caulfield12

Then Danks and Floyd and Quentin and Ramirez are also anomalies. Look at Sandy Koufax...he struggled for a long time and then the lights just came on one day, or Randy Johnson. Nolan Ryan? Everyone knew they had the stuff..it was just a matter of execution and putting it all together. You have to be willing to believe that pitchers don't "progress" as they get older, especially a pitcher who started his major league career with on-the-job training in his teens. Granted, he could end up like Jon Garland and just be a decent or "average" 4/5 starter...but Garland doesn't have nearly the type of stuff that Jackson has. Or how do you explain someone like Matt Thornton's career path? Bobby Jenks? If there weren't "anomalies," and everything was predictable, there would be no need to even play the games...they could all be simulated and predicted with 100% accuracy.

QUOTE (Palehosefan @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 11:12 PM) OU. Those ethics apparently went out the window with the paid players "working" at the car dealership. Well, Kirk Ferentz is one of the most principled (and loved by most Hawkeye fans) and respected coaches in the college game today and look at the off-field problems that have developed over the last 18 months. Even Ferentz was accused of helping to facilitate a cover-up in a campus rape case. When you have so many huge egos, so many boosters with huge egos that want to get close to the program...you just can't control and monitor every single thing each player does 24 hours per day (well, the Internet now can do that, with all the digicams and cell phone cameras out there). Look at all the things that have gone down with the PSU football program over the past five years, is Paterno now a "corrupt" coach? I don't think so. It's just symptomatic of the times we live in. Bomar made a mistake, obviously, but there's a big leap to "lack of institutional" control compared to when Buster Rhymes was running around with an Uzi or AK-47 on campus...or the Brian Bosworth years.

QUOTE (Swingandalongonetoleft @ Nov 30, 2008 -> 12:48 AM) I don't want this man on the team next year. Once again, WHO do you want, and what are you willing to give up to get him? (And not one of those "five for one" trades with five random second and third tier AA and AAA suspects like Broadway, McCulloch and Logan) Yeah, in a fantasy world, we can trade Dye for Matt Kemp or Jenks for Nate McLouth, but that's not reality by any stretch of the imagination.

QUOTE (KevinM @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 11:50 PM) http://www.hcs.harvard.edu/~mbodell/battingOrder2001.html http://books.google.com/books?id=uxdvwQdXb...7&ct=result Of course, there is a difference between the optimal lineup and the worst lineup possible, but the difference between lineup a vs. c is minimal. But minimal is the difference of 10-15 wins or losses every season...the little things. If you have the wrong batter behind a slow runner, then it takes 2-3 hits to score him instead of just one. That's just one of many reasons why batting order is important. Or if you have a leadoff hitter getting into scoring position via the steal, not every batter in the line-up has an equal ability to bunt, hit to the opposite side to advance him or hit a sacrifice fly. I'm sure research would argue that you could just take ANY reliever in the bullpen and stick him out there in the 9th inning. That any major league pitcher should be able to protect 1-3 run leads at a minimum of 66% of the time. It looks that way on paper, until you see so many pitchers thrust into the closer's role fail miserably. That same pitcher (say Linebrink, Dotel or Thornton), might have the greatest looking statistics in the world, but when you see him out there protecting a one run lead, you know he doesn't have a chance. He's already defeated mentally.

"Perhaps it’s possible that Jackson simply focuses better in important situations, allowing him to pitch better with runners on base. I am skeptical of this proposition in general, but I allow that it’s possible.. " Well, I don't think this guy has ever seen Javier Vazquez or Mark Buerhle pitch, because there's a difference between pitchers who can get out of jams, pitch around errors and leave the bases loaded and those who can't. I'm sure there is absolutely nothing in Gavin Floyd's or Danks' stats that would have predicted their success this year in leaving runners stranded. Simply, the author doesn't really allow for the proposition that a pitcher might gain more confidence and "bear down" in situation where a mistake means multiple runs for the opposition. Success builds upon success. Confidence changes the arsenal of a pitcher, look no farther than Cliff Lee or Jon Danks for confirmation. From watching Mark Buehrle throughout his entire career, I don't buy this argument. And it would be VERY VERY difficult to prove statistically. It's just a supposition or theory. I prefer to trust me "eyes" from watching the games, rather than what the stats will say the next day.

What study is this? Please show a link or resource to this "research." Doesn't it make sense to you that you want your top four hitters to get more at-bats than your 7-8-9 hitters? That batting in the earlier spots in the order will give them an additional 50-75 opportunities per season, maybe even 100 for a leadoff hitter. Why doesn't Ichiro hit 9th for the Mariners then, if it doesn't matter? Why do managers have a L-R-L run or a R-L-R run to keep opposing managers from sticking with a lefty reliever or specialist for too long late in the games? I'm kind of speechless here. I'm glad you aren't/weren't a manager, we might have had Mark Johnson leading off, followed by Royce Clayton. What next? There should be no such thing as starting pitchers? Every starter should be designed for one inning each game and pitch 6-7 times per week???

QUOTE (Palehosefan @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 11:03 PM) Sometimes life just sucks. Tech 11-1, ranked in the top 7, won't be in a BCS game. A program built on cheating is going to be playing for the national title game. Joy. Are you referring to Oklahoma or Alabama here? I'm confused. Say what you want about OU's past under Switzer or Kelvin Sampson, Stoops is regarded as a highly ethical (if not overcontrolling) head coach.

QUOTE (Shadows @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 10:58 PM) Impossible IMO Once Florida beats Alabama in the SEC Title Game, they are going to pass up whoever doesn't go to the BIG 12 title game anyways.. And if Alabama wins, its gonna be whoever wins the Big 12 title game unless that team loses to Missouri which could leave the door open for the team who DIDN'T make the Big 12 title game.. Instead of making this a ridiculous scenario, lets just hop the computers get it right and we end up seeing Florida VS Oklahoma in what should be a fantastic game to watch.. BUT, BUT, BUT if Alabama does manage to somehow beat Florida...OU/TX barely win or lose against Missouri...then that opens up the door for arguments from Utah, USC and the team that didn't play (OU/TX) in the B12 championship (no, I won't enter Boise State or any Big 10 team into discussion). Of course, OSU getting ripped by UO makes the USC loss to them even more damaging...

UT's opponents overall record is 85-59 with 4 ranked (or were ranked) opponents. Tech's opponents record is 80-63 with 4 ranked opponents (or were ranked) OU's opponents record is 80-64 with 6 ranked opponents (Cincy wasnt but is now). You do the math. They also beat #16 Kansas 45-31. Their average over the last five games is 62.4 points per game. ONCE AGAIN, THEIR AVERAGE OVER THEIR LAST FIVE B12 GAMES is 62.4 POINTS PER GAME.

For the Bob Abreu of five years ago, maybe. The whole point of trading Dye was getting younger/faster/payroll flexibility, not going out and trading for someone "older" who's MORE expensive. This is the type of signing KW will never, ever make IMO. Not now for Abreu....too late. He's not the same player he once was. He's not as fast as he used to be either. I don't think either Danks or Shelby are being looked at as RFers. Viciedo, from everything we've seen and heard, would be a better fit for RF than either of those guys. Danks is a CFer and Shelby doesn't really have a position where he's a "plus" defender, at least as of yet, and maybe ever.

QUOTE (KevinM @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 10:32 PM) I honestly don't really care who leads off, it's completely arbitrary. And yes, Anderson is a very, very good defensive player. The only people who believe Anderson and Rowand are on similar levels defensively need their eyes checked; just because people were overzealous and misguided in their judgments with Rowand doesn't diminish Anderson's value. In terms of in house options, I guess I really wouldn't care if it's Getz or Ramirez. Also, I really wouldn't impugn anyone's walk rate if I was you, considering you're campaigning for Willy Taveras. You really believe Chris Getz is not only ready to play everyday, but that an untested rookie who many consider will end up as utility player/supersub can legitimately hit leadoff and not sink the entire offense in the process? Well, by the Powers of Caruso, I hope that gamble works, because the one with Swisher, a "tested," veteran player, sure didn't work out so well.

While we're at it, sign Thome to an extension for his homer against the Twins, rip up Danks' contracts and give him more money and bring back Willie Harris (he got on base so Dye could drive him in!!!) and Geoff Blum. While I'm in a giving mood, let's give Contreras another two years because he was the best pitcher in baseball from August 05 through May 06.

But that's not factoring in increases for the likes of Quentin, Danks, Jenks, Floyd, etc., as they reach years 4-6 and start making bigger salaries through arbitration. It's also not taking into account Viciedo's contract yet, is it? I can see mid-60's, but not reaching down into the 50's in any possible scenario. I also think if Alexei Ramirez has another year like 2008, KW might try to negotiate an extension and pay him a much "fairer" salary to control his rights an additional two seasons. As far as Sheets goes, I think he will get a guaranteed three seasons, and maybe even four, from some team out there that misses on Sabathia/Burnett/Lowe and is left deciding to offer Sheets big money or go with Wolf/Perez/Garland, moves that wouldn't excite many fanbases but which cost MINIMUM Kyle Lohse money and probably closer to $11.5-13.5 million per season.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 04:18 PM) I just tried to think of the last White Sox prospect that became anything more than adequate in the majors on any team. It's hard to come up with many. Buehrle, Crede and Rowand are basically it. The generation before, you have Durham/Ordonez/Carlos Lee. Of course, we've "incubated" quite a few pitchers like Daniel Cortes, Brandon McCarthy, Josh Rupe, Gio Gonzalez...also Kip Wells, Matt Guerrier (who has really found success as a middle reliever and set up guy), Josh Fogg and Jon Rauch. Jon Garland, even though he was drafted by the Cubs. Gary Majewski and Rocky Biddle had their moments. Danny Wright was promising before injuries derailed his career, just like Jason Bere. Frank Francisco was Sox property before he was part of the package for Carl Everett. OF Chris B. Young is another obvious name that jumps out. Ryan Sweeney.

I think you guys are on crack cocaine. Elite defensive player? I heard the same things about Aaron Rowand, too. Anderson is a better overall defender, but "elite" is not a word I throw around very lightly. If Anderson does start, who in God's name is going to hit leadoff? Alexei Ramirez with his Soriano-esque approach to the walk? Chris Getz/Betemit/Nix? I'll survive with BA as a starter, just to end this argument about his perceived greatness once and for all...but that means we have to go out and acquire Hudson, Roberts or Grudzielanek. There's no way you can have Anderson, Ramirez or Getz/Betemit as your leadoff hitters.

Watching (so to speak) on the Internet, it's like a freaking pinball game. I turned away from the computer for one second....OSU has a return for a touchdown. Bradford's rolling up and down the field like German Panzer tanks through Poland. With all the hype coming into today, most of the games were very boring, with the exceptions of GA/GT and KS/Missouri. I guess this game, if OU wins it, will leave a strong final impression in Bradford's favor...if only the OU defense can get a stop. It's going to be interesting to see which Missouri team shows up next week for the B12 Championship game. Start your arguments here....Texas or Oklahoma? My dad went to OU, so I'm not unbiased. I'm just happy because my Hawkeyes righted their sinking ship and OU got back into the NC picture after losing to TX. But I'm still not counting my chickens until they beat Missouri. I think there are still some scenarios where OU and TEX could play in the NC game if the other team made the champ. game and lost or didn't look very convincing in winning, correct?

Cricket players Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel, whom the Pirates signed as pitchers after they appeared on reality TV in India, were recommended by scout Ray Poitevint, whose stay with the Sox delivered few strong prospects. … Left-hander Tyler Lumsden, the key to the 2006 deal that sent Mike MacDougal from Kansas City to the White Sox, was traded by the Royals to Houston last week, clearing roster space. Unfortunately for the Sox, right-hander Dan Cortes, a lesser piece of the deal, has evolved into one of the Royals' top prospects. … Chone Figgins might be the most overrated big-leaguer. He and the Angels' other third basemen combined for three homers and 34 RBIs, the fewest homers from a group of third basemen since the 1992 Twins and fewest RBIs since the 1988 Orioles. Figgins' best tool is his speed, but Bill James rates him as only a plus-7 baserunner, the same as Aramis Ramirez and J.D. Drew. progers/chicagotribune I don't think our payroll would possibly come close to getting in the 50's, even with Contreras and Thome gone.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 11:02 PM) A deal for Javy should also include another young arm [who has thrown 100 + innings in the bigs] who could be the 4th/ 5th starter. I think an OFer could also be had in the deal, who could compete for a spot. Quentin would probably be moved to RF, as the sox would probably want a better athlete for LF and CF. Taveras would probably be in CF. I'd deal for a vet such as Duchscherer who could be a health risk [with his hip], yet has a big upside. But who are 1) we willing to trade without hurting our core, and 2) who would BB be willing to accept....for Duchscherer? Why would you trade him, if you were Beane, unless you thought he would never be the same pitcher he has been the past couple of seasons before his injury?

QUOTE (KevinM @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 10:46 PM) This works against your point. Of course baserunning is important, but being able to run the bases well far outpaces the ability to steal bases in terms of importance. So, just to clarify, you want Brian Anderson to be the starting CFer? Owens? A platoon? Please tell us who you would acquire to play CF, if not one of the above. And what players you'd be willing to give up.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 08:41 PM) I hope so. This rumor, if it is serious, at the very least shows how much Dye with his favorable contract is worth in this market. If the Sox are really interested in Bailey then I am too, because I very much trust their judgment on other teams' pitchers. Who would be your LFer then? Wise? Viciedo? Quentin? Fields? (assuming we move Carlos over to RF is most logical, if Dye were to be traded) Would you then go out and have the confidence to deal Vazquez and go with four youngsters in the rotation? Would you sign a veteran for the 5th spot just in case, or pray that Bailey and Richard/Poreda came through?

Looks like the OU/OSU game will go down to the wire. It seems this game is always a nail-biter for the Sooners on the road, no matter what the difference in talent between the two teams happens to be...OU's defense hasn't played nearly as well as it did last week. Once again, proof that winning on the road in college football is never easy.

Doing the little things: The "2009 Bill James Handbook" is recommended reading. There's a fascinating section on baserunning, which points out the World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies ran the bases better than any other team — not because they had the fastest players, but because their players made the most of whatever speed they had. James assigns a plus-minus number based on how often players went from first to third on singles, second to home on singles and first to home on doubles, among other things. Among the Phillies' ratings were Jimmy Rollins' plus-46, Shane Victorino's plus-34, Jayson Werth's plus-28 and Chase Utley's plus-21. Compare that to these regulars with the Cubs: Kosuke Fukudome plus-25, Mark DeRosa plus-13, Alfonso Soriano plus-12, Mike Fontenot plus-12, Ryan Theriot plus-7, Aramis Ramirez plus-7, Derrek Lee minus-9 and Geovany Soto minus-9. And these with the White Sox: Brian Anderson plus-12, Carlos Quentin plus-9, Jermaine Dye plus-1, Alexei Ramirez minus-1, Paul Konerko minus-7, Jim Thome minus-13 and A.J. Pierzynski minus-18. Pierzynski is on the short list of the worst quantifiably bad baserunners in the game. His rating speaks to his lack of aggressiveness, yet he had eight baserunning outs. The only players who had as low a rating and as many such outs were Prince Fielder (minus-22, nine) and Ramon Hernandez (minus-22, nine). I'll allow Bill James to make an argument for me here (and you could make an argument for the White Sox prying away Fukodome if the Cubs will eat half his salary)...we need more players here in the plus, not negative, category. The one number that really stands out, and I'm not sure I can explain it, is how Alexei Ramirez would be behind Dye in this category. I couldn't watch any games this season at all (being out the country)...is Ramirez tentative on the bases? I've seen him a couple of times, I know he has very good speed, and is the fastest player on the White Sox, followed by Wise and Anderson. Was he held up by Cora a lot?

QUOTE (KevinM @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 07:52 PM) Not true at all actually. Owens is faster than Anderson, yet Anderson has much, much better range due to his ability to read the ball off the bat. This is true, in a sense....quickness and getting good jumps are important to playing CF. However, you need to have really great "closing speed" to get to many balls in the gaps or balls hit over your head. Anderson is very good going backwards, but not quite as good side to side. But Anderson, while he USUALLY gets good jumps (not always), doesn't have the type of first step explosiveness and speed/burst to steal bases. It takes him a little longer to get started on the basepaths.

If it comes down to fans voting for Texas over OU because TT came out today flat and uninspired, knowing their route to the B12 championship was only about a 10-25% chance after being #1 in the country and controlling their own destiny...then there's something seriously wrong with the system.

QUOTE (knightni @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 08:19 PM) The man stole 35 in the light air of Denver and was only caught once. It's really hard to breathe and run a mile in the air. IT was all caused by adrenaline rushes (see Twilight) caused by the overenthusiastic Coors Field patrons who showed up as mostly empty seats for 2/3rds of the season when the Rockies were dead in the water.