caulfield12

QUOTE (BlackBetsy @ Sep 17, 2008 -> 10:40 AM) On the morning of September 17, 2003, five years ago today, the White Sox were exactly 1.5 games behind the Twins and playing the second game of a three game series in Minnesota that night. I guess that's kind of down to the wire - people forget exactly how close that race was until the final two weeks. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2003_sched.shtml The Sox went 6-6 the rest of the way, while the Twins went 8-3, although that is skewed by the fact that the Sox won the last two games of the season against KC after Minnesota had clinched and Minnesota dropped the last two of the season to Detroit. Effectively, the season was over when the Twins swept the Sox to go up 3.5 games in the standings. Maybe I'm off, but I think we won the first two games of a home series that month, then lost the second two games and were swept at Minnesota. The turning point was that second home game, where we had a huge lead and gradually frittered away the lead as Jose Paniagua (bread and water) ALMOST blew it and the Twins effectively took all the momentum and ran with it. For some reason, that game and losing the third game with Cotts starting instead of Buerhle in the Stadium are the two games that stand out to me. I also remember that Loaiza was really gassed that final month and just wasn't the same pitcher he was in the first half. While it went down, technically, to the final week or so, it was over psychologically after the Twins beat the Sox five times in a row.

This is the first real "close" pennant race i can remember the White Sox being in, within 1-2 games for most of the last couple of months. In 1983, 1993 and 2000, we were well ahead for much of those seasons...of course, 2005 was simply crazy and nerve-wracking at the end. In 2003, it was close in early September but didn't really come down to the wire. 2006, it felt like we were out of it the last 6 weeks, even though we weren't officially eliminated until much later. I was too young for the 1977 season. My favorite season, even though we came up short, was the last season in the old ballpark with Torborg as manager. That was a very exciting and interesting year. Unfortunately, there were some even better Oakland A's teams at that time, and the Twins were in the middle of their glory years, too (1987-91). I guess the myth of the Twins "owning" the White Sox is due to 2003 and 2006 mostly (and our record against the Twins, specifically on the road), but those numbers were skewed by the 2001, 2002 and 2004 teams especially (W-L record head to head versus Minny).

QUOTE (joesaiditstrue @ Sep 17, 2008 -> 03:05 AM) Ozzie throwing clayton back to the bump tomorrow doesn't help our chances for a 3 of 4 from the yankees, unfortunately His decisions sometimes, just laughable Of course, he *could* win, or rather WE could win (He could leave with a lead, or being down, and we could perhaps score more runs ultimately), but the odds of us winning with someone who's as f***ing bad as Clayton Richard, is very slim, and that pisses me off right now There's really very little choice here. As it is, we're possibly going to use our three best starters without four days' rest TWICE before we go into the first round of the playoffs. The only pitcher we're attempting to baby along is Danks, because of his age and his innings pitched over the last 2-3 seasons. I remember some speculating he would be shut down for September, but that just doesn't happen in a pennant race that traditionally comes around once every 4-5 seasons for the modern-day Sox. The Twins are being forced to used Baker on 3 days' rest as well, against Cliff Lee. The reason I'm not 100% worried is that seems like a loss and another day off the calendar. However, with their backs against the wall, I think the Twins might resuscitate themselves and somehow win, although I wouldn't bet anything of significance (say, Merrill, AIG or Lehman stock!!!) on it. Poreda would have been the wild-card to go, but starting in NY against that line-up, I remember what happened with N. Cotts when we did that to him in 2003, when Buehrle wanted to go on short rest and we could have swept them out of Queens. Manuel didn't go for the jugular. Unfortunately, we can't pitch Vazquez on 2 days' rest, right? Or did you want Broadway or Carrasco? Either one of them, as noted, would have been shellacked as well.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 17, 2008 -> 03:19 AM) The only other pitcher I would ultimately use before Richard as the starter tomorrow is Carrasco, but I think he's more for damage control. You are assuredly not going to use Broadway against them as there's no doubt in my mind that the Yankees would absolutely destroy him (and he's been quite a bit worse than Richard has this year, even if it is skewed because of one outing...I think an outing tomorrow would skew that even worse). If you can get what he did against Seattle or Baltimore, the Sox are in a position to win; if you can get what he did against Cleveland, you go to Carrasco and hope he can get to the 7th and that the Sox are leading. If he gets rocked early and the game is essentially out of hand by the 3rd or 4th, you go to Broadway, hope he pitches decently, and that the Sox can get back into the game. If they can't, let Swisher throw an inning or two. I really don't think this matchup is nearly as bad as people anticipate it being. It obviously doesn't favor the Sox, but I'm not about to write them off right now. There are a few reasons for hope... 1) Phil Hughes is far from being an automatic slam dunk for the Yankees (kind of like Homer Bailey of the AL) 2) We have Danks as the first out of the pen on Wednesday for 2-4 innings, as his official start won't be for one week, until next Sunday 3) Yankees are below .500 against LH starters 4) For the moment, "mo" seems to be on the side of the Sox for once this season

I was surprised to see Gardenhire use the phrase "snakebitten" to describe his team after tonight's loss. That's a loser's mentality...meant to explain the 3-13 bullpen, road woes and the sudden loss of confidence that Joe Nathan has demonstrated for the better part of a month. "It's a tough one to swallow," he said. "So many heartbreaking things tonight. You feel for those young men out there [in the clubhouse]. They're battling, they're really trying, and we're just kind of snakebitten. We can't keep the ball in the ballpark and it's not going our way."

They would have to take two of three in the HHH Dome next week, after taking 3 of 4 on the road against a very sound Tampa Bay Rays team (obviously, the Twins have struggled on the road recently) and then sweep the Royals at home. Keep in mind, the Rays are still motivated by keeping the AL East lead over Boston and also have slim odds to overtake LAA for the best record in AL and playoff homefield advantage. This assumes another road loss against Cliff Lee tomorrow, with Baker on three days' rest. In other words, 8-3 (2-1 versus the Sox), sweep of KC, loss to CLE tomorrow and take 3/4 at the Tropicana. I don't think the odds favor them doing any of those things, except for taking 2 of 3 from us on the turf. For the White Sox to end the season with a clinching Monday win over DET and 91 total wins (clinching the AL Central in the final game, instead of the one game playoff scenario at home against the Twins)...they need the following to occur. 6-5 record over the next 11 games (5-6 in order to to go to a playoff, assuming Minnesota somehow finishes 8-3) Split with Yankees Take 2/3 at KC Take 1/3 from Minnesota Take 2/3 from CLE at home I would love to believe the Twinkies are really done and will lay down for us next week, but that's VERY unlikely unless they get swept by the Indians and the D-Rays. If they go 1-4 and the White Sox go 3-2 (NY, KC), the White Sox would have a seemingly insurmountable 4 1/2 game lead with 6 or 7 to play. Of course, the only thing this season that has happened as predicted was Clayton Richard getting mowed down by a very hot Toronto Blue Jays team.

NY is 21-22 against LH starters this year.

I think this might quiet down some of the KW doubters again...since he was smart enough to trade Gio twice and get more back in return than he would had he performed this way for the White Sox at the big league level. Now his weaknesses have been exposed. Of course, he'll probably turn things around and become the next Cliff Lee! First Arnie Munoz, now Gio. When is a young White Sox pitcher that's rumored to have a great curveball going to be able to execute at the highest level?

Wow....Morneau's swing probably would have won the game if not for the "at em" ball. Morneau's numbers against Rodney, 6 for 10, three doubles, 2 HR's and 3 walks. Amazing comeback against the increasingly vulnerable Twins' set-up men in the 7th and 8th.

QUOTE (CQMVP @ Sep 3, 2008 -> 01:31 AM) Yeah, yeah, ironic my name is CQMVP. My point, was that we had holes last year that killed us, and we STILL have those same holes this year. Obviously, given my name, I agree with everyone that says CQ was an absolute steal. No argument there. Ramirez has been a diamond in the rough too. But we really don't know what we have yet with those two. They might put up similiar numbers for the rest of their careers, or this season might just be an anamoly. Either way, they cost us nothing, so those are great moves. OC is not a leadoff hitter, which we've needed since 2005. Nick Swisher is not the CF we've needed, ever since we got rid of Rowand... We've had holes at CF and leadoff hitter since 2005... Three seasons later and we're still trying to address the same holes in our lineup? Come on. Linebrink has been great when he's healthy, but the Brewers really got their money's worth last year after they acquired him. He pitched a TON at the end of the season, and most people would tell you that's the major reason he's been on the DL so much this year. How much does he have left in the tank? Will he even pitch again this year in the ML? That remains to be seen. Our bullpen stats really don't tell the full story this season. We had a stellar first couple months, mostly because of Linebrink being lights out, but it has been a downhill ride ever since. I can't count how many games the bullpen has lost for us over the last two months. How big of an upgrade is OC over Uribe? I don't think he's as solid defensively as Uribe, and he's a little bit better at the plate. It seems like OC's errors come in the worst possible situations, on, what seem to be, relatively routine plays. It also seems to me that they always end up leading to a game being blown wide open and out of reach. I'd definitely prefer to have John Garland in the lineup right now, and Uribe playing every day at SS. Even if OC is a slight upgrade at the plate. On to Swisher over Brian Anderson.... Defensively? Not even close. Give me BA any day of the week. Offensively? Well, Swisher is batting an amazing .226 right now. He's what, 2 for his last 30? BA is at .235, and it's a lot harder to get hits in the situations that BA has been this season. He comes into the games late and gets one, maybe two at bats. Yeah, I would actually prefer BA in the lineup every day over Swisher. Call me crazy! I just think that Kenny could have done a much, much better job in the offseason. Ultimately, I think the Swisher and OC moves will be the reason we don't go anywhere this year, IF we can somehow make it into the playoffs. With the way we've been playing lately, I really don't see us holding off the Twins, and if we do, we're one and done. Our pitching is starting to drop off. Danks seems like he's running on empty, and we only have four legitimate starters to begin with. Now we may be down to three? Our bullpen is still not healthy, and they do their job one out of every 5 games. Our offense has been sporadic, at best. If we don't hit home runs, we don't win. Period. I hope I'm wrong, but I've watched pretty much every game over the last 3 months...and this is just what I've witnessed. 1) We're going to get 2 high draft picks when we lose Cabrera, who we never intended to keep long-term IMO, with Ramirez being KW's "hoped for" solution in 2009, which is looking to be on target right now 2) We needed to shed Garland's and Garcia's salaries to keep the decks free/open for some younger pitching, so we have Danks and Floyd now, and our rotation isn't soaking up an incredible percentage of the payroll, like the 2006 team 3) Gavin Floyd or Danks>>>Jon Garland, not even accounting for the fact that they're both huge bargains salary-wise 4) Going into the season with BA as the starting CF was really not a realistic possibility for anyone but Sox bloggers and fanboys...Anderson is not a power hitter, but he has no fundamental skills and he doesn't bring much else to the table (such as smart baserunning or more than 5-10 stolen bases per year, if he played the full season). Heck, if we had a decent CF the first half of 2006, we might have been able to hold onto the playoff spot, instead of embarassing Mackowiak (and this year Griffey) by putting them out there. If BA could bunt, hit to the opposite field, cut down his strikeouts and do some of the little things to be a good "complementary" player like Iguchi was in 2005/06, I would say great, sign me up, even though I don't think he's better than Torii Hunter/Andrew Jones/Jim Edmonds in their primes like many BA fans who are convinced KW is the devil and is out to destroy the team. Even this week, Ozzie has more confidence that Jerry Owens will get something started against a RH pitcher...moreso than believing BA is the answer. 5) If we didn't have Swisher, we wouldn't have had any hitter with a semblance of power capable of getting hot and carrying the team for stretches of a week or so, like Swisher has done this year when he was really on fire. 6) Uribe over a full season leaves us with more offensive problems and without a leadoff hitter...taking OC off the club would have left us with who batting leadoff? Brian Anderson? Ramirez? Statistically, Jim Thome would have been our best leadoff hitter!!!! Swisher at least has SOME plate patience and takes some walks, although his OBP and OPS haven't been up to career levels this season. However, if you had argued on July 1st that he would have 25 homers by the end of the season, I would have taken that bet against you. 7) Having Garland, Sweeney and Gio Gonzalez this season wouldn't have put us in a better position to win. Sweeney's low 700's OPS is okay in Oakland, which is a stadium which values speed and defense more than power, and where a doubles hitter MIGHT have a place in the line-up. In Comiskey, he's definitely a liability at one of the corner spots, and his defense isn't good enough for center (only his arm would be okay there).

I don't think Chavez is going to be the answer, because when's the last time you ever saw BB dump a player and eat his salary at the same time? Almost never. Not that I can think of. I think Blalock is more likely, for a number of reasons. Younger. Not as expensive. Downside/upside risk. I look at Chavez much like many Sox fans looked at Thome coming into 2006, a huge, huge risk. In Thome's case, it has actually worked out fairly well for the Sox, all things considered. Ramirez isn't ready to be a number 2 hitter, yet. If you look back at 2005, we did have a significantly higher number of sacrifice bunts, taken pitches, balls hit to the opposite field to advance runners...we just played more fundamentally sound baseball, and a huge and underappreciated part of this is due to Iguchi's baseball acumen. There aren't very many players on this team that look to advance runners, especially the last week or so. Almost all of our hitters are power hitters (or see themselves in this light), which is where the whole problem of a power-oriented team spreads like a virus. Even players like Uribe, Anderson, AJ and Cabrera are falling into ruts. I think the 2005 teams, players knew their roles and executed at about an 80-90% success rate. On this roster, obviously Dye, Quentin and Thome are power hitters and aren't going to be laying down bunts. That leaves Konerko/Griffey, Swisher, 3B (Crede/Uribe), AJ, Cabrera and Ramirez. I think Ramirez has done everything that can be expected for a rookie...and he's probably the smartest baseball player on this team. AJ has had a typical AJ season, he's definitely not a prototypical 2 hitter, which is where Cabrera should be. So really, it comes down to Swisher, Konerko, Crede/Uribe (mostly Crede) and Cabrera either being injured or not really playing up to their potential. The problem is that Konerko will never be a "small ball" player, but Swisher/Konerko/Uribe/Crede/Cabrera have to do a much better job of execution and fundamental "smart" baseball in order for this team to be great. One thing I didn't see coming was the complete erosion of the defense, which was middle-of-the-pack the first half of the season. Crede has been, in all honesty, TERRIBLE. We had yet another situation today where we should have turned the double play (Dotel was late covering) and that ended up in the floodgates opening. But Cabrera has been below-average, all things considered, and Fields promises more of the same. Swisher is great at 1B but below-average in CF. Konerko is average at 1B. The only above average fielder on the team right now is Alexei Ramirez, throwing out the errors and just going by "qualitative" observation. And now Danks seems like he's reached the end of his rope this season, maybe one month later than 2007. I really feel the White Sox chances slipping each and every game, but I suppose anything is possible. We can say that Minnesota has given us life over and over again, and Minnesota can say the same thing about the White Sox over the last week or so. Unfortunately, their road trip will end up with the Sox having nothing like a 3-4 game lead that many were projecting. OTOH, we've been so cold recently the season will either end like 03/04/06 or we'll pull out of it in the end like 2005, although count me a skeptic on that one.

Well, by the law of statistical averages, only 1-2 teams per season (plus a "fluke" also-ran or .500 team) will have a winning record against the 3-4 best teams in the league each year. Actually, this is better than losing against sub-par or inferior teams, because there are a lot more of those. If you play well over .500 against the bad teams, you can afford a below .500 record in this category. One of the reasons the White Sox struggled recently to get to the playoffs was they couldn't beat the bad or average teams/pitchers. The other factor is we have a lot of free swingers with big swings. Against great or very good pitching, only Ramirez, Quentin and a healthy Konerko match-up well at all.

Ramirez needs to be running as soon as he gets on. Dice-K is slow to the plate due to his motion and Varitek can throw about as well as Toby Hall last season. That would have given them 3 chances to drive in the runner from 2nd, not that it helped Boston last inning. This game would have been much different had Cabrera's first liner ended up as a triple. Now the next problem will be Vazquez elevating his pitch count and sitting at over 50 pitches here early in the 4th. Looks like we will have to go to Carrasco first in this game. We don't have time to mess around in this game with anything but our best relievers (if there are any!)

Ramirez needs to be running as soon as he gets on. Dice-K is slow to the plate due to his motion and Varitek can throw about as well as Toby Hall last season. That would have given them 3 chances to drive in the runner from 2nd, not that it helped Boston last inning. This game would have been much different had Cabrera's first liner ended up as a triple. Now the next problem will be Vazquez elevating his pitch count and sitting at over 50 pitches here early in the 4th. Looks like we will have to go to Carrasco first in this game. We don't have time to mess around in this game with anything but our best relievers (if there are any!)

Vazquez has been missing on his locations. The first two sequences all featured either curves or change-ups that were hanging on the inside of the plate when they were called outside. Fortunately, the hitters were looking outside and/or for fastballs. Should have used a slider low and away on Bay but got away with it because his bat was slowed down by the offspeed stuff.

Especially against Dice-K at home in Boston. You can't just assume we're going to put up 3-5 runs against him. The Red Sox are injured, with Lugo, Beckett, Lowell and Drew out. That helps. Of course the "no name" pitcher tomorrow will probably cruise against the Sox and Wakefield, coming off an injury, will throw a shutout with 9 K's. I'm just hoping 1-2 in Boston and the Twins only go 2-1 in Oakland. Cooper said Linebrink could be back as soon as Wednesday if the simulated game goes well Monday.

Slowey, Liriano and Baker, arguably their three best pitchers, are all lined up for the rest of the series, so I wouldn't be shocked if they were able to win all three. Still, we were hoping they would go under .500 on the road trip, and they're currently at 3-5. Does anyone know whether Burnett or Halladay will get them next week? I think for them to finish 4-2 and end up at 7-7 wouldn't surprise anyone...perhaps the best we could expect. But they're going to have to work now to get it done, and things certainly look better for the Sox than they did after the first two Angels games. Crain is about to officially enter the Twins' doghouse for the rest of the season. That leaves Guardado, Guerrier, Reyes and Breslow to get outs...it's nice to have three lefties in the pen, but they don't have a reliable RH reliever, just like the Sox right now.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:51 PM) What does that have to do with the law of averages? Its pure statistical fact that the twins are above the mean with RISP. Simple, there have been plenty of analyses done over the last 10-15 years showing how many times team from the bottom and 3rd quartile have made the playoffs in MLB. The odds aren't very high. Beyond the Marlins, A's and Twins, it hasn't happened at all. That also is a statistical fact. Payroll doesn't guarantee the Yankees a championship, or the Dodgers, or the Mets, but it doesn't give them an exponentially BETTER opportunity to make it.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:47 PM) Really Danks, Juan Castro? Here we go again...thanks, Danks. Where is everyone around here, watching the DNC, lol?

QUOTE (Paint it Black @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:42 PM) The Twins are good, but c'mon. Baseball logic tells you they won't hit above .300 with RISP. Baseball logic also tells you that teams with middle or lower-tier payrolls in small markets shouldn't win 5 of 7 division championships against big-market teams like Chicago and Detroit. Heck, CLE was a "big market" team in the way they operated until Dolan took over. Four consecutive fastballs to a .181 hitter at 90-91 mph. The announcers for BALT claimed they could hit one at the batting cage if they just kept seeing fastball after fastball at the same speed, lol.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:40 PM) How well did Uribe hit that ball? Routine. Where are the Uribe haters, lol? I have a hard time imagining they would walk Swisher to face Crede, lol. Maybe, anything's possible. It is also possible the Red Sox could overtake the Rays and they could fall back to the Sox and Twins.

QUOTE (SoxFanForever @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:16 PM) Athleticism is great. However, so is production. Our left fielder has more home runs than all 4 of those outfielders combined and almost has more RBI than 3 of them combined. Let's not take a dump on our guys. I didn't say anything about our outfield, Quentin's obviously a good athlete and Dye one was. It's simply that the Twins have a knack for making the huge plays when they really need them to stay within hailing distance of the Sox. Just when you think the White Sox might have turned the corner and could put the Twins in the rearview mirror, they reverse the momentum on us. Who knows, maybe Cleveland will go on a 40-1 run, lol. We can cite the numbers of Ordonez, Thomas, Lee, Valentin, etc., and production from 2001-2004 and what did that get the Sox? The Twins are always better than the sum of all their individual parts, the White Sox seem to be better on paper/statistically/talent-wise and yet the Twins play better as a team.

The baseball gods I think are against the Sox today. The rule that says don't assume you get an automatic win with your best pitcher when the guy has a 7+ ERA. Konerko's bat-speed and confidence are coming back, 94 MPH fastball turned around quickly. At any rate, the M's starter had an ERA close to 8 and held the Twins to only 3 runs in 7 IP. So, for some reason, I'm not EXPECTING the White Sox to destroy Liz like they should.

If the Twins get into the playoffs and we don't, I'm going to blame Denard Span. Of course, the guy's a rookie, so we have to deal with him for five more years at least. Why is it that the Twins always seem to have a boatload of athletic outfielders? First, there was Shannon Stewart, Hunter and J. Jones. Now, they have D. Young, Span, Carlos Gomez, Kubel and Cuddyer.

QUOTE (WilliamTell @ Aug 27, 2008 -> 05:05 PM) game over, 6-5. That was a bad 3-0 pitch for Ibanez to be swinging at, low and away. I was really hoping Beltre would get another chance to hit a walk-off homer, for the second consecutive day. Ibanez is now 0 for 6 lifetime against Nathan, but I suppose it was a good chance that he might hit another homer...but he should have laid off of the pitch if it wasn't in his wheelhouse.