caulfield12

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 09:19 PM) Danks better not go anywhere except into Reinsdorf's office to sign an extension. Jackson is looking good ands if we have five solid starters I say keep them. Pitching wins games Hello, Ranger! Joking. Of course, it's not the offense to blame for any losses this season. We can simply blame it on Jenks and Putz and make them the convenient scapegoats, right?

Boone Logan has put together a decent career with the Yankees. It would have been nice to get him straightened out so we would never have to witness the Williams Era. It's funny, with Richard, Garland, Hudson, Ely and Haeger, you could theoretically have a competitive NL West rotation, well...maybe not Charlie. Perhaps that hypothetical team would try to use Poreda instead. Right now, you can definitely make a compelling argument that the money from Jenks and Linebrink would have given us plenty of money to give us a competitive offense, enough to hold off the Twins. Just keeping Thome and Minnesota not having him should have been enough to get it done, without someone like Damon or Vladimir Guerrero or Aubrey Huff. And it would be nice to have Juan Uribe's clutch-ness around, the guy has 3 walk-off hits this year and always seems to come through in the clutch. Vizquel's been great, but it's a shame that Juan kind of grew stale and didn't continue to improve after his first couple of seasons in Chicago.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 09:21 PM) You can't go 3 deep at every position, especially at catcher with a rookie. You'd have to bring in a backup plan. So who would you rather have as the starter in 2011, AJ, Castro or Flowers?

But is it possible to turn over one of the best pitching staffs in baseball to Tyler Flowers? I don't know. If they could get Castro into better shape, it might be better to bring him back as the starter, but how long until he broke down catching full-time? If you traded Flowers and Castro was hurt, then you're left with who exactly? The problem with our pitching staff is the affordability issue. I don't see how we can fit all those guys into the rotation without playing Viciedo, Flowers and possibly Jordan Danks next year. Which means a TON of growing pains offensively...and the offense was bad enough as it was. I guess the only positive is that having to watch young hitters struggling is more compelling than watching Kotsay, AJ, Teahen and Andruw Jones flail away.

Wow, A-Rod just hit his 3rd homer of the night. I don't like the guy, but that won't happen too often in the post-steroids era. Amusing that Rodriguez is the one to pull it off.

The problem with Jackson is you only have him for 2011, so then you're really in rebuilding mode if you're trading Danks two seasons before he's a free agent, unless you're lucky enough to make the kind of trades the Tigers did getting Austin Jackson/Scherzer types who were major league ready...and who actually pan out and don't go bust (like the Johan Santana deal for the Twins). KW is in a heckuva pickle with the decisions on AJ and Konerko this offseason. It will be interesting to see if AJ would be willing to sign a one-year deal. Trading Danks? I hope that KW's scouts find the right players, because that will be the one move he can make that will bring in 2-3 top prospects. He's not going to trade Ramirez or Beckham. Well, welcome to the closer's job Santos/Thornton/Sale!

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 09:03 PM) Twins are 23-11 since Morneau got injured, and they're batting .300 during that time. You have to tip your cap to them for overcoming a huge injury to a top 5 player in the AL. And that's with their best player (for the first half) in Young looking like Alex Rios the last month. Probably the key to this season might end up being the insertion of Duensing into the rotation, the guy's 6-1 with a 2.00 ERA. You continue to get that level of pitching from him, with Pavano and Liriano, Baker and Slowey suddenly look pretty darned solid at the back end of the rotation.

We had our chance to build a bit of a cushion playing the Orioles and the Twins at home. That's gone, and now we're really looking to be in bad shape because we can't match up with teams like the Yankees and Red Sox offensively, unless we get shut-outs every time out.

This game might go down as the beginning of the end. Unless they can take 2/3 of Minnesota, it's going to get away from the Sox.

Great job by Thornton pitching out of trouble. Let's hope Putz can get it done. Boesch seems to have the same exact weak spot now as Viciedo after looking like the Rookie of the Year the first 3 months of the season.

Pierre terribly misplayed that ball. Turned the wrong way, drifted instead of going back to the wall and then finding it again.

I don't know what's going on, the crowd's basically a sellout, Jackson's pitching a great (albeit laborious) game, but it's just not really that exciting for some reason. Twins up 2-0 in the bottom of the 8th, what else is new? Thornton in instead of Sale.

The problem with Eat, Pray, Love is simply that there's very little conflict in the story. Unless you define conflict as Liz Gilbert's "inner unhappiness" and lack of contentment. I also think it's close to impossible to express mystical/spirital experiences (the Indian ashram part) without seeming hokey cinematically. A co-worker kept on talking so much about this book that I basically agreed to read it in order to get her to stop raving about it...it wasn't horrible, but the middle section (maybe because I'm just not into meditating at all, although I am going to Mount Everest in two months if that counts) was so boring I skipped over it entirely. If you enjoy travelling, it's probably watchable, but more of a DVD/netflix movie and not worth the ticket price, unless you absolutely miss seeing Julia Roberts leading a movie after so long.

Of course, the other side of this argument is people who have little to no experience playing the game at a high level, but dismiss all statistics and refuse to discuss them with those who swear by them, lol. I do agree with one sentiment expressed in the original message post. That MOST people in baseball, while they have a healthy and growing respect for the new metrics, are always going to be biased in favor of the "good 'ol boy" network in baseball, and most major league front offices and coaching staffs will be filled with former players and coaches. I don't think you will ever find a coaching staff using "stats geeks" in any area but the front office, because the players won't ever treat them seriously. I consider Sosnick one of the few agents who has ever made it into the "inner circle" without a playing background and he had a VERY VERY difficult time, and he had the luxury of being basically a young, super rich guy who wanted to get more involved in the game....as someone with background in Sports Management (that doesn't qualify me as an expert either), I've seen most of my peers get stuck in marketing types of jobs, although a few have made it in coaching. Still, those who made it in coaching/scouting had backgrounds playing in those areas, at least at the college level. Yes, there's Beane, Epstein, Daniels, Byrnes (fired), Jack Z. (he's losing his reputation already this year for building a team almost entirely based on defensive metrics), Ricciardi, DiPodesta, the young GM in Cleveland who will replace Shapiro, but of that new generation of GM's, none of them has been an unqualified success, and I would even say there's something of rebound back to the side of traditional scouting MIXED with a bit of SABR analysis. It's easy to use the Red Sox as an example, but it's like Phil Jackson...we'll never know if Theo could take over the Royals or Pirates and turn those organizations around with limited budgetary resources, whether you have Bill James around or not. In fact, I think most young SABR people believe James has been passed up already by the young generation of stat geeks. The other thing that's interesting is you still see VERY VERY women in baseball, or Asians (there are exceptions, because the Mariners' ownership group, Christine Ng, etc.)

I think what started this debate was Dave Cameron writing that because he (Greinke) referenced a SABR stat once (like FIP or something like that), that it was therefore somehow logical that he was also upset with the Royals because Yuniesky Betancourt has one of the worst UZR ratings in baseball, or something like that...also, the idea that players and agents will start using these stats to criticize their FO's or speak out in the press. I think that was a bit of a stretch...using statistics to back up your arguments is always helpful, but it's definitely not the be-all, end-all to debate. In fact, someone brought up how the Twins had never used any kind of SABR analysis at all until the 2010 season, their famous quote from GM Smith about "trusting their eyes" in terms of scouting. In actuality, Greinke has seen Meche go down with injuries, rumors about Soria being traded, Farnsworth gone, Pods gone, Guillen gone, Ankiel gone, Callaspo gone...it's logical that his comments were more reflective of these transactions than how good Betancourt's range factor was at any given moment.

Unless he can play 3B, he's blocked by Lillibridge, Beckham, Ramirez, Teahen, Vizquel and Viciedo. I guess it depends if Vizquel returns in 2011 and if Lillibridge can sustain his hitting, because he brings a lot to the team as a pinch-runner. It's still a big question who plays 3B next year.

QUOTE (RME JICO @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 06:18 AM) The Twins have been a better team (or at least finished higher than us in the standings) every year except 2000, 2005, and 2008. So I would think that would correlate more to who wins the head to head battle year in and year out. So obviously if they are a better team for 7 out of the last 10 years, then they will also have a pretty good lead in the head to head games as well. So our performance against them seems to dictate how we will finish. If we don't win the last couple of series vs them, and bring the head to head record closer, it is hard to see how we can catch them. But it's still quite difficult to explain that 4-19 second half record (sure, 2009, we weren't good for any consistent stretch) especially 1-6 in the second half of 2008. And I don't think many White Sox players or fans would admit that the 2003 and 2004 Twins should have beaten the White Sox or that were even the superior team...usually 2003 is blamed on Manuel and 2004 on injuries (and the MetroDome disadvantage). Clearly, the 2009 Twins were better.

QUOTE (RME JICO @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 07:01 AM) Do the 2001 White Sox really have any relevance to how the 2010 White Sox will perform against the Twins this year? Well, since Buehrle and Konerko were around in 2001, maybe it's just one little bit of the history. 2000 and 2005 really shouldn't count either, by that way of thinking...or 4-19 the last three years after the All-Star Break, but it's certainly getting in the heads of Ozzie and his wife.

Including 2000 and 2005, and 2010... 85-107 After the All-Star Break, 35-62 (overall), 50-45 before ASB At Minnesota after the ASB, 18-35 (17-27 at USCF) 2003 (losing the last five games in a row), 2004 (2-7 after Break), 2008 (1-6), 2009 (1-8) and 2010 (2-5) have been the years that are (or will be) most remembered. In 2001, the Twins were up and coming and we were injury-decimated. By my count, Ozzie Guillen is 64-72 against the Twins, including Game 163. (1-4-1) 10-20 (11-26 going back to 2nd half of 2008) the last two years and not having beaten them head-to-head since 2005, not so good.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 02:22 AM) What a crock of s***. The Twins are the Sox biggest competitors this year and it's to the point where it is almost a yearly occurance. The fact that they can't beat them or that the fans expectations are to split is outrageous. I guarantee you that neither Red Sox nor Yankees fans ever go into that series and think that going 9-9 "is hoping for too much." This is a major league baseball team and they should have the ability to beat the living hell out of the Twins. Maybe I'm just a crazy optimist, but I expect the Sox to win the next two series. The Sox will have their best 3 pitchers going against the Twins next week, and if you can't win 2 out of 3 with your best 3 going against the team in direct competition with you, then you probably don't deserve to be in the postseason anyways. I went back and looked at the season, head-to-head over the last decade. 2001=5-14 2002=8-11 2003=9-10 2004=9-10 2006=9-10 2007=9-9 2008=8-10 (9-10 counting Game 163) 2009=6-12 Nothing terrible, right? Overall 63-86. Well, definitely not great, that's for sure. (I'll add in the 2000 and 2005 numbers later to see how much it helps). Here's where the big problems start for Sox fans. After the All-Star Break during that time period, 23-48 (14-20 at USCF) against the Twins. 9-28 in Minnesota, AFTER the All-Star Break. That's why I put 2-4 (realistically) is about the best I'd hope for.

CircleChange11 says: August 13, 2010 at 10:51 am [1] You know who would appreciate these baseball metrics … NERDS … highly educated guys who went to academic colleges, and like to nerd it up. Ohlendorf and the like. Academic types that enjoy the details of a formula/scenario. You know how many of those guys are in MLB? Not many. [2] I would also bet that guys tend to like sabermetric stuff when they lead in a category. Want me to speak on the wonders of FIP? Show me that I’m the best at it, and my other bad stats are due to team defense. I’m all over that. I’d bet right now, Cliff Lee really appreciates the K:BB metric. It’s probably his favorite stat. *grin* [3] Not only do many major leaguers not pay attention to what we say … many of them think we have no right to say it. The whole not speaking from experience part. IMO, we’re like a homeless guy writing a book on how to make millions … in the opinion department. The value of sites like this are the extensions of the mega-research done and brought to the masses. But a lot of what is written here is just wrong opinion. If someone were to keep “individual W-L records” for the authors, what would the winning % be for each guy? [4] The article (by Dave Cameron) says that Yuni (Betancourt) has the range of a wilted teen. No, Yuni has the range of a major league shortstop, which makes him what? 1 out of 10 million people to have the skill/ability? You really think any athlete is going to come and read stuff like that and give credence to some keyboard jockey's opinion? [5] When Crash Davis gets a 5y/110M contract and for justification the GM states, “He has the most WAR of any catcher over the last 4 years.” THEN, Nuke will say, “Hey Annie, what’s all this WAR stuff.” We drastically overestimate our influence and popularity in the mainstream. Growing, yes? Influential? No. Potential to educate lots of fans? Yes. from fangraphs.com message boards

I think the Orioles gave out a ton of money to Denys Baez, Jamie Walker and maybe Chad Bradford 3-4 years ago. Those were not the best-laid plans, it's like picking mutual funds coming off their highest performances and thinking they'll repeat...very rarely does that happen with relievers, Linebrink was reliable as they come in the NL for about 8-10 years and he basically fell apart after his first four months with the White Sox.

If they brought him up to finish the season in the SAL with Kannapolis, those results would be a LITTLE more impressive. Still, for an SEC college player, you really have to see how they fare in the Carolina/Cal/Florida State Leagues before you can make ANY predictions that remotely approximate predictive validity.

2-4 seems like a much safer prediction against the Twins, 3-3 might be hoping a bit too much.

Oakland gets 12 hits and has managed only 2 runs somehow. Twins escape from another bases loaded, one out situation with a double play behind Jesse Crain. Carter has left 5 men on base, of course.