caulfield12

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 05:14 PM) I just don't agree with this. I think that it is an argument made by marketing and echoed by media, but I don't think actually affects ticket sales in a significant way, at least not in Chicago. Firstly, season tickets make up a much smaller portion of total attendance than people assume. It's significant, but the industry is moving toward groups. Secondly, while all STH will be very vocal about the team's direction, the majority of them are going to renew regardless. They'll grumble, but they'll be there. You will lose some that are on the fence, but it ends up being a much smaller piece than it seems. The largest portion of the crowd on any given night is walk-ups, and they are, by far, the most sensitive to wins and losses. You can look at our attendance figures the past decade and see this pattern in play. Most recently, even the IN season record hasn't affected things much. The years when you see attendance increasing are the years AFTER a successful, winning season. So the overall point is that, IMO, the Sox should not be thinking about their acquisitions in terms of sending a signal to fans; they should just be trying to build a winner as efficiently as possible. The faster they can do that, the faster they'll be in the black. That doesn't mean Hahn shouldn't pay lip service to the media about "being aggressive," but at the end of the line, the numbers are going to follow the win column, even if they show up a year late. The best thing he can do for the team, financially, is build a team that contends for several consecutive years. Up until recently, the given formula is sports marketing was 80% season ticket holders, 20% walk-up. In April/May/September, it's probably closer to 90-95% STH. As far as the group/one-off outings go, that's true...but I also think some of the bloom is definitely off that type of "Groupon" marketing.

QUOTE (flavum @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 06:53 PM) Sale just made some money: Chris Sale lhp 5 years/$32.5M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 options 5 years/$32.5M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 club options signed extension with Chicago White Sox 3/7/13 replaced 1 year/$0.6M deal signed 2/22/13 13:$0.85M, 14:$3.5M, 15:$6M, 16:$9.15M, 17:$12M, 18:$12.5M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout) 2019 option increases 1) by $2.5M to $16M with a Cy Young in 2013-18 or 2) by $1.5M to $15M with a second- or third-place finish in Cy Young vote in 2013-18 award bonuses, including $15,000 for All-Star selection Whew. At first I read it as his 2015 salary going up to $15 million, which would have cut out another $9 million in payroll. Then I reread it more carefully. Congrats to Chris and his agent (I think).

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 05:17 PM) My favorite pitcher of theirs is that #5, as I think ???????? has a lot of potential to do some damage in this league. Kyle Gibson eats innings, and that would appear to be about it. Trevor May started 9 games, appeared in 10, had an ERA of 7.88 and a FIP of 4.77. My gut instinct tells me he's a reliever moving forward. Alex Meyer is a good pitcher, but he's still never pitched in the majors. Using your criteria, the Sox have Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Noesi, Danks, Montas, Carroll, Beck, and Danish as well. I think I know who is set up better from a pitching standpoint. If Gibson, a former first rounder, was on the White Sox, Don Cooper would have him as another Gavin Floyd, lol. Let's not forget that Noesi/Danks/Carroll ranked amongst the worst starters in MLB depending upon which peripheral you use. What's the biggest reason the White Sox played so well in 2012? No more Ozzie Guillen. I think you'll see a similar rejuvenation/new life out of the Twins. Just a hunch. Maybe I'm wrong, and they won't do anything between now and April 1st to improve their rotation.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 05:08 PM) Which 25% have the Twins ahead of the White Sox? Do they realize that the Twins pitching rotation is basically Phil Hughes and a bunch of janitors? Also, by saying "having all your eggs in the basket of Jose Abreu...." as if it's a bad thing is basically like saying "having good players is a bad thing because they can get hurt." Well DUH. The Royals have a LOT of balance, but no one superstar. Gordon or Perez aren't even that, although both those guys would be hard to replace. I'll go back to the Orioles' example. They lost Wieters, Machado and Chris Davis. And still were strong enough to win 96 and make it to the playoffs.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 05:08 PM) Which 25% have the Twins ahead of the White Sox? Do they realize that the Twins pitching rotation is basically Phil Hughes and a bunch of janitors? Also, by saying "having all your eggs in the basket of Jose Abreu...." as if it's a bad thing is basically like saying "having good players is a bad thing because they can get hurt." Well DUH. http://wtaq.com/blogs/sports/983/the-minne...rting-rotation/ Contingent upon the Twins spending money again (like they did with Hughes, Correia and Nolasco) on a couple of veteran 3-4 guys.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 05:00 PM) Tigers resign Martinez. Ergo, the Minnesota Twins lineup appears. Obviously. The fact of the matter is that the White Sox can't wait too long or the Indians/Twins will pass us from below...while everyone's more concerned with the Tigers and Royals coming back down to the pack. Almost everyone has the Indians ahead of us and 25% have the Twins in 4th, too. (Having almost all of your eggs in the basket of Jose Abreu, Sale, Quintana and Eaton is also extremely dangerous, as a single injury to one of those four wipes that team out of contention.) The Orioles won 96 games despite losing Wieters, Machado and Chris Davis. We don't have anything approaching depth at a single position other than middle/utility infielders who may or may not be big league regulars. This isn't the Saints and Panthers battling it out for a .500 finish to make the playoffs.

The Rangers really bailed them out on Fielder. That said, they've had to part ways with Fister, Peralta, Infante...and I think the most underrated loss is Austin Jackson because of his defensive abilities in that huge CF. They never managed to replace that last year, despite the surprising offense from JD Martinez, Rajai Davis and Hunter (at his age). They sunk a lot of money into Soria, Nathan and Joba with little or no return. If Castellanos and Suarez both became All-Stars at 3B and SS, that would be one thing. Most likely they have one more year, two at best (and yes, it's getting annoying since this will be the 3rd year in a row AT LEAST we've been saying "wait 'til next year"). In effect, the Royals (losing in Game 7) and Tigers are hungrier, and more desperate/dangerous. This is probably Illitch's last big opportunity. Then the Indians have the young pitching and the Twins have Sano/Buxton/Arcia/Santana/Plouffe/Dozier/K.Vargas/Gibson/Meyer. 1. SS Danny Santana 2. 2B Brian Dozier 3. 1B Joe Mauer 4. DH Kennys Vargas 5. 3B Trevor Plouffe 6. RF Oswaldo Arcia 7. C Kurt Suzuki 8. LF Chris Parmalee 9. CF Jordan Schafer One of those last two will be replaced by Buxton...where/when Sano will play is the next question, although he probably won't be ready until July/August. As I said, IF IF IF Mauer hits again like he did in 2010, that's a very dangerous team, especially with the injections of Santana, Vargas and Buxton. A crowded field in the AL Central for sure.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 02:18 PM) History dictates otherwise. Sox fans show up after a team has already been a winner, and not before. See 2006, and even 2007...lag effect, which traditionally is 4-5 years for a World Series champion. And that's exactly what happened, with 2007/2009 (despite the excitement over Peavy initially) expediting it. In the end, it's crazy to think Max Scherzer would need to bring in 400,000 fans, even. At this point, with nearly every baseball team but the bottom 5-7 for tv/radio/broadcast rights, ticket sales are somewhere in the 20-30% range in terms of total revenues. We've been over this topic numerous times. And the fact that the White Sox generated a higher amount of revenue with their lower attendance because of Top 4-6 prices being charged for tickets, parking, food, concessions, etc. (Now that has changed and we're closer to the middle and still losing customers/revenue, which must be scaring them a BIT). You can argue that the extra $25 million from the broadcast deal could offset Scherzer, but in all likelihood it's paying for Abreu and offsetting other losses caused by the likes of Dunn and Danks. Max Scherzer alone won't move the meter that much....maybe 50-100,000 in pre-sales for 2015. If the team was in first place the first 2-3 months and "dominant," that's when you would see attendance pick up substantially as summer hit, a number of sponsors jump back on the bandwagon, more revenue from luxury boxes/corporations, an increase in advertising buys and rates charged (which would benefit the White Sox due to the Comcast ownership share/s), a buyout of US Cellular and a new name for the stadium, etc. It seems the more nationally-televised playoff and World Series ratings go down (NFL football beat one of the final World Series games 6.4 to 2.7), the more baseball becomes popular around the world (Asian/Pacific Rim, Caribbean, Central and South America) because of multimedia/MLB.TV/GameDay Audio/Extra Innings, etc. Then there's also the good possibility the White Sox are in a much better position around 2018-2019 to increase their tv rights (maybe not like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox or Rangers, but it will be substantial).

QUOTE (scs787 @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 01:48 PM) I mean you can point to Tanaka as a negative, but I can also point to Darvish who's thrown the 8th most innings since coming over. Hisashi Iwakuma, who came over the same year, ranked 35th in innings and he was a reliever for the first half of his first year. Or Hiroki Kuroda who in all but 1 season recorded 30+ starts Wei-Yin Chen of the Orioles, while Taiwanese, also fits that Iwakuma profile of being relatively unheralded and over-performing expectations. For every two Hideki Irabu's or Kei Igawa's, there's one success story. (The original "hit and miss" Asian pitchers were Nomo and Chan-Ho Park, along with Mac Suzuki). The Red Sox in particular have had a good stretch with Japanese relievers, especially Uehara. But, in the end, Dice-K and what transpired with Tanaka still stick in the craws of most GM's. Darvish was ouchy last year, too.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 03:14 PM) The Sox are in a slump where they can't compete with anybody in the division in head to head games. Did finish ahead of Minnie though. And with Gardenhire gone, that team should be buried for a while. Molitor will bring new energy, just like Ventura in 2012. It always happens with new managers. They have two Top 10 (in the entire sport) prospects of their own in Sano and Buxton, the overall best prospect (OF) in baseball IF he can stay healthy. Sano missed nearly the entire 2014 season with an injury, though. If Mauer doesn't hit, they won't go much higher than 4th place, but Arcia and Santana were pretty impressive, and Plouffe/Dozier showed surprising pop. Then you've got some intriguing arms like Gibson, Meyer and of course Phil Hughes had a bounce-back season.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 07:30 AM) I get a little confuse with the yrs involve in the penalty. some poster posted something last wk on whether it would benefit the sox to make the move of overspending in the draft. so when will be the a good time, considering the other major mlb teams. next yr right??? or will doing it for this player be the time? I don't see how they can realistically compete with some of the other big players in the market who are already over the limits, as those organizations already have no compelling reason NOT to go for broke with a Moncada signing. A lot depends on whether he's freed up to sign before or after June 15th, 2015. There are five clubs with significant resources and no fear of losing the ability to sign anyone else...and I'm just not sure the White Sox can take that approach with a player who probably wouldn't be in the big leagues until 2017 or 2018. It's an interesting decision for the team that eventually signs him, in the face of all the financial penalties and signing limitations they'll face.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 10:45 PM) Did you not want him to do that last year for Abreu? Because he did, lol. Yes, but this one player would cripple our minor league spending for two seasons AND essentially be a doubling down of a $30 million deal to a $45-60 million gamble (putting all of the eggs in one basket) because of the built-in fines and penalties.

Hearing he's having the tryout in Guatemala reminds me of "Million Dollar Arm." So bizarre, the guy everyone's hyping as the next big superstar after Mike Trout and he's in the second poorest Central American country after Honduras. #24, same as Viciedo, haha. If there was ONE time I really wanted JR to open up the purse strings and take a risk, it's on Moncada.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 09:24 PM) Not arguably, Scott Downs most definitely had a better track record than Miller. I'd much rather sign Joe Thatcher and target a LH reliever with potential. Anyone could have had Miller a few years ago. Anyone could have had Matt Thornton after 2005. I know it's much easier said than done but I'd rather take the safer. cheaper option and search for some potential. I am not paying 8-10 AAV over a 3-4 year span for a guy who's second best season BB/9, in any sample size, is 4.5 BB/9. I've seen him pitch and he's absolutely filthy but I'd much prefer the Cubs/Tigers wasting their resources than our Sox who cannot absorb these types of mistakes. That's what they tried to deal with Veal, and it worked well in 2012 and then fell apart. Cleto, Guerra, Putnam, Petricka, Paulino, Boggs (that was a surprise), Henry Rodriguez, De La Rosa, etc., last season. On the plus side, they got three serviceable relievers in Guerra, Putnam and Petricka out of last season's bullpen experimentation.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 09:15 PM) Everyone knows the Sox are aiming for a true playoff team in 2016. If they're going to ratchet up the payroll via FA they are going to both this year AND next year. This year you have a handful of #1/#2 type starting pitchers and a handful of middle of the order bats. Next year you have a handful of #1/2 types (Cueto, Latos, Fister, Zimmerman, Price and more) and Jason Heyward. There is nothing on the offensive side for free agents next year unless you're the team to give Heyward 200+ million. With that in mind, I'd guess we get one big bat and a few supplementary pieces in FA this year. Then next year, if everything goes right and there is still a need, the team could look at a Latos/Fister/Cueto type to split up Sale/Quintana/Rodon. Regardless, it's not the Sox MO to handout big contracts to pitchers and rightfully so. It would be their style, on the other hand, to look at Volquez, Masterson, Colby Lewis, Franklin Morales, Brett Anderson, Gavin Floyd and Josh Johnson. I'll believe it when I see it, in terms of signing someone like Erwin Santana for $3/36 or 4/$44, etc. Not with Danks' contract still on the books.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 04:27 PM) That depends if she hires someone as incompetent as Mark Penn again and her strongest challenger has a campaign team that understands and exploits the delegate selection process. That's how Obama got a foothold in 2008. If her husband didn't screw up South Carolina with his comments, and the Kennedy's, Kerry and Oprah didn't jump on board right around that time of "anti-Bill" backlash, history would tell a different story. Because the Clintons had an almost perfect record with African-Americans until that caucus.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 08:59 PM) Let's make a LHRP the third highest paid player on the team? I hope we get outbid. 2014 was the only year this guy had any semblance of control. Scott Downs arguably had a more consistent track record (than Miller) before 2014.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 08:40 PM) Multiple reports in the past couple days have said we'll have $40M to spend and I could see it being a little higher than that. While I fully expect a payroll right around $100M if all goes well in free agency, it's not that crazy to think they could go up to $110M if they hit on all their targets. You have to invest in your business to grow it, so if the Sox want to increase attendance and ultimately revenues, they need to commit to winning by spending big up front. If there was a poll, will the White Sox ACTUALLY spend/add: $20-25 million to 2015 payroll $25-35 million $35 million + I would bet that 60-65% of SoxTalk posters would go with the 2nd choice. And there would probably be more "old/er" Sox fans betting on the lower number rather than the higher number. Until they actually go out and do it, there will be a plethora of "Doubting Thomases." One thing that would be annoying is if the Cubs add Lester, Zimmerman and Martin and the White Sox responded with one big signing from a PR perspective in order to sell tickets but not really it being in the best long-term interest of the team, like overpaying for Victor Martinez. Hopefully Hahn's too smart for that, although the pressure is being turned up a bit with Maddon also in town. It's going to be increasingly difficult not to compare the two Chicago managers.

Too many Zimmermans, haha. If they can get an extension (see F.Garcia 2004) agreed to, then he's worth the equivalent of Reed/Morse/Olivo, essentially. If I was the Cubs, it would be Castro and Edwards, with Russell taking over SS.

Zimmerman is a monster. How many years does he have until FA? I would ask for more than Castro if I was the Nationals...Castro and CJ Edwards, maybe. They definitely can't afford to accept Baez and Edwards alone after what happened last year with those two guys. Even if Alcantara was added as a sweetener.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 04:17 PM) I just did a search under fangraphs. I was surprised to see him and Markakis there. Maybe I had a bad filter, I don't know, but it made sense given that Gordon and Heyward were amongst the top outfielders along with Billy Hamilton. It was in the advanced stats. I hadn't given it much thought so I just cherry picked based upon the list following that stat (so I'm not saying it is an end all be all) but my point is it is a lot easier to find and be able to get a potential good defensive player then a good hitter, imo, especially when you are talking outfield. Link Didn't Markakis win a Gold Glove or at least finish in the top 3? Seems to be some disconnect between UZR/DRS and the proverbial "eye test." (Waiting for Derek Jeter mention...in 3, 2, 1)

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 08:05 PM) Age 26, elite defender, more than a standard deviation above average at the plate. Enter another argument about WAR overvaluing players like Heyward or Alex Gordon with high walk rates and/or stellar defensive abilities/outfield arms.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 08:05 PM) I agree. Bring in as many lefties on minor league deals as possible (try to bring one in for Beckham as the ptbnl from that deal). We tried this going into the 2007 season and to a lesser extent coming into last year. The problem is the only one out of about 10-12 lefties who was worth a damn ended up being traded by KW to the Red Sox, Javier Lopez. We also acquired Sisco and Mike Myers. There was the unforgettable Heath Phillips. Boone Logan. Dewon Day.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 11, 2014 -> 03:43 PM) Thank you Matt Karchner #obscure80splayers You're off by a decade.

FWIW, Wade Davis' contract option was picked up at $7 or $7.5 million. I think that actually dates back to his deal with the Rays when he was a back-end starter, though. HOPING someone who's never really been a closer can just morph into that role only works about 1/5th of the time. The problem for that other 80% is what happens when they return to relieving after losing the closer's spot. It seemed Matt Thornton never recovered with the White Sox. Part of that was general deterioration in his fastball, but in my mind he was never the same after giving up that monster homer to Thome in 2010 after appearing in the All-Star game that July.