michelangelosmonkey

Why would someone need to take on those deals? Grandal seems like he will continue to have value through his contract (splitting catcher next year with Collins...and DH, 1b etc going forward). Keuchel is really only guaranteed 2022 (from my understanding has to pitch 160 innings next year to vest for 2023). Having him and Kopech split innings next year seems fine...and if not...honestly on a staff with Gio, Lynn, Cease, Kopech, Rodon he's your 6th choice so I can see the Sox wanting to trade him and I think for a lot of contending teams he would be a great 4th or 5th starter. Flip him for a couple of 19 year olds.

I guess my "overly pessimistic" comment is about your cap at $160 million. I just want to reiterated the point that JR is a businessman and his goal is to make money. As I look at Sox attendance history it suggests that at that stadium for the last 25 years the floor of attendance is about 20,000 fans...meaning good years or bad 20,000 fans will come out just for the joy of baseball. If you figure a fan is worth $75...ticket, parking, food, pro shop, etc...that suggests an annual attendance revenue of $120 mill. With radio and TV rites you figure that is about what it costs to maintain a 15th overall payroll (basically where the Sox have been). JR understands that the difference between a 65 win team and a 85 win team is probably almost nothing in revenue...so when the team is down he has no real incentive to boost up spending on free agents etc. But he also understands that when the team is going good attendance goes with it. White Sox peak attendance was 2006 post World series glory at 36,500. I think the excitement for this team...with all the young personable stars...will come close to that. So I arbitrarily used the number of 35,000. Let's say for the next five years (2022 and on) they average 35,000 always go to the playoffs and win a WS. An extra 15,000 fans a game comes out to $90 million +. Add in 5 playoff games, $100 per fan with 40,000 fans in attendance is another $20 mill a year bringing us to an annual extra $110,000,00 additional revenue Do you think it's crazy to think the White Sox will spend half of that on player contracts? That's an extra $55 million which will take the White Sox to about a top 5 payroll...as I suggested. Add in the fact that they know they saved a couple of hundred million over the last five years with super low payrolls (not much effect on attendance) and the Sox have money to spend and have SAID they will spend money. If JR is a smart business man (which I think he is) he should be cheap in the down years and spend in the good years...which is exactly what the data shows. And now we are at a possible turning point for the franchise...possibly the greatest assemblage of talent in 100 years + most of them super young and super cheap+ no currently bad long term contracts + coming out of the pandemic+ Cubs starting a rebuild + millennials changing the face of Chicago...It's not impossible that hitting the accelerator now flips White Sox floor level attendance to more like the Cubs floor attendance for the last 25 years of about 30,000 fans...add in TV and Radio rights increasing. Honestly the argument against them spending a LOT more is something like "JR has a map to a gold mine but is too cheap to buy a shovel". The truth will come out in the next few months but I am very bullish.

I think you are overly pessimistic about the size of the payroll going forward...JR has, many times, had a top 5-7 payroll over the last 30 years...he's a smart business man and I think he sees he could have a gold mine here...Cubs look to be headed into a 5 year down cycle...Sox have a LOT of exciting young players...COVID is over...I could see 35,000 per game attendance in 2022 and TV ratings boom as the city shifts to a Sox focus. That means money will be pouring in...and right now a top 5 payroll is $185 million. That means Sox have an upside of $50 million from this year...so fitting in Rodon and Lynn sure seems possible.

I think Engel's 12 homers over his last 200 at bats and plus speed and plus defensive are intriguing because he doesn't cost anything. But as you have pointed other in an earlier post...we have babied Engel and put him in highly favorable pitching matchups...so you can't just extrapolate with an expanded role. Gallo gives you 40 homer power, lots of walks plus defensive and a lefty bat and fairly cheap for the next year and a half. I would be super excited about that...but not at any price. I don't really want to give up Crochet. He seems too obviously special. If you can get him for Burger (talk about playing with house money), Lopez and Kelly I think that would be fair...maybe through in Elijiah Tatis as a wild card. Then start clearing a place on the mantelpiece for the WS trophies the next two years.

I think that's fair which is what is going to make this year's trade deadline/next off season so interesting. RH has said "the money will be spent". I have been a big proponent of protecting your financial assets until you really need them...so I was fine with them not burning the extra money this past off season...I just didn't believe that 2021 was the "all in" year...as you could expect growing pains from Madrigal, Robert, Vaughn, Collins, Eloy, etc. But as the team locomotive seems to be building a head of steam this is the offseason to prove it. If the Sox had signed Machado or Harper three years ago their financial flexibility is gone. But it should be there now...so let's say Rodon continues doing 2021 Rodon the rest of the season...pitches 180 innings and finished with a 6 WAR....no arm trouble. Now there is no excuse for not giving him, say, a 4 year $100 million contract...after all given the construct of the team...locking in a dominating under 30 left handed starter for four years is exactly what they need. If management lets him walk...and Lynn walk...and doesn't trade for or sign an expensive replacement...well then I'm ready to join the JR haters that he's cheap and will never pay. I just think the team will pay to keep this group going.

You are generally one of my favorite posters...but I think two things are unfair...1) suggesting the Tatis disaster was some sort of systematic failure. Red Sox traded 80 career WAR Jeff Bagwell to Houston for 22 innings of Larry Anderson...that was a systematic failure...trading the 30th ranked prospect in all of baseball for a middle reliever in a walk year was bad thinking. Like trading Cespedes for Ian Kennedy...so risky. And I know you hated the James Shields trade but the Sox throwing in a nobody that was available a month before to any MLB team that was willing to pay chump change for him wasn't risky...until it was a total disaster. Including a lottery ticket in a birthday card is a funny joke until it hits for $100 million...and then it's the dumbest thing you ever did. Everyone feels bad about the bad luck...but every single trade any team ever makes has the chance of blowing up. 2) listing the "failures of the rebuild" as some kind of evidence of organizational incompetance. Signing crappy free agents was the plan...running out bad players was the plan. Losing lots of games for five years, while painful, was the plan. Now we are witnessing the plan succeeding. As for trusting JR...I think he's a businessman and I think he loves the White Sox...he wants to win but has a budget. They did have some sustained success...that five years from 90-94 they won an average of 90 games a year...culminating in the greatest team I ever saw...that never had a chance to win because of the strike. 2000-2006 they also won about 90 games a year including winning a WS. Hey it's not a glorious franchise but it's ours...and now is our time in the sun...dunking on something as silly as someone's evaluation of our 20 year old prospects seems mean.

Ohmigod Cali this is the most ridiculous negative post. We have the top record in all the AL and Bill James, the father of sabermetrics, says players hit their prime at 27. Here are the Sox 27 or younger on the roster NOW....that's 15 guys...and those are almost all of our star players...and they are JUST BEGINNING. We have five years with just this group. Garrett Crochet 22 Andrew Vaughn 23 Luis Robert 23 Codi Heuer 24 Eloy Jiminez 24 Nick Madrigal 24 Michael Kopech 25 Dylan Cease 25 Gavin Sheets 25 Jake Burger 25 Lucas Giolito 26 Matt Foster 26 Jose Ruiz 26 Yoan Moncada 26 Zack Collins 26 You know why our Farm system is ranked so poorly?? Because our young guys are SO good they are in the majors. Man if you want to continue to sour puss over the random bad luck of Tatis...or the possibility that the White Sox won't sign free agents even though there is lots of evidence that they will (top five pay roll in 00's, 90's and 80's when the team was competitive...Sox are currently $50 MILLION under the top five payroll) go for it. But almost all evidence is the team is on the cusp of greatness and I'd sure like more of the regulars on Soxtalk to recognize that.

Moncada is getting on base 40% of the time, is a plus defensive fielder and is making as much in salary in 21+22+23 as Machado is making this year. He's put up a .550 Slugging percent just two years ago...and he's only 26. Jake Burger is 25. Do you really want to trade Moncada?? Do you really think other teams wouldn't be interested in him?

200 consecutive at bats (now 12 home runs btw) over three seasons...at what point is it no longer a fluke? Everything's a leap of faith...2018 NL MVP (and 2nd in 2019) is probably available.

And hiring TLR was "moronic". Thanks again for your wisdom. (note WS top five payroll in 00's, 90's and 80's when the team was competitive )

Over the last 200 at bats for Engel...2021, 2020 and Sept/Oct 2019...he's slashing .278/.319/.500...10 doubles and 11 homers. Plus great speed and gold glove defense....why do we need a right fielder again?

And Engel.

I've thought the same thing...but Robert covers so much ground in CF. With all the shifting baseball does and as fast as Engel and Robert are...i wonder if you could play Robert as the RCF and Engel as the LCF and have Jiminez just stand on the LF foul line and tell him not to move unless it's hit right at him.

Since Sept 2019...Engel has 10 home runs in 184 at bats....slashing .280/.330/.495...and playing gold glove defense. I know they have babied him by giving him favorable matchups...and its still only a couple of hundred at bats...but at some don't you give him a 60 game, play every day, stretch to see if we may have something really interesting here?

Phillies have 5th highest payroll in baseball...and they are a .500 team this year, sub .500 last year and .500 in 2019. Their rebuild has been a disaster. Bryce Harper as our RF for the next ten years?? As a trade would be salary cap relief for them so I'm not sure it would take much in prospect capital. Engel, Burger and one of the HS pitchers?

I would like to add that if you let me have ONE of Rodon, Cease, or Kopeck as playoff starter then we have still have four very good starters. And certainly at the start of the year we thought this would be an offensive team...and by October we could have well rested Robert and Jiminez added to a top three offense. Plus I think we add at the TDL. As I've often said...Sox had top 5 payroll in 00's, 90's and 80's when the team was good. No reason to believe JR will be cheap here.

Yes I think Calisoxfan has done a nice job arguing that. But the other thing is...these guys have been throwing their whole lives. Chris Sale went from 23 inning to 71 innings to a decade of 200 innings. Rodon has had injuries but like I argued in an earlier thread...someone like Mike Minor had a career of injuries but then when he turned 30 he had a couple of 28 start/175 inning seasons/5 WAR seasons. Cease was on pace last year for a 160 innings...it was just COVID. They are young and strong and stretched out. Kopech and Crochett are obviously different...but I'm not counting on them. Maybe they get tired out at the end of the year but every baseball team has the same concerns.

Agreed...I mean there are a lot of days where Cease or Rodon go out there and I think...this is the day where the magic ends. But the optimist in me thinks...it happens...these two guys have always had amazing stuff, they have a new pitching coach...why not? If Cease and Rodon turn back into pumpkins in September, obviously the team won't win. But maybe this is the year where, like Gio in 2019, it all comes together.

It's fine to be aggressively pessimistic. Dodgers won 302 games in three year stretch 17-19 and didn't win the WS. I think it is unlikely that the Sox win the WS just because it's baseball and once you get to the playoffs randomness happens. That happens every year to every playoff team...so I'm not sure at any point for any future White Sox team you can say...yup...this is the one that's going to win. Like wise I don't think you can count this team out because Rodon didn't use to pitch like this, or Kopech and Crochett are young. This team, at this moment, is great and has a chance to be greater...you should be enjoying it.

And they are 23-10 with a 2.60 ERA. Honestly it's like throwing an ace out every game in a short series. The defense is good, the offense has scored the third most runs in baseball. And I'm not even counting Keuchel or Kopeck...and Robert and Jiminez are probably going to be back. If not now, when?

I saw four different Vegas odds sights and all four had the White Sox as the most likely AL team to make the WS. I'm not saying they will win...I'm saying the idea that "the team isn't ready" seems confidently pessimistic. I'm not sure I've ever seen four starting pitchers as consistently dominant as this group has been. Combined 275 innings, 1 WHIP, 88BB/350K. If they started the playoffs tomorrow I'd be as confident as one can be given the randomness of baseball.

I feel like this is not going to be the best Sox team in the five year window...but to be confident that they won't win the WS...with the way Lynn, Cease, Rodon and Gio have been pitching? Dominant starting pitching can take a team a long way...look at 2005 WS winner.

Did Collins run over your dog or something? Every time he catches you have multiple posts about how bad he is at everything. Yet team ERA when he catches is under 3...and his OPS is just under .700. Back up catcher hatred is odd.

I'm sorry but you never answered my question. Maybe you are just too childish. It shows the weakness of your mind that you are afraid to even confront the very real and serious issues I've raised. You are always obfuscating by answering my question with a question about your questioning questions.

Right? I can't get over how good Narvaez has turned out. Collins, Yermin and I think Seby has some kind of major league career.