caulfield12

The Royals aren't close to giving up on Gordon yet...not by a longshot. Next, I really thought yesterday was a season-changer, but we say that nearly everyday. Our 1 GB morphed quickly to 3 GB in 30 minutes. Seattle made TWO very uncustomary errors (by the SS and then allowing a runner to score from 3B when the runner was picked off at first for the second insurance run...) But looks like (KNOCK ON WOOD) the M's might be able to hold them off today. Kudos to Tigers' fans, I think they have a sellout against the M's tonight again. Lowe and White were very very good against us...but Lowe got rocked...that young rookie catcher hit a bomb (Avila) that sparked things, but the errors killed them. I guess we came back once against Aardsma, so we're even with the Tigers in that category. When you consider that the Tigers are 39-19 at home, it's pretty amazing we're still within hailing distance...and with how well Jackson, Verlander and Porcello have pitched this year. Key inning now, bottom of the 8th...the inning everything fell apart for Sox/M's fans yesterday, 4 runs scored.

Royce had ZERO range by the time he played with us and never dove for the ball...fewer errors are not more than 33% of the picture here. Look at TC comparing Valentin in 2000/2001 compared to what Clayton did during his time in Chicago...not even close.

Valentin >>> Clayton OR Cabrera (2008 version)

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 18, 2009 -> 11:44 AM) The Sox say that they don't mix FA money with minor league money. But KW said 2-3 times that Viciedo's contract was essentially, long-term replacing the sunk costs for Swisher's long-term deal. That's pretty close.

Where would we be right now if KW hadn't scraped Nix and Pods off the scrap heap? If Freddy brings it somehow, that would be three basically 'free' transactions that had a huge impact on this season.

This is like Charles Dickens so far...the Tale of Three Seasons. First season with Owens/Anderson/Lillibridge/Wise/Miller/Fields and multiple pitchers getting PT but a very solid bullpen held things together. -7 games Second seasn when we played really well and got back into the division race with a hot offense and very solid starting pitching...+5 over .500 And now we're basically "treading" water and heading into the most dangerous, elimination stage of the 2009 baseball season. We have 21 really difficult games out of 23, and almost all of them are on the road. If we can somehow go 11-12 or 10-13, we can stay in the division race, unless DET plays equally bad or suffers an injury to Jackson, Porcello or Verlander (although I can't conceive of us passing them before the end of that brutal 23 game stretch). This team has been such a tease, and the comparisons to 2003 are appropriate, although that team got well above .500 (if memory serves me correctly, somewhere in the 12-16 games over vicinity) and played like the best team in the AL, although we did that (too) recently against the Yankees and Angels. We have so many weaknesses and so many strengths on this ballclub...but with the additions of Castro, Pena, Kotsay, Peavy and Rios, we're a significantly better team (on paper) than we were in 2008 and in the first two months of 2009. At the VERY least, the season has become very, very interesting. We have so many players out of position on the infield or learning new positions...a bullpen almost in tatters...one of the worst defenses and fundamentally sound teams in the league, we have virtually no identity besides being the most talented team (now) in the ALCD. Before the last month, you would have had to argue for DET or MIN, but we've surpassed both those clubs IMO. As soon as you count this team out, they surprise. When you think they've turned the corner, they go 5-7 against VERY pedestrian competition when they should be leading the Central (as KW noted). We don't play exceptionally well at home or have many clutch hitters with RISP...are we last in that category, or does it just seem that way? Our execution with runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs...pathetic? The mental lapses of Pods and Ramirez have been noted, and Nix and Beckham have had plenty of struggles (mentally) of their own, ALTHOUGH NOBODY would have imagined either player could/would/should have such a huge impact on the 2009 White Sox season. You just don't ever know with this team....a couple of months ago, DJ and Farmer called 86 and 89 wins to take the division, and it seems like 90 will be an impossible barrier for any team now but the Tigers. I just hope the season does go down to the final week and we continue to have great fan support like the team has enjoyed recently.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 17, 2009 -> 09:26 PM) I'm very confident Thornton was not hurt. Why else would he come out, warm up at the beginning of the 8th...and then be mysteriously pulled before the inning begins? Can you explain that? Obviously, there's no need to even put extra wear and tear on Thornton at this point in the season if you don't want to use him for the 8th...doesn't make any sense, he's CLEARLY the best reliever in the bullpen right now.

Thornton was HURT when he came out to start the 8th.... What else would you have done??? So we really trust our season to Williams over someone we're paying like Linebrink and Dotel...??? This team is in huge trouble anyway with just Thornton in the bullpen....and we might not even have him after tonight.

Buehrle and Danks are pretty decent defenders, especially Mark. Agreed that Rios and Nix (if he's playing 2B full-time and not all over the diamond) are the two best. Konerko is a tick above average, but his level of play has fallen off in recent weeks, offensively as well as defensively. Theoretically, both Ramirez and Quentin might be considered above-average or better by some for SS and LF.

Dotel follows a 96 MPH fastball with the slow stuff to speed up Hairston's bat even more. Pods could have had it, and it certainly would have been an out during a night game, but you never expect HIM to make that play..compared to an above-average MLB OFer. Nix is definitely the goat so far this game...somehow we can never close out "sweep" games. Now we have their closer. Bailey has a killer WHIP. If he pitched for the Yankees or Red Sox, he's ROY.

It's not a horrible play there. Don't want to hit into a DP there. Nix just has to execute, something Crede and Uribe were great at in that situation...we miss both of their clutch bats with a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs. Well, it looks like we just gave up the lead on the span of 3 pitches...maybe Danksie can get out of it, but losing those two runs out there has totally shifted the momentum in this game. I just don't know if we can survive the brutal stretch over the next month...seventeen very tough road games. If we can stay within 3 of DET after that stretch, we'll still have a chance. We have got to go 4-2 or 5-1 heading into this weekend.

Rios will be fine. All of the "depth/playing time" issues are better than the alternative of having to use Owens, Wasserman, Andy Gonzalez, Adam Russell and Josh Fields. AJ quietly having a great season, although the RBI numbers are down a bit even by his normal 55-60 standards.

We've had this discussion many times before. I think we're something like #8-10 in terms of revenues produced in the majors because of our higher average ticket prices (#4-6 in the majors), parking and concessions revenues. Personally, I believe they could generate MORE revenue by dropping prices and making the tickets more affordable, but the White Sox marketing department seems to believe the market is not as elastic and that it's better to set higher prices than to take the risk of lowering prices and generating even more money...but the possibility of losing money too if the team underperforms like in 2007. The Twin are outdrawing us because they are going into a new ballpark and looked, along with the Indians, to have the best ALCD team...but it's 50% about "positioning" for season tickets in the new ballpark for 2010. You have to give credit to DET for eating the contract of Sheffield and being able to draw 31K+ in such a negative economy in that city (they also have bad contracts on the books with Ordonez, Guillen, Robertson, Willis, Bonderman, etc.). The financial problems have REALLY hit hard in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, but DET has seemed to be immune. Of course, they've been a lot like last year's White Sox team, holding into first place with very strong starting pitching and a dominating home record. Texas has a very exciting team and they're in the bottom 5-10 teams for road attendance as well. San Diego, one of the worst and most boring teams, is #6. As mentioned, when we play the Yankees and Red Sox on the road, that will pull up our averages, too. I am a bit surprised by the strength of Atlanta, Houston and Seattle, but the Mariners really dominate the Pacific Northwest and have a beautiful ballpark and improving team...based on the proximity of the White Sox to first place, you'd think they SHOULD be at #14-15, but we were HORRIBLE at home and looked set to fold/White Flag and we'd just increased ticket prices across the board coming off the playoff appearance.

I wouldn't say, overall, tha Uribe and Crede were THAT dissimilar offensively and defensively. Yes, Joe was more clutch in 05/06, but Uribe put up some very nice stats in 2004...they both struck out a ton and didn't walk much. I'll just leave it that Crede was a bit overratd and Juanie was a bit underrated because of his versatility and steadying presence in the clubhouse. He was the most popular teammate of many in the clubhouse, and Buerhle actually offered to cut JR a check for $1 million of his salary to keep him around (if that would help)...would have been nice, seeing how inept Wilson Betemit was this year after he was misused coming out of ST and never found a groove with the Sox. Both were very good in clutch situations that we're missing out on this year, scoring those runners from 3B with less than two outs on SAC flies.

Don't forget the Viciedo rumors, too...the same rap on him. Carl Everett was a pariah to many and become a beloved teammate on the White Sox (albeit information-age challenged).

Gutierrez has been a steal for the M's. When I saw that trade, I was already scratching my head. And now they've already given up on Ben Francisco, basically. Endy Chavez, when he was healthy, was another player who was perfect for Safeco Field. We have to sacrifice some defense for offense playing 81 home games at USCF...but the acquisition of Rios and the continued improvement from the left side of the infield and Getz/Nix should make us at least an "average" team defensively. I wouldn't mind sacrificing Pods and getting a better defensive player (and no, that's not Randy Winn at this stage in his career) OR a leadoff hitter like Figgins who's a much better bet that Pods going forward. Carl Crawford would be too expensive for only one year IMO. I'm not sure how a line-up with Endy Chavez/Franklin Gutierrez in RF/LF and Rios in CF/RF would end up offensively, but Dye definitely needs to be DHing more (if he's retained) and Pods....well...thanks for 2009 but keeping him around is almost like Joe Crede waiting for the other shoe to drop. I would prefer not to pencil in Pods as the leadoff hitter coming into 2010, thank you very much. Not just because of yesterday...but it's the same risk we took heading into this season with Owens/Anderson/Wise, Lillibridge, Betemit, Fields and Corky Miller having key roles. It has taken at least half the season to fix those mistakes and misjudgements by KW. With that said, I think KW has done a wonderful job of keeping us from bottoming out, losing too much attendance/revenue for this season and really putting us in the driver's seat in the ALCD heading into 2010. I think our season ticket retention rate should be pretty high with Rios and Peavy on board, obviously so if we can make the playoffs again and/or acquire one more name like Figgins in the offseason. Of course, you would have said the Twins and Indians were (coming into 2009) where we LOOK to be heading into 2010....in terms of dominant positioning, and look how well that ended up for those two teams...

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 13, 2009 -> 01:08 PM) Yes. That Cardinal team was at one point 16 games above .500. Were the 2009 White Sox ever 16 games above .500? Not even close. That's why you can't compare the two teams. They only finished with just 83 wins because they went on an uncharacteristic slide and lost 8 of 9 during the last two weeks of the season. Pretty much every day from May to early September they were between 10 and 16 games above .500. In retrospect I think they resemble an 87-89 game winner way more than they resemble an 83 game winner. We've oscillated back and forth between 7 games under .500 (White Flag surrender) and 5 games over .500, but this team is way underperforming now, based on the offensive potential and starting rotation potential. Of course, we're missing Peavy and we don't know exactly what kind of boost he'll give in the end. DET, you just wonder how long Leyland can keep riding Jackson, Verlander and Porcello for 120+ pitches...and their offense is worse than ours. But Verlander and Jackson have been very consistent aces all season long, with Jackson being the acquisition of the offseason in our division. We've just never been able to sync up our starting pitching, offense, defense and relief pitching, which was our strength the first three months. Our average with RISP is probably the exact opposite of the Twins last year...there's no "guarantee" we would have won yesterday if we'd gone up 1 or 2-0, but you have to think we should be 1 1/2 games back instead of 2 1/2 games back...but so many of these games like the Tigers series, Ray series, Cubs game with 5-1 lead, Pirates game, you will drive yourself crazy saying we SHOULD be 5-7-9-11 gameso over .500 right now. And bunting? Forget about it, Ozzie. You can't change the fundamental all-or-nothing nature of this team, even with Beckham/Getz/Nix/Ramirez/Rios/Kotsay injecting some needed athleticism. We're nothing but an "average" team that looks like 2003, but something's amiss with the chemistry (see 2002-2004), we have one of the worst defenses in the entire American League (and all of baseball) and hopefully that can be rectified at least a little bit with the Rios acquisition and in the offseason. We haven't been a dominant home team like 2008, and we haven't been a come-from-behind team, either. What we have been is an enormous tease that has driven some of us almost off the ledge, and, if not for 2005, I would be pretty pissed off right now but I've just come to the conclusion that competing all season long with the young players coming into the line-up is "gravy" and if we can somehow sneak out of September with the division title, we can be much more dangerous than last year's "wounded" team surviving down the stretch. If I was a Twins' fans, I would be MUCH more discouraged about this season and the future in the new ballpark, as well as the pressing issues of retaining Nathan, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel long-term.

The problem is that he's PROBABLY in that 87-90/91 MPH zone right now...iffy. But that's still better than Torres and arguably better than Contreras...although Jose could much more easily get on a roll and throw three shutouts down the stretch (more likely than Garcia, who would certainly give up 3-5 runs per start), of that there's no doubt.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Aug 12, 2009 -> 02:55 PM) The only inputs into this formula are OBP and SLG. But there's a lot more than that to how a lineup meshes. For one thing, this system completely misses speed, which is why it has Jim Thome -- our best combined OBP/SLG guy -- in the #2 hole. What I don't get is how it also has Ramirez, who's near lowest on the team in OPS or runs created per game, as a #3 hitter. The other thing to note about this? There are 30 "best lineups" listed, with multiple orders. The difference between the top and the bottom is 0.007 of a run per game. Over a season, this would make the difference of 1.134 runs! But, of course, the players OBPs and SLG numbers vary much more radically from game to game, and you don't know by how much until after the game is played. My conclusion? Don't worry so much about batting order. Worry much more about putting the right 9 guys on the field. I'll agree to that, I just thought it was interesting and a bit counterintuitive, to create some discussion. It's hard for anyone to be arguing that Beckham isn't the best, and most balanced hitter, and therefore deserves to bat 1-2-3. No arguments from anyone there. Where it gets interesting is who bats 2nd (Getz/Rios/Beckham/Ramirez) and the two "speed" guys you stick at the bottom of the line-up. Nix is also interesting too...the guy has been like Gordon Beckham when playing against RH'ers. But do you give the likes of Nix or Getz more AB's than Alex Rios, your new $60 million dollar man? I don't think so. Going forward, can Pods keep up those same numbers? How good will Quentin actually be the remainder of the year....and how bad will JD actually be? This is a good schedule to really test the mettle of our our players, the VETERANS (Pods, Thome, AJ, Paulie, JD) as they wear down (like Alexei did last year) and the youngsters like Beckham, Getz, Nix, etc.

QUOTE (The Baconator @ Aug 12, 2009 -> 11:12 AM) Wow, this info kind of throws a wrench in many people's predictions for the lineups... Raines' thread about Getz as leadoff does not sit well according to this analysis. But then again, neither does Rios at leadoff which many have mused. Then again, the projected runs scored for the worst lineup is 5.159 runs per game while our lineups this season have averaged only 4.640 With Pods for the full season, a 875-925 OPS Carlos Quentin (he's still below 800, but barely now), Ramirez hitting like he did in 2008 and Beckham for a full season, not to mention Alex Rios playing up to his potential...this line-up could be absolutely devastating to the ALCD. Even Nix has been VERY VERY potent in spot duty, with a SLG PCTG of almost 450. Yes, Getz should be hitting 9th (he's our worst hitter of the 9) and Rios 8th.

I want to know why anyone who has watched Beckham play SS in BIRM or for UGA on an everyday basis thinks he'd be better than Alexei or at least a major league "average" SS defensively?

QUOTE (DanksFan @ Aug 12, 2009 -> 11:25 AM) Beckham Ramirez Quentin Thome Konerko Pierzynski Dye Rios Getz I have too much respect for what JD has accomplished over the last five seasons with the White Sox to demote him to the 7th spot just yet.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Aug 12, 2009 -> 11:03 AM) Chris Getz has a line of .296 .359 in 22 games since the ASB. In July and August he has started to show a better ability to avoid the strikeout and get on base. When Rios is in the lineup, he should be in CF and I think we should give Getz a shot to hit leadoff. This would be my lineup. 1. Getz 2B 2. Beckham 3B 3. Quentin LF 4. Thome DH 5. Konerko 1B 6. Dye RF 7. AJP C 8. Rios CF 9. Alexei SS Speed and power to turn the lineup over, everyone but Getz is a HR threat. SB threats at 1, 2, 8, 9. I think Beckham+Q works out pitchers alot more than when Dye is in the 3-hole. Completely disagree (see the thread I just started)....Pods/Rio/Getz belong at the bottom of the order. Why would we want Alexei Ramirez to get the least number of at-bats of any player in the line-up? And you still have an incredibly slow, plodding 3-7 in the order, with Quentin's foot not 100%. You have to break up that 3-7 a little bit. But no way should Chris Getz be getting the most at-bats of any player on the team. He's not Vince Coleman from the 85-87 Cardinals either...and it's not like he's going to give you more than 30-40 stolen bases in a full season if he was leading off every game. He's a rookie, he's had a hot streak (you noted the best 22 game stretch), but how likely is that to continue in his rookie season as the dog days of summer stretch across the horizon....do we really believe Chris Getz is a legit .350-.360 OBP guy on a regular, consistent, season-long basis? Really?

I do find it interesting that Beckham is almost always hitting #1 in these simulations. It makes sense, you want your best hitter getting the most AB's, or no lower than #3 in the order. Getz and Pods, on very good teams, belong at the bottom of the order...and Rios belongs at #8 this year, that's pretty stout to have an 8th place hitter projecting for 90+ RBI's, a little like the 2000 offense if all the guns are blazing at once.

Feel free to merge with the White Sox 2010 line-up thread, sorry, didn't see that one...