a DH. For 4 years. They could offer Konk an incentive-based (PAs and/or days not on the DL) contract that doesn't break the bank. If his back is affecting him as much as last year, that should mean a trip to the DL. The thought being that if he's legitimately healthy he should be productive, especially if he's not expected to play 150 games. Perhaps his limited playing time helps his health and he's back to his old self against righties (he hit righties better than lefties in 2012).

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 28, 2013 -> 04:18 PM) This is not including Avisail Garcia and Jose Abreu, as mentioned above. If they were included, it'd be top 15 simply due to their ceilings. Looks like they did include Garcia

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 21, 2013 -> 09:08 PM) but it's still not going to put butts in the seats either way. Sox fans have always shown that winning is the only way to get them to show up And that's pretty much how it would be anywhere else and how it should be. If Abreu comes in and is an impressive offensive force and is making headlines from the get go and/or the Sox are winning games, people will show up.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 04:21 PM) There is also a chance to trade Dunn and eat salary if it means Konerko coming back. I really do not care either way but there is the White Sox loyalty. If you're eating salary to move someone, make it Keppinger. Less salary to eat.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 03:52 PM) The only problem is that you only get four bench players. If you have one that is only a catcher and one that is only a 1B/DH, it puts a lot of pressure on the other two to cover a lot of positions. L. Garcia can play everything but catcher. Plus Jordan Danks.

I still think there is a decent chance they make a Konk/Dunn platoon at DH/1B. With all of the talk we heard about "would Konerko accept more limited playing time" and "mentoring younger players." Someone in another thread said they thought a potential Abreu signing (it happened!) meant the Sox move Dunn and eat some salary. What makes more sense to me is eating some of Keppinger's salary to move him, he's only owed 8 mil to Dunn's 15. If nothing else on the roster changes (but I bet it will) a Gillaspie/L. Garcia platoon and a Dunn/Konk platoon makes you a better team than Gillaspie/Keppinger and Dunn/Dunn.

QUOTE (Jake @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 02:05 AM) DeJesus is basically ADA without the dumb He is about to turn 34 as well. And wouldn't we be giving up our second round pick?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 09:05 PM) Remember that $50 million of that was the posting fee that went to the Japanese franchise he was under contract with. Ah right. So Dice-K was the most money ever spent to acquire an international player, but this would be the biggest contract.

QUOTE (mataipaepae @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 08:52 PM) http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/jose...n-contract.html The deal would be the largest contract ever for an international free agent. It would easily surpass the six-year, $42MM deal Yasiel Puig received from the Dodgers last June. Do Japanese players not count as "international free agents"? Not being sarcastic, is there a different designation for them? I thought Dice-K got like $100 million.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 03:09 PM) There are some people who question this, saying he might be like a .250 30 homer, .800 OPS guy, which is better than your run of the mill 1B but not by much. Right. League average 1B put up a .776 OPS last year. An Adam Laroche. And what does a guy like that get on the FA market (requiring a loss of draft pick)? 12 million a year. Granted, Laroche isn't locking up a 6 year commitment, but Abreu is only 26. $10 -$12 million for a league average firstbaseman's 26 - 32 years is a pretty reasonable deal. Obviously there's a small chance he's a total bust, but I doubt it. Some chance he's a star, but if not, the deal is fine for some who's just solid.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 03:27 AM) Would have expected to see Bourjos, Marte, a couple of others....what was Billy Hamilton in his limited appearances? That huge outfield explains Florimon and Dozier. JB Shuck and Bautista? Hmmm. Bourjos was 56%. Had less than 200 plate appearances. Hamilton 100%. 5 for 5 scoring from 2nd on single, no surprise. Also realized that link was just AL. Bautista has been good in that stat consistently. He's apparently pretty aggressive on the base paths, and so makes quite a few outs as well.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 09:20 AM) I certainly did not believe Ramirez was coachable, nor did I expect Rios to come out and have a 40 stolen base season (even if some of it was with Texas). Yep. Alexei 7 for 12 in SB in 2011. 30 for 39 in 2013.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:53 PM) To me, Granderson/Morales or any other clear short term rental is out of the question, not because we don't have the payroll, but because of the cost of a draft pick. I'd give up the pick to get my starting C for the next five years, but not for a has-been to bridge a gap and make the fans think we're trying. Exactly. McCann or Salty for at least 4 years. All the more reason why Abreu makes so much sense.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:39 PM) And, finally, is DeAza actually a good deal at $4.4 million? As a starter for 4th outfielder. Because it's not wise to pay Jeff Keppingers and DeAza's of the world that kind of money to be bench depth/back-ups. If you're a playoff contender, it's a different story. Wherever it's been floated that De Aza would be a 4th outfielder is just silly. Hahn is obviously smarter than that. If the Sox go sign a center fielder De Aza would either be traded or moved to left with Viciedo moving to 1B/DH.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 07:04 PM) Just out of curiosity, who were the Top 10 (MLB) in that statistic? The prob is there's no way to sort by a minimum # of opportunities. If I set a min of 400 plate appearances, here's that list: Florimon 68% Shuck 66 Dozier 62 Bonifacio 61 Kinsler 61 Trout 59 Bautista 58 Aybar 57 Alc. Escobar 57 Rasmus 57 Rasmus, Andrus, Bourn, Stubbs, Jennings, Reyes, Crisp, Alexei closely after that But Trout was on 1st base when a single was hit 44 times. Florimon (amazingly) only 12 times in 440 pa. There'd obviously be a decent amount of variability in this one stat year-to-year based on the small sample size. Nonetheless, as you see, you've got a lot of the usual suspects at the top of the list. For comparison, since he's been discussed so much, De Aza was at 56% last year, and now 50% for his career. edited.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 06:49 PM) And what was Puig in those situations? How many extra bases did he take? Puig, I think was 58% on taking extra bases. High risk, high reward. Tough to wrangle an ultra-aggressive player and chorale him to the break even point on taking extra bases. Puig also had 11 SB to go with 8 CS. Edit: So Puig's terrible stolen base percentage of 58% matches his excellent extra-base taken percentage of 58%. Seems fitting.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 05:31 PM) And you expect 30-35-40 from DeAza this year, consequently? Just that he clearly isn't so old that if he managed to improve some technique-wise, his speed isn't imminently disappearing. He's got some years. Regarding the reliability of baserunning statistics, someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Fangraphs is doing too much subjective tinkering with the data. It's pretty much just aggregating observed events. And if for some reason you didn't want to go by that, you can simply look up the raw data on Baseballreference. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/...g-batting.shtml The most careless (or "dumbest") baserunner this year was Jose Altuve who made outs on the bases or was picked off 21 times (not including caught stealings). 2nd would go to De Aza or Puig (who had 15 to De Aza's 17 but in a lot less games). De Aza took an extra base (went 1st to 3rd on single, 1st to home on double, 2nd to home on single) 46% of the time. League average was 39%. Paul Konerko was dead last among regular players at 8%. Add in Dunn's 22% and Phegley's 18% and the White Sox otherwise pretty decent showing gets dragged below league average to 36%. Sox were also pretty much league average at being picked off and making outs on the bases. Edit: just realized the link I posted was AL only MLB - http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/...g-batting.shtml

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 15, 2013 -> 11:52 AM) Alex Rios, for example, had a boatload of stolen bases this year without being an incredibly fast or explosive runner...can DeAza "learn" instincts like those? Most would probably argue no...that when guys like Pods, Pierre or Figgins get older, they just go downhill quickly. Rios is 32 and stole 40 bases, his career best. Alexei stole his career best, 30, at age 32. De Aza is only 29.