caulfield12

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:51 PM) What does that have to do with the law of averages? Its pure statistical fact that the twins are above the mean with RISP. Simple, there have been plenty of analyses done over the last 10-15 years showing how many times team from the bottom and 3rd quartile have made the playoffs in MLB. The odds aren't very high. Beyond the Marlins, A's and Twins, it hasn't happened at all. That also is a statistical fact. Payroll doesn't guarantee the Yankees a championship, or the Dodgers, or the Mets, but it doesn't give them an exponentially BETTER opportunity to make it.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:47 PM) Really Danks, Juan Castro? Here we go again...thanks, Danks. Where is everyone around here, watching the DNC, lol?

QUOTE (Paint it Black @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:42 PM) The Twins are good, but c'mon. Baseball logic tells you they won't hit above .300 with RISP. Baseball logic also tells you that teams with middle or lower-tier payrolls in small markets shouldn't win 5 of 7 division championships against big-market teams like Chicago and Detroit. Heck, CLE was a "big market" team in the way they operated until Dolan took over. Four consecutive fastballs to a .181 hitter at 90-91 mph. The announcers for BALT claimed they could hit one at the batting cage if they just kept seeing fastball after fastball at the same speed, lol.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:40 PM) How well did Uribe hit that ball? Routine. Where are the Uribe haters, lol? I have a hard time imagining they would walk Swisher to face Crede, lol. Maybe, anything's possible. It is also possible the Red Sox could overtake the Rays and they could fall back to the Sox and Twins.

QUOTE (SoxFanForever @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:16 PM) Athleticism is great. However, so is production. Our left fielder has more home runs than all 4 of those outfielders combined and almost has more RBI than 3 of them combined. Let's not take a dump on our guys. I didn't say anything about our outfield, Quentin's obviously a good athlete and Dye one was. It's simply that the Twins have a knack for making the huge plays when they really need them to stay within hailing distance of the Sox. Just when you think the White Sox might have turned the corner and could put the Twins in the rearview mirror, they reverse the momentum on us. Who knows, maybe Cleveland will go on a 40-1 run, lol. We can cite the numbers of Ordonez, Thomas, Lee, Valentin, etc., and production from 2001-2004 and what did that get the Sox? The Twins are always better than the sum of all their individual parts, the White Sox seem to be better on paper/statistically/talent-wise and yet the Twins play better as a team.

The baseball gods I think are against the Sox today. The rule that says don't assume you get an automatic win with your best pitcher when the guy has a 7+ ERA. Konerko's bat-speed and confidence are coming back, 94 MPH fastball turned around quickly. At any rate, the M's starter had an ERA close to 8 and held the Twins to only 3 runs in 7 IP. So, for some reason, I'm not EXPECTING the White Sox to destroy Liz like they should.

If the Twins get into the playoffs and we don't, I'm going to blame Denard Span. Of course, the guy's a rookie, so we have to deal with him for five more years at least. Why is it that the Twins always seem to have a boatload of athletic outfielders? First, there was Shannon Stewart, Hunter and J. Jones. Now, they have D. Young, Span, Carlos Gomez, Kubel and Cuddyer.

QUOTE (WilliamTell @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:05 PM) game over, 6-5. That was a bad 3-0 pitch for Ibanez to be swinging at, low and away. I was really hoping Beltre would get another chance to hit a walk-off homer, for the second consecutive day. Ibanez is now 0 for 6 lifetime against Nathan, but I suppose it was a good chance that he might hit another homer...but he should have laid off of the pitch if it wasn't in his wheelhouse.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 04:51 PM) Pinch runner thrown out at home by Span to end the inning....still 6-5 twins going into the 9th Span is doing everything for them! Ironic, the PR was former White Sox infielder Tim Hulett's son Tug who was thrown out at the plate. Unfortunately, it wasn't Rodney McCray or Usain Bolt's son that was running for the M's.

He won the game out there last time by taking a home run away with a leaping catch of a Beltre blast to RF that would have been a go-ahead homer. Now he's shifted the momentum again (both times after two losses by the Twins) and I think the Twins will go on to win this game now. That guy is so much better that Cuddyer defensively, it's incredible. Well, at least the line-up is turned over and Ichiro will leadoff against Nathan to start the bottom of the 9th. Wish the Mariners wouldn't have used Green in the 8th. He has been HORRIBLE/TERRIBLE/Boone Logan-esque the 2nd half this season.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...sp&c_id=mlb Boras strikes again. I can't say that I am surprised, but all this drama over $200,000 out of a $6 million contract. The time lost this season will hurt him a lot with the Pirates' FO, and the fans will take a while to warm up to such tactics, as they've been bad for so long in PITT, they can get used to almost anything happening now to their team.

I suppose stranger things have happened. You're right, there's not much of a difference between 11.5 and 9 games back. However, the composition (especially rotation-wise) and the depth of the offensive production are very different compared to 2005. I will say this, if I was an Indians' fan, it would drive me nuts to keep coming up short when arguably they had the teams to make the playoffs in 2005, 2006 and now this season. How nervous do you think Shapiro is that the Indians will get even closer and it will start getting argued that they would have made the playoffs based on CC Sabathia's Milwaukee results, along with having Byrd and Blake on the team?

QUOTE (RME JICO @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 11:07 AM) Cleveland also has a very easy schedule until September 15th. They have 7 against KC, 4 against BAL, and 3 against SEA during that span. The only team with a winning record that they play is us for 3. They may be a lot closer in the division around the 15th. Well, at least the Twins have 3 games AT Cleveland and not at home, if that's any small comfort? With Sabathia, they're not quite as scary. Of course, you don't ever want to face Lee or Carmona when they're dealing. I just don't see any realistic way they can get back in it from where they're at without CC and Byrd in the rotation...not to mention they dealt Blake, too.

Saw where Roberts, Mora and Huff all cleared waivers. I guess it would have been hard to take on Roberts this year (we would have had to give up Poreda for sure, and more), because then you have to move Ramirez to SS or DH Roberts and take Thome out of the line-up. However, he would be nice to have NEXT year. But it would be a tremendously expensive (like the Swisher deal) trade for the White Sox in terms of future talent.

It is funny. The Twins' fans are always mentioning Quentin, Dye, Thome, etc., hitting so many home runs...how they really lack that true power hitter in the middle of the line-up, with Mauer being a great "pure" doubles hitter and Morneau a great "rbi" guy but perhaps not a consistent 30-40 homer player. I did see an interesting statistic, I think out of their last 2-3 weeks of games, they had only had one that was decided by more than 2 runs either way. This bodes well for the White Sox, because their hot hitting with RISP and their bullpen are two big factors in winning the close games. Both have been failing them (or at least inconsistent) for the better part of 3 weeks now. White Sox fans say similar things.... 1) We can't hit lefties, rookies or no-name junk/garbage pitchers 2) Ozzie plays the bench too much (haven't heard that much this year!) 3) Ozzie, like Gardenhire according to Twins' fans, plays favorites too much (or turns on players that don't seem to fit the Twins' mold, like Lamb, who was just released)...the Twins have actually wasted quite a bit of money on Lamb, Craig Monroe, Juan Rincon, Livan Hernandez, etc. It's not like the Twins' GM to waste $15 million dollars of a fairly low payroll 4) White Sox play dumb baseball 5) Our fifth starter sucks 6) Griffey/Konerko/Cabrera/Swisher suck to varying degrees 7) Why doesn't KW get more help for the bullpen 8) We're too slow, too old, can't bunt, can't advance runners, can't create or manufacture runs, hit too many homers, etc.

Heard an interesting rumor that Minnesota blocked a trade that we wanted to make for LHP Alan Embree (former Sox pitcher, most connected to the Indians)...interesting. Not sure if we had a chance at blocking them in return when the issue of Guardado came up, probably the Twins were behind us at the time and so would have had the chance to make the claim before the Sox. The Twins' problem isn't "loogys" Reyes/Breslow (both have been quite solid), as apparently the plan is for Guardado to become their primary 8th inning set-up man for Nathan in light of Crain's and Guerrier's recent struggles.

I saw in the Tribune that Poreda and Beckham were going. Any word on the four others (2 pitchers/2 position players)? Maybe this was mentioned at SoxTalk, although it seems like it is more of a minor league topic to me.

I don't have a strong feeling either way. For the last couple of months, the division has been up for grabs and neither the Twins or the Sox have been able to get any breathing room. Whatever happens, I think both teams would be well-prepared (like in 2005) for hitting the playoffs running. Teams like Anaheim or the 2001 Mariners have typically had more difficult times "turning it on" when they've had comfortable division leads for months and nothing really to play for but home field advantage. The White Sox obviously have the best chance to go far in the playoffs if the timing is right, but it's hard to argue against the Twins from a logic standpoint, because they always seem to defy it. Even when the Twins have been losing recently, their pitching has almost always kept them in games or given the bullpen the lead. Thankfully, our starting pitching has picked it up a notch or two the last couple of weeks. Things were looking bleak...like 2nd half 2006 all over again. It has been a fun ride so far this season, we'll just have to wait and see what happens. The skeptic in me says Twins, but I'll try to remain optimistic. However, listening to Coop talk about Linebrink on the pre-game show yesterday, I just don't get the feeling there is a tremendous amount of confidence he can make it back and be an effective/reliable contributor. Which means we're left relying on Carrasco and hoping Dotel can get the ship righted and that Thornton and Jenks don't break down from overuse the final month. You know Ozzie will be tempted to start going to Jenks earlier and earlier. Fortunately, the Twins have the same exact problems with Cain, Guerrier, Reyes and Guardado.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 02:07 AM) Liriano better find some better stuff; he'll walk through these lineups with absolutely no power, but teams that actually hit power pitchers - ala the Sox - could destroy him. Since coming back, he's faced the M's twice, the A's, the Royals, and the Indians. The M's, A's, and Royals are the 3 worst offenses in the AL and the Indians are a middle of the pack offensive squad. He just doesn't look as good as he did in 2006 and I didn't see anything in his stuff that screamed "ace." If anything, it looks like he's being helped by his reputation, his delivery, and gutsiness or guile or craftiness...he's not the same pitcher he was, and even though he has a 1.21 ERA since coming up, I see that going way, way up. He's still a good pitcher but I just don't see his spot in the rotation being the automatic victory that it has been since forever. In their lineup tonight, the M's had Betancourt, Balentien, Johjima, Burke, and Cairo; all 5 players have OPS's under .650. In all honesty, there might be guys on this board who could get some of those guys out, so Liriano should be able to do that as well. It was interesting to see Steady Eddie come back and pitch a perfect 8th. Amazing, the M's have handed two blown saves to Nathan at Safeco in the span of 3 weeks. How many times have we come back to beat Joe since he's been the closer? Once? Twice? I remember one game I think we tied it off him but lost it again somehow? Would have been amusing if they had been successful in getting Hawkins, too. As far as Liriano goes, the Indians' offense right now would be a good test for him again. Unfortunately, the Twins schedule from here on out is as bereft of home games as it is quality opponents. I do have hope for this reason, sometimes youngsters coming up in September for doormats can make huge impacts on the race, because they have a lot of motivation to play as well as possible against the best teams in the league...to prove something to their managers for 2009. We've managed to get 3 wins in a row from the fifth starter's spot. I don't think anyone would have predicted that when Jose went down against BOS. The Mariners really made me nervous...Lopez messed up two bunt attempts (he was the one that broke through against Nathan to give MIN the lead previously) and then fouled off about 5 pitches and hit a ball where it should have been a disaster (pulled to left side instead of pushing to 2nd) but Beltre did the ole Bartlett trick and screened Punto from the ball in the hole. Then Clement hit into a DP, but scored the tying run. Worst of all, then HOF announcer Dave Niehaus said "RA Dickey will come in for Putz next inning and I about lost my breakfast (it was morning in Thailand time)!!!" But he got out of the subsequent inning 1-2-3. Two things, Crain's definitely not going to pitch for at least one game (of course, we might have to use Thornton or Dotel as closer tomorrow...or even Carrasco)...and any day when Clayton Richard and Liriano both start and we don't lose ground, that's a net positive, although a QUentin HR to end the first game would have been sweet. Probably would have gone out in Comiskey. Oh, well. Now the only thing we have to worry about is who is going to close tomorrow, if we get into that position. And the Twins have now lost 3 in a row and maybe a few doubts (after losing 3 of their last 4 in Seattle) are starting to creep into their heads. (Of course, I said that after the M's won the first two out there 3 weeks ago and MIN responded with a fury).

QUOTE (stretchstretch @ Aug 25, 2008 -> 06:12 PM) I truly believe once they leave that dome, they become just another low budget team trying to compete. W/o the ability to tailor their offense to a unique park, they'll be forced to play the same game as other teams and slap hits will not be able to help their young pitchers rack up huge home numbers. I would almost guarantee we're seeing the last of the twins threat this season. Put them in a place like the cell and their offense becomes half as effective......in a year like this one, I'd count them for 6-7 fewer wins than they have right now.....imagine us having a 7 game lead right now??? 1) I think they will tailor their park to their left-handed power, Mauer/Morneau/Kubel/Young. 2) There's no reason to believe they won't be extremely competitive the next 3-5 seasons. As long as they keep their foundation (Liriano, Nathan, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel/Cuddyer, Span/Gomez) together, then they should be set. 3) There will be a tremendous amount of pressure on the Pohlad family to spend a little more money and support the GM as they move into a new stadium. They managed to survive losses like Radke, David Ortiz, AJ, Hunter and Santana, there's no reason to think they will be any less competitive, because their "system" won't change in the least. Speed. Fundamentals/execution. Team Concept. Defense. Strong pitching. 4) They will start play there beginning in 2010. As long as they're in the Dome, they're incredibly formidable. (See 1987/91)

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 25, 2008 -> 03:38 PM) never in my wildest dreams would I ever compare Perkins and Danks. Not even last year. Perkins has a pretty solid fastball and that's about it. He gets by with location and junk. Danks is a power pitcher, and while I feared what would become of him this year, he has proven me wrong and is a fantastic pitcher. A very good fastball, changeup, curve, and cutter...I'd say that Danks is more comparable to Liriano than he is Perkins (whereas Buehrle is more comparable to Perkins than he is Liriano). When I saw Danks last year, he was throwing 88-91 and wasn't missing many bats. I guess time will tell who he ends up being more like...Perkins has to have something going for him, I think he still has an ERA right at or just below 4. Liriano's not Liriano anymore. I don't think he will ever be able to throw that devastating slider that was the second most effective pitch in baseball to Mariano Rivera's cutter when he was in his prime.

QUOTE (RME JICO @ Aug 25, 2008 -> 11:44 AM) With 5 very young pitchers, it is hard not to believe that 1 or 2 of them will start to drop off performance-wise this late in the season. It is just the nature of the game. It happened to Danks last year, and the Sox were not even in the race. I know Danks wasn't really known as a power pitcher last year...although he's raised his velocity this year a bit. Danks I guess is most similar to Perkins, who came off an injury/DL appearance in the last couple of seasons and hasn't been consistently pitching 175-200 IP (or close) over the last 3 seasons. Baker and Slowey are very solid, and the Maddux comparisons are starting to become more relevant for Slowey with each start. If there's a concern, it's with Blackburn/Perkins and then Liriano, because you never know what will happen to that elbow. He's going for 15 in a row today.

QUOTE (Felix @ Aug 25, 2008 -> 10:49 AM) He has 23 walks in 7 starts (34 innings). Probably not the best example there. He's given up only 10 in the last 23.6 IP. He had 13 walks in his first 10, when he wasn't ready coming off surgery. The guy has won 14 games in a row between Rochester and the majors. And that's only with a 89-92 MPH fastball and low 80's slider, compared to his mid-90's fastball and upper 80's, low 90's slider two seasons ago.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ap8K...o&type=lgns Great article. Maybe this is as close as we get to the Twins' version of "Moneyball." http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/byteam?c...08&sort=816 Twins are 30+ walks fewer than the rest of MLB. Actually, the White Sox aren't so bad, either. We're 4th in the majors, 49 behind Minnesota (0.4, less than half a walk per game difference). Top Sox minor leaguers in the BB/9 IP category 1. Richard, Clayton (0.82 AAA/1.72 AA) 2. Poreda, Aaron (2.31 AA/2.21 A) 3. Egbert, Jack (2.51) 4. Torres (2.58) 5. Harrell (2.59) 6. Broadway (2.73) 7. Whisler (2.74) 8. Cassel (2.89) 9. McCulloch (3.55) 10. Haeger (4.13) Kannapolis starters... Anthony Carter, 1.61 Shirek, 1.89 Maxwell, 2.12

From "Print your playoff tickets" to "This team can't do anything right"... ...we've come a long ways in four days. It's hilarious to see the polarity within these comment boards on a daily basis. After the first two games there were parade routes being planned, Wheaties boxes being printed, and new banners being hung aloft the glorious teflon of the Dome...And now after the last two, people are burning relievers in effigy, rioting and pillaging the front office, and replaying their 87' and 91' Series VHS cassettes over and over in solitude hoping to forget all they have witnessed this past Saturday and Sunday. This is late season baseball folks and there's certain to be more drama from here on out so take the good and the bad with a sense of rationality and enjoy the ride." 1) Twins' fans hate their bullpen (particularly Bonser, Bass, Crain and Guerrier) now more than we do...with Logan, Dotel, etc. 2) As much as we were aggravated with Torii Hunter and Jason Bartlett this week, Twins fans are more aggravated with AJ (Arrogant Jerk) Pierzynski 3) Some Twins' actually think/believe/argue that our bullpen is better than theirs 4) As much as KW is under fire here...Bill Smith is more under fire for BS (Blowing Smoke) and not doing anything to improve the Twins' bullpen or add another middle-of-the-order bat. 5) They really have divided opinions on Punto, D. Young and Carlos Gomez. 6) A minority of Twins' fans consider there to be a league-wide bias (at MLB HQ, Madison Avenue, ESPN and in the umpires' rooms) to prevent the Twins from getting to the playoffs for the 5th time in 7 years 7) They spend about 80-90% of the time discussing 7th and 8th inning set-up/bullpen issues, just like we do now