michelangelosmonkey
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Posts posted by michelangelosmonkey
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14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
The problem is that Keuchel and Lynn have regression in their future...so it all comes down to Cease/Kopech or the White Sox making a Verlander or Greinke type acquisition like the Astros did.
If Severino comes back 100%, the Yankees’ rotation suddenly becomes a strength.
Yes that's why this year will be so interesting. Keuchel and Lynn I think of more as the David Wells/Mark Buehrle sort...bulldogs that will throw lots of innings and get lots of wins because they keep you in games....which is great for regular season. But playoffs you need guys like Gio that can throw a 7 inning 2 hitter....guys with other worldy stuff. Cease/Kopech and Crochett can all be that sort but so early to tell. So making a big add during the season...what do you think about Chris Sale...supposed to be back mid-year. Boston will want salary relief. We have money. Could he be our Grienke?
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2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
Wells looked liked a TOR starter when he first came up...and put up huge numbers with the Pirates. Second Sox season was step back. Buehrle and Fogg the two that were least hyped, for sure. Rauch, Garland and Wells were projected as frontline guys.
If Stiever came anywhere close at big league level, massive win.
Forgot to add Garland because he moved so fast and was originally with Cubs.
Ruffcorn was a high draft pick but a largely disappointing career.
At any rate, that group was main reason Sox were #1 farm system, along with Borchard/Rowand/Crede during that era.
I guess I'm not saying how did their careers end up...because we know about the 2000 and 1995 staffs....but what was thought of them at the time. If you look at Wells stats at the time he came up he wasn't nearly as good as Stiever's stats. I remember being excited about him...but no where near the Kopech/Crochet/Cease excitement. Garland had a nice career...but in 1998 we got him from the Cubs for 31 year old Matt Karcher who really wasn't very good. At 19 he had an OK time at A+ but not dominating stuff...and then at 20 in 2000 he was in our rotation. I don't think a person here would trade 19 year old Jared Kelly for 19 year old Jon Garland (again assuming we didn't know future performance). I think the cautionary tale is that 1994 staff with a 28 year old McDowell, and very young Fernandez, Alvarez, Bere with Ruffcorn and Baldwin in the minors and it looked like 4 or 5 aces...sort of like now. Then the next year McDowell signs with the Yankees (Gio), Bere after going 12-2 blew out his arm, Ruffcorn and Baldwin never developed and that dream team never happened...though that 1994 team that we lost the WS because of stupid strike....was the best I ever followed...until now.
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8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:
But the question should be why couldn't this be our year ? Which is the same question I have every year we make the playoffs. So not that often . And with that in mind, that playoff appearances are a rare thing, and will continue to be a rare thing until proven otherwise, I will continue to ask why wouldn't the Sox try to win a World Series every year in the window ?
Who here doesn't think this could be our year? You aren't suggesting we aren't trying to win this year are you? In the playoffs you need three great starters, a dynamic bullpen, a strong defense and a strong offense. Our weakness seems to be fourth and fifth starter...which is more likely to make getting to the playoffs harder...but honestly...slug one and slug two giving up 5 runs a game are going to win a lot of games with this offense. I'm not sure I like anyone better than White Sox if the playoffs started tomorrow.
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16 hours ago, caulfield12 said:
1998-2001
Rauch, Buehrle, Kip Wells, Matt Ginter, Lorenzo Barcelo, Jason Stumm, Rocky Biddle, Josh Fogg, Danny Wright, Aaron Myette, Brian West...there was another whose name I can't remember who ended up with the Indians
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2000-organization-of-the-year-chicago-white-sox/
If Crochet can stick as a starter, and morph into Randy Johnson, and not get injured...but that's going to require hitting on either Cease or Kopech and AT LEAST one more starter out of the group you listed.
Norge Vera could be added there as well.
I lived through that ERA but no where near this level of power arms...I dont think we knew who Buehrle was until he came up and was great...in 2000 he was just a lefty control pitcher. Jon Rauch in 2000 was Kopech exciting...but only that one year. Kip Wells but maybe Stiever exciting? Great A pitcher...but age and stats all favor Stiever. You didnt mention Garland who was 20 in 2000 and seemed exciting. The other guys you mention I recall but not to the same level. I think if you were drafting 2000 Sox pitchers and 2021 Rauch top five...maybe third. Wells maybe 7th? Could be recency bias...and obviously in retrospect you have Buehrle and Garland in top five. But I have to say from a potential point 2021 by a mile. A better comparison is 1995....Alex Fernandez, Wilson Alvarez , Jason Bere, Mike Sirotka, Scott Ruffcorn, James Baldwin...I remember being really excited about Baldwin and Ruffcorn. But not much after them.
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2 minutes ago, hi8is said:
Can you expand on this view?
Hate to speak for others but...the core of the dozen best players are 25 or younger. Peaks years would be when they are 26-27-28. So we will see exciting up and comers this year and in a year or two we will see them at their full power.
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6 hours ago, Rounding_Third said:
You keep using Teheran's 2020 10 era while suffering from covid which for him, was NOT asymtomatic. I've only mentioned it twice but you knowingly keep going there for lack of facts. According to your assessment, I guess the Sox should lose Moncada as well because of his bad 2020 even though their symptoms were nearly identical.
Let's see, Lopez 6 era over 210 innings over 2 years and led the league in ER's in 2019 whom Stone said "needs a lot of work" vs Teheran's Covid-suffering 31 innings in 2020 and 350 innings of 3.87 (~4.20 AL) through 2018-19. Got it! Adding the pure nonsense of Teheran not being good since 2016 while accepting Lopez's body of work with just 1 equivalent year out of his 5. which was 3 years ago is extremely disparate. Got it. All your ridiculous rhetoric because you oppose a risk free, cost free evaluation of a quality veteran presence is baffling. Yet you must cheer some of the other invitees like Mike Wright & Matt Tomshaw because they're such better options.
I singled out Teheran because of his Tiger deal. If any other available FA vet SP like Leake or Hamels would agree to a similar tryout deal, the Sox would also be remiss not to invite them. if they don't make the roster but showed value then try to work out an acceptable AAA deal, if not, then cut them lose; nothing gambled, nothing lost. If/when other viable options present themselves then trade or release them when applicable. If they were to accept AAA, having that kind of veteran insurance is invaluable given the Sox terrible SP depth, Its pretty simple stuff here. It includes intangibles that don't show up in analytics charts.
All done with your silly assessments based on distorted stats.
I don't CARE about Teheran...I am SO excited about this team. In all my following of the White Sox I can't remember so many exciting pitchers under 26...Gio, Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Kelly, Stiever, Thompson, Dahlquist...all on the roster or in our top ten prospect list. I just don't want the White Sox even considering some 30 year old cast off...irrespective of his league average skills...even if he's free....I don't want them to look at Leake or Hamels. This is not the time...this is not the team...back when the Sox were trying to squeeze a contender out of the Sale/Quintana/Eaton/Abreu group and they had all sorts of garbage on their staff, bullpen and lineup...sure...bring in Teheran and dream. But this team has way to much talent to be grasping at straws...and if the wheels do fall of the cart with the rotation...I'm pretty sure you can find a Teheran equivalent by trading a fringe prospect to a non-contender.
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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
Gotcha. "Got cy young votes" would have been more accurate as neither of them were in the final 3, and a closer wasn't really a candidate even though he got a handful of 3rd place votes.
That's fair...would you have been ok with "We got a top ten starting pitcher in baseball and the best relief pitcher in baseball"? I can't understand why people aren't more excited about this. Teheran gets more love on here than Lance Lynn.
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44 minutes ago, The Beast said:
My fear is that he won’t spend the kind of money needed to go get the guys they need to fill in the gaps or bring the team to the next level. I think some on this site are extremely high on prospects but they can trade some away and get some proven players. I haven’t seen him play and don’t know much about him, but is Vaughn really good? What happens if one of the arms in the rotation goes down? From a depth perspective I wish they would have signed another starter not named Rodon when more were out there and I would have liked a major league hitter come to DH even with what happened with Encarnacion. But we will see what happens and where they could have done better as the season rolls on.
Don't be afraid...it's spring...its the time to be optimistic. You say our depth is bad and I look at the best 26 man roster I've ever seen with the White Sox. Leury Garcia and Adam Engel seem like professional back ups, Collins and Mendick both offer interesting skill sets as back ups. As for the spending of money...OK, it's frustrating that we can't sign a $300 million contract...but I remember when Bill Veeck couldn't meet the payroll. We've had top five payrolls under JR so it's just pessimism to say it won't happen again. As for Vaughn...just wait!!!
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7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
Did you just call Carlos Rodon a cy young candidate?
No I said Lynn and Hendricks were both Cy Young candidates from last season.
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40 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:
So a pitcher who just turned 30 is "aging". Too funny!!!! Most people consider that back end prime but whatever! List all the analytics you want, I have no problem with a pitcher who keeps his era near or under 4 over 175+ innings year after year except the only one he didn't out of last 7 that you've chosen to define him by (ignoring his covid 2020). Somehow he must have done something right; right up through 2019. And no, I didn't say Rodon or Teheran, you turned it into that. I said no reason to not look at Terehan for free. That's zero risk, zero cost. Basically if sizing up Rodon for $3m why not Teheran for free. Its a very simple concept, repeat after me, "Free is good".
I agree the Sox plan appears to be a trade, if/when needed. At least I hope so. I just hope they're prepared to deal early (May), if needed. Their immediate depth is a 5 year injury case (Rodon), a 2 year 6ish era (Lopez), and an unproven youngster who got pounded in his limited time (Stiever). After that its a crapshoot. The old adage of "you can't win a pennant (playoffs) in April but you could lose one" has never been more in play than with this team right now with its pathetic rotation depth. More is better, honest!
Wow so you want to die on the Teheran hill? Yes 30 is on the downside of a pitchers career...and especially looks bad on a guy who hasn't been "good" since 2016. While he is "free" the point is you have a limited number of pitchers you can have on your roster. It's so ridiculous that Stiever was "pounded" last year (one bad inning actually), Lopez is garbage with his 6 ERA but Teheran who had a 10 ERA is fine to bring in. More Teheran is not better...it is a sign of desperation for a bad team...honest.
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41 minutes ago, Tony said:
I don't need to be told how to be a fan, but thanks. As others have mentioned, it's possible for multiple things to be true. We can be excited for this season while also frustrated with how the last 5 months have been handled. Additionally, when I hear the Front Office talk about trying to become the 90's Braves with young players continuing to emerge and always being the playoff mix.......I'm sorry that a roll my eyes given the success rate of this current regime.
Why do you want to be a White Sox fan if you hate everything about the organization? i get how frustrating it must have been this off season for you with getting only two Cy Young candidates, a Hall of Fame manager, four top fifty prospects joining the team, some of the top young coaching minds and adding a solid right fielder to the playoff team. Stupid, horrid White Sox.
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4 hours ago, TheCommish said:
That would be very fun to watch, the problem would be that would put 6 pitchers in a starting rotation as far as being able to pitch between starts. So essentially it takes 1 guy out of the bullpen rotation. I think Crochet would be more valuable as a reliever that could pitch 2-3 times a week rather than just 1 3 inning stint. I think the same thing for Kopech. If we have both of them going 2 innings per outing in relief, you could get them at least 4 innings per week. Then use Rodon/Lopez/etc for the 5th starter spot. Skipping that spot when days off warrant it.
I'm not sure why the 6 pitchers in the rotation would be a bad thing. I think the bullpen is SO good you don't need Crochett/Kopech in it...or rather you treat them like the 5th starter and the long reliever...except they ONLY pitch on that fifth day. It's a bit unusual but you get to stretch each of them out...aim for each of them to become a regular starter in 2022...they learn the habits of being a starter without the arm strain of a heavy load. I think they may delay this until May to get the additional year from Kopech and it's that window where Rodon and Reylo try to prove they are worth something.
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3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
I’ll keep saying it, but we can all be super excited about the potential of the team while also being frustrated with ownership. I think this team can legit win the World Series this year and can’t wait to watch things unfold, but ownership has not done us any favors for 2021 and the mix of Jerry’s need for TLR and his general financial risk aversion will likely lead to a shortened window. Just sucks to finally get to the point where we should have built up enough financially flexibility to stomp on the necks of our divisional rivals and instead went cheap this offseason.
Frustration is premature. I think it is clear that the White Sox have a plan and its execution has not been flawless...but nearly. Last year they signed Keuchel and Grandal...and brought up Robert, Madrigal, Foster, Heuer and Crochett...and they went to the playoffs. This year they got Lynn, Hendricks and Eaton and will bring up Kopech and Vaughn. And what you and others are angry about...not pushing all the chips in now...I think is an asset...they have kept their power dry. We have only traded one of our top 30 prospects and really haven't spent much money. JR, in spite the propaganda, had top five payrolls in the 2000's, 1990's and 1980's WHEN the teams were good. Why would we believe he won't do it again? Our tradeable assets aren't worth what they should have been because of COVID...a year ago we thought of the Rutherford, Adolfo and Lugo at least one was going to have a leap forward year...and then there was no season. Same can be said for all of the top 30...there will be at least ten of them that will be worth much more at the trade deadline than they are right now. As for the missed opportunities...What happens if Cease is great...and Kopech is great...and we just spent all of our Gio extension money on Bauer...who in my mind has some real questions. Why sign Springer who you would have to pay the centerfielder premium for...when you want to play him in RF? Why pay for Brantley or Cruz when Vaughn could be better than either. Let's watch how the things evolve and then at the trade deadline you can push in the chips when you have a better idea the REAL weaknesses...and if you see none...you extend guys.
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Just now, Tony said:
Yeah, shame on the fans. I mean, the team was established in 1901 and heading into the 2021 season, the franchise has never made the playoffs in back-to-back years.
What a bunch of assholes we are.
There's a time to be negative. The organization has put together a really solid rebuild plan that produced a playoff team last year and then in the off season traded for a CY Young candidate, signed a Cy Young candidate and a solid RF, hired a hall of fame manager, put together a staff of some really bright young baseball minds, are bringing up 3 of the top 50 minor league prospects...and by the looks of twitter or Soxtalk this is the dark ages. At some point you stop bitching about what was and start getting excited about what is coming (though in fairness Stone's tweet was a bit nasty).
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6 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:
Okay 1 mediocre year out of how many? Yep, "fantasic" was the wrong adj anyway but "very good" fits. You're still missing my point that its a "free" tryout for Detroit. If the Sox had done the same, no telling what could have happened. Rodon is a much higher risk considering he hasn't stayed healthy for 5 years running, The "if he can stay healthy" hope has drastically faded. If he gets through ST healthy, it's a huge victory for him at this point. SP depth is terrible; so thin. Pinning depth hopes on unproven or proven to be bad or always hurt pitchers is a very weak WS strategy. Depending on ST results, Teheran could have make the team or minors deal or cut loose at no cost.
He's averaged a 5 FIP, mostly while pitching in the National League, the last four seasons. If the argument is to get the 2016 version of Teheran...OK. But I don't think it's really hard to find a guy with a 5 FIP if all of our other options fail. In fact I'm pretty sure that if the options fail they will trade for a serious pitcher at the trade deadline. And obviously Rodon is a very high risk...they signed him for nothing after no one wanted him...but I gave you a pitcher with a very similar history and profile to Rodon that went on after losing two full seasons to injury to become a very good pitcher. I'd challenge you to find someone that fits the 30+ year old righty with 4 years of 5 FIP that goes on to be very good pitcher.
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On 2/19/2021 at 9:19 AM, Squirmin' for Yermin said:
No it's not. It was up to the front office. And they'll likely fail them. It's stupid to have them in the MLB bullpen for an entire year.
Stupid like Tampa Bay does it? Seems like a fifth starter being a reliever game is an intriguing concept...how does Kopech and Crochett get stretched out like a starter? 3 innings by each over 30 starts would likely be about 80 innings (some missed starts or short outings). And who wouldn't want tickets to those games? 100 mph from the left for three and 100 from the right for three? That would be so much fun.
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3 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:
Terheran had Covid last summer. Through 2019 he's been fantastic! And only 30. Why not give him a free tryout is all I'm saying. Considering some of the non roster pitching invitee's, it make no sense to not give him a free look.
I'd question "fantastic" 2016 and before yes but since then at best he's been an OK innings eating right handed pitcher. The problem is...we only have so many starting pitcher slots. We have the three fixtures. We have Cease at four. We have the Kopeck/Crochet 5th starter combo by mid-May...and we have Rodon and Reylo to fill in until then or to work as spot starters...and young guys like Stiever for later in the season. I think its fine to say Teheran is the same level of risk as Rodon...but I stated my arguments for Rodon...two years younger, lefty, higher upside. This is no longer the team where we bring in every one else's garbage to fill up the place.
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7 hours ago, The Beast said:
Fair enough. So, given what you said about Teheran, will Rodon have the better season?
Just asking for those of you defending Rodon if you think Rodon will have a better year than Teheran is all.
Okay, rephrased, who will suck less?
No one is expecting Rodon to be great...hoping, sure. Rodon was the #3 pick in the draft, he's a lefty and there is organizational familiarity with him. The organization got him on a one year "prove it" deal for almost nothing and he's going to have the spring and a few starts in April to show his recovered arm and new competitive fire. The upside on Teheran is an aging, declining right handed innings eater...the upside on Rodon is Mike Minor...even sort of similar story...lefty, 1st round draft picks...3rd and 7th overall pick, both debuted at 22 with some intriguing success...at 26 both lost, basically, two full seasons to injury....when Minor came back at 29 he put up 15 WAR over the next three years. That's the upside. It's not ridiculous...lefty starters with Rodon's stuff are worth a gamble. If your argument is we should pick up every aging innings eater that has had some success...there is a limitation on roster spots. If the argument is pick one...Rodon or Teheran...I'm quite satisfied with that pick. Yes Teheran could be better than Rodon in 2021...buy he was worse than Reylo last year...why not give that shot to Reylo.
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1 hour ago, The Beast said:
So, does anyone here want to go on record saying Rodon will have a better year than Teherán?
Why would we be afraid? You dont get bonus points for being pessimistic.
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48 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:
For a free tryout? Are you serious? Why would a contending team want Rodon for $3m?
Because Rodon was our opening day starter a couple of years ago, is lefty and has TOR stuff if he can stay healthy?
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38 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:
Yeah I am not going to go as far as some have to stan for Law, but in the case of Tatis, he was by far the first prospect guy to be talking about Jr.
I think the first guy to dislike Robert too.
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5 minutes ago, fathom said:
Since the Sale debacle, Law has been pretty damn accurate with Sox prospects.
That's not even an argument. Seems like he was pretty wrong on Beckham...who was the first guy I looked at as a rookie after Sale. Did he foresee Quintana's near greatness? I found (its hard to search outside KL outside the ESPN paywall) where six years ago he didn't have Tim Anderson in his top 50 list but had Rodon at 12. Still a few individual data points don't even matter...the question is given his 15 years of rating 100 guys...last five year probably too soon to tell...so 10 years, 1000 players (and thousands unrated) was he good at it? Better than others? Just loudly saying he's the best at something isn't that convincing.
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3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:
Evaluators don't guess. Law is an evaluator. The others are not.
So he "evaluates" the unknowable future and the others guess about the unknowable future. My question was...are his evaluations more likely to be correct than the guessers? Seems like this would be something that is trackable. Measurement of career fWar by his ranking? Keith Law has been doing this for 15 years. Do we KNOW he is better than the guessers? Do we KNOW he's not predisposed to favor or dislike an organization? I suspect someone has done this...and if Keith Law is great at this it would be worth considering. I remember loving Mel Kiper and then someone tracked it and his hit rate was terrible.
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2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:
He doesn't know what he's looking at.
There must be hit/miss stats on these predictors. You sound so confident on Keith Law...I really think he's a smart guy and I like to read his write ups but the others are interesting too. Philosophically I get that you prefer one fortune teller over another but really...we are talking about guessing the future so without some sort of comparative batting average why would we care?
MLB 2020-21 off season catch all
in The Diamond Club
Posted
I find you to be one of the reasoned voices on here...so I guess I'm surprised at your seeming anger at the off season. Lynn was the best pitcher that changed hands in the AL this offseason...Hendricks is a great upgrade...Tony LaRussa is almost certainly going to be better than Ricky. Eaton is a pro. Cespedes and Vera seem like exciting young additions. Vaughn instead of EE...Katz instead of Coop. And we are keeping a tight budget to go buy someone at the trade deadline...like I mentioned a second ago...how about Chris Sale??