michelangelosmonkey

Haha...just came over to read some positivity about a REALLY fun team that has an amazing future and I see it's been hijacked by Ragah telling everyone they are stupid and wrong and the team is probably headed for disaster. We just went into Minnesota...without Jimenez, Abreu, Robert and Engel and we beat them two out of three and they were lucky to win one. The good times are here...rejoice...and yes the bad times may be ten minutes down the road but for now best record in baseball tastes pretty good.

Lot of hatred in the game thread about Collins...Baron makes multiple posts about Collins being worst catcher in baseball every time he catches...making me wonder if Zack has run over Baron's dog or something. Still Collins got on base twice, his OPS is .700 (which is hard for a guy that plays twice a week) and the pitchers ERA when he catcher is under 3.00...including the no-hitter. Lefty power hitter, good batting eye and seemingly calls a good game...lots of value in that.

Sorry I just got out of the time machine from January 2020 and streets are empty and the few out are wearing masks, Tony La Russa is the manager and the Sox outfield is Vaughan, Leury and Mendick. So...post apocalypse?

Wait....I'm confused are you suggesting TLR can't get around on a fastball anymore? Thank god we have age limits on US Presidents because god knows how they would hit the curve in their mid 70's. So there is no room for confusion by argument is DON'T MAKE CONCLUSIONS BASED ON SMALL SAMPLE SIZES...baseball players, managers, teachers, sales guys. Lots of randomness. As for Tatis...listen you have the stronger argument...Tatis in March was a transcendent talent...an uber god of baseball that we are creating a new wing for in Cooperstown. He's had a rough April defensively and offensively. He's had a lot of injuries (and yes we can say the same thing for Robert and Jiminez...we should hold off on the Hall of Fame ceremony for a little while). He would not be the first baseball player that had an amazing 160 game stretch and fail...he would not be the first Domincan player to use steroids. He would not be the first guy to start at SS and flame out because he can't field the position. He's a slightly better hitter at this point than Eloy, one year younger...and given a contract worth $250 million more. That's what would worry me as a Padre fan.

Sorry I was using an analogy and you clearly missed it. My POINT was that it's only 23 games...it is baseball...we cannot make conclusions based on small sample sizes. TLR is not a failure because of a couple of heartbreaking losses in April...Tatis is not a failure because of 23 games in April. Still it would be fair to be a bit nervous as a Padres fan...10 errors in 23 games at SS, -7 DRS in his first 162 games played...if Tatis jr can't play SS and they move him to left field...that $330 million contract isn't so pretty. If his 197 strikeouts in his first 650 at bats suggest teams are figuring out how to get him out...that $330 million contract isn't so pretty. if missing long stretches of the season in 2018 (at AA), 2019, 2020 and already this year suggest he's fragile...that $330 million contract isn't so pretty.

It's so nice to see how you can be when you are civil. You don't use the term "moronic" you just say I have poor judgment, I am laughable and lack awareness. I brought up Tatis to show the idiocy of drawing conclusions about hall of fame people based on a 23 game sample size. As for you taking my concise argument against hiring TLR and my concise argument for hiring him and expanding the negatives (without really adding anything) and suggesting somehow there is no validity to the positives without even discussing why a man's actual record is meaningless. Again, as I have stated often, I did not want TLR...I just can understand why the White Sox would try him. I was responding to Multiple gun Pete's claim that it was moronic (and his weirdly calling me out to dunk on me as if the case is closed) and I will respond to you describing what moronic means, saying that is what the team was doing without actually using the word. There is only one strong argument against TLR (the drunk driving think is silly, 1% of drivers every year get DWI's...its personal bad judgment that I'm sure TLR is ashamed of...as I suspect you are ashamed of some of your posts). The major question is that he is old, the game has passed him by and his managerial genius is gone. Old is a relative thing. TLR is at the average life expectancy for a man in 2021. Casey Stengel was coach of the Yankees at the average life expectancy of a man in 1955 and then went to the WS five of the next six years. Old does not mean incompetent...ask Behlicheck, ask Saban, ask Popovich. Honestly the only moronic position at this point is that the data is in and TLR is a failed manager because of a couple of in-game decisions that didn't work. Neither you, nor I nor anyone else on this board have any idea what it takes to lead a team to a WS. TLR does and maybe he's old and the game has passed him by or maybe he's sly as a fox and is moving and shaping the team with early lessons that will cost games now but harden the team in the future...or maybe we've lost a couple of our favorite players for the season, we've lost a couple of heart breaking games...we've had a bunch of off days and rain outs and we want to beat up the manager because part of his job is to be the whipping boy.

That's not really a reasoned argument...saying "everything was wrong with it" and then "sorry you are stupid". Here is the debate...Negatives...he's very old, he's been out of the game a decade, some personal blemishes. Positives...fluent in Spanish, some personal goodness, he's taken three different franchises to the playoffs, won WS in each league, won a dozen pennants, won more games than anyone born after the Civil War, Hall of Famer. It's not ridiculous to say...the game may have passed him by...he's REALLY old. But it's also not "moronic" to say...he has a lifetime of leading men successfully, 76 isn't that old anymore, players across the league seem to love him...and he's got organizational history...who better to take this team of young guys to the playoffs? Maybe it's right maybe it's wrong but it is not moronic. As for closing the book on the argument based on a couple of in-game strategic errors is just meatball fandom...I get frustrated too...but come on Soxtalk...If Fernando Tatis Jr with his 10 errors in 20 games, 1/3 K rate and .229 batting average were on this team most here would probably be screaming that we should have traded him for James Shields when we had the chance.

Yes I still think it was not "moronic" to hire him. As I said often it was not my choice...but it was not unreasonable. Maybe you are new to baseball Pete...we are a mile into the marathon so a bit premature to take a victory lap. Honestly I was expecting someone to come pee on my head over my questioning of Musgrove after he pitched a no hitter...and now he's lost three of four decisions, given up 8 runs in his last 8 innings...and averaged 4.5 inning in the last four starts. Great FIP though.

Its nice to have the wild card lead but I'm not getting over confident with 141 more games to play.

He got a record $5 million signing bonus at 16. Put up nearly a .900 OPS at AA at 19. Keith Law had him as #9 prospect in all of baseball in 2016 Baseball Prospectus had him as #5. He came in 5th in rookie of the year balloting. He had a +0.5 bWar at 23 and at +1 bWar at 24. Fan graphs had him with a positive FWar every year of his career except 2017. So yes the preponderance of evidence suggests he was always good at baseball. He was terrible last year and now he's gone...this is a ridiculous battle to be fighting.

One of the pervading themes on Soxtalk is that a 24 year old is a finished product. Mazara's bWAR went from -0.3 to 0.5 to 1.0 in the years before we traded for him. As a GM you have two routes to follow, paying for past performance or trying to extrapolate where a player is going to end up...an offensively and defensively improving 24 year old lefty seemed like a reasonable bet. It didn't work out...but no matter how many times you write "sucks" in a post...it was a reasonable calculated gamble.

Mazara was 5th in ROY voting at 21. At 22 he had 20 homers and 100 RBI's. He improved his OPS every year at Texas, and his dWar improved every year. He was a lefty hitting RF that fit in with the age group of our young core. Of course there were risks but it wasn't "stupid" to take a chance last year on him. I think an Eaton bounce back was as risky this year as a Mazara bounce back. Sometimes you get lucky.

So basically all our prospects will fail...fine. Enjoy the team

I'm not guaranteeing Cespedes or Colas...it was merely a thought experiment about putting together a team 0f 28 and younger. I also think it's unfair to trash our OF prospects from 3 years ago...they all were exciting in 2018, moved up to the very difficult to hit park in Birmingham in 2019...and yes didn't adjust very well...then Covid in 2020 and now delayed start. One could still break through. As for Collins "is what he is"?? He has flashed much improved defensive skills and if he ever got a 20 game stretch to prove it...I think he hits. I like extending Rodon and as for Gio...we have him under contract this year and TWO YEARS MORE. By that time Stiever and Vera and Dahlquist and Kelley and Thompson could make his resigning irrelevant. Still always nice to have you pee on a happiness thread.

If you forced every team to have a roster of 28 or younger White Sox would have: Vaughn 1b- 23, Madrigal 2b-24, Tim Anderson SS-28, Moncado 3b-26, Cespedes RF-23, Robert CF-23, Eloy LF-24, Collins C-26, Yermin DH-28. Mendick 27 Utility, Colas utility of -22 Gio-25, Cease-26, Kopech-25, Rodon 28, Vera-20 . Crochett 22, Heuer-24, Foster-26, Bummer 27, Ruiz 26. Burdi-26...and that barely touches our top 30 minor leaguers. Honestly there can't be a team that can beat that group of young players. And the great thing (that so many on Soxtalk say is a terrible thing) is we have pretty close to zero bad contracts...we have money to spend and in spite the reputation JR spends money (top five payroll) when the team is good. We are in for an exciting five year run.

I don't think history has anything to do with unique individuals or teams. Historically Steph Curry shouldn't hit 43% of his 3pt shots...he will regress to the mean...except he happens to be Steph Curry. Historically the Cubs shouldn't have won the 2016 WS. I think history works if you say, "historically Yolmer Sanchez had 8 years of .720 OPS in the minors so his looking good in spring and going 5-5 on opening day is an illusion." But Yermin has 8 years in the minors with .860 OPS so...maybe we have something here. Still if you had said "historically guys who's first name begins with the letter Y can't hit in the majors"...well that would have made me happy out of the goofiness of it.

I think that's a bit too pessimistic. I'm not part of the "he hit everywhere" crowd" either because he was released by the Orioles at 24...because he had a sub .800 OPS in high A with no position. And yes he hit well after that but every year he was a couple years older than his competition...which matters in the minors. Still I think the narrative that he never really got a chance as a youngster because he had such a bad body and really had no position makes some sense...which justifies his being older than league average the last few years. I think you have to explore what you have here and it is a weird silver lining in the Eloy getting hurt thing. You get Collins/Vaughn/Yermin playing 120 games each between DH/LF/C/1B (160/100/50/50) and really learn what you have in them. If they are all good...and Eloy comes back...well that's a good problem to have. If nothing else...5 for 5 was magical for one night.

Fernando Tatis Jr struck out three times yesterday and committed an error. Dodged a bullet by trading that kid.

Honestly did no one notice the whole farm system was shut down in 2020 because of Covid? We had a bunch of interesting prospects that looked great in 2018...then they had a hard time transitioning to Birmingham...as many many do...with hopes for them catching up in 2020 suddenly the world changed. I think this is a very big year for the Sox farm teams...maybe they are all busts but let's be patient.

Carlton Fisk was 38 years old when they tried him in LF after spending 20 years squatting. As unathletic as Vaughn may be, he's 23 with fresh legs. It is a suboptimal solution but...Eloy is gone, Engel is gone all and of our OF prospects lost 2020 to the Covid. In trying times you try things out.

You are tying up my argument in semantics. No one knows precisely how much he played LF in Schaumburg but we know with certainty that they were trying to get him into the lineup and were trying him at LF and as he was there all day in Schaumburg for months I suspect every day for months they had him do some LF work. The real point is LF is one of the least valuable defensive positions in baseball and the one in the outfield where you can hide a bad arm. The Red Sox managed two World Series with a terrible fielding LF. I suspect Vaughn will be a bad LF but so was Eloy. It seems the real choice you make is Collins bat verses Leury's glove...which will add more value. Nothing is certain but I'd bet on Collins bat.

I'm not sure I follow...are you saying this is the long term switch of Vaughn to LF and Eloy to DH? I think this is really the thing that will make Collins our long term C. He will prove to be such a valuable left handed bat at DH this year and a passable C that it will be penciled in as full time catcher by...2023?

Manny Ramirez was a terrible LF...from 2003-2007 averaging -1.7 dWAR. For reference Eloy in 2019 was a -1.4. Manny did NOT make every catch every LF should make...in spite of his terrible defense the Bsox managed to get to the playoffs in four of those five years and won two WS. We are not doomed. Vaughn played in LF frequently in Schaumburg last year. He's 23. We aren't asking him to split them atom...and honestly with Robert in CF he catches everything anyway. It is terrible that Eloy got hurt but every team goes through injuries...expect more...it's how we manage around them and I am intrigued by Vaughn LF/Collins DH mix way more than I am about a Leury Garcia LF/Vaugn DH.

Thinking about this got me curious and I just looked at Frank Thomas's career split OPS by month... Apr: .917 May: .998 June: 1.016 July .978 August: .965 Sept: .965 Oh Frank how we miss you.

Baseball is such an interesting sport that way...for a month you won't be able to get a guy out and then for a month he won't be able to buy a hit. The great thing about this White Sox team is they have a roster of guys that can carry the team. One month it will be Robert, Anderson and Abreu and then it will be Vaughn, Moncada and Collins as long as we have three guys always hot and Madrigal, Grandal and Eaton just getting on base...we'll score a lot of runs...and with this pitching staff...we should win a lot of games.