caulfield12

Indians were celebrating on the field like they won the WS after trading V-Mart, DeRosa, Cliff Lee, Francisco and Garko tonight. They really needed that win after blowing the 5-3 lead on the Guillen homer. Minnesota continues to really miss Neshek. He was the glue of that pen, and nobody they've tried in the 7th or 8th (Bonser, Bass, Ayala, Crain, Guerrier, Keppel, Mulvey, Balfour, Rincon, Humber) had/has had any success on a consistent basis getting the game to Nathan over the last two seasons.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 1, 2009 -> 02:28 AM) If you are talking top 4, I'd have to say the White Sox. But right now Peavy is hurt so they can't truly be in that discussion and we know I feel this way because I absolutely love Gavin Floyd too. I put the Sox at the top because I don't buy Joba as a starter (can't go deep into games yet) and Pettite isn't as good as he used to be. Boston has a great 1-2 but Wakefield is on the DL, Bucholtz is unproven and Penny/DiceK/Smoltz haven't looked good. Really love the ANgels, they right now are my 1. No true ace but Lackey/Saunders/Weaver/Santana is pretty damn good when healthy. Drays have a shot to be the best but Kazmir hasn't been that great, Price hasn't yet made the strides everyone expects him to make one day. I love Matt Garza though. I would have agreed over the last couple of seasons....maybe the Rays or Angels. But look at Santana's ERA. He's Contreras April/May bad at this point. Saunders was almost as good as Cliff Lee last year, and a tick above Danks. Lackey is at 4.00, a bit higher than usual for him....maybe wear and tear on his arm over time? Weaver always shut down the Sox, so maybe he seems a bit better because of his dominance personally against us. Buchholz obviously has the raw stuff and has had some pretty decent results before falling off the map last year...one of Buchholz on the trade market was probably equal to Richard/Poreda/Carter combined. They were lucky to only have to part with Masterson in their trading frenzy. But pitching prospects are tricky...look at Homer Bailey, the Yankees' young starters, Price hasn't exactly lit the world on fire as easily as predicted.

QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Aug 1, 2009 -> 03:21 AM) That obviously has not been the case with the rosters and manager that Kenny has been very largely responsible for. Other GM's might just be bulls***ting because they know the Sox are always looking to trade and its a valuable line of communication to keep open if they're trying to move someone. But then again, that's equally valuable for the Sox either way. If a team has a player on the block more often than not they're expecting Kenny to at least give them a call. Were the only ones without a Red Sox/Yankees payroll that can create so much roster flexibility. Well, I'm thinking that it would be reasonable to assume that Carter was switched for Hudson (from the time of the first trade)...there was no reason to ALSO include Broadway and/or Hudson, because, as DeLuca wrote, the Padres were just trying to "save face" and get another team to take his entire contract off their hands....of course, Broadway was gone, but maybe the first trade was including Broadway and Hudson instead of Russell and Carter?? Just speculation. Richard might become even a #3 starter in the the NL, and he's very affordable for them, so it's a good fit. Don't see Poreda making it. Russell was finished with the Sox, maybe people are upset because he was a Top 5-6 prospect in our system when it was so weak...and Carter, well, remember what has happened with Gio, Faustino DeLosSantos and even the likes of Lumsden and Cortes, who was ranked a top 50-60 prospect in ALL of MLB not so long ago.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 1, 2009 -> 02:05 AM) Tyler Flowers and Sergio Rodriguez are far from table scraps. Dayan Vicideo (Swisher's money) is also far from a table scrap. The Sox traded 1 top 50 prospect for a 27 year old ace (widely considered one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball). I'd say that from a personell stand-point you are talking about a potential steal. I think Richard turns into a solid starter for a long-time, RUssell is a 6th inning reliever, Poreda turns into a set-up guy, and Carter is an X-factor but I don't see him as being a front of the rotation starter (and he's still in A ball). So basically if every guy hits his peak I'm still freaking a-ok with this move. This is of course assuming Peavy's arm doesn't fall off. Santos Rodriguez of the 1.80 ERA in Bristol and nice K/IP ratio?

Until Peavy blows out his elbow, misses 18 months and we all say it was the worst trade of his tenure, lol....when the Sox couldn't find a fifth starter down the stretch in a very winnable division and Peavy is unable to come back. Let's hope we never have to read a thread about that eventuality.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Aug 1, 2009 -> 12:46 AM) Remember when like 2 years ago our farm system was absolute s*** and one of the bottom 10 in MLB? And today we have enough players that we can put together a decent package for one of the better pitchers in MLB, and STILL have decent talent in the system - Danks, Viciedo, Flowers, Hudson, and then there's Beckham who is pretty much in the same age/experience category. Not to mention Mitchell, T. Thompson...what's the latest with Morgado and Goodwin? Haven't been following prospects forum as much since BIRM's roster was decimated.

Why would we trade our best young starting pitcher for a LH bat when we can cheaply acquire it on the FA market without giving up anything? And Hudson alone wouldn't get us Carl Crawford b4 he's a FA, either.

As to our OF, they'll have to bring in at least one player OR move Alexei out there. They still probably need a corner, although Kotsay might impress and be asked to stick around as the 4th OFer. Gartrell might get a look too. Doubt they are including Restovich, Cook or any of the AAA guys in their thinking. Shelby, Danks and Mitchell are looking more at 2011 arrivals, or late 2010.

Would KW dare to give Contreras a one year, incentive-laden contract for $3-5 million plus incentives to be the 5th starter (and keep him around Viciedo and Ramirez)? Are Torres or Hudson ready? Should they bring in a Jon Garland/D. Davis/Paul Byrd type for one year, like they tried with Colon this season as a low-risk roll of the dice.

how could the stupid Indians blow that game? Jesus Wood.

How did Konerko cost us a run? Not tagging on Damon's catch?

Quentin robbed twice in one week... Kotsay crushed a ball to end a game. Tough luck...leaving those runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs is guaranteed to come back and bite us. Jesus...another tough luck out for Kotsay, thought it was gone for sure.

Kerry Wood just blew away Granderson was a 95 mph letter high FB to end a threat, Wood will have at least a one run lead to get the save...Indians with a chance to add some insurance runs. 4-3 Indians holding on for now. 5-4 Twins over the Angels in the 8th. Napoli homers off Guerrier, 5-5 now, nice comeback by the Angels.

"Literally, with two minutes left, I'm on the phone with Axelrod and I'm on the phone with Kevin Towers, and [assistant general manager] Rick Hahn is on the phone with Major League Baseball because it has to be in," said Williams with an exasperated laugh. "I really didn't think it all was going to come together in the end. I was prepared for it to not meet the deadline. It all came together with 23 seconds on the clock." In November 2008, the Padres were working with the Braves on a Peavy trade, in which Peavy would be traded to Atlanta for SS Yunel Escobar, OF Gorkys Hernandez, P Blaine Boyer and one of P Charlie Morton or P Jo-Jo Reyes. [10]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/p...-real-this-time To read the write-up here of Dexter Carter, you'd think he was the second coming of Dwight Gooden.

Another possibility: Tigers with Verlander/E. Jackson/Washburn/Porcello/Galarraga (backed up by Miner/Bonderman/Willis/Robertson) But I was thinking more of 2010+ than just this year... Think this writer wants to bury his column now?? We’ll start with Jackson - odds are that Dombrowski sees him as a young, high upside hurler who just had a breakthrough season and established himself as an innings eater at worst with potential to become a mid-rotation starter. After all, he threw 180 innings, posted a 4.42 ERA, just turned 25 years old, throws hard, and was considered a top prospect not too long ago. However, Jackson didn’t have any kind of breakout year - he’s the same pitcher he’s always been. His FIP in 2007 was 4.90. His FIP in 2008 was 4.88. He cut his BB% down by over a full walk per game, but his strikeout rate fell from 7.16 to 5.30, canceling out the effect of the better command. The huge drop in ERA was thanks to the significantly improved defense the Rays put behind him (.351 BABIP in ‘07, .301 in ‘08) and some good luck stranding runners. The Rays defense isn’t going with him to Detroit, and the luck probably won’t either. Jackson’s not useless - Marcel thinks he’ll put up a 4.64 FIP over 160 innings next year, so that makes him about +5 runs worse than an average pitcher and +15 runs better than a replacement level version. As a #5 starter, he’s not a problem, but that’s all he is. To get Jackson, the Tigers parted with Matt Joyce, one of the few promising young players they had left in the organization. I generally don’t go for one for one comparisons that often, but in this case, the Jayson Werth comp works so well that I feel obligated to put it out there. Joyce is, essentially, a left-handed Werth - a guy who can play very good defense in a corner OF spot, has gap power and will walk occasionally, but whose lower contact rate will always keep his average down. Depending on how well he adjusts to being a full time player, the Rays should expect something between .260/.320/.430 and .270/.340/.470. That makes Joyce something like a +2 win outfielder right now, and if he hits the high side of that projection, it’s more like +2.5 to +3 wins. Joyce is a better player, right now, than Jackson. He’s also under team control for two extra years and isn’t arb. eligible after the 2009 season as Jackson will be. For the Rays, this is a huge win - they solve their right field issue with a quality, low cost player that easily gives them the game’s best defensive outfield. A Crawford/Upton/Joyce trio is going to be staggeringly good at chasing down balls in the gap. To boot, they open up a spot in the rotation for David Price, so they’re almost certainly going to be upgrading their rotation simultaneously. The Rays get a lot better, while the Tigers shuffle pieces around and cost themselves some flexibility. Thumps up for Tampa, and a big thumbs down for Detroit.

Nix in too much of a hurry to make the DP with Posada running and took his eyes of the ball. Interestingly, Pena was a starter for the D-Backs until 2006. Wonder if they would consider giving him a shot at starting again with the Sox in ST next year? A lot depends on what happens with Jenks, Linebrink and Dotel the remainder of the season.

Yet, there are reasons to temper one's excitement over Peavy's move to the second city. In addition coming from the weaker league, Peavy has spent most of his career pitching his home games in Petco Park, one of the most extreme pitchers parks in recent history and the most extreme pitchers park in the game today. Peavy's road ERA over his entire career is 3.84, a full run higher than his home mark. Pitching in the NL West, the hitters parks he's pitched in most have been Arizona's Chase Field and Colorado's Coors Field. In the latter, he has posted a 4.59 ERA. In the former, he's 5-7 with a 5.77 ERA. Peavy has never pitched in U.S. Cellular. In fact, he's never faced the White Sox outside of spring training, but there are reasons to be concerned about how he'll fair in the White Sox's run-happy ballpark. One might also be concerned about the fact that Peavy was 18-18 with a 4.25 ERA before the Padres moved into Petco, and is 74-50 with a 3.02 ERA across five-plus seasons since, but that's not entirely fair. Peavy was just 22 when the Padres moved into Petco, so that first set of numbers comes from his age-21 and -22 seasons, and he did show improvement in the latter. Also, Qualcomm Stadium was also a very favorable ballpark for pitchers, and Peavy went 7-4 with a 3.23 ERA in 21 career starts there over his first two major league seasons. Still, that does point to the fact that Peavy has always pitched his home games in an extreme pitchers park, giving him frequent respite from the travails of the road. Another item of concern is the quality of the White Sox's defense. Peavy is a strikeout pitcher (prior to his injury, he was striking out 10.1 men per nine innings this season), so he's less reliant on his fielders than the average hurler, but he has nonetheless benefitted from the Padres above-average ability to turn balls in play into outs behind him. When he won the Cy Young, his opponents' batting average on balls in play was .276. Last year, it was .284. In those two seasons he posted a combined ERA of 2.68. This year and in 2006, his BABIP was closer to league average (a pinch over .300) and his combined ERA from those two seasons has been 4.06. Some of that is team defense and some of it is luck, but when the luck runs out he's been just a tick better than average, and the White Sox aren't going to help him much in the field. The league change itself is a tertiary concern at worst. Peavy has acquitted himself well in interleague play over the years (3.29 ERA, 3.42 K/BB), and now that the Indians have flipped Victor Martinez and Ryan Garko, the best offense in his new division has been defanged. Still, many of his interleague starts came at Petco with the pitcher in the opposing lineup. The one advantage Peavy would seem to gain in joining the White Sox is a significant increase in run support. The White Sox's attack has been sputtering this season, but the emergence of Gordon Beckham and Carlos Quentin's return to health should help there. Besides, with Peavy now in his pocket, Williams can spend the offseason trying to fill center field and otherwise improve on the other side of the ball. Peavy will give some of those runs back for the reasons outlined above, but he'll no doubt benefit from escaping the team that has been dead last in the majors in runs scored per game over the past two seasons. So Peavy isn't a pennant-race fix, and he isn't likely to be the dominant pitcher he was for the Padres, but he's still a 28-year-old with a Cy Young and a sick strikeout rate who should anchor the White Sox rotation beside the 30-year-old Buehrle for the next few years. So what did the White Sox give up to get him? Clayton Richard is a 25-year-old sinkerballing lefty who was holding down a spot in the rotation with Bartolo Colon back on the disabled list yet again. Richard is exactly the sort of middling-yet-established youngster designed to be dealt in deals like this one. Organizationally, he's not a loss, though he does leave a vacated rotation spot in the middle of a pennant race (D.J. Carrasco was the White Sox's starter against the Yankees on Friday night). Adam Russell is a tall, 26-year-old righty with a low-three-quarters delivery who has pitched well in Triple-A since being converted to relief last year, but struggled in the major league pen last year and hasn't been back. Dexter Carter is a hard-throwing righty starter drafted out of Old Dominion in the middle-rounds last year. He has pitched well in his full-season debut this year, but his lack of a promotion seems telling for a 22-year-old in the Sally League. Those three pitchers were all expendable. Which brings us to Aaron Poreda. A 22-year-old, 6-foot-6 lefty who throws in the upper 90s with movement and has already had a brief tast of the majors in the White Sox's bullpen, he was the Sox's top pitching prospect and second-best overall farmhand behind Beckham. Though his secondary pitches are well behind his fastball, he could thrive as a starter in Petco Park and, failing that, would make one heck of a closer. He's a top prospect on the cusp of the major leagues, ready to join the Padres rotation in April if not before. San Diego thus gets all of Poreda's team-controlled years without having to wait out his further development in the minors. It is Poreda's performance that will ultimately determine the success of this deal for either team. Though Poreda seems unlikely to out-perform Peavy even in the best-case scenario for the Padres, he could come close at a small fraction of the cost. Given that the White Sox are trying to win now and the Padres are trying to rebuild, the trade makes sense for both teams, but it's what they do this winter and beyond to build around Peavy and Poreda that will ultimately determine the success of this deal. Hmmm....seems like a writer going off the BA, BP and message boards more than his own eyes. cnnsi.com (corcoran)

QUOTE (winninguglyin83 @ Jul 31, 2009 -> 07:55 PM) What I don't like is that Kenny consistently overpays in these trades. We traded Swisher and Vaz and got table scraps. maddening to me. Yeah, Flowers and Viciedo (signed with Swisher's money being freed) are "table scraps." Sure, sure. Not to mention that we could still get contributions from Lillibridge, Nunez, Betemit and Gilmore and ESPECIALLY Santos Rodriguez (95-97 MPH from the LH side) down the line. You can't judge most trades for 3-5 years. Of course, if Peavy goes down with an arm/shoulder injury and misses most of the next three seasons, it will go down as a huge hit because our payroll flexibility is really challenged having Peavy and Buehrle together in the rotation....but still spending less on starters than 05/06/07, when we had Vazquez, Garcia, Garland, Contreras, etc. $55 million dollars just for the rotation in one of those years.

Who knows what the White Sox are actually getting in Jake Peavy? It's not clear when he'll be able to pitch or how long it will take for him to be ready to pitch in the majors again, and it's possible or even likely that this trade was more about 2010 and beyond than it was about 2009 because of the minor hole that the deal has created in Chicago's current rotation. Peavy was a top-tier pitcher in the National League but probably will see his stats take a hit when he takes the mound in the tougher league and in a hitters' ballpark, but a John Danks-Mark Buehrle-Peavy-Gavin Floyd rotation not only will be among the league's best but also will soak up 700-800 innings per season, so inferior middle relievers will pitch fewer innings. I worry about Peavy's long-term durability; after his great 2007 season, he had elbow trouble in 2008, and his arm action is not easy. Keith Law, ESPN White Sox general manager Ken Williams was not discouraged by the initial rejection from Peavy. "He never said no, he just said 'not yet,' " Williams said. "So those words 'not yet' for me meant just that. ... If you are patient in your pursuit, then sometimes you can ultimately get what you want," he said. "When we called back this time, he was better prepared -- he and his family were better prepared for what lies ahead. We were all able to make it work." The 28-year-old Peavy is 6-6 with a 3.97 ERA in 13 starts with the Padres this season but has been on the disabled list since June 13 with a strained tendon in his right ankle. Williams said the White Sox don't expect Peavy to pitch until the end of August and he could go on a rehab assignment in the middle of the month. "We're going to still be conservative with our approach. In our division this thing is going to go down to winning games in September," Williams said. "We want to be as strong as we possibly can in September. That's what we're focused on."

GQCQ...if he's back, watch out ALCD. Twins strike back against Angels, now leading 3-2 and batting in the home fourth.

Where was that Konerko defense against the Twins? Oh, well...DJ gave them a run with his lack of hustle, Konerko took it back. Would be great if we could get 5 innings out of Carrasco...he's really righted the ship and that'll preserve the pen a bit for the rest of the series.

Right now, if it was the playoffs and you had only two choices, I would want Gavin Floyd over Danks. But that's just me.

Buehrle/Peavy (when he's healthy, co #1's), Floyd, Danks (one of the best "4th" starters in baseball), CONTRERAS (OOPS) and now Torres/Carrasco/Garcia/Colon/TBA. Yankees=Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Chamberlain, Petitte, Mitre (Wang/Kennedy/Hughes) Red Sox=Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Buchholz, Penny, (Dice K/Smoltz) Angels=Lackey, Weaver, Saunders, E. Santana, Palmer (Escobar/Loux/Moseley)...would have given them the advantage before this season. Rays=Shields, Kazmir, Garza, Price, Niemann, Sonnanstine Definitely, we have the best starting rotation outside of the AL East, there's no arguing that much. 2nd, do we make a move for Doug Davis or Paul Byrd to get possibly only 3 starts out of them (if Peavy's really coming back in August) or just gut it out with what we have...?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 31, 2009 -> 05:16 PM) I don't know about that yet. Obviously, if Peavy returns to form, this is an absolute steal personnel-wise, but who knows when that will be. He has always wanted an ace, that's what he goes for. Wells, Colon, Garcia, Peavy twice. Those are just the ones he got done. He's probably asked about every ace in baseball. Let me introduce you to El Gran Titan de Bronze, the "ace" in all of baseball for 4 months over 05/06. On the other hand, he really learned from giving up a "future ace" in Kip Wells for what he thought was a 3 starter in Todd Ritchie. He was also interested in AJ Burnett at one point, if I remember correctly.