caulfield12

QUOTE (hi8is @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 11:07 PM) I'd say that 20 innings is somewhat important when talking about a relivers second half. It raises my "uh-oh" meter. This is coming from a guy who knows not what xFIP means, so please do enlighten me. Fielding Independent Pitching. It attempts to strip away a team's individual defensive effects (in other words, the defense makes a Royals pitcher better than he actually is, or makes a White Sox pitcher look worse) and forecast what that player would do in a completely neutral context setting.

Anyone going to be suckered into Episode 1 of Hunger Games? Or just wait for the finale? It's supposed to make $150 million or so in the U.S., and god knows what crazy numbers it will do here in China. Interstellar here almost beat the U.S. box office...it was pretty close.

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 08:49 PM) We want our bullpen to be upgraded, but we don't want to spend money to do it. Sweet. I'm not sure how people want Rick to address our pen issues. The 2012 method of throwing about 11-12 rookies at the problem worked better than what they've attempted since then. When you do have a pitcher working with an 88-91 MPH fastball (see Danks), we all know how slim the margin for error is...you can't get away with the same mistakes a Herrera or Wade Davis does. Their foul tics are long homers at lesser velocities.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 08:08 PM) Do you guys genuinely think that Viciedo is going to be a significantly improved player next year? I certainly don't. Please someone tell me where he's going to actually make progress next year. You trapped yourself with this response. Not with this coaching staff. I know one thing...the Royals' staff would never tolerate the play we've seen out of him the last two years when he was quite decent in 2012. How do you explain that regression? It's not physical, it's almost completely mental/psychological. To my knowledge, putting on 5-10 extra pounds can't possibly be the reason.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 07:39 PM) KW mentioned a lot of good players are available in trade. Said the Winter Meetings will be an exciting time. He will be helping Hahn put the dream together. Well, that pronouncement will surely sell 500-750 tickets alone, just by sheer force of will.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 07:36 PM) That iis in the past. When making trades and constructing a roster, what you will do is a little more important than what you did. Uh-oh, we can actually agree on something for once. "An ill wind comes arisin', across the cities and the plain/s ...acid rain, etc."

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 07:27 PM) Actual WAR the last 2 years: Viciedo: -0.8 fWAR Navarro: 3.8 fWAR. Which still doesn't necessarily mean Navarro's going to have nearly the impact Viciedo will the next 3-5 years. It's just like the stock market. Past returns aren't necessarily an indicator of future performance. Caveat emptor.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 05:02 PM) That is a very beatable deal. One of those "more for PR than anything" announcements, so the Red Sox can argue they mounted a "sincere" attempt to bring Lester back to pacify the fans who can only speculate what it's like to turn down $100+ million in guaranteed money to play a kid's game (see Juan Gonzalez). Seems they prefer Shields at $90-100 million. They should know what they're doing, they had all the opportunity in the world to observe Lester and evaluate what he's worth, exactly, moving forward.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 03:50 PM) Yeah, I get that. I get that you don't think he's for real. You may be right. I mean, I probably only think it's 60/40 that his changes are for real. I'm just saying that it is incorrect to compare this signing to the Paulino/Downs signings, because the Sox think he IS for real. So hopefully they're right about that. Downs had a VERY consistent track record for nearly a decade. It's just that his expiration date had already passed... But I would say Downs is closer in spirit to Keppinger/Teahen than the likes of Ohman or Paulino, who had multiple injuries and a nearly completely inability to stay healthy. Paulino five years ago might have gotten away with throwing in the mid 90's and having limited movement and offspeed stuff...but that's just an average fastball these days when you consider hitters usually see 3-4 guys out of every big league pen throwing that velocity and starters like Yordano Ventura routinely hitting 100.

The Rangers' situation was mostly related to real estate/shopping mall overexposure and also Liverpool/Arsenal....one of those Premiere League teams. It's not like the profit-generating model was broken in Texas. Quite the opposite. It's that the Rangers' profitability was being used to cushion all the other spread sheet/line item disasters in Hicks' portfolio.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 11:10 AM) No one said that but you complained he wasn't league average. No one in the majors has everyone at league average. Eminor3rd said cause of his performance he should have been sent down to Charlotte if it wasn't for his contract. Shouldn't Verlander have been sent down for the tigers if it wasn't based on his contract for last year When the Dodgers sign Scherzer, they'll have Kershaw and Greinke as well...one of those will be a 3 in their rotation, by definition. Ryu becomes the 4th (even though he's a 2/3 on most teams), and Dan Haren 5th.

Great, we can have Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Sandoval and Viciedo together...that should be pure entertainment. Talk about swinging at nearly ever ball thrown at them, no matter what the location. Saw Guerrero's cousin play in Clinton (Midwest League) for the Mariners last year and he was far from impressive.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 03:48 PM) Que the Kenny Loggins music... Hopefully Santos' Goose is not cooked...well, you're going to have to be a Top Gun/F-16's zipping off the flight deck fan to get that one.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansa...cle3855792.html This seems to be the consensus, in a nutshell, about Tomas from most teams' perspectives. Like Rusney Castillo and Fernandez, there's much more limited information out there in terms of projections compared to when you look at prior Cubans such as Cespedes, Puig and Abreu (or even Soler, for that matter). He's at that in-between age where he hasn't had a tremendous amount of international competition to measure him by. It feels like his upside (at best) is Soler, downside is Viciedo but you're overpaying severely with the odds he's somewhere in the middle.

Because while it might work for a relief pitcher, changing your mechanics or throwing motion can just as easily lead to an injury. There's a difference between "tweaking," like they did with Jose Contreras, and changing Brandon McCarthy or Daniel Hudson into Chad Bradford clones or vice-versa. It seems simple to say "stop throwing four-seam fastballs" (like the Pirates instituted in 2013) but if you go with more sinkers, you have to have a very strong infield defensively, too. Some pitchers have long arm throwing motions and show the ball more, while others short arm the ball and it gets on the batters' hands a notch or two faster than they're expecting, even at 88-90 MPH...especially when they can throw off-speed pitches 50% of the time AND GET AHEAD IN THE COUNT, which Danks also has struggled with, not having the stuff to put away batters when ahead or falling behind and being forced to throw BP fastballs and cutters out over the plate. PLUS, that kind of sidearm or 3/4's throwing motion also works a lot better with slider/curve/slurves/frisbees than someone who typically throws more fastballs/changes/cutters.

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 07:37 AM) He's a FA SP with a good track record, he's going to get a ridiculous amount of money from any team he signs with, he's not going back to Boston or the Cubs for a feel good story, he's going to end up in the place that offers him the most $$ Unless it's the Marlins, haha.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 05:39 AM) This discussion has been a lot of fun, and you guys have provided some very good, thoughtful analysis. From my perspective, and to summarize, it seems the Dodgers are seeking to accomplish the following: 1) To acquire a SS for the next 2 years. 2) To unload some of their enormous payroll 3) To make room for their core outfielders by moving a couple of veterans, from the group of Crawford, Ethier and Kemp The Sox are seeking: 1) A LH Hitting, middle of the order bat 2) One outfielder, with both decent defense, as well as offensive production 3) A RH Starting pitcher, who is capable of being at least a #4, or better. They already have a #5 in Noesi 4) A mix of veteran leadership, while strengthening their young core going forward. If that assessment of the respective objectives of both teams is correct, it would appear that the teams match up sufficiently in the following ways: 1) Ethier satisfies the Dodgers' need to clear some payroll and their crowded outfield, while providing the Sox a LH Middle of the order bat, with adequate defense for one corner Of and veteran leadership. 2) Alexei satisfies the Dodgers' need for an outstanding defensive SS, who also provides offense, and does not represent a long term financial commitment. 3) Schebler satisfies the Sox need for a LH power bat, in the outfield, going forward. The only other potential left handed, power bat in the Sox organization is Barnum, who is first baseman, and several years from the Major Leagues. Schebler probably still needs at least 1 year at AAA. Ethier could move to DH as a platoon player, once he is ready. That is the core of a potential trade. The Dodgers accomplish 3 of their objectives by acquiring their SS, moving payroll, and making room in their crowded outfield. The Sox accomplish 3 of their goals by acquiring a LH middle of the order bat, a corner outfielder with some veteran leadership, while still strengthening their core going forward. I understand that Ethier is a not a productive hitter vs. LHP. However, it seems most of the good left handed starters in our division are on the Sox. Moreover, I'm sure that the Sox can find someone to platoon with Ethier, and the rest never hurts a guy in his mid 30's. As some have suggested, don't under estimate his production against RH pitching. I would add; don't under estimate the Sox need for such left handed offensive production. We are all concerned about Ethier's sudden drop off, last year. It seems reasonable to assume that it was an aberration, as he is not that old, and has always been a very consistently good hitter, albeit vs. RH pitching only. Moving Danks and his contract, is a benefit to the Sox, not the Dodgers. If he is included in the deal, the Sox would have to provide another benefit to the Dodgers. I don't think that the Sox have any expendable players, in whom L.A. would have interest. Therefore I don't see that happening. At this point, Danks may be considered a #4 starter, with the added benefit of being LH. Lefties who can eat innings are always in demand. I would think that there might be some team interested in swapping their #3, or 4 RH starter for Danks. If there were no significant difference in the contracts, that might be a realistic match. Let's face it, statistically we're going to have to do something like taking back Edwin Jackson, Cliff Lee (plus giving up prospects), Tim Lincecum for Danks and cash subsidy...to the point where it feels like a bigger risk trading him than trying to give him away. Maybe a change of scenery guy like Colby Lewis, with Danks going back to the Rangers (which, with his propensity for giving up long balls, probably wouldn't work in that bandbox). The problem the Padres, Mariners, Giants, etc., don't need to spend that kind of money when they can get decent results from an Eric Stults, Clayton Richard or Chris Young type. Almost every pitcher looks 1-1.5 ERA points better in those stadiums. So while Danks needs to find a home where he won't lead the league in homers, nobody will want to pay him more than $6-8 (maybe that's even charitable) million because that's what he's arguably worth.

http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/...l-is-pearl.html Seems one of the keys with Duke has been ditching the 4 seam fastball and going to the sinking, 2-seamer. Along with that, getting first pitch strikes to go ahead in the count. Has picked up about 1 MPH with his velocity, also getting more movement. The most amazing thing is that he was striking out nearly 33% of all batters faced (in 2014), compared to his career number of only 12.7%, almost a three-fold increase. K to BB ratio went from around 2 career-wise all the way up to 4.29. Almost 49% of his pitches are a combination of curves and sliders and he has a positive value on the two-seam, slider and curve this season. Has seen a velocity increase, but still only an 89.4 MPH heater. What has really helped Duke is that 61.3% of his first pitches are strikes. Getting ahead in the count has really helped and his swinging strike rate has gone up to the highest rate of his career. Sure, he is sort of a LOOGY. He has pitched 45.1 innings in 55 outings. But he has actually pitched to more right-handed batters (103) than he has lefty swingers (83). And his success rate against either is terrific. Right-handed batters have only a .581 OPS against him and lefty swingers, .552. http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/...l-is-pearl.html

SOA has redeemed itself (somewhat) for a tepid final season with so much bloodshed you just become immune to being affected...until these last couple of episodes. Juice, Jax and, as always, Jimmy Smits/Nero had some of the best performances of their careers on the show, particularly the two prison interrogation room meetings with Jax and then with Unser/Sheriff Jary. A completely different set of feelings and emotions/reactions from both Jax and his mother than most would have expected at the end of last season.

QUOTE (beautox @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 02:55 AM) I'm not saying its going to happen but its well within reason to spend that much if the right deals came about. The big free agents this year are all of the cuban imports, possibly Maeda, Sandoval, Lester and Scherezer, next year its pretty slim pickins after J Upton, J Heyward and Latos. http://www.southsidesox.com/2014/11/18/723...s-and-white-sox Has there been a paradigm shift with the Martinez, Stanton and Martin deals? Never thought about the exchange rate and customs issues with the Canadian teams since it has been so long since they signed a premium free agent....and Martin's a Canadian citizen so it would impact him less than the Caribbean/Latin American players. And then the Stanton situation's so unique, but nobody trusts Loria or understands what he was thinking with that one.

QUOTE (beautox @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 03:04 AM) I'm not against signing him, I would prefer Morales even with his down year because he'll be cheaper but both of these players markets I would assume will be slow to develop. That should allow Hahn to check in on all of the recent cuban defectors that should be cleared by the OFAC in the not too distant future as well as Maeda provided he gets posted. The problem is that none of those Cubans are going to give us the impact offensively that will justify Abreu +++ money. Tomas, it just doesn't fit. Moncada would be perfect, if we didn't need to allocate that money over these next two offseasons in order to have a contender out of the gate in 2016. He's a luxury/gamble that about 6-8 big market teams can take right now, and the White Sox aren't one of them...not with their current broadcast rights deal. It's going to be a case of the rich getting richer, unfortunately.

That $48 something figure wasn't including all the arbitration salaries (like Flowers and potentially Viciedo and definitely not Belisario), as well as covering the rest of the positions with minimum or 2nd year player salaries. Assuming we're around that $60-66 mark, that leaves around $25 million that they will PROBABLY spend, putting them around the $90 million mark. And that's being optimistic, based on last year's "profits" even with the additional tv revenues.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 09:51 PM) Pretty much guarantees LaRoche will get $13 mil+ AAV Not sure about that....Butler is 29, and other than Rasmus and Sandoval, there aren't many free agents on the right side of 30. Of course, LaRoche can play 1B well, so he has THAT advantage, but you'd have to swallow hard to guarantee three years and $39 million to what amounts to a declining platoon 1B. (And the problem with this line of thinking is that we're probably going to use him as a DH even though he's a better defender than Abreu...we all know that he's not going to be forced to sit like Frank Thomas at this point in his development). We've started to see so many players "lose it" in their mid 30's that it's becoming increasingly risky to sign anyone over 31 or 32. For every Torii Hunter who keeps on trucking along, there are 10-15 counter-examples.

QUOTE (beautox @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 09:49 PM) A couple of things: Seagar isn't viewed by anyone as a shortstop except in namesake. Friedman isn't a fool and realizes that strong defense up the middle especially when they're lacking a true centerfielder is incredibly important. Sox fans in general undervalue their assets; the market this year at SS is a joke. Hardy signed before the off season kicked off you have a ton of middle infielders that aren't qualified to stay at short (Hanley, Lowrie, Cabrera) and a retread that was awful last year any team with world series aspirations and plenty of money wouldn't sign (Drew). Alexei was a 3-3.3 win player last year, and has a very affordable contract this year and next, He has a ton of surplus value even when you factor in regression over the next two years at a .5 to .75 clip. At the very least he should fetch two top 100 prospects in the 50-80 range and a throw in. So even though Joc Pederson was ranked #15 by mlb doesn't take him out the equation for a similar value profile as Alexei's worth in addition to that, thats not even taking into account the fact that you don't surrender a draft pick and slot to acquire him and Hahn is sitting pretty with two untested but capable options in Semien and Sanchez. Lastly as for all this talk of dumping Danks, why? he isn't a toxic asset and its very possible he plays to his contract or slightly under it. He just needs to be worth about a win and a half due to inflation and the amount of cash in the game, last year he was worth .8. Even with Danks on the payroll we still have between 40-60mil to spend in this offseason if Hahn so chooses. $60? I'll eat Dick Allen's shoes if that happens.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 09:13 PM) And there's a similar risk in every top 20 prospect you trade for to. Come on man. Alexei Ramirez has been as reliable a SS as their is in baseball. He's #4 in MLB in fWAR out of that position the last 5 years, #5 over the last 2 years. Over the past 5 he's put up similar fWAR to Jose Reyes, who parleyed it into a $100 million contract. He's put up just about as many fWAR over that time period as Hanley Ramirez, who is about to get something similar. He ought to be treated as such. Except we did have a stretch there for two years where Marty34 was arguing that Ramirez was the biggest contract risk on the books. 2014 ALONE isn't going to erase that concern, although it has been mitigated. His defensive metrics/range/eye test have been declining ever so slightly over the last 2-3 years, even though he's obviously still capable of making spectacular plays.