caulfield12

I think McClatchy was trying to find a buyer recently. I'm assuming this is because of the downturn in profits from his media (mostly newspaper) empire... Sadly, the most profitable thing he will do for the rest of his media career is probably sell the Pirates and they will end up relocating with that beautiful new stadium becoming a ghost town. I hope not, Roberto Clemente and Pops Stargell would be turning over in their graves.

QUOTE (Ranger @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 05:17 PM) I see plenty of reason to believe the defense will at least be "fine". It should be plenty better than last year, for sure. Clearly, the outfield defense will be stronger than it was last year, especially if Jones could play the OF with Quentin DHing. Pierre is probably one of the most fundamentally/mentally sound players in the game, he doesn't make mental mistakes. He will always be limited by his arm strength, but we won't be holding our heads in our hands with anxiety every time a ball goes into LF like we did with Pods (and yes, he was actually better last year than in the past). Rios will be very good in CF and RF and reminds me a lot of Devon White, so smooth and effortless he actually looks lazy. No diving around on nearly every play like Aaron Rowand. However, Teahen is always going to be shaky at 3B...unless we compare him to Fields. Or maybe he will finally "relax" if he can play just one position and not worry about the outfield, 2B, 1B, etc. Ramirez SHOULD be better in his second full season, and Beckham SHOULD be better than Getz as a converted SS. Konerko is Konerko. I expect "middle of the pack" defensive numbers from this team. The Twins went from one of the worst defenses to "very good" in just a season or two, same with the Mariners, it's possible.

QUOTE (heirdog @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 03:38 PM) This analysis was flawed from the start. You can't say Konerko won't have a career avg year and at the same time say Thome will. One has a hip issue, the other a back issue...one is still significantly younger than the other. One still played pretty much the whole year last year and put up better numbers...that one is Konerko, not Thome. And the final nail in the coffin is when someone noted that only 5 teams scored over 800 runs and only the Yanks over 900. As soon as we see that, we can throw out the 939 twinkie number and go back to the drawing board. If you noted later in the thread, I swapped out Thome for Punto, it drove them down to a measly 900 runs. This was based on last year's averages for the Twins, and I used just last year's numbers for Thome, not his career numbers, which are obviously stronger. The difference for Paulie from career to last year was just 0.07 on OBP and about 0.16 on SLG. When I recalculated, the White Sox went from 808 to 800 if I more realistically bumped Konerko down a bit. If I went with Andruw Jones' 2009 numbers alone instead of the 3 year sliding average, things might have been better, same with Pierre. HOWEVER, since Quentin and Rios were given credit for their overall average numbers over a career, that obviously was a big jump over what they both produced last year. Many are HOPING Beckham can put up an 850, but I think it's fair to leave him around 807 for now. As someone else noted, Kubel and Cuddyer had great years, and Mauer as well. Are those repeatable? Probably not. Of course, the chances are that Harris and Punto won't get all of those at-bats either over the course of a season. If you stick Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez or Orlando Cabrera (742 OPS) into the equation instead of Punto's (622/624) line, the numbers shoot up again for the Twins. Or even Joe Crede.

Either somebody tricked Ozzie Guillen into believing the White Sox are moving to the NL Central and thus don't need a designated hitter, or he's been persuaded it's 2002 all over again. Guillen told reporters on Monday that the White Sox won't bring back slugger Jim Thome(notes) and instead will use a rotation that includes Andruw Jones(notes), Mark Kotsay(notes) and Omar Vizquel(notes). Guillen's rationale? Jones, Kotsay and Vizquel could grab a glove or mitt and play defense. All Thome can do is swing a bat and whatever that might be worth, it won't be worth Thome's or the Sox's time, says Guillen. From the Chicago Sun-Times: "It came down to getting enough at-bats,'' Guillen explained. "I don't want a season where Jim sits three or four days in a row and the media comes up to him and asks, 'You're not playing ...' This thing will become a soap opera." Remember, remember, the 25th of January. Because it might be the day the White Sox gave away first place. Thome turns 40 in August and — even though he finished the '09 season in the National League with the Dodgers — his days on defense are over. So Guillen has a point about roster flexibility. And it's great, I guess, that general manager Ken Williams is giving the manager meaningful input on how the roster is composed in the first place. But someone needed to nudge Ozzie in the ribs to remind him that Thome was the team's best offensive player in 2009. And now, in 2010, the White Sox have just made him fully available to the two other top contenders in their own division. The Twins and Tigers, along with the Rays in the AL East, have been sniffing around Thome — who was going to give his old club the right of first refusal. Foolishly, they have refused his services despite Thome leading the White Sox in on-base and slugging percentage in '09. The White Sox finished with 79 victories because they also finished near the bottom in runs scored in the AL. Getting rid of Thome doesn't improve their biggest weakness. So, the White Sox are counting on career seasons from Mark Teahen(notes) and Alex Rios(notes), and rebound from Carlos Quentin(notes), to make up for Thome's loss. On the off-chance all of that happens, they've still given their opponents a free shot to get better. Didn't Guillen and Williams imagine Thome in Minnesota's lineup instead of someone like Delmon Young(notes) or Brian Buscher(notes) at DH? And did he forget that two seasons ago, the White Sox and Twins needed 163 games to decide the AL Central? Chicago beat the Twins 1-0 on the last day of the regular season thanks in part to a solo home run by ... James Howard Thome. Guillen seems to be worried about managing the nine road interleague games, when DHs become nothing but well-paid pinch hitters. What about the other 95 percent of the time when the White Sox struggle to score runs in AL parks? Thome's replacements don't inspire much confidence. Jones claims to be in his best shape in a decade and he won 10 Gold Gloves in Atlanta. He used to be able to hit, too, so maybe he's come to his senses and again will be valuable. Kotsay played well for the White Sox last year and would seem to be a good bench guy — in the National League. His defensive metrics have gone way south the past two seasons, though. He's never been Thome with the bat, either. His resemblance to actor Stephen Baldwin neither hurts nor helps. Vizquel is a wonder at almost 43 years old, but if Guillen actually ever uses him as a designated hitter, Ozzie needs to be put down. It looks to me like the White Sox could use a power lefty bat in their lineup. Know of any on the market? David Brown, Yahoo Sports

With Jim Thome plugged in for Andruw Jones, the White Sox go from 800 runs scored to 843. Essentially, if Thome is playing everyday, he adds 39 runs to the Twins' line-up and 43 runs to the White Sox line-up. Net shift, 82 to the Twins. I didn't do the numbers swapping out Dye for Pierre, but I bet they'd be pretty close to 900.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...362&Model=1 With Punto (322 OBP/324 SLG) substituted for Thome, it knocks the Twins down to 900 runs scored (a difference of 39 runs per year having Thome over Nick Punto as DH, haha). Factoring in that we can't really expect Konerko to hit his career averages, it knocks the White Sox down to 800 runs scored. Which means we only need to pitch at 0.617 ERA below the Twins. Perhap the most interesting result (not to many) is that Gordon Beckham is the leadoff hitter in every scenario and Juan Pierre's the #9 hitter. Not that we'll ever see that happen. Not 100 a run difference, but with Dye (340/490) instead of Pierre and Thome in the line-up, we're at 862 runs scored. Of course, that's not taking into consideration outfield defense, simply an offensive metric. It is interesting that at least on paper we're losing about 0.4 RPG, plus the Twins are definitely gaining SOMETHING with Thome, maybe not 0.37, but probably 0.2. It's a net shift between the two teams of at least half a run per game, that's pretty huge.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...362&Model=1 It's a big "chunk" to copy and paste, but a combination of Span/Mauer/Thome/Morneau/Cuddyer/Kubel/D. Young/Hardy/Brendan Harris can give the Twins as many as 939 runs. Based on all of their stats for 2009, including Hardy's pretty terrible year. Next, I'll do a "head to head" comparison with the White Sox, and just to be "fair/er" to the likes of Carlos Quentin, I'll go with the career averages of OBP/SLG for all of our players except for Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre (2007-2009 numbers averaged). http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...393&Model=1 Doing the same for the White Sox gives 4.987 RPG or 808 for a full season. That's with my fairly generous counting the career average of Konerko, which I'm not sure we can expect out of him...bumping him down a bit puts us around 800 runs scored for the entire season. You can take out Thome and substitute Punto and that will obviously change those numbers a bit for the Twins, but the difference with Thome and Cuddyer both in the line-up would be 0.81 runs per game. In other words, if our pitching manages a 3.75 ERA (being optimistic), the Twins would be even with us at a 4.56 team ERA.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 11:10 AM) Heck, the Royals could have a better rotation with Greinke and Meche at the top. They have a better rotation than the Indians, but the reason they win games is because they have the M&M boys. While the Sox rotation is made of 1's and 2's (and Freddy), the Twins have a rotation of 4's and 5's and maybe a 3 in Duensing. Baker has the stuff to be a legit 2 starter, although he regressed last season. Slowey is more like a Sonnanstine type who profiles as a 4/5 but pitched like a 2/3 in 2008. Blackburn is a 3/4, although he has had his moments against us and has really been their "big game" pitcher. Perkins, if he can stay healthy, has a "plus" arm. Pavano was suprisingly good for them, he could be anything from a 3-5. He pitched much much better than his ERA of around 5 would indicate because of one or two really terrible outings, the rest were basically "quality" starts. Yes, it's a far cry from Santana/Liriano/Radke/Garza, but they got the job done last year. Then you throw other names onto the list like Liriano, Manship, Swarzak, they have a lot of depth. That's at least 9 starters. We have six, unless you count Torres and Hynick as 7 and 8.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 09:50 AM) Great post. And they're serious about Mauer too. I think they'll keep him. These are the new Twins, and they plan on kicking our asses through the next decade. Hopefully Kenny and Ozzie wake up. It's amazing the difference a year makes in baseball. I guess I haven't been as excited as I was last off-season simply because of the way the season ended...not quite like 2007, but disappointing nonetheless. I guess we'll just have to hope that Hudson, Flowers, Mitchell, Viciedo and Danks all become regular contributors with the big league club, and you know the likelihood of that happening is about 3-5%. As far as Mauer goes, if they make the playoffs again (and you know he'll enjoy having Thome in the clubhouse, just like Konerko and Dye did), it's hard to imagine him leaving for New York. They lost Santana eventually and managed to get a horrible return, but I think Mauer is cut out of a different cloth, he's a Twin Cities native and he just seems very comfortable playing for the Twins. With the new field, there's not as much concern about his health, although over time you'd have to think they would try him at 3B (like Johnny Bench) or 1B/DH to preserve his knees. No doubt there will be a full-court press from the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox. But I still think of him like Ripken and Gwynn, one of those franchise players that will end up playing for the Twins his entire career. A lot of Twins' fans don't believe they'll be able to keep him, they've witness the penurious ways of the Pohlad family for too long there, but with the son in charge and all the excitement and momentum of a new stadium, I think the odds are 75-85% that they end up keeping him and breaking open the bank to do so.

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/ticketing/season.jsp The RF porch has a pretty short fence by the looks of it...probably 8' or 9' I would guess.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 09:29 AM) If that was the Sox rotation you would be calling for 65 wins. Its not good. They also have Swarzak, Manship and their prize possession who will move fast in Kyle Gibson, who's predicted to be their #1 starter in 2012 or 2013. The Twins were active acquiring talent all summer. With the 22nd overall pick in June, they drafted Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson, a projected top-10 pick choice who was available because he had a stress reaction in his right forearm. Gibson signed at the Aug. 17 deadline for $1.85 million, marking the first time Minnesota took a premier talent who slid and paid him a seven-figure, above-slot bonus. In another first, the Twins paid the highest bonus on the international market in 2009 and the highest for an international player in franchise history when infielder Miguel Sano signed in September for $3.15 million. Minnesota had kicked off the international period by signing German outfielder Max Kepler for $800,000, the largest bonus ever given to a European position player. from baseballamerica.com The Twins are going into an all-new stadium, they're not messing around.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 10:17 AM) Now do the pitching... And I want to hear plenty of obscure names. It doesn't matter if Hudson, Hynick, Torres, Nunez, Santeliz, Williams, Threets and Santos was our bullpen and our top four starters all had ERA's below 4.00, with an offense in the bottom quartile, we won't make the playoffs.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 10:03 AM) Did I miss us being projected for the same amount of homers as last year? Because it sure sounds like we are going to hit about 100 homers this year. Great, the same team that was what, tied for last in the AL for OPS in the second half of the season? That's not exactly reassuring. And those predictions are predicated on a fully healthy Carlos Quentin, Gordon Beckham not having a sophomore slump, Alex Rios returning to form, Mark Teahen playing like an All-Star for a full season and Andruw Jones/Kotsay hitting 20-30 homers combined.

Upon learning that the Twins had signed Thome, Kenny Williams replied with a smirk ..... "All this has done is put the Twins in a better position to contend with us." C'mon Kenny, I dare you to repeat those words this time. Double-dare. You might have everyone believing that this year's squad roster is all on Ozzie's shoulders, but I'm not buying it. You are the "Commander-in-Chief" of the White Sox. The "buck stops with you," as Harry S. Truman used to say. Hopefully you have a better response than Jones/Kotsay.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 09:44 AM) They are playing outdoors now and the IF grass is going to deaden the ball more, and in summer it still does get pretty hot up there, so it makes sense for the Twins to continue moving away from the "grinder" types into more of a power + OBP team. Note to KW: We're not playing our home games at SAFECO or PetCo Park. KW and Ozzie have given us the type of team that's constructed for Old Comiskey Park or the Metrodome...or one of those late 60's/early 70's "cookie cutter" artificial turf stadiums that became so prevalent in the NL. Unfortunately, the Twins are better suited for their stadium than we are for ours, as is our pitching staff. I'm sure our team ERA would be down a full 0.5 RPG playing in our old stadium. Likewise, while it might be a good lesson for both of those overconfident guys to learn, it's going to come at the expense of the fans. I wish they would stop trying to prove how smart they are or "counterintuitive" and start concerning themselves about constructing an upper-tier AL offense.

They have some other options that would make their line-up even more potent. Putting Cuddyer back at 3B, for example, even though his defense over there is atrocious, that takes the second weakest bat (Harris) out of the line-up. There's some thought they might re-sign Crede (3B)/Orlando Cabrera (for 2B) or go after Orlando Hudson and/or Felipe Lopez. I think there really will be some serious concern around here if they were to ALSO bring in Orlando Hudson at 2B, that would be a helluva line-up with O-Dog added to the mix with his skill-set. If they somehow can take Punto out of the starting line-up and put him back in his super-sub role for a superior offensive player, they're really going to be a team to be reckoned with.

No, Jim Thome isn't the answer at second base or third base -- and, in fact, he isn't likely to see the field at all with the Twins. But when you can add a scary good Hall of Fame bat that gives Gardy a Plan B lineup or game-changing option on the bench, it's a deal too good to be passed up. Having Thome sitting on the bench will change the way an opposing manager views his bullpen when it comes to facing Mauer, Morneau and Kubel. Bring in your lefty to face pinch-hitting Thome in the seventh and you don't have him available in the ninth when the big guys come to bat. Give Delmon Young a day (or week) off in the outfield and you can have a lineup that goes: Span, cf; Mauer, c; Morneau, 1b; Thome, dh; Cuddyer, rf; Kubel, lf; Hardy, ss; Harris, 3b; Punto, 2b. I'll start that one against Zack Greinke or Justin Verlander five times a year. You knew that Thome had a higher on-base percentage against right-handers last season than Morneau, right? So even if the 39-year-old Thome slips a bit in 2010, he has a long way to slide before he becomes Ruben Sierra or Bret BOOne. On XM's baseball channel, in the hours after the trade, one of the chatterers was saying that he thought Thome was a wretched fit for the Twins because of the players they already have. I guess sending Matt Tolbert or Jason Pridie up to pinch hit late in the game seems acceptable to someone who doesn't have to watch it happen in real time. Jim Bowden, the former Cincinnati and Washington general manager, smoked that argument by pointing out that Thome provides depth in case anything happens to Cuddyer, Morneau, Young or even (for a short period of time) Span. Injuries happen. Slumps happen. I can see Thome getting 300 at-bats even if everyone stays healthy and someone (Delmon) doesn't play himself into a reserve role. If injuries happen -- see Morneau and Span, 2009; Cuddyer, 2008 -- Thome could get a regular's haul of plate appearances. Last year, even though Gardy basically had four outfielders for three spots, he was hard pressed for much of the season to have three highly functioning ones because Carlos Gomez regressed and Delmon didn't get it together until near season's end. The DH options weren't the greatest when Kubel played in the field. In 2010, Gardy won't be shy about going Kubel-Span-Cuddyer if Delmon struggles. If anyone wants to wager, I'll bet Thome gets more starts against right-handers in 2010 than Delmon. You can book the bet with me from noon to 1 p.m. Saturday during TwinsFest, when I'll be at the Star Tribune booth, talking baseball and (I'm told) giving away root beer-flavored lip balm. I like root beer and I'm OK with lip balm. But I think getting Thome is a better deal. Minneapolis Star-Tribune Sports "I think the Twins showed the most interest; that's what really caught my eye," Thome said. "They were really excited about me coming there, so to me, it was a no-brainer. I've always enjoyed the way they played, the way they go about their business, so to be a part of that will be a lot of fun." Thome's incentives kick in with 250 plate appearances, and he will collect all $750,000 if he reaches 500. The signing could reduce left fielder Delmon Young's playing time. Kubel, who wants to play the outfield more, could move to left field, with Thome moving into the DH spot, especially against righthanders. "A guy like Jim, he's not going to just come off the bench," Gardenhire said. "We'll get plenty of at-bats for him. Kubel's my DH, and Delmon's my left fielder, and we all know that going into it, and Jim's going to play a role off the bench and spot play at DH."

QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 12:08 AM) Here is the formula that explains his behavior. But if you take a "normal" person and make them famous or give them an audience, isn't it even MORE true that their behavior becomes polarizing and sometimes downright mean or insensitive? For example, most of the tv hosts/talk radio/political commentators these days, on both the left and the right. How many of them are "moderate" or independent in their thinking? I think the same thing applies to message boards. If you say "reasonable" or logical things, sometimes it seems people don't notice. So you end up with this phenomenon of people saying the most outlandish possible things in order to get attention or have an effect. I think this is one of the large reasons that CNN is losing viewership to FOX and MSNBC...there are fewer and fewer people who want "balanced/objective" journalism.

Having Thome around definitely will never HURT a team. As everyone knows, he's one of the most respected and liked players in all of baseball. Whether it will sell any more season tickets, probably not many. Just like having Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel around hasn't caused anyone to break out the checkbook for Sox tix. Vizquel will be in the HOF and Jones was clearly headed there until he fell off a cliff 3-4 seasons ago. When you start seeing Jones/Vizquel White Sox jerseys or Thome "Twins" jerseys, then you would have to acknowledge they're making an impact. 90% of opening any new stadium is the stadium itself, and even the weather won't deter fans this year. With Mauer and Morneau, they already have two big superstars to market. That's all they need, really.

With Gomez gone, and Kubel's knee getting stronger each year after his major surgery, you'll see more of Kubel in the outfield because loading up that line-up with those four lefties is simply too tempting. Especially if Delmon Young struggles like he did the first half of 2009. He's never going to be a good defender, but he's not going to be Josh Fields or Viciedo out there either.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 11:33 PM) So there's no chance he drops off at age 39? Heck, last year was a decline in OPS from anything he's ever had in a full year. Sure, there's a chance, but what's the risk? How is it any riskier than gambling on at least five hitters (and Greg Walker, by extension) to elevate their games? As has been noted ad infinitum, Kotsay/Jones/Pierre have also seemed to be on the downside from their peaks as well. I won't even go into Omar Vizquel at this point as an offensive "force." I'm just hoping the "coaching/mentoring" value of Vizquel to Beckham/Ramirez/Teahen is worth the roster spot. Because we've seen the results of those "Camp Coras" and Ozzie's bunting/fundamentals clinics and how lasting the effects are on the team.

I think with the success of "The Blind Side" by the same author (surely they'll use that Michael Lewis connection in trailers) and Mr. Hollywood Brad Pitt attached to the project, it will end up getting made. I'm actually curious if Kenny Williams would agree to play himself in that role. Since it's basically denigrating his performance as GM, I wouldn't think so. On the other hand, Kenny's ego is big enough that he fancies himself capable of portraying his own persona much more accurately than any Hollywood actor.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 09:03 PM) You can say pretty much the same thing about the Pirates. That's a team with a storied history that has hardly been relevant in my lifetime, and I turn 23 this year. The early 90's Pirates teams were great with Bonds, Bonilla, Drabeck, Leyland, etc. Of course, you have the Roberto Clemente Era teams with 2 World Series titles and the 79 "We Are Family" team with those crazy hats with the yellow stripes and stars like they now put on football helmets (Willie Stargell and Kent Tekulve). In KC, David Glass has been a so-so owner, but he's just not as personally rich as Kauffman was, nor is he willing to put winning over the finances of the team or himself personally. Simply, he's someone that people might respect as a business leader from his Wal-Mart days, but there's so much backlash against that style of running a business that he suffers for it by extension. And he just doesn't have a "vibrant" or charismatic personality. It's kind of like comparing Martha Coakley and the new Massachusetts Senator. I can understand why so many Dems were frustrated that they actually voted across party lines. Well, that's how a lot of people feel about Glass in comparison to Kauffman, he can never measure up no matter what he does (which hasn't been much, the jury's definitely out on Hillman and Dayton Moore replacing Allard Baird/Muser and Pena). They've made some very strange decisions in the last decade, such as signing Gil Meche (better than expected) but trading away Damon/Dye/Beltran and not receiving much of value is those deals...as well as bringing in Jose Guillen for that type of salary when he was declining as an outfielder and always a difficult personality for the best "New Age" manager to deal with just didn't make much sense.

What I'm not understanding is why is Thome such a big risk now when he was a much bigger risk in 2006 coming off injury and with a significantly larger contract, despite the subsidy/offwrite from Pat Gillick? He was in his mid 30's then, still well past the age that hitters start to decline significantly. So now spending $1.5-2.0 million is suddenly a huge risk when they spent 5-6X that on Big Jim last year? I don't get it. Once again, if they'd done ANYTHING to shore up the position, this wouldn't be an issue. And in fact, they have. Andruw Jones could take those at-bats against lefties. It just doesn't have any logic when we play 81 games at USCF. The Twins are a better team with Jim Thome and we are worse without him (and no suitable replacement), pure and simple.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 03:30 PM) Ill tell you this Steve. No team starting Jim Bob-Hicks will ever win a World Series. (hahahaa) Yes, but they might win a Nascar title. I'm sure Bob Dylan will be the Crew Chief, too.