caulfield12

Can we trust Soriano's health though? We already have Dotel and Linebrink that are iffy, and speculation when/if Jenks might break down at some point. Thornton is the only pitcher in the pen who looks to have a 95% chance of NOT getting injured. I think Johnson is more likely than Escobar. I've heard Gregor Blanco's name thrown out for CF, although, like Johnson, he's not one of their TOP prospects...probably a member of the second tier. Gonzalez would be nice...does that mean we're going to re-examine trading Jenks and installing Dotel/Gonzalez/Thornton/Link as the new closer...or closer by committee approach? I think Escobar is a little ambitios if it's JUST Dye...but you add Vazquez/Jenks into the mix, then anything becomes possible. Once again with JD, a lot depends on his wilingness to stay for two years. He's a former Brave, and while he was hurt/disappointed to be traded, I don't think he would resist a trade there either, because the NL's weaker pitching would be tempting.

Well, they re-signed Cris Carpenter to that crazy deal....then watched him miss almost two full seasons. But, in general, I'd agree...the Cardinals free spending ways ended about five years ago. More recently, they've gone the Todd Wellemeyer/Kip Wells route, to mixed results.

QUOTE (SoxFan101 @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 06:13 PM) I think Cabrera gets a bad rap here that he doesnt really deserve. I personally dont know any of the ballplayers or have an inside source but atleast from looking at the clubhouse in games he seemed to fit well with the rest of the team. Yeah he had some questionable things like complaining about the error, but I think as a whole he was well liked by the team. Now if someone who is close to people on the sox or in the clubhouse says otherwise, but most of you seemingly are just assuming he is a cancer because of a few articles in the newspapers, some that werent even that bad. There were a couple of times he was stealing 3rd base in very questionable situation with Dye at the plate...one time, Dye had to be physically restrained from going after him. When there's smoke, there's fire. There were just too many times that Ozzie left Cabrera hung out to dry in the media instead of backing him up. Also, the whole thing of leaving every night from the ballpark and NEVER taking questions from reporters. That's another form of selfishness, especially after losses which he has a hand in. Quentin absolutely HATES dealing with the media, but he still manages it and always is classy in his responses.

Nothing new or interesting to report today so far...just that the "mystery" team involved with Furcal might very well be either the Indians or Twins, but there's no confirmation of that, and I think both teams will end up being outbid in the end by the Giants, Dodgers or A's, not to mention the Mets or the Cardinals.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 10:06 AM) I read an article on how arbitrators come to their decisions. Say the White Sox offered Uribe $4 million and Juan asked for $5,999,999. The arbitrator decides which figure is closer to the players worth. If he or she came to the conclusion that Uribe was a $5 million a year guy, he would get $5,999,999. If he thought he was a $4,999,999 guy, he would get $4 million. Because of this system, teams almost always have to offer a raise even if the player doesn't earn it. Cabrera will make more money in 2009 if he took arbitration than he will on the open market. While you wouldn't think he would take arbitration, there's always the possibility he thinks conditions will be better next year and take the Sox up on it. That's probably $11 or $12 million you will pay to someone you consider a cancer for a season just to gain late first round draft picks. If he's not signed by someone before the deadline, I think the White Sox will decline arb for him. I don't know...look at it from the White Sox standpoint. They could easily offer him arbitration, then automatically try to cut him down to $8-9 million. Let's say they surprised the world and offered $10 million or higher...it's not clear that Cabrera would win his case. I don't know, maybe he'll ask for $11-12.5 million per season, that's fairly realistic I suppose....but, for one, he's going to have to go through a very contentious arbitration proceeding, and all of the truly ugly things from 2008 are going to come out (and many we don't know about that were kept under wraps). Do you think he would want to go through that? MAYBE. Then you figure Furcal, at a similar age and coming off two-injured plagued seasons, is going to get something like 3 years and $39 million or 4 years and $40-45 million...I think at his age, Cabrera realizes it would be more intelligent to get the security of a 2-4 year deal than taking a risk with just a one year contract when he could get injured or any number of things could happen to lower his value going forward. The odds are very much against him significantly raising his value in 2009. You get what you pay for with Cabrera, just like Vazquez, warts and all. I just think a team like the Giants, A's (whoever loses out on Furcal), Dodgers, Twins, Tigers, Cardinals...well, there are quite a few teams out there looking for a SS, and he's the second or third best option. There might even be some teams that prefer the certainty of Cabrera at $10 million for 2-3 seasons over the larger risk, larger possible return of a Rafael Furcal signing. At least you mitigate your downside, arguably, by signing O-Cab. For these reasons, I think KW calls the bluff and goes for the arbitration offer, feeling pretty darned certain (95% chance) that Cabrera and his agent won't accept it.

QUOTE (bschmaranz @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 12:27 AM) I'm gonna agree with that. I wouldn't mind seeing Juan come back next season, but offering him arbitration could wind up quite costly. I think he'd wind up accepting it. The players win something like 80% of the cases, even a "loss" is usually a "win," and the fact that Juan was so integral to the White Sox when Crede went down in the stretch will be used as a gambit by his agent to argue that he should continue to be paid as a starter...not a utility man who will get 150-200 ab's at most. That and the fact that he started off as the team's 2B and is also the team's best defensively shortstop now...that Ramirez moving to SS might fail and they would have to play Juan again there as the starter.

Joining me here on the Peoria Javelinas from the Reds are infielders Chris Valaika and Justin Turner, pitchers Carlos Fisher, Robert Manuel, Sean Watson, and Pedro Viola, and infielder/outfielder Sean Henry. http://aflreds.mlblogs.com/ Obviously, KW loves pitchers. But Valaika is a pretty highly regard (and young) SS prospect, Henry and also CF C. Dickerson (although he will be 27 next season, maybe a late bloomer?) could figure in this somewhere as well...Turner's stats as a 2B don't overwhelm, but I've never seen him play either. Most of these players were in AA at Chattanooga. Dickerson hit over .300 for the Reds in over 100 AB's, showing pretty decent power and some speed. I know his name has been mentioned a few times as one of the minor league outfielders/prospects to really keep an eye on. And while we're talking prospects, it looks like MINN has another Torii Hunter/Span/Gomez coming up in Aaron Hicks, their top-rated prospect. Just what the White Sox need to deal with!!!

Well. I'm not of the belief that spending $100 million plus guarantees success, and our 2005 team is a perfect example of a budget-conscious team (we'd just shed Magglio, C-Lee and Valentin) being very successful. However, the thinking must be that things might be even worse in 2010, so this is the optimal time to go for a price increase...they always have the option to lower prices to make them more attractive again...but it would be harder with another year of recession AND potentially not coming off a playoff appearance. The numbers are a little bit deceptive because of the contract money coming our way (Griffey, Thome, Vazquez?)...but we were still around $105-110 with all those adjustments made for "subsidies," correct? I always found it ironic that the Yankees were not only paying Contreras to pitch for us, but that he was leading us to the World Series in the process, whereas the Yanks haven't won it since 2000. I think the recessionary situation does KW some additional cover, as well as JR. However, according to many, the White Sox aren't seeing significant falloff in season ticket sales for 2009...quite the contrary. I guess they figure it's better to conservatively "pre-correct" than to wait one year too long on players like Swisher, Dye, Vazquez and Jenks. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/attendance Realistically, we were 16th in MLB attendance...yet our payroll was in the Top 5-8. Of course, mathematicians can calculate average ticket, concession, souvenir and parking prices and tell you that the White Sox were probably somewhere around 8-12 in terms of generating overall revenue because of the higher prices vis a vis many of the other markets in the game. I do appreciate the White Sox willingness to spend though in the 2006-08 seasons. I never thought I'd see that in my lifetime as a White Sox fan, to tell the truth.

QUOTE (quickman @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 10:18 PM) Fathom, Payroll will be down this year, see Economic downturn, Cut back in season ticket renewels, Team being re-tooled to go younger and faster. bailey is a good talent that has not produced, right up KW 's alley. He thinks he can catch lightening in a bottle every year. In addition I love freel for a leadoff hitter. That said and we unload Dye and 12 million, is great. next year Thome leaves, the year after that Konerko leaves, and Buehrle might be in there within the next two years. makes perfect sense to me. Have you heard anything specifically about White Sox season ticket renewals and cutting payroll...or just the generic comments about the economy from KW, moving towards a younger and more athletic roster...I think it was the Barry Rozner article about having 75 cents to spend out of a dollar instead of 50 like it used to be.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 08:59 PM) Kalapse, I eagerly look forward to your posts on this site, but let's not turn this into a PhD dissertation. We all understand what mlbtraderumors is, and even for those who don't, it's not like the "real" sources you are referring to are anything more than purposefully misleading leaks, absolute speculation, and/or old news that got distorted as it traveled down the grapevine. The bottom line is that other than perhaps Ken Rosenthal, there simply are no credible sources when it comes to hot stove rumors. Sure, a link to the info posted is always preferred. A link to mlbtraderumors, which is a warehouse of rumors which also contains links to other sources, seems perfectly acceptable considering the currency in which we are dealing. As for me, I'm just lazy...of course all of the stories are links to other stories, that's the lifeblood of that site. You don't go there for analysis from the board operators. While I understand the posting (as an English and History teacher) and the technical correctness about sourcing, I think the most important thing to keep in mind is at least having a viable link to where the information came from... I tend to copy-and-paste a lot, but I don't do it trying to represent it as "my analysis," or I'll put my comments juxtaposed in a different font, bold, italics, etc. I remember in the early days of chisox.com, I had a continual running fight with the infamous "ncorgbl" about what percentage of an article could be copied and pasted...it got tedious. He would even count words in a total article, the words I cut from the original, and then try to report me to mlb.com so I could be "banned" for 3 days. Too funny.

While Mark Teahen is a player of interest for the Cubs, they certainly won't be trading Mike Fontenot and Sean Marshall for him. The Cubs don't consider Teahen the middle of the order bat they require. Royals outfielder David DeJesus also interests the Cubs, but the source has the impression Dayton Moore would have to be overwhelmed to trade him. There seems a good chance DeJesus stays put this winter. The Cubs aren't keen on bringing Jim Edmonds back for 2009. There are no perfect fits for the right field vacancy, and the Cubs are willing to sacrifice some defense to add that middle of the order lefthanded hitter. The Cubs are hoping a market forms for Jason Marquis, and are willing to eat salary "within reason." They would be content with Marquis as their fifth starter if nothing surfaces. I couldn't get any specifics, but the Cubs do feel that they have reasonable options to clear payroll other than trading Marquis. Teams around baseball are wary of certain Type A/B free agents accepting offers of arbitration. Expect the Cubs to figure out where Kerry Wood stands before deciding whether to offer. from mlbtraderumors.com

QUOTE (G&T @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 06:50 AM) I was under the impression that it was common practice to offer a player arbitration under an agreement that he won't accept. And since when was it clear that Cabrera will be offered arbitration? I'm not sure really applies when you have a huge contract ($10 million+), then Griffey would be walking away from a lot more money from the White Sox (and Reds with some money coming to us) than he would have a prayer of getting from any other team.

Cabrera's ego is too big to ever accept going back to the White Sox clubhouse. He's the second shortstop on the market after Furcal...and before Renteria. There's no way he just walks and KW doesn't offer. If he comes back, then you have Cabrera at SS, Alexei at 2B or CF and we're a much stronger team. So it's really a win-win situation. He will get a better deal from another team...Phil Rogers mentioned it in passing and now there's some doubt floating around about what KW will ultimately do. In the end, Cabrera will end up in the NL, probably LA or SF, but quite possibly Minnesota. He was also 2nd in the Gold Glove voting. He'll find a team...heck, Royce Clayton found about five teams after he left Chicago, and he was horrible.

QUOTE (chiguy79 @ Nov 24, 2008 -> 05:04 PM) They have us hostage this year they had to push through the increase now because they probably won't be able to jack prices up again for 2-3 years. If the team doesn't perform this year I think a lot of ST holders will not be renewing for 2010. Well, it's only logical...if they had missed the playoffs, and didn't have the renewals/deposits attached to that...and the "good feelings" from the offseason rather than an overwhelming sense of disappointment and "what might have been" (surrounding Quentin)...then it would have been impossible to pull this off. You have to strike while the iron is not. Heck, even in this economy, the Dodgers will still be asking $90 for some of their ST tickets in the new facility.

QUOTE (Swingandalongonetoleft @ Nov 24, 2008 -> 11:54 PM) As a LRP, perhaps. Other than that we've had potential guys state their case in the latter months of the season for the fifth spot, and even that I'm not to comfortable with. With so much money flowing to Linebrink, MacDougal, Dotel, Thornton and now Jenks...paying more than $1 million for someone like Perez is foolhardy...unless it's with the intention he starts quite a few games as the 5th, and provides insurance to Richard/Poreda/Contreras. However, the kind of money he will ask for with a 4.34 ERA isn't going to be worth it...and we also have Broadway, Egbert and Carrasco that could start in a more limited stretch of 2-3 starts (but not hopefully not more) as a band-aid/stopgap solution while KW is trying to find someone better.

Obviously, it seem they won't with Crede, although it wouldn't be a HORRIBLE idea, simply because Boras and Crede would probably never accept it. Crede's the #10 player on some offseason Free Agency lists...but he's no compensation, correct? So that wouldn't make a heck of a lot of sense, especially in view of all the off-season article...the comments by Ozzie over the weekend about disappointment in Crede (Q&A, Trib) for his reluctance to play with pain down the stretch, etc. Second, it seems pretty clear they will offer it to Cabrera and it won't be accepted. It also seems pretty clear that while Ozzie and KW love Juan Uribe, it might be a risk they don't want to take with Uribe (TypeB)...because they already have Betemit in the stable, Fields, Alexei Ramirez, Getz, Beckham and Nix. It just doesn't seem to make as much sense, particularly in light of the Betemit deal to get a little younger and cheaper so we can invest payroll dollars elsewhere. How many teams realistically are going to look at Uribe as a starter? At SS? Could he end up in Los Angeles or San Francisco if those teams miss out on Cabrera, Furcal and Renteria? What about Minnesota? I think if I was GM Smith, I'd rather have Uribe at SS than Punto. However, all signs point to MINN moving Casilla over from 2B. Who would play 2B then? Harris? Tolbert? Uribe could make sense to them if they offered him the starting job at SS or 2B, even if the money was a little less than he'd make with the White Sox (even assuming a 20% paycut, which isn't 100% a certainty). Also, this hasn't been talked about much recently, but do you think there's some kind of handshake or gentleman's agreement that the White Sox will offer Griffey arbitration (TypeB) and he will turn it down? Or would MLBPA argue that he's insane...if he only had to take a cut from last year's huge salary? Not sure what the specific rule is there...they can't really compel someone to accept arbitration.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 01:43 AM) I seem to recall it being the Giants MO for a while to sign guys before the arbitration deadline to avoid paying for 1st round draft picks. ' So the former club (in this case the Tigers) can't simply offer arbitration after the new contract has already been signed but before December 1st and get the picks anyway? "6:00pm: Additional denials have come in via Andrew Baggarly and Derrick Goold. Baggarly says Renteria is the Giants' fallback for Furcal. He notes that the Tigers would've loved to see Renteria sign today, as they're unlikely to offer him arbitration. Goold learned that Meister (Renteria's agent) will double back with the Cardinals before Renteria signs elsewhere." mlbtraderumors.com

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 02:31 AM) I love Alexei as much as anybody, but Cheat brought up a point on his blog a while back...he basically looked back on the fact that it appeared the White Sox had their SS of the future in Juan Uribe, who coincidentally played 2B in 04, and he turned into garbage. Juan Uribe also had a better year in 2004 than Alexei did in 08, though Alexei had a slightly better contact rate. Not predicting doom and gloom, just suggesting it might not all be roses for Alexei in the future, no matter how much fun he was this past season. However, Uribe had hit .300, .240 and .253 in an offensive paradise before that season...his overall numbers were really carried by the first two months of the season, when he was hitting around .400 or higher for most of that period. Ramirez has faster hands and makes better adjustments on breaking stuff. I think he will end up making a lot more contact and getting many more infield hits with bunts and choppers than Uribe going forward. 23 HR/502 AB URIBE (2004) 21 HR/480 AB Ramirez (2008) However, if you look at both of their seasons, Uribe really tailed off at the end, and went back to his .247 AVG, 20+ HR's, 70+ RBI's self for the following three seasons. And that still wasn't bad. It wasn't until after his third so-so season in a row that KW went out and replaced him. But (for Alexei) let's take away the first two months because of the cold (first time playing in it), inconsistent playing time and a general "adjustment period" for a foreign ballplayer in the US without having the advantage of any time in the minors. That gives you 390 at-bats, 19 homers/390 AB's and a much more impressive 70 RBI's in just 390 at-bats....hitting out of different spots in the line-up, some that were not conducive to RBI production. That also pencils out at 117 for 390, or a .300 AVERAGE. Also keep in mind it was his first season in the states, and the season in Cuba is much shorter...he noticeably wore down in August and September (partially because of his smaller/slight frame) and it also led to some defensive lapses as well (IMO). I'm sure you could do this with Alexei as well, but Juan had that MON. game with 7 RBI's, that won't happen again.

QUOTE (Tony82087 @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 01:38 AM) When has Brignac been linked at all? Who said the Sox were going after him? Just the part in the blurb about the Sox looking for a SS prospect and starting pitcher (young). With the Rays, that means Brignac...Edwin Jackson/Davis/Niemann. KW, I'm sure, wouldn't settle for Niemann or Neimann or whatever his name is...

Are those stats (3rd/6th) just for the American League right? I guess the pitching one is a little misleading...because Contreras won't be a part of the equation, our "old" pitchers in the rotation are now Vazquez and Buehrle. So I think our pitching staff at least is getting much younger. By the way, is that 6th rating counting the bullpen and starting five, or just the starters? I guess by adding Linebrink and Dotel, Thornton's 32/33, and Carrasco, we got a bit older there, too. Out of necessity. Not sure if they are counting Logan/Russell/Wasserman either as part of the average age, because those three would drive it down a little bit. The biggest issue, of course, is the starting line-up and needing to get younger there...losing Cabrera is a start. But Swisher/Crede/Uribe/Hall were still in their primes or relatively close in terms of their ages, so age wasn't/isn't the sole factor. Bringing in Viciedo and Beckham, Poreda, Richard...that will definitely help to lower those averages...along with Ramirez and Quentin, of course.

Well, obviously KW is not going to give Jenks, Dye and Vazquez away like he did with Swisher...seemingly. I guess with the Rays, Reid Brignac has kind of fallen back....as a SS prospect. It's interesting, though, with Ramirez around, why they are trying to acquire a young shortstop? (Besides the obvious fact it's one of the most important positions on the field and Valido and Andy Gonzalez, not to mention Pedro Lopez and Dellaero and Caruso were are flops). But, with Alexei, we should have that position covered for at least the next three years. We also have Beckham, who potentially could play there but whose range is better suited for 2B in all likelihood.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Nov 24, 2008 -> 11:37 PM) I'm still not convinced that the youth movement can't win the division. The Royals are a work in progress, the Tigers are a mess, the Twins will be a tick as always until we scratch them off, and the Indians are trying to rework their entire roster, and will be a dramatically different pitching staff (then in recent years) even with CY Lee. Thankfully, the Indians have lots of holes in their pen. However, if Reyes and Lewis pitch like they are capable of, they probably have the best starting pitching in the division...to go with Lee and Carmona. They don't have a 5th, like us...maybe Laffey, Sowers or Zach Jackson. However, I feel a lot more confident in Danks/Floyd than they probably do about Reyes and Lewis. And Carmona's a real wild card, no telling what you will get with him. DET gets a healthy Bonderman back and Porcello pitches like Bonderman in his rookie season, they have Galarraga too....Bonderman. Willis is the biggest issue there, what to do about him...of course, Robertson was crappy last year and Miner might be back in the rotation. And they have no closer either.

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Nov 24, 2008 -> 08:47 PM) It was a very close game this year with a kid making his first ever road start in a really hostile environment. It's a series the home team is winning anymore, and I think Ferentz was stressing it a lot more this year than in year's past. If Iowa rolls into Ames next year thinking that trophy is theirs, they'll get a rude awakening, cause I guarantee it'll get played up here. OTOH, Iowa was still searching for a QB at the time between Christensen (yet another five star recruiting bust) and Stanzi, the much less heralded player coming into spring practice. Iowa's program has a lot of momentum on its side, especially if they can manage to take down a B12 or SEC team in the bowl game. We've beaten Florida and LSU somehow, so it definitely can be done.

Well, if they're raising ticket prices 11% (think how many extra millions that playoff appearance meant, with all the playoff packages and deposits) at a time when Michigan's unemployment rate is soaring towards Great Depression levels...then KW is going to put a better product on the field than Getz/Betemit/Nix at 2B and Anderson/Owens in CF. Just wait and be patient. I'm very encouraged by the Viciedo signing, and the momentum of Armstrong, Beckham, Danks and Poreda generated in the Arizona Fall League. Viciedo is essentially another Top 10 first round draft pick, so we've really managed to become respectable again with our minor league system in the span of 2 seasons, despite trading away Cunningham/Carter/DLS/Gio/Sweeney.

9:24pm: I can't remember a day where so many rumors were floated and then debunked. The latest: Perez's agent and a source familiar with the team's thinking tell MLB.com's Bill Ladson that no multiyear deal is in the works with the Nationals. mlbtraderumors.com I don't even think KW offered a guaranteed one year contract. It was probably 80% based on incentives...and Perez and his agent THINK they can somehow get a 2 year deal, and anything is possible I suppose in this pitching-friendly market. What I think KW is doing is just getting a feel for some of his back-up options/insurance for the 5th spot...the likes of Colon, Garcia, Pedro Martinez, Mark Mulder, Schilling, Odalis Perez, Paul Byrd...maybe Marquis, but I doubt it.