caulfield12

Watching (so to speak) on the Internet, it's like a freaking pinball game. I turned away from the computer for one second....OSU has a return for a touchdown. Bradford's rolling up and down the field like German Panzer tanks through Poland. With all the hype coming into today, most of the games were very boring, with the exceptions of GA/GT and KS/Missouri. I guess this game, if OU wins it, will leave a strong final impression in Bradford's favor...if only the OU defense can get a stop. It's going to be interesting to see which Missouri team shows up next week for the B12 Championship game. Start your arguments here....Texas or Oklahoma? My dad went to OU, so I'm not unbiased. I'm just happy because my Hawkeyes righted their sinking ship and OU got back into the NC picture after losing to TX. But I'm still not counting my chickens until they beat Missouri. I think there are still some scenarios where OU and TEX could play in the NC game if the other team made the champ. game and lost or didn't look very convincing in winning, correct?

Cricket players Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel, whom the Pirates signed as pitchers after they appeared on reality TV in India, were recommended by scout Ray Poitevint, whose stay with the Sox delivered few strong prospects. … Left-hander Tyler Lumsden, the key to the 2006 deal that sent Mike MacDougal from Kansas City to the White Sox, was traded by the Royals to Houston last week, clearing roster space. Unfortunately for the Sox, right-hander Dan Cortes, a lesser piece of the deal, has evolved into one of the Royals' top prospects. … Chone Figgins might be the most overrated big-leaguer. He and the Angels' other third basemen combined for three homers and 34 RBIs, the fewest homers from a group of third basemen since the 1992 Twins and fewest RBIs since the 1988 Orioles. Figgins' best tool is his speed, but Bill James rates him as only a plus-7 baserunner, the same as Aramis Ramirez and J.D. Drew. progers/chicagotribune I don't think our payroll would possibly come close to getting in the 50's, even with Contreras and Thome gone.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 11:02 PM) A deal for Javy should also include another young arm [who has thrown 100 + innings in the bigs] who could be the 4th/ 5th starter. I think an OFer could also be had in the deal, who could compete for a spot. Quentin would probably be moved to RF, as the sox would probably want a better athlete for LF and CF. Taveras would probably be in CF. I'd deal for a vet such as Duchscherer who could be a health risk [with his hip], yet has a big upside. But who are 1) we willing to trade without hurting our core, and 2) who would BB be willing to accept....for Duchscherer? Why would you trade him, if you were Beane, unless you thought he would never be the same pitcher he has been the past couple of seasons before his injury?

QUOTE (KevinM @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 10:46 PM) This works against your point. Of course baserunning is important, but being able to run the bases well far outpaces the ability to steal bases in terms of importance. So, just to clarify, you want Brian Anderson to be the starting CFer? Owens? A platoon? Please tell us who you would acquire to play CF, if not one of the above. And what players you'd be willing to give up.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 08:41 PM) I hope so. This rumor, if it is serious, at the very least shows how much Dye with his favorable contract is worth in this market. If the Sox are really interested in Bailey then I am too, because I very much trust their judgment on other teams' pitchers. Who would be your LFer then? Wise? Viciedo? Quentin? Fields? (assuming we move Carlos over to RF is most logical, if Dye were to be traded) Would you then go out and have the confidence to deal Vazquez and go with four youngsters in the rotation? Would you sign a veteran for the 5th spot just in case, or pray that Bailey and Richard/Poreda came through?

Looks like the OU/OSU game will go down to the wire. It seems this game is always a nail-biter for the Sooners on the road, no matter what the difference in talent between the two teams happens to be...OU's defense hasn't played nearly as well as it did last week. Once again, proof that winning on the road in college football is never easy.

Doing the little things: The "2009 Bill James Handbook" is recommended reading. There's a fascinating section on baserunning, which points out the World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies ran the bases better than any other team — not because they had the fastest players, but because their players made the most of whatever speed they had. James assigns a plus-minus number based on how often players went from first to third on singles, second to home on singles and first to home on doubles, among other things. Among the Phillies' ratings were Jimmy Rollins' plus-46, Shane Victorino's plus-34, Jayson Werth's plus-28 and Chase Utley's plus-21. Compare that to these regulars with the Cubs: Kosuke Fukudome plus-25, Mark DeRosa plus-13, Alfonso Soriano plus-12, Mike Fontenot plus-12, Ryan Theriot plus-7, Aramis Ramirez plus-7, Derrek Lee minus-9 and Geovany Soto minus-9. And these with the White Sox: Brian Anderson plus-12, Carlos Quentin plus-9, Jermaine Dye plus-1, Alexei Ramirez minus-1, Paul Konerko minus-7, Jim Thome minus-13 and A.J. Pierzynski minus-18. Pierzynski is on the short list of the worst quantifiably bad baserunners in the game. His rating speaks to his lack of aggressiveness, yet he had eight baserunning outs. The only players who had as low a rating and as many such outs were Prince Fielder (minus-22, nine) and Ramon Hernandez (minus-22, nine). I'll allow Bill James to make an argument for me here (and you could make an argument for the White Sox prying away Fukodome if the Cubs will eat half his salary)...we need more players here in the plus, not negative, category. The one number that really stands out, and I'm not sure I can explain it, is how Alexei Ramirez would be behind Dye in this category. I couldn't watch any games this season at all (being out the country)...is Ramirez tentative on the bases? I've seen him a couple of times, I know he has very good speed, and is the fastest player on the White Sox, followed by Wise and Anderson. Was he held up by Cora a lot?

QUOTE (KevinM @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 07:52 PM) Not true at all actually. Owens is faster than Anderson, yet Anderson has much, much better range due to his ability to read the ball off the bat. This is true, in a sense....quickness and getting good jumps are important to playing CF. However, you need to have really great "closing speed" to get to many balls in the gaps or balls hit over your head. Anderson is very good going backwards, but not quite as good side to side. But Anderson, while he USUALLY gets good jumps (not always), doesn't have the type of first step explosiveness and speed/burst to steal bases. It takes him a little longer to get started on the basepaths.

If it comes down to fans voting for Texas over OU because TT came out today flat and uninspired, knowing their route to the B12 championship was only about a 10-25% chance after being #1 in the country and controlling their own destiny...then there's something seriously wrong with the system.

QUOTE (knightni @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 08:19 PM) The man stole 35 in the light air of Denver and was only caught once. It's really hard to breathe and run a mile in the air. IT was all caused by adrenaline rushes (see Twilight) caused by the overenthusiastic Coors Field patrons who showed up as mostly empty seats for 2/3rds of the season when the Rockies were dead in the water.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 06:48 PM) That's true for anyone though. We saw what a hand/thumb injury did to Paulie last year. All it takes is something small for anyone, but Taveras doesn't have the injury history that Pods does. He'll be 28 next year so he's still young enough that we'd get him in his groin's prime. Plus, Taveras doesn't have quite as many miles on his tires. He spent so long in the minors, and he really wore down his body and his legs stealing bases, because that was the only way he could prove to the Mariners and then Brewers he belonged in the big leagues. Not to mention Paulie had the rib cage pull/tear and hurt his knee down the stretch. When he was closer to 100% in the final 6 weeks, he was back to the normal Konerko we've come to suspect.

QUOTE (sircaffey @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 06:44 PM) Not only that, but one tweak of the groin sends Taveras from a modestly acceptable player to nothing. We saw what being bothered by a leg injury did to Podsednik in 2006. Taveras is only effective at 100%. Over an 162 game season, even more with playoffs, that is quite the risk. Having 100% of your effectiveness based on your legs is a recipe for disaster. Well, then we should trade away Thome, Dye, AJ and Konerko because they're MORE likely to get injured...and Vazquez, Buehrle and especially Jenks because they too are injury risks. You take away the legs of Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes, they're going to be dramatically less effective as hitters and fielders as well. Nobody can play well with injuries. However, when you have a younger/speedier/more athletic team, the odds are in your favor, and having one fast player on your team go down won't cripple your entire line-up. This is more how the Angels and Rays attack other teams. Actually, the Red Sox with Ellsbury are fairly similar...although I'm sure we could have another LONG debate/thread comparing Ellsbury to Taveras too.

QUOTE (KevinM @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 06:37 PM) It would have been fine with me. Unfortunately, Nick had a rather bad season. Of course, you're probably going off last year's numbers only -- something you wouldn't want us to do for Taveras. The point is that Swisher has never been a leadoff hitter and that's not a place where he is comfortable. You can't fit a round peg in a square hole. We kind of saw that with Cabrera leading off...or AJ hitting second. They were so-so, but there are many out there who could have done better. Swisher, obviously not being one of them. Taveras is, and he's coming off a so-so season. If we always wanted to acquire talent at it's highest possible value, and not expect it to fall in value but continue rising, KW should quit playing General Manager and just go to work not for Warren Buffett but for Obama, because it's going take that level of intelligence (someone who's always right about the future) and prescience to get us out of this financial/economic mess.

QUOTE (KevinM @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 06:30 PM) He's only done this once, in a 97 game season. The likelihood of him eclipsing .300/.340 in a full season is minimal at best. OBP absolutely trumps SLG%, that's irrefutable. Leadoff isn't a position, it's simply a spot in the order, one that doesn't matter much as a player leads off once (!) a game. The important thing is finding a high OBP player to put there, not a fast guy with a terrible OBP. Maybe we should try Nick Swisher there. He has a REALLY high career OBP. Great, problem solved! Let's dance! Cue David Bowie soundtrack. Everybody Wang Chung tonight. THIS DEBATE IS MORE FUN/AMUSING THAN debating what the government here in Thailand will do to open the Bangkok airport.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 06:15 PM) Why do you have to be such a turd sandwich then? That is your opinion that OBP trumps SLG%. I'd say it does in certain positions in the order, like say Mike Jacobs can fit his power and very low OBP in the #6 slot of a team much better than a guy who gets on and doesn't have power could. For lead-off OBP does trump SLG which makes it stupid that I keep seeing comments about SLG% and OPS regarding a lead-off spot. You do not need to hit home runs if you lead off, and you don't need a whole lot of triples or doubles if you can steal efficiently. I don't know how you can say Willy offers no OBP skills. He makes contact, he does walk some, and his speed allows him to hit for a higher average than most players because he can put down bunts and beat them out. His average strongly affects his OBP and if he hits .320, which he did in '07 and can do again, he'll get on at a .360-.370 clip. It is a lot easier for a player like him to hit .310-.320 because he can put bunts down when the IF are playing back, or hit the ball past him when they come in and give up range. You mean our CF doesn't have to be a combination of Rickey Henderson (1980), Alphonso Soriano and Grady Sizemore, with a Brady Anderson steroids year thrown in for good measure??? C'mon. Obviously, there are many CFers out there with Roberto Clemente's arm, Mickey Mantle's speed, Joe Borchard's raw power, Devon White's defensive prowess and a combination of Brett/Boggs/Ichiro/Gwynn at the plate. With Ripken's history of resisting injuries and playing through pain. And he must have Kirby Puckett's infectious personality thrown in for good measure.

I think if we substituted Pods' numbers over his career before he came to the White Sox, nobody would have been very excited to acquire him. In fact, most were griping/complaining about losing El Caballo and replacing him with a zero power hitter. SPEED NEVER SLUMPS. DEFENSE NEVER SLUMPS. HAVING A GOOD ARM DOESN'T DISAPPEAR EITHER, ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS. (Of these three, Owens gives you ONLY one thing, because his CF defense is so-so or adequate, partially because of his arm but other deficiencies exist as well...TAVERAS GIVES YOU ALL THREE ON A CONSISTENT BASIS). Point 2, Jerry Owens isn't a reasonable facsimile of Wily Taveras. And it's not that close. Just ask KW or anyone with the White Sox FO. Sure, we can pick apart Taveras' 2007 season, but if we went by one season, Jon Danks would have been horrible in 2008 based on his 2007 numbers and Gavin Floyd never would have been acquired based on his past MLB stats. Alexei Ramirez would have been playing in Winston-Salem or Birmingham, based on "conventional" wisdom.

QUOTE (sircaffey @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 04:46 PM) Orlando isn't exactly slow. Trading him out for a worse hitter who doesn't walk that is a step faster isn't going to fix the problem. I just see no way Taveras fixes the problem atop of the order. He may end up being the best option, but he's not the solution (nor an improvement, imo). Three steps faster...there's a big difference psychologically. Opposing teams would never be afraid of Cabrera coming up to bat. They might be of Pods, Carlos Gomez/Denard Span, Taveras, etc.

Taveras DOES change that, if you have Tadahito Iguchi from 2005/06 batting second. Jumping out in front in the beginning of games and having a bullpen that could consistently hold 1-2 run leads from the get-go did wonders for that team's confidence and ultimately is the reserve they drew upon to push through in September and October. They believed if they had any lead they would win that game. That's why manufacturing runs (especially without the benefit of a hit) in the early innings was so important...to put pressure on the other team. I agree bunting is not always the panacea, and should not be overdone, but nothing puts fear in another team (and its pitcher) more than a leadoff hitter that you know is going to bunt but you still might not be able to throw him out...and once he gets on, it's an automatic double or triple and the pitcher's distracted already and throwing out of the stretch to the meat of the order. Which also will lead to more fastballs, which those hitters thrive on.

If Ramirez doesn't backslide and become the next Mike Caruso, lol. Actually this whole theory about high OBP would have been interesting to test, had Swisher actually turned out to be capable of doing that...it's not only finding high OPB players, but high OBP players that are comfortable and effective in the 1 and 2 spots in the batting order. AJ batting second out of necessity is an example. Right now, the best possibilities that are both highly unlikely are Taveras/Cabrera (neither one of them would be guaranteed of being over .330 OBP in my opinion) and Taveras/Ramirez (once again, how is Ramirez going to be able to get to a .330 OBP without walking?)

QUOTE (Fotop @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 04:27 PM) Sign me up for anything that involves Yunel Escobar. If we're concerned about a ramirez/escobar dp combo blocking beckham...they can always move alexei to cf when the moment arrives. I think Escobar is a hell of a ballplayer though and the type of guy we need to target if we're actually going to move dye. This is where a Blanco/Escobar trade for Dye and Jenks makes a heck of a lot of sense (hopefully we do this deal without including Fields or Poreda as well). However, if we have to give up Vazquez instead of Jenks, it creates another set of problems, because we'd be in trouble (arguably) replacing two starting pitchers. Then again, KW would have another $15-20 million to play around with...which could be interesting, to say the least. The Padres absolutely believe Cubs GM Jim Hendry can make this a three-way trade to get the Padres the pitching they need in addition to third-base prospect Josh Vitters. The Braves were not going to have to surrender any of their five best prospects, but have hesitated over Class A-level pitching. Peavy is a Cy Young winner, in case anyone's forgotten. from espn.com/peter gammons one would believe this makes a deal attractive to KW, unless he gets Blanco at a minimum and a AA/AAA prospect, like the young catcher, Flowers I think his his name?

Ramirez continues to produce phenomenal all around numbers in front of crowds more appropriate for professional bowling and the national spelling bee. What would the baseball landscape look like if Ramirez was being protected by David Ortiz in the heart of the Boston order and hitting balls off a Monster that is dark green rather than teal? Would the Red Sox have won the World Series in 2007 with a 3-4-5 of Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, but no Josh Beckett? Would they have been able to come back in the ALCS without Beckett's unbelievable performances? With that offense, would they be down 3-1 in the first place? from same article Interesting things to ponder in the midst of hot stove season.

But why would you trade the relative certainty of Dye or Vazquez for someone who might never be the same again? I could see trading Jenks for Duchscherer (as part of a package)...I also think BB is too smart to give away Justin at such a point. It would be like the White Sox trying to trade Crede after the 2007 season. They simply have to wait and see if he can re-establish his value. The risk of getting nothing for him is less than the risk that he returns to form and they miss out on the kind of trade return that could really impact their future performance positively.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 04:13 PM) Mike Cameron and his .331 OBP? You're saying that somehow I'm supposed to find that to be good? Well, maybe compared to what Taveras did last year, but still... Exactly, the point is HOW DIFFICULT it is to find someone...the magic, pristine bullet theory. He's not out there...so we will have to accept some imperfections in our leadoff hitter. Of all those players, either they are currently unavailable (aka "dream/roto/playstation") acquisitions or they're flawed. Mike Cameron, at his age, and coming from the NL to the AL, would I want that? Well, I would probably choose that over an Anderson/Owens platoon, but not by much more than a whisker. He has a little bit left in his tank, but to stand the wear and tear of batting leadoff in the AL again and playing CF every day? Doubt it. I don't think KW is giving Cameron much if any consideration either. Now, OTOH, Blanco is an interesting target and his name logically pops up in a possible Jenks/Vazquez/Dye deal to the Braves. The only other obvious possibility is another thread figuring out what can be done to make Michael Bourn Supremacy a .340-.350 OBP type of player.

Of course, going back to Pods' 2005, we don't really have an obvious Iguchi-type hitter on the team either...definitely not AJ. Ramirez is a candidate...but do you want someone with his potential ability thinking about sacrificing and giving up so many at-bats? Do you want to consciously change the more aggressive nature of his approach by putting him in the 2 spot? It's almost funny to even consider it, but this line-up would be best (with Taveras as the leadoff hitter) with Orlando Cabrera batting second. And Brian Anderson is definitely NEVER going to be either a 1 or 2 hitter in the big leagues on his best day.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/battin...ull&minpa=0 According to the theories of some people here on the board, using OBP as the holy grail and only measure, we should get either Gregor Blanco or Mike Cameron. Cody Ross, McLouth and Matt Kemp are going to be prohibitively expensive to acquire. Go to that page and tell me what players the White Sox realistically have a shot at??? Taveras was at least better than Carlos Gomez at getting on base and wouldn't cost us very much at all. Maybe he's Option C or D, but he has to be on the radar screen. As much as we're complaining about him, I can't imagine the complaints after KW trades away the farm system again for Brian Roberts. Otherwise, we are going to have to target someone like Dickerson without much of an established track record...who may or may not be better than Jerry Owens as a leadoff hitter and CFer.