caulfield12

QUOTE (Pumpkin Escobar @ Feb 17, 2009 -> 11:26 PM) I agree with this. I am hoping that if we are out of it we can move these guys for solid prospects as I am very concerned about arbitration next year. If we are able to take notes from the Cabrera situation, it may be in our best interest to move our guys at the deadline. Hopefully we are in a position of adding players for a playoff run but if not, so be it. Next offseason though. Not to get ahead of ourselves but since it was brought up, I completely agree that we'll have a lot of payroll flexibility and we'll be able to get discounts because of the economy. Off the top of my head some free agents I see us going after or would like to go after are: Roberts Figgins Crawford (not sure though if he has a option off the top of my head) Vlad Holliday Matsui Winn For pitching. I was talking about this with a buddy when we were discussing Bedards value and I do belive he is a FA. With Contreras coming off the books - I wouldnt mind taking a flier on him for half that or finding a guy like Lackey or Webb or something would be a big addition to this club. Especially if we see a regression from Danks and Floyd. Big insurance policy. Anyways...just my thought on the comment above. Hopefully this season goes well but I think that next offseason may be a telling sign why we were less committed to making moves and strapped for cash. Crawford will have his option picked up. We definitely need some LH bats (internally, we have Brandon Allen and that's it in terms of power). Some names we'll hear include Ankiel and Holliday (but both Boras clients)...Chipper Jones, Carlos Delgado and maybe (although doubtful) Jason Bay. Hank Blalock might get some consideration too, if he stays healthy. I don't see Vladimir Guerrero as an option...think he will still be injury-prone, and he's not a left-handed DH to replace Jim Thome. Perhaps Aubrey Huff will be the conversation? I'm sure Roberts, Figgins and Abreu will all be under consideration as well. Both Lackey and Webb will be too expensive...although we will/should have some money to play around with, unless the economy completely collapses and our attendance sinks below 1.75 million. I guess anything's possible. Bedard will be too expensive to bring aboard if he has another impressive season....and too risky for the price barring a Colon-esque contract.

For Shelby III, I meant out of high school. Yes, he MIGHT be the best athlete (along with Jord. Danks) in our system right now. Big year for him. Let's hope he continues to progress and gives us yet another option from our system. At the very least, he could be yet another valuable trade "chip" for KW.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Feb 17, 2009 -> 04:08 PM) Good analysis as always 'field. I concur wholeheartedly that the right handedness is a problem with the future lineup, provided it's kept together. I believe, though, that the Sox will wind up trading someone, probably Fields, after he hopefully establishes some trade value this season. They'll look for young pitching, and to get even younger, further from arb, etc. With Getz having the first crack at 2B, possibly, this season, if he establishes himself as a good OBP guy, he'll be hard to get out of the lineup because they need his lefthandedness, probably in the 2-hole in front of Q. Basically, we got hope like hell that Allen develops, can play 1B, and could be good enough to be in the four or five-hole. Meanwhile, we replace Thome with another left-handed DH, maybe a faster, OBP guy. Then, we get something like this. 3B Beckham 2B Getz RF Q LF Dayan 1B Allen or Lefty DH SS Missile DH Lefty or Allen C Flowers CF JorDanks This lineup has plenty of L-R balance, speed and power. And in 2011, at least, it'll be pretty dirt cheap, too. This is what I'm hoping for anyway. Obviously the outfield defense/catching could be suspect, but the infield might be solid. Moving Dayan to DH and getting a lefty OF could get the same type of lineup and better defense. Not to beat a dead horse, but I wouldn't rule out Abreu as an acquisition down the road. He's one a one year deal, Vlad may soon require a graceful transition to the Angels' DH, and we'll need him even more post-Thome. Maybe there will be better options in the next two FA classes. Scott Boras' top guys for the 2009-10 offseason: Adrian Beltre, Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, and Ryan Madson. He's weak in the starting pitching category with Jarrod Washburn and Kevin Millwood. The group feels older than this year's. Players who will be under 30 in 2010: Omar Infante, Hank Blalock, Wily Mo Pena, Rich Harden, Brett Myers, and Madson. John Lackey heads the starting pitchers, though he may sign an extension. After him it's Myers, unless Erik Bedard or Harden have huge, healthy years. Of course, there's always guys you don't see coming, like Ryan Dempster this year. If you want a big bat, you're looking at whoever's left of Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, Chipper Jones, Jason Bay, Holliday, Ankiel, Jermaine Dye, Vladimir Guerrero, Aubrey Huff, and Jim Thome. Forget about these guys, whose options will likely be exercised: Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb. from mlbtraderumors.com I guess you can throw Abreu and maybe Dunn into the mix, although Dunn's desirability ranking took a dive somewhat with that curious contract from the Nationals.

QUOTE (scenario @ Feb 17, 2009 -> 07:09 PM) I'm not sure why you seem so down on Shelby (I gather that from this and earlier posts). What's not to like? IMO the kid is the full package... speed and power. In a poll of Carolina League managers, Shelby was selected the most exciting offensive player in the league. And the Sox seem to have committed him to playing LF and not 2B, but you're not buying it. Why? I'm not entirely sure. Maybe because being a White Sox "top prospect" hasn't been as meaningful this decade. Part of it will be that he will turn 24 this season, so he's a bit older or at the same age as the players around him. Perhaps because he was undrafted, despite being the son of a former major leaguer. Maybe he's going to be more like Durham than Willie Harris at the major league level. This will be a very important season for him. Jord. Danks and Shelby are really our only legit outfield prospects, unless you throw Viciedo into that mix. To play a corner outfield spot, he's either going to have to be a player like Pods and lead off, be able to hit 20 homers consistently (maybe that's possible at USCF)...or we're going to have to pick up the power from our middle infield (possible with Beckham/Ramirez), catcher (Flowers) and centerfielder. Maybe he is a fit...I'm just not sure about his defensive ability. He seems to be one of those players without a real position...that's both good and bad...but sometimes players like that get labelled early in their careers as utility players or 4th outfielders. I'm not going to say he doesn't have the ability to outproduce, say Chris Getz, because all signs point to him being a more dynamic offensive player than either Getz or Lillibridge (Soriano-Lite or maybe something like Ramirez last year sprinkled in with 10-15 more steals). One thing is for sure. He's definitely getting overlooked or forgotten about with the focus on the top five players in our system...and the continuing hopes for Danks and Brandon Allen. Maybe if our depth chart hadn't flipped so dramatically, his name would be more prevalent in our conversations. You also have to believe that if Viciedo impresses and Quentin continues his career ascension that Shelby really doesn't fit in as a DH (well, maybe!) 2B seems to be the position where he had the most upside, yet he was moved off that spot, most likely because of defensive concerns.

QUOTE (scenario @ Feb 17, 2009 -> 01:42 PM) Good points. And the Phils replace Pat Burrell (who is about 6 months younger than Konerko and about 2 months older than AJ) with Raul Ibanez (36) and no mention of age either. Oh well. It always seems to be our team's advantage to play with a chip on their shoulder, so I shouldn't complain if media guys help us out there, eh? Not to mention Jamie Moyer. I think it's the fact that all of those guys (Konerko/AJ/Dye) have been together going on five seasons now and have been the core of the line-up (along with the addition of Thome in 2006, and Thome's age) that has largely created this perception. And, as they say, perception is 90% of reality. Maybe they listened to Ozzie and KW repeatedly saying how old and one-dimensional we are/were and it's hard for the media to get rid of that perception. We have a lot of interesting youth and talent (Ramirez is approaching his prime years, Viciedo, Flowers, Poreda, Beckham, Quentin, Danks, Floyd, Jenks, Fields, Lillibridge, Getz...even including the likes of Anderson, Owens, Betemit, Marquez, Richard, Allen, Shelby and Jordan Danks). When those three or four "core" players are gone and you start talking about this line-up: Gordon Beckham, 2B Alexei Ramirez, SS Carlos Quentin, RF Dayan Viciedo, LF (DH/1B) Tyler Flowers, C (DH) Brandon Allen, 1B (DH) Josh Fields, 3B/1B Lillibridge/Danks/Anderson, CF That's a very young and athletic collection of talent. There's one VERY, VERY big and obvious flaw with this future line-up. Well, make that two. First, there's NO left-handed hitters on the horizon, with the exception of Brandon Allen and maybe Chris Getz. If we thought your line-up was unbalanced before with only Thome and AJ (usually), this one is even worse in that regard. Next, there's four players in that line-up (which doesn't have a DH) that are essentially DH's perhaps as their BEST position. Brandon Allen, Flowers, Viciedo and Fields...so what KW has on his hands is a much younger version of the all-or-nothing 2000-2008 offenses, more or less. The main difference is that we're not only younger, but more athletic than in the past, especially up the middle of the diamond (Ramirez, Beckham, Lillibridge, Jordan Danks, Anderson) than we've been this decade. Not to harp on Chris Young again, but having that combination of speed/power/athleticism just gives your team (see D-Rays or Diamondbacks in 2007) another dimension. I guess you can add Shelby to the mix, but I've yet to figure out exactly where he fits in with the future White Sox. He's not a corner outfielder, 2B would seem to be taken and I don't think he'll ever be the defensive stud that Anderson, Lillibridge and/or Jord. Danks could be. Shelby and Getz are the players that I see having the hardest time being starters in the future, at least long-term with the White Sox.

Because Beckham and Viciedo are seen (by most of the baseball pundits and media) as being more impact players in 2010 than 2009. The comment about the rotation is spot on...something we've acknowledged all offseason, although I do think there's at least a 50/50 chance Colon gives us one surprising year. There's also the concern about Linebrink that many of us have...or Jenks becoming just an average closer, or Dotel and/or Thornton falling back to mediocrity. It's hard to imagine Ramirez will have even more of an impact offensively...and, as with Floyd, many are expecting him to fall back, and perhaps even struggle to hold SS defensively. Unless you're projecting comeback seasons for Fields, Brian Anderson and Konerko, it's hard to imagine the offense really improving, and there's concerns with Quentin and Danks repeating as well, coming off astounding seasons that almost nobody predicted. Sure, Contreras might rediscover the fountain of youth, Marquez MIGHT be the second coming of a "mediocre" Garland and/or Poreda has an unexpected/breakout impact (along with Richard being JP Howell out of the pen), but there's a lot more scenarios where things can slide backwards. We are starting to have a much nicer blend of youth and veteran leadership, but the Thome/Konerko/Dye/AJ grouping, you have to expect at least one of them to seriously regress or be injured. If it's AJ, we're really in trouble from an offensive standpoint, because Flowers simply isn't ready yet. We have a lot of interesting pieces and "spare parts" (Lillibridge, Getz, Betemit, Anderson, Owens...probably Fields, too) but nobody knows exactly what to expect out of any of them over a full season...or if any of those six are capable of being full-time major league players (yes, I realize you can stick Andy Gonzalez out there and call him a regular, but that doesn't mean he will perform, same with D.Richar and Willie Harris in the past).

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Feb 17, 2009 -> 10:23 AM) I'd omit Varitek from that group. Varitek's situation was nothing but pure stupidity and greed on his part. Boston offered arb and NO ONE was going to take Varitek for an equal or greater salary PLUS give up a pick on top of that but yet Varitek passed. For all this s*** about Borass being a top agent, it doesn't sound like he knows how to assess a market, and Varitek should have known better than to take his idiotic advice. Varitek should have fired that assclown on the spot. It seems that Borass' only good deals lately have been with his no-brainer candidates like A-Rod and Teixera. He got dropped by a few players and almost f***ed Pedro Alvarez out of playing in 2009 among other things. The situations for Juan Cruz, Orlando Cabrera, and Orlando Hudson are unfortunate however. Those are all very good players who are worth last year's market value and are certainly worth a couple draft picks. If Cruz does do a sign-and-trade with the D'Backs I hope we enter the picture, especially if he's only going to cost like $3M on a 1-year deal or something like that. Edit: I just have to add that isn't it funny how the Cubs spent $82M this offseason on 3 years of Milton Bradley and 4 of Ryan Dempster, $23M in '09, when they could have had Abreu + Cruz + Lowe for the same price per year? And they traded their best pitching 'spect for Kevin Gregg, then failed to get Jake Peavy for basically nothing because they spent too much money on Alfonso Soriano, Jason Marquis, and Kosuke Fukudome. Stupid Cubs. They'll never win. The funny thing here is I remember all the talk of Hudson getting $40-50 millioni for 3-4-5 years at the beginning of this FA period. His value, along with Abreu and some of the starting pitchers like Garland and Wolf, simply fell off the face off a cliff. In the end, the deal signed by Dunn wasn't really that bad at all, in the overall scheme of this market. Abreu wanted $45/3 and might end up earning just $5 million for one season, although I think his incentives would nearly double that deal if I'm not mistaken.

He does have the right to waive that clause, about not being able to be traded until June...I think I read that somewhere. Well, this case, Varitek, Juan Cruz....they were all pretty unique. I think the White Sox would obviously have to work everything out (although I'm not sure they could put it in black and white obviously, handshake type of deal/gentleman's agreement) first with the other teams in terms of the contract numbers and the prospects coming to the Sox. Or maybe it would be one of those deals like the one for Carl Everett where the Rangers were offered a pool of players to choose from...it could also be tied into Cabrera's 2009 performance level theoretically.

One thing for sure, we don't want to see Contreras hitting, ever again. Not good. I seem to remember him also being hurt in that game at Cincinnati in May or June of 2006 when he lost his winning streak.

Just like the Yankees struck at precisely the wrong time (although they won't pay for it), the Dodgers and White Sox (also the Twins in 2010) picked the wrong time to be opening or building new facilities... Maybe 6 months ago those marketing deals would have been realistic, but not anymore. As another thread mentioned, national sponsors like Pontiac or Motorola are not often going to fire or lay 10 upper-level employees off in these times, they're going to sacrifice that $2 million in advertising and wait for the economic situation to recover. Those $200,000 sponsorships being lost are just a more "micro" version of the big picture that will be striking all professional sports franchises...it will be interesting to see if companies stick with the Big 4 (and NASCAR/PGA to a lesser extent) to spread their money around through minor league sports or "second tier" ones.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Feb 15, 2009 -> 06:03 PM) Also, when has Kenny had either A.) the financial flexibility to make such a deal, something he might have this season or B.) the young talent in the minors to make such a move, something he definitely has now. The last time was probably 2004 when he had a couple million dollars and Jeremy Reed at his disposal and he went ahead and made that BIG move. The problem has been expending all of his limited minor league/financial resources in the offseason then having nothing to offer come the deadline with this past season being a prime example of this. Don't forget Loaiza for Contreras. That trade had just as big, if not more of an impact, than the Garcia move. Luckily we ended up getting Danks for McCarthy instead of Soriano...who wouldn't have made a huge difference on our roster as currently configured, because his salary would be even more difficult to move today than Dye's. Even if the White Sox are in a free fall this year (like 2007), who could they realistically move without eating salary, which they are loath to do? You can see them TRYING to deal Dye, Konerko and Thome...maybe even AJ...but only a few teams would be willing to take their contracts, like alone give them any talent back in return. This is THE YEAR the Yankees should be able to win it all, being in the financial position they are to hand pick virtually an All-Star at every position on the diamond to add to the mix at the ASB. The only players that would draw attention would be Buehrle, Floyd and Jenks...as the assumption obviously must be that KW isn't going to trade Quentin or Danks.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 11:44 AM) Assuming all the major deals are done and we head into Spring training with close to the current roster... Why would an experienced, seasoned GM head into spring training/regular season relying on so many of the same things going right that went _inexplicably_ right last season? It's one thing to praise him for scooping undervalued legit major leaguers and turning them into productive major components on a team. It's quite another to thing they will magically retain what can only be described as peak value year after year after year. Even if we accept the fact that CQ is a fantastic all-around ballplayer, how many individuals are able to his .290/30/100 year after year after year? How many that do break out with a single season like that are pitched much differently in year 2 and regress a bit? Even if we can establish that Gavin Floyd has come around and developed into a solid #3 starter, how do his peripherals suggest anything but a ceiling of 15-17 wins and a slightly above average ERA given his skill set/tools? Is it likely that Ramirez will be able to have a similar season and have as many clutch hits? Is it acceptable to just pencil John Danks in for another 3.32 ERA season - a season that was over 2 runs in ERA better than his previous? Moreover, why are we even considering relying on guys like Contreras (injuries), Richard (little experience), Broadway (wayyyy unproven) as part of a competitive major league rotation? Why is Josh Fields going to work out at third base? Who sees anything of value in Wilson Betimet and why? Why are incomplete and substandard guys like Brian Anderson, who has admittedly been screwed over at times by this organization, still being considered as starting pieces of the puzzle? Why is this team still saddled with effectively 4 dh's, a problem we have wrestled with for going on 6 years? I guess my main question is...where the bleeping hell is our insurance policy? There are so many questions regarding this team that as it appears now the decision making process has been somewhat baffling. From a transparency standpoint, all that's been done is shedding of payroll, and no major pieces have been added. What's especially baffling about this is that KW is setting this team up to be constructed primarily in such a way that he will shoulder 100% of the blame if it does come in at anything less than 80 wins. He's asking somewhat unproven breakout stars to sustain apparently unsustainable levels, and asking AAAA (my term for major/minor 'tweener like Betimet) and AAA caliber players to rise to occasions they haven't been asked to rise to before. Please put down the "worry pipe" and be more of a Bulldog like your namesake. First, no team has significantly improved in our division. Cleveland added DeRosa and Wood, both coming off career/atypical years, and they're heading into a more difficult league. They will miss Fr. Gutierrez a lot. Just like we have our Big 4 that we're hoping for a repeat from, they are going to be hard-pressed to expect that same production out of Shin Choo Shoo and Ben Francisco. Their pitching after Lee and Carmona (assuming Lee's anywhere close to last year and Carmona doesn't become Jaime Navarro) is very, very suspect. Martinez and Hafner are question marks, healthwise. Then you have an infield consisting of DeRosa and Peralta, with Cabrera and Garko/Martinez. That's just a train wreck defensively. Second, the market will continue to loosen up throughout the season as teams fall out of the race and look to slash payroll with Blue Light sales of veteran, proven talent. As the economy also conspires against cash-strapped teams, KW will be able to swoop in and get some bargains that were too costly...the likes of Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, Orlando Hudson, etc., or another starting pitcher or bullpen piece. The season hasn't started...it's easy to predict gloom and doom and you will right about 25-33% of the time, just like Baseball Prospectus. Third, Minnesota was in the same exact position we are coming into last season...predicted for 4th place and written off by everyone. But their starting pitching and BA w/ RISP were off the charts good...none of their starters were predicted to enjoy the level of success they did so quickly, with the exception of Francisco Liriano, who was actually one of their disappointments down the stretch. It remains to be seen if he will ever be the same. Fourth, everyone just assumes that Jocketty was silly enough (and you don't win a WS as a GM being silly) to trade away 5-6 seasons of Homer Bailey for one season of an overpriced (currently) Jermaine Dye, and then undoubtedly lose him and not get draft pick compensation either. Jocketty remembers trades like V. Zambrano for Kazmir (although that was two pitchers, but a veteran for a raw talent) and those type of trade almost never occur anymore. Plus the White Sox under JR almost NEVER send money in a deal. Fifth, you're not taking into account both the present (as soon as this season) and future abilities of Josh Fields, Aaron Poreda, Dayan Viciedo, Tyler Flowers and Beckham to have a big impact on the major league club. We talk about looking for a repeat from Quentin/Ramirez/Danks/Floyd, but if they slide, isn't it equally as probable that two of those aforementioned players (if not 3) that have all been ranked near or close to the Top 50 MLB prospects will have an unexpected impact? Sixth, now is as good a time as any to find out what we really have with all these young players. Some of them won't make it. Others can be used as bargaining chips to acquire an impact bat or arm at midseason. Yes, there's the risk we're out of it at the ASB (like the Indians last year, or the White Sox in 2007), but the risk of not getting any value back for Fields or Anderson is also pretty high. Unfortunately, we lost Crede without getting anything in return and the same MIGHT happen w/ Orlando Cabrera. Seventh, after the TOP 5 prospects, we have a lot of interesting pieces that are close to making an impact...and KW just wants to throw them all into the mix and see which ones emerge victorious. FORMER PROSPECT, NOW SUSPECT (but still of value to other teams to varying degrees): Anderson, Owens, Marquez, Lillibridge, Betemit INTERESTING: Getz, Cole Armstrong, Clayton Richard, Jhonny Nunez (Yankees), Santos Rodriguez (Braves), Brandon Allen, Shelby, Jordan Danks Something will inevitably happen like Nunez or Rodriguez making the team out of ST, like Scott Radinsky or Boone Logan in seasons past. Eighth, all of major league baseball has been compressed and there is more parity than ever before, with the possible exceptions of the NYC teams...I agree, it would have been VERY NICE to add another veteran starter or CF/leadoff hitter. KW has much better information than any of us do, and he didn't pull the trigger on Taveras or someone like Daniel Cabrera. He did on Colon. It will be interesting to see how that low-risk gamble, and especially the ones made by the Red Sox, work out over the course of the season vis a vis the throw money at the problem approach of the Yankees. Every team in baseball has to be counting their lucky stars they are not in the position of the Blue Jays or Orioles. Every division looks to be wide open in baseball, except for the AL East and NL Central. Ninth, KW knows he has a lot on the line this season. He's making a huge bet that we can be competitive this season and that this will be the "bridge" year to get us to the "future" teams of 2010 and beyond. Historically, he has taken the approach of trying to put together a team capable of competing for the World Series every season. This has been the first season (because of payroll, aging roster and the economy) that he's taken a very different approach than in the past. But NEVER, EVER think that means he has given up on this season. Ozzie and KW are both too competitive and prideful to go through another 2007. Everyone in baseball knows the AL Central can be won by any of the teams (even the Royals, although that's a tougher argument), and the White Sox are the team best-positioned of any in the division to make a move at the break. The Twins are bound financially by two things...a new contract for Mauer or losing their "hometown hero" in the near future and massive club expenses with the building of the new stadium that will hold their payroll down. They also have one of the most talented players in baseball that nobody wants on their team (especially Gardenhire), and that is Delmon Young. Hopefully he will be traded before he can mature (if that happens) and destroy the rest of the division offensively. We dodged a bullet with David Ortiz, here's hoping Gardenhire gets his way (as with Garza) and Young is also traded. Tenth, KW also knows he's not going anywhere, and even another 2007 won't put his job at risk. It will be only after two seasons like 2007 in a row (09/10) that KW would be close to being on the "hot seat," and that would be more with the local media than JR. I also think it would be inevitable that Ozzie would do something crazy and be forced to resign, but I don't expect anything but a .500 team this year and a 90 win team in 2010 and beyond. We've had the best team in baseball at various points of the 2000, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2008 seasons. I think KW has done a tremendous job fielding consistently competitive teams over the decade, although one could certainly argue the Twins have been more effective from a payroll/development and Division championships perspective. It's hard not to forget how close it was to 5 for the Twins (2002-2004, 2006, 2008) and just 2 (2000, 2005) for the Sox instead of 4 and 3. Big difference psychologically. Eleventh, our bench promises to be deeper and better than 2008: Hall's overbloated contract and inept arm is gone, Betemit provides a lot of versatility (I consider Uribe more of a starter than bench player last year), Anderson/Owens/Wise and then Lillibrige/Getz gives us an interesting player off the bench (especially Lillibridge) that we've been lacking since we let Ozuna go. Yes, you can argue that the catching position MIGHT be weaker, but it certainly won't be in 2010 and beyond.

Well, it certainly would explain the deterioration in his physical skills at the end of his career. Wonder if they will have to start doing mandatory HIV/AIDS testing before trades are completed now? That certainly would have been a possible criteria for rejecting the trade, not unlike (but certainly different) from Rocco Baldelli's health situation. I wonder how (if at all) this will affect his HOF credentials...if it is proven he knowingly/intentionally gave AIDS to someone else? I mean, as if Alex Rodriguez didn't case enough problems..well, this is just totally weird, like the Michael Vick herpes thing. In April 2005, Alomar told Dall he was suffering from erectile dysfunction and confided "he was raped by two Mexican men after playing a ballgame in New Mexico or a Southwestern state when he was 17," the suit says.

Well, then at least you have to give them credit for that...at least. I mean, everyone can predict year after year after year the Royals are going to be an 80-85 win team, but it hasn't happened yet. Maybe this will be the year and they will actually get it right...I guess I look at it like trading programs meant to beat indexed mutual funds. 85% of the time, the computer programs are wrong, but when they're correct, they're spectacularly correct and everyone tends to defer TOO much to these predictive validity models. The problem is that these models overrate the Javier Vazquezes and Nick Swishers to the point where there is a disconnect from the reality of constructing a REAL baseball team.

Josh Fields is to 2B as Carlos Lee/Konerko were to 3B...except worse.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 10, 2009 -> 05:37 PM) I imagine that means they've missed by 55 games over 5 years, so we are looking at a 14 game difference, which means the Sox would win 87-88 games. Not a good enough reason to conclude that they'll be contenders, but it's something to chew on all the same. Considering they were EXACTLY right (or close) only once, in 2007....this number would mean they've been incorrect by an average of 13.5 games per season. That's simply ridiculous as a predictive model. I wonder where they had the Rays coming into last season? BTW, what were their projections for 2004 and 2006 again? I can't imagine how they were so far off with those years. As the earlier post pointed out: 1) There's no consideration for what Viciedo, Marquez, Colon, etc., will contribute 2) Predicting Nix and Wise to be actual starters not only serves their model to give the lowest VORP numbers, it's also the most unlikely scenario 3) Beckham hasn't been considered at all as a factor 4) Contreras might not even pitch this year if he has another relapse...but I think he's like to be either really good or really terrible, but quite unpredictable Also, thinking the Alex Gordon or Billy Butler are anywhere near the class of Carlos Quentin based on their MLB results in 2008 is just grasping for straws...are they going by what the scouts projected when they were drafted or in the minors, or actual results? Yes, Butler's a good hitter....but he has yet to evolve into another more than a gap hitter with an occasional homer (long gone) and he has ZERO positions on the field, he's the definition of a DH. He's like a cross between Ross Gload and Shawn Abner/Matt Merullo.

That might be another candidate for post the of the new year so far! If KW wasn't a jerk...although I'm not sure where the eating part for the fans comes into it.

Isn't that a Mennonite school? Does it count if I dated a girl that went to school there 10 years ago...lol?

QUOTE (Texsox @ Feb 9, 2009 -> 12:56 PM) That makes so much sense. So then would it also make sense that payroll dollars that are spent on the lower level employees is more beneficial than payroll dollars spent on executives. And further, dollars saved at the executive level at banks, if not spent on lower level employees, could they be used as loan capital? I'm starting to like the executive cap more and more. http://www.newser.com/story/50001/skirting...ce-of-cake.html

But can you EVER imagine having an MLB team in Caracas or Venezuela while Chavez is the leader? I don't think so. It would be interesting to have that MLB South though.....Mexico City, Cuba/Havana, San Juan...Santo Domingo would be really, really pushing it. Could Mexico support/sustain two teams? It would have to be Guadalajara, Monterrey or Juarez/El Paso (which currently has a pretty successful AA Texas League franchise). On the Colombian north shore, you have Cartagena and Baranquilla...those cities are pretty baseball crazy. It would be a real challenge to come up with more than 4. Mexico City Cuba/Havana Caracas San Juan (maybe) Monterrey or Guadalajara (doubtful) Panama City (Mariano Rivera and Carlos Lee) Cartagena/Baranquilla (Renteria/Cabrera)

QUOTE (RibbieRubarb @ Feb 9, 2009 -> 12:36 PM) No, it's a real fan who understands economics and the reality of baseball. Then he should be working in DC or NYC right now because it doesn't seem that anyone understands economics fully these days. Or figuring out how to revive the dying RV production market in Elkhart/Goshen, Indiana. Talk about the wrong industry to be in now.

Maybe because it had the same director? Sam Mendes wasn't sure about making basically another version...of course, Kate Winslet is his wife, and she pushed the project along and helped with bringing DiCaprio into the project as well.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxfan1986 @ Feb 8, 2009 -> 10:02 PM) I would be suprised if Pujols WASN'T a juicer. He was just a 13th round draft pick in 1999. Played in Low-A ball in 2000, had a good year (.314, 19, 96), but you don't go straight from Low-A to having an MVP caliber season in 2001. I also wouldn't be shocked at all if Thome was a roider. People say he's a nice guy, but they say the same about Luis Gonzalez, and he's one of the more obvious roiders. Two other guys from the era who i'm pretty sure were on the juice are Shawn Green and Jay Bell. Brady Anderson was another of those guys who just shot up one year to 49 home runs...Luis Gonzalez was a borderline 4th/5th outfielder and then his career really took off, mysteriously. Shawn Green was always pretty thin-framed, I don't remember him looking abnormal or huge compared to when he started with the Jays. In fact, he was a much better player when he was younger and then seriously regressed in his 30's, the opposite for most of those guys like McGwire, Bonds and Sosa who get better in their 30's, in terms of their power numbers. Thome and M. Ramirez have never had "chiseled" frames...that might be another reason they've escaped scrutiny. If they looked like Gabe Kapler (who has the frame/cut of a bodybuilder but was never a true power hitter), then there would be a lot more suspicion. You have to think that taking steroids really had an affect on Juan Gonzalez's physique as well.

The main argument out there is the assertion that the Sox made a profit of $70 million from 2005-2008. I think if people didn't have that in their heads, they wouldn't be so upset...and the prices for most franchises keep appreciating (even in this market), so the average fan always feels like the owners of their teams have to spend wildly like Steinbrenner or Cuban or they're not "good" owners who care the most about their team winning.

QUOTE (LosMediasBlancas @ Feb 8, 2009 -> 02:06 AM) Just got back from watching 'Doubt' and I think it's over rated. Streep is solid and the film overall is good. The woman who plays the boy's Mom completely stole the show in the 10 minutes that she's on screen. She is brilliant. Viola Davis...