michelangelosmonkey
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Posts posted by michelangelosmonkey
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18 minutes ago, champagne030 said:
Wait, what? I think Grandal's defense is a bit overrated, but Collins is going to relegate him to backup catcher status by next year? The Kool-Aid is flowing....
Grandal is turning 34 next year...he's a catcher...it's a hard position to play everyday as you get old. He remains a very good hitter and I suspect they will transition him to more DH then catcher as he ages. IF Collins has learned to be a better catcher we will know pretty quickly this year and if he is pretty good...yes they will give him more and more of the burden going forward. Maybe I'm wrong. Not sure the point of being an a-hole about a different opinion.
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2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
How many hitters on the entire Charlotte roster that received regular playing time were under .850?
I guess the key difference is Thomas just tore right through the Sox minor league system from the moment he was drafted...whereas it’s difficult to know what to make of last year development-wise for minor leaguers.
Gordon Beckham and Luis Robert are the only two Sox rookie position players to come right out of the box guns blazing in quite some time. Anderson held his own, too. But that’s a lot of pressure to put on a Collins or Vaughn if the team is struggling and there are significant injuries on either side of the roster. Now Vaughn’s certainly no Brian Anderson psychologically or in terms of work habits, but only those 1993-94 offenses were comparable to 2006, yet there still came a point in the season where Ozzie panicked and went to Mackowiak instead. We can sit here today and say Vaughn only needs to be around 775 ops, because the rest of the hitters can carry the lineup. But things don’t usually go as planned.
You mean .950 at Charlotte for Collins? One of the big dangers for hitters coming to the majors is their lack of knowledge of the strike zone. Both Vaughn and Collins are supposed to be ++ at that.
Yes Frank Thomas was drafted...played half a season at A, then half a season at AA and then was brought up. Vaughn didn't have that chance because of COVID...but again the guys watching him everyday think he's special.
And yes things don't go as planned...but sometimes...it's just our turn to get lucky. Sometimes #3 pick in the draft turns into Michael Jordan. It's not crazy to think Vaughn could be special.
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4 minutes ago, Soxsi75 said:
I certainly hope you're right. But we have nothing to go off of. Vaughn has never faced major league pitching. If Cruz were here, we could have worked him along slower. Now he doesn't have that luxury. He has to produce now. We can't have the "well, it's his rookie year, he needs time to adjust" scenario. I agree, I like this team too. And it's why I feel this way. I really felt that we had our foot on Minnesota's throat and if we could have signed Cruz and taken him away from them as well, we would have stomped our foot on their throats even harder. Now I feel like we let them off the hook by taking a "this'll be good enough" attitude. And because I like this team, I definitely feel that nothing short of winning the division is acceptable. If Minnesota wins the division and Cruz has another monster year to contribute to it, we should all be very angry. Don't really care about having that "money is reserve" if it doesn't help us win.
He's turning 41 this year. 41. You know how many players have had great years at 41? I think the odds are better that Vaughn will be great at 23 than that Cruz will be great at 41....I also think the odds are pretty great Cruz gets hurt or gets caught doping (Because he must be doping). While it's true that Vaughn doesn't have a MLB track record...neither did Frank...or a lot of hot shot young hitters. I don't think there will be a ton of pressure on Vaughn because...everyone else on the team is a kid. This is exactly the time to let him and Collins settle into those roles. I even sort of think they should go to Jose and say...thanks for last year but your future is DH and give the glove to the kid.
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9 minutes ago, poppysox said:
I think we are better off having Vaughn in the lineup and the Cruz money held in reserve. I will take our lineup over anyone. Our lineup will be a nightmare for just about any pitcher to face. Also, if the other team isn't leading after 7...forget it.
I love the thought of having Vaughn, Eaton and Madrigal as 7-8-9. Pitchers will go through first six guys all capable of hitting 30 home runs and then those last three guys will drive them crazy taking or following off pitches...getting on base 36% of the time. This team is going to be so much fun.
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9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
Are you Paul Sullivan?
No but I'm transitioning.
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7 minutes ago, Soxsi75 said:
You're right about just about all you said. Except the line you said that we shouldn't be upset that "we didn't go after some other teams garbage." Nelson Cruz isn't garbage. That was my argument of what they should have gone after to be stronger for THIS year.
I was very loudly against EE last year. EE has been a GREAT player for most of his career...but at some point you put the 38 year olds out to pasture. Same with Cruz...Cruz is clearly not garage but at some point the steroid police are going to catch up to him and he will be EE 2.0. Meanwhile I think you are underselling the potential for Vaughn...he is same age as Frank Thomas, similar background, similar hitting profile...high average, high OBP, Plus power...and at 23 Frank put up a 7+ WAR. How do we know Vaughn can't be like that...ok Frank is a once in a generation hitter...but it's kind of been a generation. The guys that should know watched Vaughn every day at the alternate site and are basically saying...nope we're good at DH. AND I think you are too harsh on Collins...in 2018 led the whole minor leagues in walks, in 2019 he struggled in his first 30 MLB at bats...went down to AAA and finished with a .950 OPS at Charlotte and then came up late and put up nearly an .800 OPS in Sept/Oct (over .950 his last dozen games in 2019), and in spring training in 2020 he looked good at the plate. His problem was we had two all star catchers all ready and a full time DH. I think he can hit...I hope he can catch.
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10 minutes ago, poppysox said:
And...the playoff system didn't start until 1968 so why are we talking about 1906 forward? You would never suspect some of these guys are really fans.
And the Sox have gone to the playoffs 6 times, won the equivalent of 90 games 8 times and won a WS in JR's 32 year reign...we are above .500 in that time...we aren't the Yankees but not a laughingstock. In fairness the rebuild has been REALLY hard. 7 years of losing an average of 92 games...the spirits flag...but the future is so bright.
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1 minute ago, poppysox said:
Good points. Although I would have prefered Collins get everyday work and bring in Flowers...I think Collins is the backup catcher. I think we just may see Yermin for the first few weeks before Vaughn comes up unless we see a pre-season extension.
Maybe it's just me but I'm tired of bringing in the old broken down free agents from other teams...I was strongly against bringing in EE last year for the same reason...it's time to trust the 25 year olds. Last year was the year Collins should have spent catching every day in Charlotte but COVID happened....so he spent every day catching in the alternate site with Crochett, Kelly, Dahlquist and Thompson. Young wild explosive arms...with our best catching coaches with him trying to teach him...I don't know what happened but I feel great confidence that he caught the equivalent of 60 games. If he hasn't learned by now they should get rid of him...but I just feel from their actions that they are confident about him. And if he CAN catch? This is one of those things that catapults us from that very good team into the super team...adding a lefty bat at catcher with high on base skills and + power. I think he catches 60 games this year and DH's/1B 70 more and then catches 100 games a year going forward.
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3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:
Since 2006, the Yankees have made the playoffs 11 times.
Since 2006, the Dodgers have made the playoffs 11 times.
Since 1906 the Chicago White Sox have made the playoffs 11 times.
Practically the same thing, no idea why Sox fans would be upset that when one of those 11 times, after years and years of tanking and failure, the Sox wouldn't actually support the rare opportunity they have had to make the playoffs twice in a row... for the first time in team history.
Between you, Poppy and VA fan you guys could supply the entire town of Flint with the fresh water that you carry for this organization.
Oh I see what you did there...from 1920-1982 the White Sox went to the playoffs once and you can make the optimists look stupid for supporting a team that hasn't made the playoffs very often going back to 1906...hahaha. It hasn't been a legendary franchise...but it's our team so I'm not sure WTF is your point outside of slamming some of the positive people?? White Sox had a playoff team last year and have added two of the top Cy Young candidates from 2020, a solid right fielder, a hall of fame manager, a hot shot pitching coach and will be adding three of top fifty prospects in all baseball to their core of good young players...and you and your ilk want to b**** non stop because we didn't go after some other teams garbage. Honestly give me the water carriers over your cabal of urine carriers.
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38 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
I think you mean the farm system of 2-3 years ago.
If you told me TLR, Hahn and KW can make it through the season together peacefully and Robert/Moncada can consistently maintain an 850-900 OPS, would feel a lot better.
It’s always excitement tempered by nervousness in these situations.
Any White Sox fan would also tell you those 1977, 83, 2000, 2005 and 2008 teams came out of nowhere. (Or that the 2003 team or 2006 team before the wheels came off from injuries were the most talented.)
When expectations increased the following season, invariably disappointment. You can even say the same for 2011 when we added Dunn...then 2012 under new manager Ventura was a positive albeit ephemeral shock, other than the last two weeks. Or the year we brought in Samardzija, Robertson, Cabrera and LaRoche, etc.
Basically, they’re going to have to prove they belong in a full season. Nobody’s going to be all that happy if they make it as a wild card and get eliminated quickly, the expanded playoff format bailed them out last year. Then again, perhaps Renteria doesn’t take his foot off the gas the last couple of weeks and let the Twins and Indians overtake them with only 5 teams eligible for postseason.I think that is entirely fair...life is filled with a series of disappointments...I think the greatest team I followed was that 1994 team that ended with the strike. Still I feel it's different...I feel like we could have the makings of a super team...the A's or Reds of the 70's. And yes it's fair to prick that balloon...but half the fun of winning is the expectations...and the joy of having national media guys remember that there are actually two teams in Chicago. Why couldn't Vaughn come up and hit like Frank Thomas as a rookie? Why couldn't your fifth starter be Kopech for three and Crochett for three? Let's see if all these 25 and younger players can really jell into a great team. I don't want to start the panic trading or panic buying yet.
As for the Farm System...I'm never that excited about a system that could produce a dozen major leaguers if they are a dozen solid average players. One Frank Thomas is worth a dozen Tyler Flowers or Yolmer Sanchezs. They are obviously worth something but if your system produces one star your can go pick up the Sanchez's and Flowers, Today, with all the young talent we've brought up the last few years we still have as our top five Kopech, Vaughn, Crochett, Madrigal and Kelly. Each could realistically be a special player. Top four have even looked special against major leaguers. OK...maybe last years list is better but this is very exciting.
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3 hours ago, vilehoopster said:
Oh my God! How many more threads are gonna be started bitching about the organization/ owner being cheap, about how we should have done this or done that or added this for that much money.
I like Rick Hahn's Hoosiers quote, "Our team is on the floor." And it's a damn good team, a damn good one. It is exactly what we fan wanted; it's a World Series contender, a strong World Series contender. For all the bitching on this forum, that is all a fan can ever ask for.
In this post and so many complaining others the "there's no guarantee" or "what if so and so gets injured, there's not quality backup". People are upset that, with this present line up (this team "on the floor") that for the White Sox to win the World Series, things really have to go right; they need to stay injury free. That complain is made over and over and over. Well . . . No Duh!!
Every team ever is like that. If they don't have luck and stay injury free, they're not going to win the World Series. There's never a guarantee, never. Nobody in MLB has spent more money or had better personal or farms systems than the Dodgers and Yankees since the 2000s. Yet before this year, the Dodgers hadn't won a World Series before 1988 (That makes our 2005 win seem recent). The Yankees haven't won a World Series since 2009. No amount of money spent can guarantee a World Series and protect a team from injuries derailing a promising season. I got news for you guys: if Mookie Betts goes down either to injury or a bad slump and one of their top pitchers gets hurt for a long time, that $40 million on Bauer ain't gonna matter. Same thing with the Yankees or Padres, if they lose two important players, they're not making the World Series.
So it's equally true for the White Sox. If one of our big pitchers go down and we lose one of our big bats, I got news for you, a back up LH bat and better back up catcher isn't going to matter. It ALWAYS comes down to a lot of luck and staying injury free, always.
I'm excited to see what Vaugh can do. And I've said this before: I absolutely did not want Nelson Cruz, that steroid cheater. I don't want to cheer for a Cruz; I want a team I can be proud of.
For all our complaining, I want to see what Collins can do, or to see a huge jump in performance from Cease. If we worked in the same office and could have a solid, hand-shake bet, I would bet that Cease has a better year than Musgrove or Taillon or whatever oft-injured pitcher somebody on here mentioned that the Sox have to have to "guarantee" success.
To justify their complains, people on here are making statement and taking off with them like they're absolute facts. Come on, really? Are the Sox really not going to make the World Series because Joc Pederson is soooo much better than Eaton. Yet people are having shit fits on this board because we didn't sign Pederson. Or someone bitching about this back up infielder is so necessary when the Sox have Leury Garcia. Really? Are any of the many names listed on here THAT MUCH better than Leury? Ridiculous.
For all of the complaining on this board, in my opinion, the rebuilt has been a total success, and we have to give Hahn and management credit for it. This White Sox team is what we wanted: It is a strong World Series contender and will be for, at least, four or five years. There are no guarantees (again, ask the Yankees and Dodgers fans).
All fans can realistically ask for is the ownership and management to give them a a strong team, a team that is a serious World Series contender. And we have that, so if only for a minute or a thread or two, just stop bitchin'!
Thanks for posting this...and post more often. It is the oddest thing that so many of the regular posters seem to hate the team. I have followed the team like a religion since the early 70's and this is not only the best young team I've followed they might have the best farm team too...and a hall of fame manager, and are managing the budget to try to keep the window open for the longest time possible...and yet somehow every positive is a hidden negative and every negative is a fatal flaw. Just know that there are a lot of us silently watching. If we can't enjoy this team now we can never enjoy anything.
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Last White Sox player that came up as a can't miss hitter and a similar hit profile to Vaughn's at a similar age, at a similar position put up a wRC+ of .178 in his rookie year...but he did get better.
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2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:
Vaughn I can see the Sox trusting to get AB's. They didn't even seem to want Mercedes or Collins getting AB's in 2019 or 2020 so expecting it in 2021 seems a reach though without McCann it's more feasible . We'll see if the Sox sign a catcher.
I think they have a long term plan for Collins. I feel like their 2019 plan was pushed back because they didnt expect McCann to be the all star catcher he was (for half the season)...but I think 2020 was daily intensive training on Collins being a catcher...they understand he is extremely valuable if he can actually be an average catcher defensively because they think he can be a top ten hitting catcher. Of course the other possibilty is they think he's horrible and they are hiding that...but then why not trade after his great AAA year in 2019? Collins might be most interesting guy to watch in 2021.
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43 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:
I believe general consensus is that the ability to limit damage on batted balls is a real skill, but it is much rarer than people think and we don't have a good way to isolate and measure it. The only way we know if a pitcher is a legit "FIP-beater" is if he continually beats it for a bunch of years in a row. And then, by the team we feel confident about it, there's a good chance the pitcher's skills have declined or changed, and so it's still precarious to predict it going forward. I think Matt Cain was the big posterboy for this effect. He beat his FIP significantly like seven years in a row or something -- and then one year he just started getting shelled and never bounced back. The knee-jerk reaction was "oh see well he was just lucky for really long but it caught up with him," but the truth is more likely just that he declined with age and lost whatever skill made him successful.
Like any stat that serves as a proxy -- which is nearly all of them -- there's a tremendous amount of information you can get from it, but it doesn't explain everything, and so it's important that we pay attention to nuances and try to resist using the stat in a context it wasn't meant to be used. That's all I'm trying to say, really.
Nicely stated.
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10 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:
Look up Voros McCracken and DIPS theory, then get back to me.
The reason FIP is based on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns is because those are pitching-exclusive events that Voros McCracken determined are statistically stable year over year. Hence "Defensive Independent Pitching." He scaled his totals to ERA, then tested and proved that FIP on year is more predictive of ERA the next year than ERA is. I'm not making this up, Voros McCracken did this work, and published the research. FIP is a FanGraphs stat that stands for "Fielding Independent Pitching." This statistic exclusively measures "things that happened." You can anecdotally look around at things if you want, but these are facts.
The weirdness of FIP is that the theory goes that there are three reasons why ERA and FIP are different...sequencing, defense and luck. But sequencing and defense should be the same for all pitchers in an organization (roughly, over a large sample size like a season). So to say Musgrove over his career has a FIP half a run lower than his ERA...but the other pitchers on his team had no difference in their FIP and ERA over the same time...must mean either that Musgrove is terribly unlucky...and we should value him more highly than conventional (ERA) stats or maybe there is something he does that makes his FIP good but his ERA bad. It doesn't really explain that...and that would seem to be important.
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7 minutes ago, Flash said:
The black hole reference was not mine (SoxBlanco I believe). What I was driving at is the value of the '21 front office moves. I understand we have young players in the system who we intend to plug in. I'd also have to check but recall McCann and Grandal manned DH role a fair amount of '20.
Sorry....you're right Flash. Still...total DH hitting last year was .588 OPS and pinch hitters were .627. So just about any warm body should be better than that.
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1 hour ago, Tony said:
Ethan Katz is set up to be the biggest failure in White Sox history. I honestly feel bad about the level of hype he has received from the fan base, there is next to no chance he lives up to the hype that has been created around the legend of Ethan Katz.
Where do you think the actual expectation is (outside of some people joking like they did with "Cooper will fix him"). I feel like he is tasked with turning Cease-Kopech and Crochett into good major league pitchers. Honestly that's starting with some pretty attractive marble he has to sculpt. I think if Reylo and Rodon fail...no one will blame Katz. But I also look at the Houston and Cleveland pitching clinics and there seems to be something to the science of maximizing a pitchers outcomes.
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1 hour ago, Flash said:
In terms of net personnel, Vaughn, Engel and Collins are/were part of the organization in '20 so I'm not counting them as actual additions. Both Eaton and Mazara had rough years in '20 but I like Eaton's chances of bouncing back better than Mazara's.
You said we had a black hole at DH...Vaughan and Collins and throw Yermin in there as well...had a combined 18 at bats last year...so they should be considered additions...and I would bet any one of them will hit better than .650 OPS this year.
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23 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:
We still have a black hole at DH and its very possible that we still have a black hole at RF too.
That said, I do expect the team to be better. Im not sure the winning percentage will be better than last year as matching the .583 would translate to around 95 wins and I think that's right around where we should be, but the team should still be better even if doesn't show in terms of pure W-L.
We can expect growth from Robert, the old Moncada, Lynn adding alot of value as well as Kopech and Hendriks.
I do expect some regression from Keuchel, Abreu and probably Anderson.
You see Vaughn/Collins as no improvement over EE's .627 OPS? You think the Adam's won't hit better than Mazara's .589 OPS? I do agree that the team benefitted from the AL Central schedule last year so they might be quite a bit better and end up with 95 wins.
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1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:
I just need to point out that this is not true.
FIP is measure of what actually happened without the influence of defense. Depending upon how you're using the number, this can be construed as what the pitcher "deserved," to happen in terms of run prevention, and in that it has been proven to be a better predictor for future ERA than past ERA is, it can sometimes be considered a suggestion of "what should happen," but there is a common misconception that FIP is some kind of projection that lives in the realm of theory and that isn't true -- it is a measure of actual descriptive events that occurred on the field.
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
That's the formula. If it actually measured the influence of defense it should show, for instance, every Pirates pitcher with a much lower FIP than ERA like Musgroves (actually without Musgrove 2020 Pirates FIP = ERA). It punishes people that give up home runs and walks and don't strike out many. If you give up a ton of singles, doubles and triples, allow 9 runs to score but walk none and strike out 7...you are a GREAT FIP pitcher and ERA hates you. If you walk four, strike out four and give up two runs on solo home runs in 9 innings ERA loves you and FIP hates you. This is not science and FIP > ERA. The ERA stuff actually happens...the guy that actually gave up 2 runs and the guy who actually gave up 9...which is my argument. The FIP argument is the low walk high strikeout guy will eventually become a great pitcher and the High FIP low ERA guy will eventually have to pay the piper. I went back ten years and twelve years and found a few guys with a FIP 1 run lower than his ERA and really saw no breakthroughs. Maybe there is evidence. It is true that over time FIP generally is very close to ERA but to loudly say one is truth is just not so.
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19 minutes ago, Soxsi75 said:
I'm an old school baseball fan too. Been following the White Sox since 1975. (Hence my name on this thread.) But I tried to keep an open mind and wanted to learn and look at more statistics like WAR. Just for the fun of it. Then I saw that our very own South Side Hitmen first baseman Jim Spencer had a WAR of -.03 in 1977. So one of the best defensive first basemen of this era and a solid power hitter was worse than a replacement player? And what made it even worse was his defensive rating was -.08?? What?? He saved Alan Bannister countless errors that year!! But a replacement player would be better than him? Had me and you lost me there.
And please. I don't want any "Sabergeeks" getting on here and responding why this should be. It shouldn't. Pure and simple. If someone wants to talk baseball, I'd love to talk about that. But I don't want to talk any "Sabergeekness."
That's interesting...I remember Jim Spencer too and that was what I remembered too...that he was this amazing fielder. But he was NOT a good hitting 1B. Even using old timey stats...in 76 and 77 he averaged about 550 at bats, hit about .250 and averaged 16 home runs. We were just so broken as baseball fans in 1976 that we pretended that was good. STill the fielding thing is a bit strange...maybe we just were kids and heard the announcers say it over and over again that he was an amazing fielder. When you look at fielding stats he never made errors....which is good...and had a lot of put outs...but that could be because their rotation was an extreme ground ball rotation. Remember...we were all told that Derek Jeter was a GREAT fielder until the saber heads proved otherwise. Don't give up...the new stats are worth learning.
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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:
Yup and I’m not trying to be a negative douche, but the only positives that came out of Dylan’s 2020 season was elite velocity and the fact he made every start. I truly think Cooper fucked up the majority of our young arms, so there is plenty reason for optimism but he’s got to make some serious changes or it’s going to be an ugly 2021 for him as well.
No you arent one of the negative douches and I largely agree with you...Im just saying we can't completely ignore the old stats. TA was REALLY lucky in 2019 and better in 2020. Maybe part of Ceases ERA success was he has a skill of escaping jams. Lopez it seems was the opposite...he breezed along and then had adversity and fell apart. I really think Cease and Kopech at 4 and 5 for this team is OK.
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13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
So now you’re just moving the goalposts? I want him in the rotation because I believe in the talent and hope that Katz find a way to unleash it, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t bad last year. And it wasn’t just his command (which was horrible), he also has a very low active spin rate which makes it harder for his 4 seamer to miss bats. Hopefully he finds a way to fix his mechanics to improve command and reduce the cut on his fastball, but until he’s a complete wild card coming off a really bad year.
I'm not moving any goalposts. You stated how many competitive teams are relying on starters with a 6.5 and 7 5 FIP. I merely said they arent...they are relying on Cease and Kopech who have TOR stuff...and FIP is a measuure of what should have happened but when measuring what actually happened, ERA, Cease was at 4.0 and league average was 4.4...and he was only 24 year old. So to say he was horrible just wasnt true.
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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:
He was 100% lucky and if you actually watched his starts or look at any of his stats other than ERA you would know this. He was horrendous last year and his luck would have almost certainly run out over a full 32 start season.
Ah the science of lucky. If you actually watched his starts he has electric stuff but control issues. It takes many dynamic pitchers years to get control...most teams dont give up on them and give the starts instead to some old declining gas can
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Happy PECOTA Day!
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
As a guarantee??? 41 year old DH??? Our mistake was not in failing to sign Cruz...it was signing EE last year where Soxtalk was making the same guarantees about him and his greatness. This is such nonsense about "eliminating the maybe's". There are a grand total of zero times that don't have questions marks. And signing Tyler Flowers and Nelson Cruz and Q and the other suggestions is holding back young super talent guys for the sake of a bunch of old formerly talented guys...possibly because that will allow us to continue talking about our curse of signing old players who suddenly become bad. I think going all in should mean going all in with the young guys...Dynasty or bust.