caulfield12

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 13, 2009 -> 01:08 PM) Yes. That Cardinal team was at one point 16 games above .500. Were the 2009 White Sox ever 16 games above .500? Not even close. That's why you can't compare the two teams. They only finished with just 83 wins because they went on an uncharacteristic slide and lost 8 of 9 during the last two weeks of the season. Pretty much every day from May to early September they were between 10 and 16 games above .500. In retrospect I think they resemble an 87-89 game winner way more than they resemble an 83 game winner. We've oscillated back and forth between 7 games under .500 (White Flag surrender) and 5 games over .500, but this team is way underperforming now, based on the offensive potential and starting rotation potential. Of course, we're missing Peavy and we don't know exactly what kind of boost he'll give in the end. DET, you just wonder how long Leyland can keep riding Jackson, Verlander and Porcello for 120+ pitches...and their offense is worse than ours. But Verlander and Jackson have been very consistent aces all season long, with Jackson being the acquisition of the offseason in our division. We've just never been able to sync up our starting pitching, offense, defense and relief pitching, which was our strength the first three months. Our average with RISP is probably the exact opposite of the Twins last year...there's no "guarantee" we would have won yesterday if we'd gone up 1 or 2-0, but you have to think we should be 1 1/2 games back instead of 2 1/2 games back...but so many of these games like the Tigers series, Ray series, Cubs game with 5-1 lead, Pirates game, you will drive yourself crazy saying we SHOULD be 5-7-9-11 gameso over .500 right now. And bunting? Forget about it, Ozzie. You can't change the fundamental all-or-nothing nature of this team, even with Beckham/Getz/Nix/Ramirez/Rios/Kotsay injecting some needed athleticism. We're nothing but an "average" team that looks like 2003, but something's amiss with the chemistry (see 2002-2004), we have one of the worst defenses in the entire American League (and all of baseball) and hopefully that can be rectified at least a little bit with the Rios acquisition and in the offseason. We haven't been a dominant home team like 2008, and we haven't been a come-from-behind team, either. What we have been is an enormous tease that has driven some of us almost off the ledge, and, if not for 2005, I would be pretty pissed off right now but I've just come to the conclusion that competing all season long with the young players coming into the line-up is "gravy" and if we can somehow sneak out of September with the division title, we can be much more dangerous than last year's "wounded" team surviving down the stretch. If I was a Twins' fans, I would be MUCH more discouraged about this season and the future in the new ballpark, as well as the pressing issues of retaining Nathan, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel long-term.

The problem is that he's PROBABLY in that 87-90/91 MPH zone right now...iffy. But that's still better than Torres and arguably better than Contreras...although Jose could much more easily get on a roll and throw three shutouts down the stretch (more likely than Garcia, who would certainly give up 3-5 runs per start), of that there's no doubt.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Aug 12, 2009 -> 02:55 PM) The only inputs into this formula are OBP and SLG. But there's a lot more than that to how a lineup meshes. For one thing, this system completely misses speed, which is why it has Jim Thome -- our best combined OBP/SLG guy -- in the #2 hole. What I don't get is how it also has Ramirez, who's near lowest on the team in OPS or runs created per game, as a #3 hitter. The other thing to note about this? There are 30 "best lineups" listed, with multiple orders. The difference between the top and the bottom is 0.007 of a run per game. Over a season, this would make the difference of 1.134 runs! But, of course, the players OBPs and SLG numbers vary much more radically from game to game, and you don't know by how much until after the game is played. My conclusion? Don't worry so much about batting order. Worry much more about putting the right 9 guys on the field. I'll agree to that, I just thought it was interesting and a bit counterintuitive, to create some discussion. It's hard for anyone to be arguing that Beckham isn't the best, and most balanced hitter, and therefore deserves to bat 1-2-3. No arguments from anyone there. Where it gets interesting is who bats 2nd (Getz/Rios/Beckham/Ramirez) and the two "speed" guys you stick at the bottom of the line-up. Nix is also interesting too...the guy has been like Gordon Beckham when playing against RH'ers. But do you give the likes of Nix or Getz more AB's than Alex Rios, your new $60 million dollar man? I don't think so. Going forward, can Pods keep up those same numbers? How good will Quentin actually be the remainder of the year....and how bad will JD actually be? This is a good schedule to really test the mettle of our our players, the VETERANS (Pods, Thome, AJ, Paulie, JD) as they wear down (like Alexei did last year) and the youngsters like Beckham, Getz, Nix, etc.

QUOTE (The Baconator @ Aug 12, 2009 -> 11:12 AM) Wow, this info kind of throws a wrench in many people's predictions for the lineups... Raines' thread about Getz as leadoff does not sit well according to this analysis. But then again, neither does Rios at leadoff which many have mused. Then again, the projected runs scored for the worst lineup is 5.159 runs per game while our lineups this season have averaged only 4.640 With Pods for the full season, a 875-925 OPS Carlos Quentin (he's still below 800, but barely now), Ramirez hitting like he did in 2008 and Beckham for a full season, not to mention Alex Rios playing up to his potential...this line-up could be absolutely devastating to the ALCD. Even Nix has been VERY VERY potent in spot duty, with a SLG PCTG of almost 450. Yes, Getz should be hitting 9th (he's our worst hitter of the 9) and Rios 8th.

I want to know why anyone who has watched Beckham play SS in BIRM or for UGA on an everyday basis thinks he'd be better than Alexei or at least a major league "average" SS defensively?

QUOTE (DanksFan @ Aug 12, 2009 -> 11:25 AM) Beckham Ramirez Quentin Thome Konerko Pierzynski Dye Rios Getz I have too much respect for what JD has accomplished over the last five seasons with the White Sox to demote him to the 7th spot just yet.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Aug 12, 2009 -> 11:03 AM) Chris Getz has a line of .296 .359 in 22 games since the ASB. In July and August he has started to show a better ability to avoid the strikeout and get on base. When Rios is in the lineup, he should be in CF and I think we should give Getz a shot to hit leadoff. This would be my lineup. 1. Getz 2B 2. Beckham 3B 3. Quentin LF 4. Thome DH 5. Konerko 1B 6. Dye RF 7. AJP C 8. Rios CF 9. Alexei SS Speed and power to turn the lineup over, everyone but Getz is a HR threat. SB threats at 1, 2, 8, 9. I think Beckham+Q works out pitchers alot more than when Dye is in the 3-hole. Completely disagree (see the thread I just started)....Pods/Rio/Getz belong at the bottom of the order. Why would we want Alexei Ramirez to get the least number of at-bats of any player in the line-up? And you still have an incredibly slow, plodding 3-7 in the order, with Quentin's foot not 100%. You have to break up that 3-7 a little bit. But no way should Chris Getz be getting the most at-bats of any player on the team. He's not Vince Coleman from the 85-87 Cardinals either...and it's not like he's going to give you more than 30-40 stolen bases in a full season if he was leading off every game. He's a rookie, he's had a hot streak (you noted the best 22 game stretch), but how likely is that to continue in his rookie season as the dog days of summer stretch across the horizon....do we really believe Chris Getz is a legit .350-.360 OBP guy on a regular, consistent, season-long basis? Really?

I do find it interesting that Beckham is almost always hitting #1 in these simulations. It makes sense, you want your best hitter getting the most AB's, or no lower than #3 in the order. Getz and Pods, on very good teams, belong at the bottom of the order...and Rios belongs at #8 this year, that's pretty stout to have an 8th place hitter projecting for 90+ RBI's, a little like the 2000 offense if all the guns are blazing at once.

Feel free to merge with the White Sox 2010 line-up thread, sorry, didn't see that one...

http://fantasyscope.wordpress.com/2007/08/...-batting-order/ http://fantasyscope.wordpress.com/2008/01/...ermetric-style/ http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...554&Model=0 Best possible line-up with CQ and Rios on field at same time http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...554&Model=0 With Pods and Nix instead of Rios and Getz (of course, we know it's very dubious to extrapolate Nix's numbers over a full season if he played against all RHP)

Maybe KW meant out on the field....during drills/batting practice, shagging fly balls...I would guess that picture was taken in the clubhouse.

The announcers also said he spent at least 30 minutes with all the White Sox players and coaches before the first game of the series and caught up with everyone...

I'm paraphrasing from a conversation the M's announcers had with Griffey and their discussion of it during the game... Griffey: "I had the best experience playing baseball with the White Sox for two months, better than my last 8 or 9 years by far. The only thing that tops it is coming back to finish my career in Seattle again, coming full circle. The White Sox have a great clubhouse, they're very passionate over there and I love(d) playing for Ozzie Guillen. Ozzie and the front office really care about everyone in that clubhouse. Ozzie's basically a "short Lou Piniella," those are the two best managers I've ever played for..." About the trade last year: "Kenny Williams said there would be three conditions that I had to abide by. One, I couldn't wear my hat backwards or to the side. Two, no earrings. Three, I had to stand at attention for the national anthem." On the three nicest players he's played with: 1) Thome 2) Mike Sweeney 3) Shawn/Sean/Shaun something....I couldn't quite catch it, perhaps Lowe or Kell(e)y (sp) from the M's pen this year?

I think the signings of Hermanson, El Duque (yes, just for that ONE inning saving Marte alone) and Tadahito Iguchi have to go up there, too. Especially because KW never had seen Iguchi on anything but Japanese League tape before the acquisition. Alexei Ramirez acquisition (and hopefully Viciedo, too). If we make the playoffs this year, bringing back Pods. Marte for Guerrier (although Guerrier's recovered with MIN, he did nothing for PITT) Vazquez for Chris Young (now looks much better, if Flowers/Rodriguez/Gilmore/Lillibridge ever amount to anything) Playing "chicken" with Orlando Cabrera and lucking out when he turned down a chance to return at around $10 million (which would now be blocking Getz/Beckham/Nix) The Jayson Nix pick-up was one of the niftier ones of recent years in terms of waiver moves...trading for Castro has also worked out quite well this year, compared to what we were getting out of Corky after his "hot" streak hitting-wise the first month. David Wells for Sirotka Signing Buehrle and Dye to extensions instead of moving them... Not making the proposed Garland trades with the Astros or Angels (Erstad)...not trading Jose Contreras (in terms of helping the team the first half of 2008, although arguably that has been one of his worst moves in recent years, giving him an extra year or two on his long-term deal, but the extension was more like a "thank you" for 2005/2006) Konerko/Cameron was NOT a KW move

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Aug 9, 2009 -> 06:57 PM) Assuming the lineup remains mostly the same, our probable 1-2 is Getz-Beckham. Getz can leadoff at .340 to .360 OBP. But not lower than 330. Beckham is fine at either 2 or 3...either one.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 9, 2009 -> 06:52 PM) That's not how it works. The signing team loses 1 draft pick. The team that lost the type A player gets that draft pick, and also gets a sandwich pick in-between the first and 2nd rounds. I guess what I meant to say is we're losing all these players, NOT getting any draft picks for them (Dotel/Contreras/Thome and probably Dye, too) and then we're having to give up or surrender draft picks to sign Figgins. So it feels like we are really "losing" two picks. And we really lucked out with the Cabrera and KW "chicken" confrontation on the Dan Ryan, Dick Allen's personal crusade/issue this past offseason. That's why the Alexei Rios deal makes much more sense than overpaying in years, overall dollars and then the draft pick for an aging Figgins..all contribute to making it prohibitively expensive.

I would guess the odds are about 85/15 against offering Dotel arbitration, so we won't get any picks there. Contreras and Thome will definitely not be offered arbitration...and JD's situation is the biggest question mark for 2010. Figgins will undoubtedly be a Type A FA, correct? So that would mean two lost draft picks...depending on the team that signed him, other FA losses for the Angels (Vladdy, Abreu, etc.), the cost alone for the contract is a huge risk, then figuring in the loss of a couple of higher draft picks, it's just not worth it. If it was Chone Figgins at 26-27 years old and coming into the prime of his career (like Rios), you pull the trigger. In this case...no.

Stick Figure salutes you...

We can't ADD Rios' contract AND get into a bidding war in the vicinity of 3 years and $24-30 million for Figgins. That's just way too expensive, Figgins will decline soon, speed players in their 30's always do...and he's possibly playing at a higher level this season as this will be his last opportunity at a pretty big, extended year contract. Sure, we can offer him 1-2 years, but it would be pretty silly to be locked into Figgins at 3B or CF when we have Viciedo, Danks and Mitchell all in the pipeline. A great piece to have and KW has coveted him for five years seemingly, but not at ANY price or not in a bidding war situation with 10-12 other MLB clubs. It's not like 3-4 "elite" leadoff men will be on the FA market this offseason, either.

The thing is, do we really believe someone like Hudson has the ability/talent to go on a Brandon McCarthy-esque 2005 roll down the stretch? REALLY? I mean, Brandon was pretty much our best pitching prospect, and, if not, 1A...but I would think he was more highly coveted than even Hudson...we were trying to package him for Soriano if the memory serves me correctly. Contreras is inconsistent, sure, but do the likes of Carlos Torres, Whisler, Egbert, Ely, Harrell, etc., have the ability to pitch the way Brandon did down the stretch (along with the Count) in 2005? You have to think Colon is done again, and that Ozzie will go down with his veterans before he turns that role over to someone like Torres, who's far from a spring chicken himself at age 26.

Why would the Tigers want to go after Rios when they're already on the hook for the salaries (this season) of Sheffield, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle D-Train Willis, Ordonez (he will definitely not qualify for his option year), Bonderman, Carlos Guillen, etc.??? They are going to have to spend a pretty penny to keep Edwin Jackson around next season, that's for sure. He will undoubtedly get a huge boost in salary, and Inge and Granderson are starting to make some bank as well. With Clete Thomas (actually his stats aren't incredibly different from Beckham's, overall, but he is a corner outfielder, not an infielder) and Ryan Raburn (and they already traded away Joyce and brought in Josh Anderson as well), there's not really a compelling need to break the bank on Rios, although the money (for 2010) could theoretically be shifted from Magglio to Alex Rios. I do think, however, that Dombrowski has to be very careful with his spending this offseason...you gotta give DET fans credit, coming off a terribly disappointing 2008 season, they've supported their "average" team to the tune of 31000+ fans per game this season. All this despite the economic calamity poster-child syndrome that is DET, CLE and PITT. Heck, look specifically at those last two teams being completely blown apart...as well as the Jays and potentially Padres to a lesser extent.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_leagu...?urn=mlb,181651 Would KW dare go after Josh Hamilton??? It's the kind of medium-risk, high-reward move he loves (I say medium risk because we'd STILL have to give up something very decent like Hudson or Flowers in return to get Josh Hamilton, IMO) I would be surprised he takes on that amount of long-term risk (if Alex Rios doesn't perform again at 800 OPS levels) versus taking a much smaller contract risk on someone like Rick Ankiel...on a two year contract.

The only team to top the Rangers during this era? The Chicago White Sox, who won the team homer title in 2004 and again in 2006 on the strength of Paul Konerko(notes) (41 homers) in 2004 and Jermaine Dye(notes) and Jim Thome(notes) (both with 44) in 2006. Fittingly, in that in-between year of 2005 when they didn’t win the home run title, the White Sox won the World Series. Last year it was the White Sox who ended the ignominious drought of home run title teams, making the playoffs after bashing a league-leading 235 home runs. Then, of course, they lost in the first round to the Tampa Bay Rays. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=ApFr...o&type=lgns

Wonder if they will convert Jayson Nix to catcher now? LOL. Not sure if this should be TEAL or not, but they've stuck him almost everywhere else on the diamond besides 1B and C...by the way, did anyone see where Nix's predecessor in the versatility department (Pablo Ozuna) just got released by the Phillies' organization from their AAA team (Lehigh Valley)??

If we offered Dye arbitration, why WOULDN'T he accept it? There's no way we could possibly cut this year's contract by 20%, and that would STILL give you $9.2 million BEST CASE SCENARIO, for one year of JD as basically your DH...based on his defensive play the past season. Let's say we offered $11 million and he countered for $12.5 million, certainly, based on the "most RBI's and HR's of any MLB RF" over recent periods productivity stat (maybe he's Top 3-5 for all AL OFers in production OFFENSIVELY for that time period), he will CLEARLY be awarded $12.5 to $13 million if the White Sox tried to "low-ball" him, which doesn't seem to be their style with a player as well-respected in the clubhouse and FO as JD has been for five seasons. Is there any team that going to offer 2 years for $18 million or 3 years for $24-27 million on JD??? I highly doubt that will happen. I think it's a tough choice to keep Thome for one more year (as DH) over Dye, but the odds are higher we can pay Jim Thome $5-6 million (he's overpaid this year, for sure) rather than getting away with paying JD the same amount.