caulfield12

Damon in the line-up (over the Jones/Kotsay combo) means 844 runs scored instead of 808...big difference. Of course, repeating that .365 OBP and almost 500 SLG won't be easy for him at age 36.

Well, I'd much rather pay Damon $4-5 million and try the "audition by committee" bullpen approach that failed so miserably before than spend that money on Downs. No way do I spend that money on Scott. Ever since David Riske, we've been failing to offer arbitration to most of our veteran players at the end of their contracts. I just don't see how you spend that kind of money on the last roster spot compared to investing it in Johnny Damon, who very well could be an impact bat and the last piece of the puzzle in our roster construction.

You could probably add Viciedo and Jordan Danks into that depth chart as well.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Jan 29, 2010 -> 12:01 PM) Leslie put up huge numbers last year, and consistently has a high average and a high OBP. "In 2008-2009, Anderson batted .381/.490/.572. He finished 5th in the batting race behind Michel Enríquez, Yulieski Gourriel, Yorelvis Charles and Giorvis Duvergel. He also won a Gold Glove at first base. He left Cuba following that season."http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Leslie_Anderson Vladimir Guerrero's name also was derived from the Russian presence in the Caribbean/Cuba in the 60's and 70's.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 29, 2010 -> 08:06 PM) A lot should go to Herm and our training staff too. I think we often forget what an incredible boon they are to our organization. We must be constantly beating time played predictions because as a whole the Sox are exceptional at limiting DL trips and keeping necessary ones minimum length It is a BIT amusing how 90% of the credit goes to KW, Hermie and Don Cooper and about 10% goes to Guillen/Cora/Baines/Walker, etc.

Well, there was a LOT more heartbreak in the 60's and 70's because of the nature of the American League. There weren't three divisions with a wildcard. If the 2005 team would have ended up not making the playoffs, I think you could make a much stronger argument that would resonate with White Sox fans. 2005 changed everything. Nobody writing today remember the Black Sox Scandal or lived through it, I'm sure if this article was written in 1955 it'd be a quite different one. The Cubs also have the Billy Goat, Leon Durham/1984...1989 was forgotten because of the earthquake, 1969 will ALWAYS be used as the example of blowing a huge lead, along with I think the 64 Phillies. Who was that left fielder that muffed the ball again? Brant Brown? And the Cubs have blown their own lead in the final weeks, too.... The White Sox suffered because of mostly bad teams and cash-poor ownership for three decades, although a lot of Sox fans fondly reminisce about the 1977 South Side Hitmen team...the closest thing to that was the 2000 and 2006 teams (first half) in modern club history. When I think of losing baseball franchises, the Cubs and the Indians are the ones that come to mind, and the Indians have been to a couple of World Series in the last 15 years.

Well, that's logical (and I'm not sure it's taking defense negatively into account for Ramirez and Beckham in 2009), but Beckham's going to be a Top 3-5 second baseman in the majors (silly to compare him to 3B in the long term) and I think Ramirez, while perhaps never putting up Soriano-esque homer and stolen base numbers, is a Top 7-10 SS. Konerko signed a "fair market value" deal after the World Series, actually a bit below what a couple of other teams were offering. Because of the economic depression and due to the fact that 1B/DH/corner outfielders are now taking significant pay cuts, he's probably overpaid by about $4-6 million, but that's okay. Still would have regretted losing him more, although maybe if Contreras, Linebrink and Paulie had signed shorter contracts we would have been in much better shape financially.

QUOTE (Ranger @ Jan 28, 2010 -> 10:00 AM) caulfield, thank you for the thoughts. There is no question that I should be respectful in how I criticize the team, but that's really not a mandate handed down from somebody above me. It's just common sense. You can criticize management, coaches and players, but you shouldn't be a foaming-mouth idiot when you do it. After all, I have to see those people every day and I have to be accountable for what I say. Mariotti wrote whatever he wanted (and let's be honest here, he wasn't being fair, he was being ridiculous) but in the 4 years I've been doing this job, he was never in the locker room one time. Whatever you're willing to say about people on the air or in print, you better be able to say to their faces. Nothing wrong with being respectful. In fact, it's the right way to do it. I won't apologize for that. There's just a right way to do things and that's how I choose to do it. What you don't know is that perception varies. I've had Kenny say to me on at least two occasions that he thought I "hammered" him in a couple of interviews I did. I was really surprised by that, because I thought I was simply asking fair questions of him. He wasn't angry or anything, he just said it sort of matter-of-factly but with a grin. It was just kind of funny, because I didn't see it that way. It could be because, believe it or not, I think he's a bit nervous in media situations. He's definitely nervous speaking in front of a crowd. I've also had a few players and coaches unhappy with me for things that I've said. It happens at least a few times a year. And sometimes it's for something minor, like Podsednik, who was upset a couple of years back that I suggested he might be good in a bench role. He didn't like that, but it wasn't unfair to say. It also didn't affect us after that. He understood I have a job to do. But, I also wouldn't say I'm in Jerry's "inner circle" either. I don't talk to him all that much, and it's very brief when I do speak to him. I don't even know what the guy thinks of me. He might think I'm terrible for all I know. The ultimate decision of whether I do this job really isn't his, it's up to the station. Wills, by the way, was very good and he's got himself a pretty good job right now. I like him very much. But, believe me, when the Sox lose I'm as upset as anyone else. I mean, I try to forget about it by the time I get home, but I hate it when they play like garbage. Thanks for your thoughtful response. In the end, all White Sox fans are on the same side, we want the team to win and to always be proud of them. Whether we're from Red States or Blue States, we're all dyed in "purple" Sox fans....just kidding. Frustration can get the best of anyone on certain occasions (I remember three games in my lifetime, the one where Denny Hocking ended it with a homer against Foulke, the Carlos Gomez/Jenks game at the HHH in late 2008, the time I woke up in Colombia, South America and really panicked when I saw the ESPN Deportes scoreboard showing the White Sox had blown a huge lead against the Kansas City Royals), but we settle down eventually and get over it and act (hopefully) like adults. It's interesting the comment you made about KW. He went to Stanford, he's ultra-confident (almost too sure of himself, seemingly), and yet there always seems to be that transcendant desire to prove others wrong or "to prove he's smarter than everyone else." Perhaps some of that insecurity and nervousness is masked by that "combative/prickly" facade that he has with fans at events like SoxFest or with the media from time to time. Perhaps part of it grew out of his frustration with the negative portrayal in "Moneyball," the criticism after the Ritchie trade, the Sirotka fallout, the Berry/Barry mistake, he made a number of them in his first view years on the job. Then there was the confrontation with Frank Thomas that didn't sit well with everyone, either. I've gone from being on the fence about KW to being a huge supporter (2005 being the most obvious reason, of course), and I find myself defending about 90% of what he does. FWIW, having a GM with a chip of his shoulder is usually a good thing, it's the current manager that most fans are worried has been resting on his laurels a bit in recent years, the Mike Ditka Syndrome to an extent. With that said, I'm 100% an Ozzie supporter, too. He gave us a championship in our lifetime, and I'm not sure how many other managers could have done the same thing....to keep that team from totally collapsing in September and then making them feel so relaxed that they just cruised through the playoffs and halfway through the 2006 season believing they were the best team in baseball.

But Bob Grim, Chris' boss, is a member of the White Sox FO, right? That's where it gets murky/tricky...the lines get crossed even more with mergers and shareholders in different media conglomerates around the world and country.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 28, 2010 -> 07:57 AM) thanks flaxx but i wasn't talking about soxtalk mgmt. Rather the incessant posting from Rongey criticizing anyone who doesn't think the white sox management is acting in the most rational sane course, and when he gets a chance to, he acts for ESPNs. I'll admit to taking the same shot a day or two ago. I know it's not easy to be in the position he's in, he can't be completely candid like Ozzie Guillen, Jimmy Piersall or Harry Caray, etc. In fact, over time, I think he's matured quite a bit from the very first days in terms of engaging with callers and figuring out which ones to dump or not to let go on and on forever with the same points or monopolize their air time without even asking a question. He doesn't get frustrated as easily, I think that's the biggest difference. Of course, when you're the new guy, people will compare you to past hosts, and a lot of Sox fans really liked Dave Wills, and he was also very open/honest sometimes with his frustrations, more like he was "sharing" the pain of fans than trying to rebut their arguments. It's a fine line...definitely. As an employee of the White Sox first and foremost, people will understand anything he says on-line and some will assume or extrapolate it as the "team position" on many issues. He naturally has to be more careful with what he says...and I know he wants to share his unique insights and the level of access he enjoys is obviously better than a Joe Cowley or Mariotti that aren't/weren't respected by the team/players/management. In fact, after Director of Community Relations, he has the job that I once coveted when I was getting my MS in Sports Administration and starting to work with the Augusta GreenJackets. I gave up that dream after only a couple of seasons because I was too impatient AND I thought it would be very difficult to make it into the front office without having been an MLB player or at least having reached the high minors. Now things are changing in that regard, Daniels in Texas, some of the new GM's with the Epstein/MBA/Ivy League backgrounds as well as the SABR GM's like Ricciardi and DiPodesta. Another thing to consider, I'm sure he grew up with Jack Buck and Mike Shannon. Cardinals' fans tend to be more "genteel" and respectful (not necessarily more knowledgeable, but certainly not as confrontational) and I think that's part of the way he approaches his job...he's part of Jerry Reinsdorf's family, there's a tremendous amount of loyalty shown to those who make it into the "inner circle" in White Sox FO and I hope he can continue to progress in his career.

I agree with witesox....Kubel's getting better and better as his knee is bothering him less than after the reconstruction. Some Twins' fans I know would argue that he's actually better than Young because Delmon has so many bad habits on the field that haven't been corrected since his days with TB...the same "lazy" habits which have caused Gardy and Smith to look into possibly dumping him the last two offseasons. Some theorize Smith is "forcing" him on the fans simply because the Garza/Bartlett deal looks so one-sided and he stills hopes to get some return out of his investment. Count Branyan as another player on this list who was looking for a multi-year deal -- the first of his career -- but hasn't gotten one, and won't. The Mariners tried to re-sign him for a single year in November, but he turned them down, and GM Jack Zduriencik subsequently continued his quest to assemble a team that allows no batted ball to fall to the earth by trading for Casey Kotchman in January. The White Sox, who once seemed to be composed entirely of first baseman/DH-types, could actually now use a first baseman/DH-type, and they might represent one of the last options for one of 2009's breakout players. www.espn.com

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 09:48 PM) Well in fairness to Law, he is a stats guy. Floyd was posting 6 K/9, 5 BB/9. That's not a Major League pitcher. Gavin Floyd's turnaround was seemingly unforeseeable by everyone other than Kenny and his scouting team. I bet there are a ton of ESPN types who were wrong on Edwin Jackson in 2009 or Jon Danks in 2008, too. Or giving up on Homer Bailey after 2009. Just imagine if we could have pulled off that Bailey trade, knowing what has happened since. :-( By the way, where is Chris Carter? I've seen him ranked 20-35 on some Top 100 lists out there.

If Thome is getting 300-350 at-bats against primarily LHP, his SLG/OBP/OPS numbers would INCREASE, not decrease. Average Thome's numbers with Delmon Young/Kubel, and they have to be an even stronger team unless Thome absolutely falls off a cliff, but I don't foresee that happening.

I think McClatchy was trying to find a buyer recently. I'm assuming this is because of the downturn in profits from his media (mostly newspaper) empire... Sadly, the most profitable thing he will do for the rest of his media career is probably sell the Pirates and they will end up relocating with that beautiful new stadium becoming a ghost town. I hope not, Roberto Clemente and Pops Stargell would be turning over in their graves.

QUOTE (Ranger @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 05:17 PM) I see plenty of reason to believe the defense will at least be "fine". It should be plenty better than last year, for sure. Clearly, the outfield defense will be stronger than it was last year, especially if Jones could play the OF with Quentin DHing. Pierre is probably one of the most fundamentally/mentally sound players in the game, he doesn't make mental mistakes. He will always be limited by his arm strength, but we won't be holding our heads in our hands with anxiety every time a ball goes into LF like we did with Pods (and yes, he was actually better last year than in the past). Rios will be very good in CF and RF and reminds me a lot of Devon White, so smooth and effortless he actually looks lazy. No diving around on nearly every play like Aaron Rowand. However, Teahen is always going to be shaky at 3B...unless we compare him to Fields. Or maybe he will finally "relax" if he can play just one position and not worry about the outfield, 2B, 1B, etc. Ramirez SHOULD be better in his second full season, and Beckham SHOULD be better than Getz as a converted SS. Konerko is Konerko. I expect "middle of the pack" defensive numbers from this team. The Twins went from one of the worst defenses to "very good" in just a season or two, same with the Mariners, it's possible.

QUOTE (heirdog @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 03:38 PM) This analysis was flawed from the start. You can't say Konerko won't have a career avg year and at the same time say Thome will. One has a hip issue, the other a back issue...one is still significantly younger than the other. One still played pretty much the whole year last year and put up better numbers...that one is Konerko, not Thome. And the final nail in the coffin is when someone noted that only 5 teams scored over 800 runs and only the Yanks over 900. As soon as we see that, we can throw out the 939 twinkie number and go back to the drawing board. If you noted later in the thread, I swapped out Thome for Punto, it drove them down to a measly 900 runs. This was based on last year's averages for the Twins, and I used just last year's numbers for Thome, not his career numbers, which are obviously stronger. The difference for Paulie from career to last year was just 0.07 on OBP and about 0.16 on SLG. When I recalculated, the White Sox went from 808 to 800 if I more realistically bumped Konerko down a bit. If I went with Andruw Jones' 2009 numbers alone instead of the 3 year sliding average, things might have been better, same with Pierre. HOWEVER, since Quentin and Rios were given credit for their overall average numbers over a career, that obviously was a big jump over what they both produced last year. Many are HOPING Beckham can put up an 850, but I think it's fair to leave him around 807 for now. As someone else noted, Kubel and Cuddyer had great years, and Mauer as well. Are those repeatable? Probably not. Of course, the chances are that Harris and Punto won't get all of those at-bats either over the course of a season. If you stick Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez or Orlando Cabrera (742 OPS) into the equation instead of Punto's (622/624) line, the numbers shoot up again for the Twins. Or even Joe Crede.

Either somebody tricked Ozzie Guillen into believing the White Sox are moving to the NL Central and thus don't need a designated hitter, or he's been persuaded it's 2002 all over again. Guillen told reporters on Monday that the White Sox won't bring back slugger Jim Thome(notes) and instead will use a rotation that includes Andruw Jones(notes), Mark Kotsay(notes) and Omar Vizquel(notes). Guillen's rationale? Jones, Kotsay and Vizquel could grab a glove or mitt and play defense. All Thome can do is swing a bat and whatever that might be worth, it won't be worth Thome's or the Sox's time, says Guillen. From the Chicago Sun-Times: "It came down to getting enough at-bats,'' Guillen explained. "I don't want a season where Jim sits three or four days in a row and the media comes up to him and asks, 'You're not playing ...' This thing will become a soap opera." Remember, remember, the 25th of January. Because it might be the day the White Sox gave away first place. Thome turns 40 in August and — even though he finished the '09 season in the National League with the Dodgers — his days on defense are over. So Guillen has a point about roster flexibility. And it's great, I guess, that general manager Ken Williams is giving the manager meaningful input on how the roster is composed in the first place. But someone needed to nudge Ozzie in the ribs to remind him that Thome was the team's best offensive player in 2009. And now, in 2010, the White Sox have just made him fully available to the two other top contenders in their own division. The Twins and Tigers, along with the Rays in the AL East, have been sniffing around Thome — who was going to give his old club the right of first refusal. Foolishly, they have refused his services despite Thome leading the White Sox in on-base and slugging percentage in '09. The White Sox finished with 79 victories because they also finished near the bottom in runs scored in the AL. Getting rid of Thome doesn't improve their biggest weakness. So, the White Sox are counting on career seasons from Mark Teahen(notes) and Alex Rios(notes), and rebound from Carlos Quentin(notes), to make up for Thome's loss. On the off-chance all of that happens, they've still given their opponents a free shot to get better. Didn't Guillen and Williams imagine Thome in Minnesota's lineup instead of someone like Delmon Young(notes) or Brian Buscher(notes) at DH? And did he forget that two seasons ago, the White Sox and Twins needed 163 games to decide the AL Central? Chicago beat the Twins 1-0 on the last day of the regular season thanks in part to a solo home run by ... James Howard Thome. Guillen seems to be worried about managing the nine road interleague games, when DHs become nothing but well-paid pinch hitters. What about the other 95 percent of the time when the White Sox struggle to score runs in AL parks? Thome's replacements don't inspire much confidence. Jones claims to be in his best shape in a decade and he won 10 Gold Gloves in Atlanta. He used to be able to hit, too, so maybe he's come to his senses and again will be valuable. Kotsay played well for the White Sox last year and would seem to be a good bench guy — in the National League. His defensive metrics have gone way south the past two seasons, though. He's never been Thome with the bat, either. His resemblance to actor Stephen Baldwin neither hurts nor helps. Vizquel is a wonder at almost 43 years old, but if Guillen actually ever uses him as a designated hitter, Ozzie needs to be put down. It looks to me like the White Sox could use a power lefty bat in their lineup. Know of any on the market? David Brown, Yahoo Sports

With Jim Thome plugged in for Andruw Jones, the White Sox go from 800 runs scored to 843. Essentially, if Thome is playing everyday, he adds 39 runs to the Twins' line-up and 43 runs to the White Sox line-up. Net shift, 82 to the Twins. I didn't do the numbers swapping out Dye for Pierre, but I bet they'd be pretty close to 900.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...362&Model=1 With Punto (322 OBP/324 SLG) substituted for Thome, it knocks the Twins down to 900 runs scored (a difference of 39 runs per year having Thome over Nick Punto as DH, haha). Factoring in that we can't really expect Konerko to hit his career averages, it knocks the White Sox down to 800 runs scored. Which means we only need to pitch at 0.617 ERA below the Twins. Perhap the most interesting result (not to many) is that Gordon Beckham is the leadoff hitter in every scenario and Juan Pierre's the #9 hitter. Not that we'll ever see that happen. Not 100 a run difference, but with Dye (340/490) instead of Pierre and Thome in the line-up, we're at 862 runs scored. Of course, that's not taking into consideration outfield defense, simply an offensive metric. It is interesting that at least on paper we're losing about 0.4 RPG, plus the Twins are definitely gaining SOMETHING with Thome, maybe not 0.37, but probably 0.2. It's a net shift between the two teams of at least half a run per game, that's pretty huge.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...362&Model=1 It's a big "chunk" to copy and paste, but a combination of Span/Mauer/Thome/Morneau/Cuddyer/Kubel/D. Young/Hardy/Brendan Harris can give the Twins as many as 939 runs. Based on all of their stats for 2009, including Hardy's pretty terrible year. Next, I'll do a "head to head" comparison with the White Sox, and just to be "fair/er" to the likes of Carlos Quentin, I'll go with the career averages of OBP/SLG for all of our players except for Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre (2007-2009 numbers averaged). http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...393&Model=1 Doing the same for the White Sox gives 4.987 RPG or 808 for a full season. That's with my fairly generous counting the career average of Konerko, which I'm not sure we can expect out of him...bumping him down a bit puts us around 800 runs scored for the entire season. You can take out Thome and substitute Punto and that will obviously change those numbers a bit for the Twins, but the difference with Thome and Cuddyer both in the line-up would be 0.81 runs per game. In other words, if our pitching manages a 3.75 ERA (being optimistic), the Twins would be even with us at a 4.56 team ERA.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 11:10 AM) Heck, the Royals could have a better rotation with Greinke and Meche at the top. They have a better rotation than the Indians, but the reason they win games is because they have the M&M boys. While the Sox rotation is made of 1's and 2's (and Freddy), the Twins have a rotation of 4's and 5's and maybe a 3 in Duensing. Baker has the stuff to be a legit 2 starter, although he regressed last season. Slowey is more like a Sonnanstine type who profiles as a 4/5 but pitched like a 2/3 in 2008. Blackburn is a 3/4, although he has had his moments against us and has really been their "big game" pitcher. Perkins, if he can stay healthy, has a "plus" arm. Pavano was suprisingly good for them, he could be anything from a 3-5. He pitched much much better than his ERA of around 5 would indicate because of one or two really terrible outings, the rest were basically "quality" starts. Yes, it's a far cry from Santana/Liriano/Radke/Garza, but they got the job done last year. Then you throw other names onto the list like Liriano, Manship, Swarzak, they have a lot of depth. That's at least 9 starters. We have six, unless you count Torres and Hynick as 7 and 8.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 09:50 AM) Great post. And they're serious about Mauer too. I think they'll keep him. These are the new Twins, and they plan on kicking our asses through the next decade. Hopefully Kenny and Ozzie wake up. It's amazing the difference a year makes in baseball. I guess I haven't been as excited as I was last off-season simply because of the way the season ended...not quite like 2007, but disappointing nonetheless. I guess we'll just have to hope that Hudson, Flowers, Mitchell, Viciedo and Danks all become regular contributors with the big league club, and you know the likelihood of that happening is about 3-5%. As far as Mauer goes, if they make the playoffs again (and you know he'll enjoy having Thome in the clubhouse, just like Konerko and Dye did), it's hard to imagine him leaving for New York. They lost Santana eventually and managed to get a horrible return, but I think Mauer is cut out of a different cloth, he's a Twin Cities native and he just seems very comfortable playing for the Twins. With the new field, there's not as much concern about his health, although over time you'd have to think they would try him at 3B (like Johnny Bench) or 1B/DH to preserve his knees. No doubt there will be a full-court press from the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox. But I still think of him like Ripken and Gwynn, one of those franchise players that will end up playing for the Twins his entire career. A lot of Twins' fans don't believe they'll be able to keep him, they've witness the penurious ways of the Pohlad family for too long there, but with the son in charge and all the excitement and momentum of a new stadium, I think the odds are 75-85% that they end up keeping him and breaking open the bank to do so.

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/ticketing/season.jsp The RF porch has a pretty short fence by the looks of it...probably 8' or 9' I would guess.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 09:29 AM) If that was the Sox rotation you would be calling for 65 wins. Its not good. They also have Swarzak, Manship and their prize possession who will move fast in Kyle Gibson, who's predicted to be their #1 starter in 2012 or 2013. The Twins were active acquiring talent all summer. With the 22nd overall pick in June, they drafted Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson, a projected top-10 pick choice who was available because he had a stress reaction in his right forearm. Gibson signed at the Aug. 17 deadline for $1.85 million, marking the first time Minnesota took a premier talent who slid and paid him a seven-figure, above-slot bonus. In another first, the Twins paid the highest bonus on the international market in 2009 and the highest for an international player in franchise history when infielder Miguel Sano signed in September for $3.15 million. Minnesota had kicked off the international period by signing German outfielder Max Kepler for $800,000, the largest bonus ever given to a European position player. from baseballamerica.com The Twins are going into an all-new stadium, they're not messing around.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 10:17 AM) Now do the pitching... And I want to hear plenty of obscure names. It doesn't matter if Hudson, Hynick, Torres, Nunez, Santeliz, Williams, Threets and Santos was our bullpen and our top four starters all had ERA's below 4.00, with an offense in the bottom quartile, we won't make the playoffs.