caulfield12

QUOTE(Vance Law @ Mar 27, 2007 -> 11:20 AM) Precisely. Thank you hitlesswonder. But you could do the same thing for Jermaine Dye or Frank Thomas over similar lead-up periods to their 2006 seasons and nothing would predict what they accomplished, particularly Thomas. Erstad is still relatively young...I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and side with OG and KW on this one.

QUOTE(Controlled Chaos @ Mar 27, 2007 -> 10:48 AM) Dude, you are like the epitome of what a new poster should be. Kudos and welcome to the board. Thanks, I've posted for the last year and a half or so at WSI. I used to fight with ncorgbl on chisox.com for about 4 years. There aren't many good posters left at chisox.com (baggio is one), too many trolls and kids. I'm a teacher and coach now in Kansas City. Prior to that, I was Director of PR and Stadium Operations for the Augusta GreenJackets in 1994 and 1995, right after grad school. We were with the Pittsburgh Pirates at that point and won the SAL championship in 95. I got to know Dye (Macon), Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero when they were just babies (Dye used my office phone, lol) and spent a lot of time with the mercurial, always-interesting Jose Guillen.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 27, 2007 -> 10:22 AM) Actually, I think that in equal number of at bats, Erstad would have about 10% lower RBI than Iguchi, assuming injuries haven't cost Erstad anything. Just from comparing Erstad's best 4 years since 2000, not the injury-shortened seasons, and Iguchi's last 2 years, Erstad has generated 10% fewer RBI than Iguchi overall. The reason Erstad's numbers are almost to where Iguchi's are is that Erstad's seasons have been 650-700 plate appearance seasons while Iguchi's have been 550-600 plate appearance seasons. I think for 500 plate appearances in a good season, assuming he hasn't lost anything and isn't nagged by injuries all year, Erstad might put up 50-55 RBI, 5-6 home runs, and about 10-12 steals. Of course, that's also assuming he has someone on base to actually drive in> Even beyond the health concerns...what do we expect the OF to look like when we see a Left Hander on the mound? It's going to be ozuna/Anderson/Dye almost certainly...so we finally do have a RH hitting OF out there. Hopefully he gets the starting spot pretty quick and doesn't let go this time. Not quite. If you average 01-05 for Erstad...once again, not including 2000. 523 AB 143.4 H .274 BA 7 HR 58 RBI 16.4 SB

QUOTE(hitlesswonder @ Mar 27, 2007 -> 09:25 AM) Erstad's stats from 2001 are clustered much closer together than his 2000 .900 OPS year. I think it's safe to ignore a career year from 7 years ago in predicting his performance for 2007. Erstad from 2001 through 2006 hit .270 with a .323 OBP and .693 OPS, with about 13 SBs a season. Iguchi so far in the AL has hit .280 with a .347 OBP and .780 OPS with 13 SBs a season. One hundred points of OPS is a big difference, and Iguchi will have a higher OBP this year than Erstad IMO. I think having Erstad hit #2 is bad decision. If you take those numbers from 01-05 and "extrapolate" them (because he had under 500 at-bats in one or two of those years), I think what we would expect in SB's comes closer to 18, around 8 homers, pretty similar RBI numbers to what Iguchi has put up. As DJ said, he's not afraid to drive in a run.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 11:36 PM) They'd rather spend their late 1st round picks on safe pitchers who will travel through the system quickly and hold solid trade value then later trade off these meh starters for failed former top 15 picks who have great arms but s*** control and mechanics then allow the major league coaching staff to fix their mechanics and refine their control turning them into quality major league arms. I'm not so sure this method has ever even been put to use by the organization but it seems to be the plan. Then you need the White Sox to bottom out and get a Top 10 draft pick for the first time in almost 20 years, since the Himes Regime. We've been too good or "mediocre" during that time span, I think we're third to the Braves and Yankees for wins during that time period (1990-2006), a trivia question almost no baseball fan would get right. We've had our share of disappointments, due to non-performance and injuries.....notably Stumm, Honel, Malone, Rauch, Danny Wright, Barcelo, Ginter, Guerrier, Myette, Liotta, Brian West. We've also drafted kids with potential (Russell, McCarthy) in lower rounds, but KW has gone for collegiate pitchers like Ring, Broadway and McCullogh, pitchers that will probably make the majors but not All-Stars...more like 4/5 types, you can include Haeger and Phillips in that mix as well. Loaiza, Contreras and Thornton have been the biggest successes for Cooper. The jury's still out on Vazquez. When you consider we've produced Crede, a fourth outfielder (Rowand), Buehrle and little else, and our biggest impact player (Borchard) was a complete bust, KW has done an amazing job filling in those gaps with small and big trades to compensate for a bottom third minor league system (since 2000-01). QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 11:49 PM) As much as I have slurped Floyd, he has been pretty much mediocre as hell so far. I haven't been able to watch him pitch - something about not working and being in school and $120 is a lot of money and beer - but from what it sounds like, his stuff is OK, but he's been conservative as hell and is nibbling. That's the mentality that needs to be changed at AAA. If it's also mechanics, whatever, get that fixed too. Guys with stuff that are that close aren't bad choices to make, but you should never make them cornerstone pieces of deals, like as with the Garcia trade. The Sox should have gotten him for someone like Egbert or Haeger, not a guy who was solid, though unspectacular and declining last year in Freddy Garcia. Thornton, however, was a brilliant pickup, and what I've said above is not to say Floyd can't become a back end or even front end starter; it just means you can't put all your eggs into the basket of a guy who had a 4.23 ERA in AAA last year. I know the Sox got Gio back as well, but right now he is easily the biggest boom or bust prospect in the entire Sox system. That's not exactly the type of trade you want for a middle of the rotation starting pitcher. The Phillies wanted to dump Floyd on someone else, and this allowed them to save face. He just needed a change of environment, similar to Borchard and Thornton last spring. The key part of the deal was Gio. And where would we be with Garcia right now? The same place that everyone suspected, a pitcher throwing 80-84/85 MPH and relying on breaking stuff and maybe on the DL or facing season-ending surgery for an impingement in his shoulder. We're better off with Gio NOW than waiting 3-4 years for a pitcher or two that MIGHT develop into something of use. Anything we can get out of Floyd or Rasner is a bonus.

QUOTE(hitlesswonder @ Mar 27, 2007 -> 08:35 AM) Erstad has proven he's not a good hitter. His OBP/OPS in recent years have been: 2001 .331 .691 2002 .313 .702 2003 .309 .642 2004 .346 .746 2005 .325 .696 2006 .279 .605 That's not good. Why is he an ideal #2 hitter? I would consider OBP the most important factor for a #2 hitter, and Erstad is not good at getting on-base. I really would rather have Iguchi hitting at #2. And please don't take all this as me suggesting Anderson is good -- he's not. But Erstad isn't either. He's not worth $10 million per season at this point, but we're getting him for a bargain price. And his statistics (even if you leave out 2000 and "average" 2001-2005) are pretty similar to what Iguchi does, albeit less power and more stolen bases. I'm sure we would love for BA to play 145 games and put up Iguchi-esque numbers, right? He's the ideal number two hitter because he's going to play the game the way it's supposed to be played and do the little things that don't show up in the box score. His leadership will rub off on the rest of the line-up, and his level of play will be elevated by being healthy, playing CF again and playing in the best division in baseball. It's a challenge to any athlete, and I think he will respond favorably. Still, it really doesn't matter what BA or DE do if Jenks, Buehrle and Contreras all fail to pitch like they are capable of pitching.

QUOTE(beck72 @ Mar 27, 2007 -> 07:47 AM) Look at their major league stats, and how many AB's they've had in the bigs. They've had struggles. But they have proven they can have success in the bigs. Erstad not a proven veteran? He's proven that he's had problems staying healthy, but he has been a productive player (not just 2000) when he was able to play at 100%. If nothing else, he's a Gold Glover at two positions and a very solid player fundamentally who is ideally suited for the 2 hole. Pods in 2006 form doesn't help the ballclub enough to offset his tentativeness in stealing and defense and lack of power. But we're not ready to run Sweeney or Fields out there everyday either. And a Mack/Ozuna platoon doesn't excite me much either, that's just a stopgap measure. QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 27, 2007 -> 07:48 AM) I don't think Terrero is in the plans anymore, so if the Sox could get something for him, they probably would. Welcome to the board, by the way. Terrero was one of those low risk-high reward moves like Escobar (who got us Owens) that we had nothing to lose on, and his presence also might have helped to motivate BA, if he needed it. Well, one thing NOT to worry about is KW bringing back Olivo! It will be interesting to see what move he can brew up to replace Molina or Wiki, I'm not sure how comfortable he will be with AJ hitting against the division's lefties and wearing down in the 2nd half. AJ is one year older, and he's too valuable offensively to overplay.

QUOTE(fathom @ Mar 27, 2007 -> 07:44 AM) As Pods proved during the 2nd half last year, his basement is about as low as it gets in the majors. At least you always have a dependable defensive player if Anderson is in the game. Of course, the odds are pretty high that Pods or Erstad will get injured sometime this year. Supposedly, Ozuna had a great defensive play in CF in one of the minor league games, but Pablo still gives me nightmares of Hall at 1B, Dye at SS or Brian Daubach or Ross Gload in CF.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Mar 27, 2007 -> 07:06 AM) I think of the three, BAs upside is higher, but his basement is lower, and he's proven that. This is a safe pick eary versus a gamble on ehich player will show up. The best place for him to play his way into the starting lineup may not be on the 25, but we will see. A lot will depend, as noted earlier, on how often he gets penned into the lineup and if he'll get to take an AB or two. Ninth inning Def sub may not help in that regards. As far as radar readings, who's been down, with the exception of Jenks, who has been topping out at 93/94 so far? Garland, despite his supposed "injury" problem, has been right around 88-91, which is just a little lower than normal. He's never been a power pitcher anyway. I know they've been impressed with Masset and Sisco most of the time...is Aardsma struggling too with velocity? Russell has definitely been a pleasant surprise on the "plus" side with his fastball and new arm angles elevating him perhaps to just below Danks/Gio/Floyd and ahead of the Broadway/Haeger/Phillips/McCullogh starting groups in terms of potential. EDIT: What are the odds we lose Terrero to another team? 50%? Obviously KW isn't too concerned with losing him, or he would have sent BA down instead.