caulfield12

Yes, but you're extending that contract until age 38 or 39 when he's already shown signs of decline over the last three years...which is perfectly normal in the newly-discovered reality baseball world where players peak between 27-30 and decline in their 30's.

First, he will cost the White Sox $16-20 million over 2 years, a little less than we're paying JD for this season. Second, he could play CF only if the competition for that position was Brian Daubach, Rob Mackowiak and Rob Deer with his legs tied together with Greedy in the three-legged sack race. Third, someone else (Dye, Konerko) would have to go probably to make way for his salary. Fourth, he's declining in production and is far from a power hitter...so you're paying for his OBP, hitting from the LH side and pretty decent speed. Pat Burrell, so far, is one of the best relative values in the market today. If the White Sox could get Abreu for $16-18 million and two years, that would be very similar, because just as the Rays needed RH power desperately, and White Sox need a LH, high OBP hitter with above average speed. Unfortunately, his days as an above average defender are well behind him now.

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/11...t-and-the-dunn/ Blog on the tastes of some fans for "grindy" Bloomquist types and others favoring high OBP/predictable stat machines like Dunn or JD Drew. I think this article is a good mirror into the psyche of many posters here. Of course, our biggest rival is the Twins, the grinder's club if there was one (although becoming less and less)...and we've been the opposite for most of this decade offensively.

Thank God we don't have to face Sabathia so much every year. I think we've only beaten him once in his career or something crazy like that. Every time Buehrle was slated to face him head-to-head, a loss was almost a near certainty. I know one game CC was knocked out very early or injured, can't remember off the top of my head the exact circumstances. The Tigers are a lot different without Kenny Rogers, Willis and Bonderman...even if you add in Edwin Jackson, who I forgot to mention in my last post. However, if Willis ever gets it back together completely (not likely at this point, at least not in the AL), they would be extremely dangerous with that offense, as long as it remains relatively healthy. You just wonder if Leyland might not jump ship again if he feels 2009 is starting out like 2008 left off?

QUOTE (Cubano @ Jan 11, 2009 -> 07:28 PM) I doubt their papers will be ready b4 Spring Training. I doubt their papers will be ready b4 the season starts unless some money is handed behind the scenes. Marti should be Plan B getting into form in the minors if somebody does not do the job or gets injured. The Department of Homeland Security and Department of State don't work like that, UNFORTUNATELY. My wife is from Russia (we're separated) and she's still in the US waiting for her Adjustment of Status to be decided upon and it has been over 5 years since she came to the United States and 5 1/2 years since we got married. Nothing happens quickly with the US Government doing background/name checks at Dept. of State since 9/11. Granted, this is a different type of visa (than a spouse visa), but it's still not going to be moved along by bribery.

Michael Young OBP in away/road games over the last three years=.338 Michael Young OPS in away/road games over the least three years=.730 .317/.681 (OBP/OPS) in away games for 2008 Why in God's name would you pay $15-16 million per season for a guy putting up those numbers and STARTING the season at age 32 1/2? That contract is a death sentence for the White Sox to have any type of financial flexibility moving forward in the future in the future. The Cubs and Yankees can assume that type of risk (we've gotten away with long-term deals for Konerko and Thome so far...not so much with Contreras), we can't. At least not now. If we're going to spend that kind of money, we might as well give it to Manny Ramirez for 2 years and $30-40 million. Then you can trade Dye. There's other ways to get leadoff hitters other than spending that money on Michael Young OR Willy Taveras. The Rangers would want Fields after bringing back Blalock and having Chris Davis at 1B? Doesn't make sense. And, if we trade Fields, who is going to play 3B? Betemit? Viciedo?

Yes, but what kind of rotations are the Tigers and Indians going to throw out there? Bonderman's health is a huge question mark, Willis is even more of a ?, and Robertson was atrocious last year. Sure you have the likes of Zach Miner, but he's nothing special. You have Verlander, who has never looked quite as good as his rookie season and has piled up huge pitch counts already, and Galarraga, who was very solid, but who Tigers fans would have the same concerns with him we have with Danks and Floyd. With the Indians....Carmona was very erratic last year, and you know Lee can't possibly put up the same numbers, can he? Well, if he can, then so can Danks. That leaves a laundry list of questions. Pavano? Reyes? Lewis? Westbrook will be out until mid-season, roughly, just like Contreras. Then you have the collection of so-so garbageness that is Zach Jackson, Laffey and Sowers.

Marti is supposed to be a lot like El Duque and less like Contreras. Lots of off-speed stuff, changes of pace and different looks/arm angles...doesn't throw much harder than 87-89 MPH with his fastball, which is why most aren't counting him or the Braves' new Japanese starter as anything more than 4/5, back of the rotation, types. But, like Freddy Garcia, he's noted as a "big game" pitcher and the type of guy you want out there on the mound in the most important games of the season...so the anti-Javy. Nothing like Javy's stuff, but cojones galore.

I can't remember what Cubano said at one point about Gomez...basically he's getting to the point where his speed isn't as much a factor in the post-steroids/HGH era, he's something of a slap/contact hitter who won't give you a very high OBP (due to lack of walks) or much more than a .650-700 OPS. Basically, we already have two of those players in Owens and Lillibridge already...who are younger, especially Lillibridge.

If you look at his history over the last decade, he has played on a lot of winning/playoff caliber ballclubs. I don't think it's a COMPLETE coincidence. OTOH, he's never really found a long-term home, either.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jan 11, 2009 -> 05:58 PM) Just 3 starters ( no Javy and no Contreras) with Carrasco and Richard having the most ML experience yea if that happens along with the current roster dwellers manning other positions it's 100 losses. Now I don't expect the current roster to be exactly the same to start the season but its getting kind of scary and I know I'm not the only Sox fan holding his breathe right now. You're forgetting we are in the AL Central and that we still face the NL in interleague play...we're not in the AL East, fortunately. Imagine being a Blue Jays or Orioles fan heading into this season? Not much fun. As of right now, we're looking at 70-82 wins and 80-92 losses. Somewhere in that range. I can't see us as anything better than a .500 club with three new starters, including a very questionable leadoff hitter, some uncertainty surrounding Linebrink being as good as he was in 2008 (first four months) and all the holes in our starting rotation. But 100 losses? I don't think so. Players like Getz and Lillibridge will probably end up giving the White Sox more of a boost than you give them credit for, and Viciedo and Beckham can have a huge impact as well in the 2nd half of the season to give us a "second wind," not to mention Contreras. I think the bigger concern would be injuries/aging across the board with Dye, Konerko, Thome and AJ...those four, in particular. Granted, the Twins weren't expected to contend at all coming into last season and hung in there all season, but their pitching possibilities looked more hopeful than ours at the back end of the rotation.

Marti would definitely be in the mix for the 4th/5th starter's spot. Even though he won't blow anyone away, he definitely would be the favorite I think if the White Sox were to sign him as of today. As far as Gomez, don't think we'd have much interest in him at all...the other kid Torres had earlier, CF Fernando Perez (who worked out with Viciedo at his famous tryout in the DR) would be a much more interesting sign than Gomez, fwiw, because he's still only 20.

QUOTE (GREEDY @ Jan 11, 2009 -> 11:14 AM) I didn't say that I wasn't crazy! It is easier to defend Blagojevich's matching track suits, than it is baseball conspiracy theories. I also forgot to to mention that it is good to hear the people of South Dakota haven't been effected as much by the economic crisis. In all honestly, I just was trying to make an amusing post reflecting the economic crisis baseball apparently has fallen into. I find it hard to believe that the owners are in worse shape than the auto industry (who it appears also overpaid its workers to a degree that will not longer lallow them be profitable). My thesis in college was a Walmart bashing, business ethics, ass whooping opus. Now a few years later I am kind of wondering if we should be happy that Wally World paid their employees what they could afford to give them, while still remaining an economic force? Maybe we need to stop wanting big business to play UNICEF, and let them keep the USA on top of the world. I'd bet we'd all be better for it. Before you think I am turning this into a political rant, let me say that I think this offseason might just be the MLB owners getting their employees in check so they make sure they are stil a growing, economic force. Some interesting stuff out there today, from comparisons in today's Wall Street Journal to "Atlas Shrugged" happening in reality....to suggestions that the US should just let virtually every company and individual go bankrupt and not bail them out, essentially starting over with the clean slate (Sect. Mellon's idea in the 20's or 30's), which would be a form of bailout! (letting every individual off the hook for their debts and houses that worth a lot less than they owe, I'm sure many would love that idea) and starting overly completely with ZERO debt, as debt was not the big, prevailing issue in 1929 it is today. Although I'm not sure that China and Japanese holders of American treasury notes would be a big fan of this idea.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 11, 2009 -> 09:42 AM) Duque was a free agent...funny though that the Yankees actually traded him to the Sox intitially, and then the Sox dealt him to Montreal for Bartolo Colon. He later rejoined the Yankees and then signed with the Sox as mentioned previously. The Yankees dealt Contreras because it looked like, and quite frankly was, a terrible contract. He was a long reliever for them, and they dealt him for a different long reliever who was signed for cheaper and fewer years. I can't blame them for it. If you're going to use Marte, you can't suddenly forget about Javy Vazquez. I don't look too much into players that have been traded outside of between teams. There are GMs that want players all the time, and something such as that is coincidental. Jimenez was merely an underrated player at the time who had potential who also had his share of problems, and Williams gave him a chance to capture a starting position on a weak Sox team at the time. The fact that he was cut so quickly gives you an idea as to how much Williams really liked him, especially considering how patient Williams has been with younger players in the past. Regarding Swisher, Cashman most likely felt that it was a good deal at the time, and Williams wanted to get rid of him while also reading the market well, and suddenly Swisher looks like a bad contract with no where to play in New York. Kudos to Williams on making a good deal, and Cashman doesn't care because he has the money to afford an expensive backup. When was the last time the Sox made a deal with the O's, Rays, Marlins, or Cardinals? Of those, the last I can think of is the Koch trade with the Marlins, and that was just as much of getting rid of him as it was getting anyone in return. The Sox generally make small trades with several teams and big trades with only a select few. I'm not too worried about it. Marlins...maybe Julio Ramirez for Jeff Abbott? Orioles would have to be Singleton for Willie Harris. Jimenez, in all fairness, suffered major injuries in a car crash....amazingly, I think he played almost a full season with the Reds later on in his brief career, but he was known as a clubhouse cancer while with the White Sox. There was a famous story/urban legend that Frank Thomas sat on him in the clubhouse one time and that the clubhouse really fell apart around that time with Clayton, Lofton, Lee and Jimenez the main culprits. So I think KW simply felt he wasn't worth the headaches because his potential was replaced by Willie Bloomquist-ness with more power but atrocious defense that would make Pete Incaviglia or Kevin Nursery Reimer look like a Gold Glover. In 2005, I just thought it was hilarious that Cashman had to sit back and watch both Contreras and El Duque not only lead the team to the World Series title, but also blow through the hated Red Sox along the way. Maybe he was smirking a little, though, when El Duque mopped up that inning for Marte and nailed the door shut on the Red Sox. I think the Yankees will end up trading Nady and keeping Swisher, as Nady is a FA after this season and appears to be generating more interest coming off a pretty strong season statistically for him. Contreras was mostly traded because he was completely melting down in head-to-head match-ups with the Red Sox, and showed no signs of turning the corner. In fact, things were getting cumulatively worse with each start, seemingly.

Wait a second, I want to see you defend Willie Bloomquist's contract!!! Neyer had a full blog on this for some reason, it was pretty funny actually...about how the Royals have wasted $10-12 million on a bunch of players that will have a marginal impact when they could have gotten an Abreu or Dunn. I think Bloomquist had something like one extra base hit all of last season? Is that possible? Or over his last 300+ AB's, or something very strange like that. Glavine, Byrd, Prior, Josh Fogg, Jamey Wright, Kip Wells, Bartolo Colon, Kenny Rogers, Odalis Perez, Sidney Ponson, Jon Lieber, El Duque, Tony Armas, Jr. One of the best defensive shortstops in the game. Has the capability of playing any of the difficult infield positions at a gold glove caliber level. Always been a good situational hitter. Always had good power. The White Sox had no other options at the time period. $4.5 million is a bargain for a stopgap starting shortstop, and now he's going to struggle to get $2 million after coming off his best season since 2005. This has been the one sweet spot for players (except for Uribe/Grudzielanek and Eckstein so far) in this strange market....the utility/middle infielder role is being a bit OVERVALUED by some GM's. Willie Bloomquist Nick Punto Aaron Miles Felipe Lopez Now if Juan Castro gets a $2 million dollar a year contract with a sub .600 OPS (I think that's lifetime!), then you'll have something. Or Pablo Ozuna...who is fighting a compelling battle to get the least walks in major league history with Tony Pena, Jr. for someone with 500+ career at-bats. Name me one starter that got $9 mill a year whose best year came 5 years prior to him signing that deal. Kerry Wood, Randy Johnson and Jamie Moyer are about the closest to answering that question...but each one has extenuating circumstances that are quite different from Tim Redding, who spent more time in the minors since 2004 than the majors I think.

I don't think the White Sox have the luxury of having a player like Young on the roster going forward. It's ONE thing if he's an everyday player in the middle of your infield, it's quite another at that salary to be putting up a .750 OPS and sitting in the dugout like Thome. Much of Young's value comes from leadership on the field and "presence," whatever the heck that is. We have to keep in mind that Thome, despite his contract, is essentially making $9 million per season, not something in the mid teens. To put it into perspective, the best starting pitcher left on the market, Derek Lowe, will be hard-pressed to get to $15 million per season. Why would a declining middle infielder whose best future position is 2B be in our plans when we have about 5 players cheaply signed for that position? Michael Young OBP in away/road games over the last three years=.338 Michael Young OPS in away/road games over the least three years=.730 .317/.681 (OBP/OPS) in away games for 2008 .365/.769 (OBP/OPS) in away games for 2007 .332/.749 (OBP/OPS) in away games for 2006 The guy will be 32 1/2 on Opening Day and is one of many Soriano-esque candidates to be a huge/complete drag on his team at the end of his contract. Think Todd Helton with Young, and multiply by a factor of 5-10. The worst part is we're going into the season with a marginal pitching rotation (at this point), a rotation that just lost its best strikeout pitcher. Somehow the idea of Ramirez/Young and lots of balls being put into play (along with Fields to their right) doesn't sound like the smartest idea in the world. This move would be worse than signing Willie Bloomquist, because at least the damage to the franchise would be minimal and he'd be cleared relatively quickly from the payroll, unlike Young. Charitably, about the ONLY that that would make sense is the Rangers eating about 30-40% of contract and us giving them back Dye in return. Or the Rangers eating part of the contract and getting Poreda back in return. But never, in any Twilight Zone-ish way, could it be both Dye and Poreda.

You don't even have to look any farther than the remainder of Young's contract and the "global financial crisis" to know this trade was dead in the water, and before Poreda's name was even mentioned. Abreu for 2 years, $16-18 million seems much more doable, however.

We've taken a number of players from the Yankees under Cashman, including El Duque (former Yankee) and most impactfully (is that a word?) Contreras, which really was the one that probably stuck in Cashman's craw the most. Any others? D'Angelo Jimenez was once a top Yankees prospect. The Swisher deal, of course. Marte used to be in their system as well before going to Pittsburgh and being "discovered" by KW and the scouting department. Yeah, we haven't done many trades with the Blue Jays since the Sirotka/Wells fiasco, the only one off the top of my head is Eyre/Glover? Of course, Gord Ash is long gone as their GM. Probably someday in the future the Braves will take another Kinzer/Tellem client and the big old world (and wheel) will keep spinning around. By the way, is former Sox Asst. GM and Dodgers' GM Dan Evans now working as an agent? Maybe he's trying to go the Jeffrey Moorad route...the most interesting thing in the world would be if Boras tried to run a major league team (like the Pirates or Royals). PS My real hope was just to get "dickallen" worked up over this new wrinkle in the Cabrera/KW/arbritration/Type A situation....an added twist.

In theory, let's say the Marlins needed a shortstop (we know they don't) and wanted to sign Cabrera to a two-year, $16 million deal -- but they didn't want to give up their top draft pick to do it. They could, in theory, pick up the phone and ask the Yankees to sign Cabrera to what the Marlins wanted to pay; the Yankees would give up only a fourth-round pick, and the Marlins could trade a prospect to the Yankees to offset the value of the fourth-round pick. Cabrera would have to waive his right to block the trade because any free agent signing a multiyear deal cannot be traded until June. In short, Cabrera could get the contract he wanted, the Marlins could get the player they wanted and the Yankees could get a little extra value for their fourth-round pick. Everybody would win except the White Sox (who presumably would be apoplectic, because they are in line to get a first-round pick). Makes some sense, eh? Well, in talking with executives and lawyers in baseball this week, they said the powers that be probably would greatly frown upon this type of system manipulation. And as one executive said, the teams involved, even by discussing the matter, might be guilty of collusion, in a winter in which there are rumblings on the union side about collusion. We'll see whether it comes up. from buster olney blog, www.espn.com

Well, that's the latest rumor...the Twins don't trust his back, certainly not enough to give him guaranteed money, and that there are plenty of other concerns, namely playing half his games on turf. So the NL seems a better place for Joe to re-establish himself with some big offensive numbers if he's really healthy.

I really HOPE it's NOT Livan Hernandez. He's one of the main reasons we were able to beat the Twins last year, his presence instead of Liriano in the middle months of the season. Well, then again, there's always a possibility Cabrera and Crede will be the new left side of the Twins' infield. It would just be very strange to see, especially Joe, that's for sure.

Back to the pitching dregs...who do we have left to target for that veteran 4/5 type? Ben Sheets (still probably too expensive, even on a one year deal) Pedro Martinez (maybe) Jason Jennings (maybe) Oliver Perez (too expensive) D. Lowe (too expensive, probably will get $42 million over 3 years from Braves, who are cornering pitching market) Garland (maybe, if he falls all the way to $5-6 million) Randy Wolf (maybe, if he falls to $5-6 million) Freddy Garcia (has anyone seen any recent health updates? is he done in Winter Ball or not?) Braden Looper (maybe) Mark Mulder (worth a look by some team willing to gamble with incentive-laced deal?) Bartolo Colon (ditto) The Red Sox are making some very interesting moves....throwing lots of darts against the wall with Penny, Saito, Kotsay and Baldelli and hoping at least two of them stick. High reward, fairly low risk moves for a team with a huge budget. I don't know, but I think even if you add in Smoltz, you might have all five of those players for the same price as Tex, Burnett or CC over one season. They've definitely shifted from the JD Drew/Dice-K big price tag FA's and are looking at developing talent internally or on the cheap signings like KW and the White Sox have been famous for. A couple of head scratchers...the middle infielders like Punto, Miles and Felipe Lopez signing for relatively big numbers compared to the recent deals we've seen the past week or so. FWIW, Saito is coming off injury and can make up to $7 million with incentives. Redding was MEH...even most Mets' fans would rather have Pedro back and risk the upside rather than what Redding's 88 MPH "heater" will give them. Redding didn't even come close to getting a look with the White Sox a couple of years ago. Now we might be even borderline to have him in the organization as additional depth.

QUOTE (103 mph screwball @ Jan 10, 2009 -> 07:17 PM) Very happy Soxtalk is back. I was worried that some big KW move would go down and I'd miss out on our analysis. Anybody heard any good hot stove rumors? Just the nonsense about our somehow taking on the outrageous contract of Michael Young, blowing another hole in our OF by trading Dye, and then also being asked to include Poreda to boot! Some more Crede to Twins rumors...but SF seems the more likely destination at this point. Cabrera, who knows where he, Garland or Uribe will end up. Griffey back to M's in the sentimental move?

I was so desperate for any new White Sox information I had to go to the Evil Empire of WSI. There were so many annoying posts that I wanted to make a comment, then I finally realized I banned myself for life, lol...I didn't realize how suffocating and ridiculous that site could be until I started reading threads there again. The "pack" mentality of jumping on posters there who question anything (the infamous Dark Clouds, I think fathom might be our closest!) about KW or the Sox is so irritating.

But isn't that exactly what we're going? I guess you can equate Westbrook with Contreras coming back in the middle of the season, although the odds are better for Jake. You can stack up Lee/Carmona against Buehrle/Danks/Floyd. That leaves you with Marquez/Poreda/Richard/Broadway versus Pavano/Laffey/Sowers/Jackson/Lewis/Reyes. Reyes had past success in the majors, and Lewis was really impressive down the stretch. I don't think much of Jackson, Laffey or Sowers at this point, but they all have a lot more big league experience than the four White Sox pitchers at the end of the rotation (maybe some Egbert fans really want to throw him into the mix too).