caulfield12

We have no choice but to compete with Rios and Dunn, and Peavy to a lesser extent. It is possible to compete in the AL Central "as is" but it certainly won't be easy without Floyd OR Danks and Thornton. We can live without Quentin's production if Viciedo produces, which is a 90% probability. There's also a 90% probability that Quentin will miss a significant portion of games, inevitably lowering his trade value. The other choice is an onerous that is very unlikely to occur, which is packaging one of those 3 contracts (perhaps along with Beckham) with the quality assets we have to trade in Danks/Floyd/Thornton/Quentin and perhaps Alexei Ramirez or Paul Konerko if the right pieces of a deal fall into place. Frasor/Crain could also be included as a sweetener, particularly Crain. The problem with trading an Alexei Ramirez is that he's not easily replaced by Escobar or Martinez. But it's obviously something that will have to be considered over the next 12-15 months. Your "interpolation" that with all the contracts like Peavy, AJ, Danks, Quentin (and probably Thornton) off the books that we will be putting that money back into the draft is unlikely, except for the potentially higher first and second round (supplemental, etc.) draft picks. As far as high school players with "upside," Trayce Thompson is a pretty good example. The problem is that for every 20 raw "diamonds in the rough," you're only going to hit on 2-3 of them. Of course, the more you have in your organization with that kind of talent and physical package, the better off you will be. It's a numbers game. Fairly easy to look back at all the depth in pitching we had between 1998-2002 (when we were the #1 farm system in baseball with Borchard, Garland and Rauch as the centerpieces).....that almost none of them had the MLB careers projected for them.

Danks isn't worth $15 million per season for 5-6 years to this franchise, not at this point. There's just too much downside risk to those bigger pitching contracts. And he's certainly not likely to sign a long-term deal averaging $10-12 million per season coming off a down year like he just had.

Of course, the first stories we heard on Dice-K was that he could throw 200-250 pitches in a game or routinely in between starts workouts. Obviously, that didn't work out so well in the end.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 20, 2011 -> 12:04 AM) And Passen broke it. Good for him. Jeff Passan. Where was Cowley? In mom's basement?

MI: Ghost Protocol is really excellent. I can't imagine how scary some of those sequences in Dubai would be in an IMAX theatre. Just watching them doing all the stunts on a laptop was bad enough. Jeremy Renner more than holds his own in a big budget picture and Paula Patton is something of a revelation. Definitely a movie best enjoyed in a theatre setting.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Dec 18, 2011 -> 10:20 PM) That's how I feel. Agreed. Unless it ends up like the Freddy Garcia deal and his agent is willing to negotiate a long-term pact (with say a 3 day window) for him to stay 4-5-6 years down the road with the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, etc.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 18, 2011 -> 11:30 PM) That piece, once again, paints Coop as a creep. Don't kill the messenger. Just the take I got from reading it. s***, Danks is on the record in the story. I'm guessing you didn't read through the whole thread. It's been established that the most damaging quote/s in the story didn't come from Danks OR Peavy, but, with a journalistic sleight of hand that painted both with the brush of a conspiracy which has since been debunked. Ozzie was "letting them all sweat," the coaching staff, so if you were one of his coaches, and had been a part of the White Sox organization much longer than Ozzie, wouldn't you be a little concerned about your future as well? If anything Ozzie sealing himself off from the contract negotiations of the rest of the coaches only exacerbated the negative environment that festered. It's like he was leaving the Titanic, but telling his coaching staff to go down with the ship as he was paddling away for his Florida jackpot.

CUe the Marty post....this only strengthens the trade market for Alexei Ramirez, crossing Rollins off the list of available candidates.

See disaster known as 2011 Minnesota Twins (particularly SS/2B) for why this would have been a bad move.

QUOTE (TheHugeUnit @ Dec 17, 2011 -> 09:54 PM) I could see if Danks was 24 and was under control for 4 years at undermarket price, but yeah Danks is a f/a next year... The CBA kind of screws you too. If Danks is dealt during the season teams won't get comp picks for him and GMs aren't dumb, or well some arent. they know this and will exploit it. But then there are 6-8 "mid tier" teams who will be competing next year and might not be able to afford paying Danks $7-8 million for the full season but could definitely swing that contract for just two months....where he might emerge as that one additional starter to put them over the top, particularly a team bereft of lefties. Danks, arguably, had his worse season since 2007 with us. KW has to also be considering that he is likely to pitch better in 2012 and bring his value up to where it belongs in the minds of most scouts and GM's.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2011 -> 10:03 PM) I can't repeat this enough. The White Sox have zero need for Brett Gardner. The White Sox have 5 outfielders who need playing time right now in the big leagues if you count the Stealth Elf. 5 outfielders for 3 positions, and DH is taken. The White Sox need to find a place for De Aza, Viciedo, and Rios to play this year. Carlos Quentin is already in the way of that. It's the only way we can find out what we have in those guys...all 3 of them have the talent to be legit starting MLB OF's, or at least the contract of them. And Lillibridge flat out earned playing time. Trading for Brett Gardner gives us 6 outfielders. It makes us need to trade Quentin and consigns both De Aza and Lillibridge to the bench or worse, to the DFA list. You might, might be able to pull off moving Lillibridge to SS, but there are 2 SS's on the way up in our minor leagues who can be the backup/young SS in a year or two. Worse still...Brett Gardner is not cheap any more. Brett Gardner is a first year arbitration eligible player this year. I repeat, Brett Gardner is a first year arb-eligible player this year. So we're talking something in the range of $3.5 million this year when the White Sox are uncompetitive...then $6-7 million next year, then $10 million or more if you want to keep him for the 3rd year. Brett Gardner will be half way cheap this year when the White Sox are rebuilding...then will immediately become expensive in 2013, and the White Sox may or may not be in a position to compete in 2013. Brett Gardner is an asset in 2012 for a team that needs outfielders, has money to spend, and wants to compete this year. The White Sox are NONE of these. If they were to actually contemplate taking on Rios' contract, which they PROBABLY wouldn't, he'd have to play somewhere in that outfield. Obviously they're not going to send us Swisher or Granderson back, so who would you suggest would make it work from their point of view? They would have no choice but to play Rios somewhere. Danks and Thornton have very little to no value to the White Sox this season, especially since Matt's not going to be the closer again but he's paid too high for a set-up guy. We already are paying Frasor and Crain too much for a rebuilding team. For all the reasons you're pointing out that Gardner is "bad" for the White Sox, it makes him more appealing to the Yankees to trade him. The main objective would be to get out from under that $35-40 million or whatever it is exactly we still owe Rios. And sure, Alex Rios could play just as well as Swisher did in NYC and KW would look silly and foolish again for giving up on a player. However, that same overpaid player hasn't performed for the Sox in 1 1/2 years. They can still trade Quentin whenever they want. I guess you could argue we have no choice but to trade him and that would give other teams leverage...or more leverage, but that all goes out the window with the first injuries in ST or early April/May. Besides, they know we have to trade Quentin anyway, in order to play Dayan and DeAza. And DeAza's the only logical leadoff hitter in the line-up, and already performed well there in limited opportunities last season. And you said 3 outfield positions, you can add Lillibridge's bat to the DH battle, either against all LHP if Dunn is still struggling or as depth/insurance that Adam completely goes into the tank again in 2012. Yes, I understand that trading Danks and Thornton gives us ZERO margin for error in competing, but it doesn't make it impossible. (Most importantly, it clears one of the two biggest weights around our payroll and gets rid of a clubhouse distraction/cancer, which can have nothing but a positive effect on team chemistry.) And that clears a little room to add a veteran pitcher/FA (someone like a Ben Sheets, Harden or Penny type for additional depth) that you can sign on an incentive-laden deal, another version of Cal Eldred from back in 2000. Trading Quentin, you can get another LHP to go with Ohman and Santiago in the pen, along with a position prospect or two. With Gardner and DeAza in the line-up, we'd have a lot more athleticism than we've had in recent years (no, Rios doesn't count the way he's dogged it). With Viciedo and Quentin at 1B/DH, you could even play Gardner, DeAza and Lillibridge together. AT THE VERY LEAST, watching that outfield and the multiple line-up options with the top and bottom of the order would be exciting for a change. And yeah, it's possible you wouldn't have enough pop, but you would still have Konerko, Viciedo, Dunn, Ramirez, AJ and Morel (assuming he hits with the power he showed the final 6 weeks), and Beckham can hopefully hit again sometime with the White Sox as well.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 17, 2011 -> 08:09 AM) Well with Reyes down there, he can count on at least a months worth of playing tim e. Not to mention Hanley Ramirez. So I would imagine 2B and 3B would be his best options for PT as a back-up.

QUOTE (MAX @ Dec 17, 2011 -> 12:18 AM) Rios + Danks for a player to be named later. Someone would do it. You'd have to throw in Thornton, too. Something like Rios, Danks and Thornton (because Boone Logan was their first lefty out the pen for most of the season) for Gardner or minor leaguers. Personally, I feel it would be better to hold onto Rios for at least another half season and see if he can turn it around again.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 16, 2011 -> 09:07 AM) Hard to really compare those two. Willingham is going to be an everyday starter, not a sometime DH. Plus, Thome is one of the greatest power hitters of his generation, even into the twilight of his career. Willingham is a good power hitter, but he seemingly wont have the luxury that Thome had with Kubel and Cuddyer in the lineup picking him up when he slumps. Willingham whiffed 150 times last year, thats a lot of wasted opportunities, and the Twins org doesnt really like to waste any opportunities. I could be wrong, he could have a Hardy revival Trading away Hardy for a so-so middle reliever, not replacing him at all (the Japanese MI failed miserably) and then having to admit the wrongness of the Delmon Young deal...those deals, along with totally gutting the bullpen with the exception of inexplicably bringing back Capps (to justify the trade)....goodbye, Mr. Smith.

QUOTE (spiderman @ Dec 16, 2011 -> 09:29 PM) Good point on Floyd - I think he's under contract for 2 more seasons meaning his contract would be a fixed cost for the Pirates. He does make good coin, but another benefit of acquiring him is that they could move him next off-season or before the trading deadline prior to his free agency if the Pirates are unable to contend and perhaps recoup a prospect. Floyd would seem to be a good option for any of the mid/smaller markets team in need of pitching. I think he would have more of a market than Danks right now with Danks impending free agency and his contract demands. That's a big financial committment and prospects. Except there's not really a compelling reason to trade Floyd, unless we're bowled over with an offer. Definitely, we could be competitive by 2013, the last year of his contract. We know he'll be wildly inconsistent within the course of the season but put up the same numbers he normally does at year's end. and we need a stabilizing veteran presence to balance things out with Peavy obviously leaving after 2012 and Danks already on the way out of town. I'd keep Floyd, and just pencil him in as the #3 starter the next two years. That gives you Sale and Molina to be the frontline starters, Humber as your 4 and Stewart, Axelrod, Santiago and Petricka to battle it out for the back end of the rotation/longman spot.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 16, 2011 -> 09:31 PM) Do people really think Santiago is a starter candidate? Just as much confidence in him as Stewart or Axelrod. And we DEFINITELY need at least one LH starter in our rotation if Buehrle and Danks are both gone. That's 50% of the reason he'll really be given a chance to prove himself this spring. He can get it up there 92-93-94 MPH, that's playable for a lefty, and quite comparable to Danks' heater. It would be crazy to argue he'll be as good or better, but if he can keep improving that screwball, it will have the same effect as the change-up does for both our lefties.

QUOTE (spiderman @ Dec 16, 2011 -> 09:22 PM) I really do see the White Sox adding any free agents until well after the New Year's when bargain basement shopping would be done (maybe not even then), AND the White Sox have executed their off-season plan, presumably moving Carlos Quentin and possibly a few pitchers amongst Danks/Floyd/Thornton. If they do trade away a few of their own, they may have just enough loose change to sign a couple veterans for cheap, 1 year deals to provide some semblance of depth (maybe a 4th OF behind De Aza, Viceido and Rios although they may just stick with Lillibridge) although I still think that what is already here will make up nearly all of the 25 man roster. The only direction that's logical for a FA is trading Thornton and then replacing him with another "journeyman" type in the realm of Arthur Rhodes or Darren Oliver. Don't trust Ohman at all as the primary LH guy in late inning, pressure situations. We'll find out quickly enough if they want to waste a year of Santiago's development as a starter to make him the 2nd lefty in the pen.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 16, 2011 -> 07:23 PM) The wins would be in the low 80's. There is no way Dunn will be as bad as last year. Sale will do well in the rotation. Peavy will be decent after a year of strengthening. They would be better but not great. I hope there are many more moves to come. As the roster stands, as now, maybe! But that rotation might be in shambles without Floyd and/or Danks. That's assuming Peavy can stay healthy, Sale can get past the 5th inning in less than 100 pitches, Humber is at least serviceable and Stewart doesn't start to remind of us of Felix Diaz/Sean Tracey/Jon Adkins. Outside of the Tigers, though, they should be competitive with every team in the division, at worst.

Yeah, 73-75 wins would be much more likely, based on what we saw last year out of Beckham and Axis of Evil...and how Humber faded down the stretch as well. Not to mention the likelihood that the bullpen won't settle down into their roles until halfway through the season, and Ohman will quickly get overexposed if you trade Thornton.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 16, 2011 -> 07:49 AM) I don't think losing 63 innings should signal a complete firesale. I still believe Williams has done a terrible job this offseason, but I'm sure he went into the Winter Meetings with intentions of trading a lot of pieces for younger pieces but needed the packages to back that up and wasn't receiving what he needed. I'm sure he also targeted players and that one of them was Molina. When he found out that he could acquire Molina by trading a reliever, whose max value to a team really is ~2 WAR, he pulled the trigger. I'm in agreement with the above poster(s) suggesting that they either blow it up completely or pretty much leave the rest in tact. The only guy who I feel is an absolute necessity to move right now is Quentin. I doubt you get any compensation for him as a free agent and he could net a quality prospect or two, plus the Sox can field a full and competent outfield without Quentin right now. You can then make a depth signing or two as well. If they do feel the need to trade Danks, then throughout the course of the season, several other pieces should be dealt as well. Agreed, the problem is that we can net 2X the prospects for Danks as we can for Quentin. Tough position to be in for KW. There's definitely less depth in the starting rotation. You can easily imagine (well, maybe not SO easily) getting Quentin's overall production (especially when you consider games missed due to injuries, HBP, etc.) from either Viciedo or DeAza...maybe 50-75 points lower, but you're also saving $6-7 million in the process. Of course, that money won't be plugged back in anywhere soon. So for the OF and DH position, you have six guys now in DeAza, Rios, Quentin, Viciedo, Dunn and Lillibrige. The odds are seemingly quite high that at least 2 of those guys, if not more, will fail. On the other hand, there's still a MUCH better chance at competing with Danks than with Quentin. And the other concern with trading Danks is that puts a lot more pressure on the organization and KW to promote Molina before he's 100% ready. With a Danks trade, you're forcing every member of the rotation up a spot. Floyd Sale Peavy Humber Stewart/Molina/Axelrod/Santiago Forecasting any of those guys is extremely difficult, except for Floyd. (Another of the unappreciated strengths of a Buehrle in the rotation). Which Humber and Peavy are we going to get? Even if Sale is lights-out and an All-Star, how many innings can he realistically be expected to pitch before they would be forced to shut him down, potentially in the middle of a pennant race if all goes right. Still, looking at it long-term, you almost have to trade Danks at some point this season. The worst-case scenario is you hold onto him and the team's "sort of in contention" around the ASB, they fade again at the end and you get very little of immediate value back in return.

QUOTE (striker @ Dec 16, 2011 -> 08:14 AM) The most interesting ones to me are Medlen and Surkamp. If you could find 2 2.5-3WAR pitchers out of that group then your rotation becomes inexpensive enough to sign/trade for 1 or 2 studs to head the rotation. I see no problem with stocking up with #3-#5 starter prospects. If you get 4 of them and 2 of them pan out as starters then I think you've made progress. The challenge will be finding your #1 and #2 starters. Already tried that with Peavy. They're obviously gambling that BOTH Sale and Molina can be 1-2-3 caliber starters. From just a brief glimpse, still going to predict that Santiago's the dark-horse to compete legitimately for a spot in the rotation...prefer to hope he can be Johan Santana-Lite rather than another Arnie Munoz, Mike Porzio or Josh Stewart. If neither of those guys makes it, and Stewart is merely a 5 or long man in the bullpen, this team is set back another 12-18 months at least (unless some minor miracle occurs and Dunn/Peavy/Rios become tradeable again). Even with the freed up payroll space, there's going to have to be a lot more due diligence before KW acquires any big-time salary through trade or free agency.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Beane hold out for too much with Gonzalez and overshoot the market. Plus, as they've already traded Cahill, they won't be quite as desperate to move Gio as well...especially as they need SOME type of future to project if they're ever to get a stadium/relocation deal approved. For all we know, Darvish might be a victim of collusion (teams deliberately offering a lower posting fee) and past disappointing Japanese pitching results and he'll be taken off the market completely. Then again, the Yankees and Red Sox have hardly made a peep since the season ended, so maybe they're operating in stealth mode on this one...although both teams have been burned numerous times with international pitcher signings in the last 10 years or so.

It's also telling that two guys who got a lot of pub around here, Doyle and Tyler Kuhn, seemingly never figured in the organization's long-term plans. Maybe Tyler is a victim of the CJ Retherford/Shelby, Jr., curse of not having one position he's really adept at.

Soptic sounds like another Nathan Jones in the making. Interesting that Gilmore and Santos Rodriguez now seem to be totally off the radar. Josh Phegley, as well. Remenowsky has also disappeared. Axelrod, Petricka, Santiago, Leesman, Infante, Marinez, Snodgress and Soptic provide...at the very least, some competition for the 5/6 bullpen slots, especially if Thornton and Frasor/Crain are both traded. Oswaldo Martinez and Eduardo Escobar seem poised to duke it out for the final utility spot on the roster that Vizquel is vacating.

1. Danks 2. Quentin 3. Thornton 4. Floyd (but definitely the most likely of the four to stay, and the most comfortable with the Sox and Cooper) 5. AJ 6. Crain or Frasor (a bit superfluous to have both these guys on the roster, but perhaps they want some insurance for Reed, especially with Thornton looking to be traded and the added responsibility going to Ohman/Santiago/trade addition). 7. Lillibridge (if we can get a sweet offer for him, although probably better to hold on as insurance for Beckham, Morel, DeAza, SS, CF, 1B, DH) 8. Konerko/Ramirez/Beckham