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Vance Law

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Posts posted by Vance Law

  1. QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 2, 2016 -> 10:42 AM)
    But of course, that silly notion pretends like "drafting high" is the only thing you do when you're rebuilding. Other things include "Trading to acquire talent" and "playing guys who have struggled but have talent and letting them work through their struggles", and sometimes "taking on guys other teams are willing to sell for a pittance because they believe they're competitive and you have playing time to give them". All of which are valid strategies that have been employed by the teams you cite, and none of which can be employed by a team that gets impatient and insists "We'll be right there at the end!"

     

    Not quite. The main reason that Dayton Moore thing is true is because they drafted Alex Gordon the year before he got there. Gordon didn't establish himself as excellent until he was 27. He's at 31 WAR. He was a the #2 pick. Moustakas was a number 2 pick and they don't make the World Series until he finally starts hitting in the playoffs and then has his first good season in 2015. They have Lorenzo Cain because they traded Zach Greinke (#6 pick in 2002, 51 WAR) to the Brewers. Eric Hosmer was a #3 pick. Cain, Gordon, Hosmer, Moustakas. Those are the reason why the Royals are good. 4 homegrown top draft picks for cheap who panned out a the same time.

  2. QUOTE (shysocks @ Feb 1, 2016 -> 02:19 PM)
    The thing is Ethier is basically a platoon player making $18M a year. It's the more useful side of the plate, but I do not think he'd get a deal like that on the open market. And again, if we're willing to take the whole contract, the price in prospects should theoretically be negligible. Call it the Alex Rios / Leury Garcia corollary.

     

    Yes, I agree with all of that. He isn't THAT overpaid and the more they pay, the more they'd get back in prospects. I wouldn't want to give up anyone better than Danish.

  3. QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 1, 2016 -> 02:09 PM)
    I thought he was going to potentially be on the bench. It was a suggestion in a comment I read on mlbtr.

     

    It's possible they were gonna have Bird up as a bench bat and have him pinch hit 1B/DH/OF. But they need/currently have room for another 1B/DH.

  4. QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 1, 2016 -> 10:21 AM)
    What Rogers says makes sense and has been speculated all off season so he's really not reporting anything new. Until some rumors come out with regards to how much money the Dodgers are willing to eat for Ethier, I'll take this with a grain of salt. As for Crawford, good luck Dodgers, lol.

     

    I hope the Dodgers would pay a bunch of salary, but I don't know why they'd need to. 2.9 WAR outfielder last year. Would that guy get 2 years and $36.5 million with no draft pick compensation? Cespedes remember is making $27.5 million this year.

  5. QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 1, 2016 -> 09:24 AM)
    I'd be fine with Ethier. Means Melky would likely stay in left for 2 full years, though. I'd imagine we'd move Ethier to DH after LaRoche.

     

    You'd move Melky to DH. He's a worse defender and has at least a little AL experience playing DH.

  6. QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 03:57 PM)
    Well the Sox wouldn't sit Dunn against lefties, wouldn't sit Laroche until the very end. So I wouldn't count on that.

     

    This is simply not true. Dunn put up a very nice .767 OPS against lefties in 2012. He was worse in 2013, so in 2014 he started only 8 games against lefties. LaRoche stopped playing against lefties long before the end of the season and it's obvious he won't start against them this year.

     

  7. QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 01:44 PM)
    Hard to say. Possibly. I wouldn't say definitely. It's all about whether or not Avi is willing or able to make adjustments that he hasn't made yet. If you could tell me right now he can't, and he's the same player as last year, than I'd honestly rather put Coats out there than Avi.

     

    Coats isn't the prototypical White Sox OF prospect. He's not super-toolsy on 2 or 3 areas and a disaster in others. He's more of a portfolio. Hit tool is solid, makes good contact, quiet load and quick hands. Some power - he's hit 15 to 17 HR per full season - but he's not going to be a 20+ guy in the majors, probably. Pretty strong and very accurate arm from the outfield, I watched him put on a show in drills in Charlotte. Very good corner OF defensively, and can cover CF in a pinch but I wouldn't start him there. Some speed, nothing like May or Engel but he's faster than average and will steal bags here and there. His weak spot is he does expand the zone a bit and doesn't walk a lot, which hasn't caused him issues yet, but if he's got a weak spot that could bite him in the majors that's it.

     

    Got it. Yeah, he seems like one of the most overlooked position prospects we've had in the system and all he's ever done is hit and play well. His solid defense just seems to make his floor well higher than what we're getting from Avi. He's a year older than Trayce but he missed a whole year due to injury. Trayce's defense is closer to excellent than Coats and he has more raw power, but Coats is a career .278 hitter in the minors to Trayce's .241. The two put up almost identical seasons at AAA last year. The biggest knock against him just seems to be he was injured in his early 20s.

  8. QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 01:58 PM)
    Optimism around Saladino, catchers, bullpen surprises me.

     

    I'm not pessimistic about Saladino, but the projection seems to assume his elite 3rd base defense will morph into elite SS defense, and I don't think a reasonable person assumes he's that much better than average at SS. Not knocking him, just probably isn't top 5 in baseball. I'd be fine with him as shortstop, but I think Desmond is potentially too good of a deal to pass up.

  9. Hahn finds himself in a rather advantageous position now, having neglected to throw $30 million at Cespedes (or whatever) or go 7 years on Upton. He can improve the team just as much (or more) for cheaper potentially with some combo of Desmond, Fowler, Jackson, or some other OF in a trade. Desmond and Fowler (and perhaps Kendrick) will seemingly prove to be the biggest bargains available due to their QO. There is virtually no teams looking for a shortstop, much less looking to give up an unprotected pick for one. There are more suitors for Fowler, but Orioles and Angels aren't going to want to give up their only 1st rounder for him. It probably drives up Jackson's market.

     

    I really think Desmond just falls into our lap without anyone else seriously looking at him, and for way less than was predicted before the season.

  10. QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 25, 2016 -> 12:12 PM)
    Yes, I remember well. Half the board was calling him a bright spot in a bad year. The other half was citing his .400 BABIP and warning the first half that it wasn't going to last.

     

    Regarding pulling the ball, here are Avi's wRC+ splits vs. MLB last year.

     

    Pull: 88 / 156

    Middle: 137 / 126

    Oppo: 163 / 106

     

    He's just weird.

     

    What is the split?

  11. Moving this post from the Lagares thread:

     

    Going the trade route, the top person I would target is Andre Ethier. Lefty bat, can platoon with Avi. Only 2 years left on the deal. Would seemingly cost a lot less than Cargo despite the fact that Ethier was the better player last year and even grades out as the better defender. Interesting detail I just read, Ethier gets 10 and 5 rights in April. So he can veto any trade at that point. Dodgers need to move him now if they want to guarantee they can move him.

     

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/dodg...0119-story.html

  12. QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 02:54 PM)
    Leaving us with the same setup as right now - treading water. Always having some serious lineup and roster weaknesses, always low on depth, and not able to compete with franchises that build more complete rosters, unless "Everything goes right".

     

    Alcides Escobar, Alex Rios, Omar Infante.

  13. I would think they want to hold on to Lagares as their ideal defensive replacement 4th OF. I'm sure they'd give DeAza away. I'm saying we could have DeAza on this team by tomorrow if we want.

  14. QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 10:19 AM)
    Its all about asset management, . If RH feels that a couple of years of Fowler, Desmond or Jackson is better than the pick you do it. Picks are more than likely not to produce an mlb player so if the contract is a good one they will do it.

     

    And Jackson doesn't have a pick attached.

     

    Desmond and Jackson or Fowler and Rollins. I don't know which I'd prefer. I guess the Fowler route is safer, the Desmond route more upside. Fowler's OBP would be a nice addition to the lineup. Hopefully they could get Desmond for 2 years plus a team option. He'd provide insurance against Anderson stalling out or struggling, plus injuries or poor performance from Lawrie or Frazier (the injury part)

     

     

    To the people overly concerned about losing a draft pick, consider that this is the last season in the foreseeable future when signing a qualified-offer free agent won't result in losing our top draft pick.

  15. QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:41 PM)
    It's hard for me to think of a move that would hurt are overall team defense, which is already pretty bad, but this would be one of them.

    Sadly, these are a couple of the only options out there.

     

    You are misinformed on Desmond and Fowler's defense. Especially with Fowler moving to a corner.

  16. QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:26 PM)
    I thought we were essentially a lock for at least one of the big three. We were being used.

     

    I don't know what that means. You can't be a lock unless you outbid the other teams, and in the case of Gordon who wanted to stay, outbid by a lot. They didn't do that. That's free agency.

  17. QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:20 PM)
    Hahn said the Sox had to get creative. No way they could afford 25 million for 2016

     

    It's $27.5 million for 2016. So he'd have to go to at least $28 million? Pass. But I am excited for some insane, hysterical rants about how Hahn DIDN'T GIT 'ER DONE!!!

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