michelangelosmonkey

I'd question "fantastic" 2016 and before yes but since then at best he's been an OK innings eating right handed pitcher. The problem is...we only have so many starting pitcher slots. We have the three fixtures. We have Cease at four. We have the Kopeck/Crochet 5th starter combo by mid-May...and we have Rodon and Reylo to fill in until then or to work as spot starters...and young guys like Stiever for later in the season. I think its fine to say Teheran is the same level of risk as Rodon...but I stated my arguments for Rodon...two years younger, lefty, higher upside. This is no longer the team where we bring in every one else's garbage to fill up the place.

No one is expecting Rodon to be great...hoping, sure. Rodon was the #3 pick in the draft, he's a lefty and there is organizational familiarity with him. The organization got him on a one year "prove it" deal for almost nothing and he's going to have the spring and a few starts in April to show his recovered arm and new competitive fire. The upside on Teheran is an aging, declining right handed innings eater...the upside on Rodon is Mike Minor...even sort of similar story...lefty, 1st round draft picks...3rd and 7th overall pick, both debuted at 22 with some intriguing success...at 26 both lost, basically, two full seasons to injury....when Minor came back at 29 he put up 15 WAR over the next three years. That's the upside. It's not ridiculous...lefty starters with Rodon's stuff are worth a gamble. If your argument is we should pick up every aging innings eater that has had some success...there is a limitation on roster spots. If the argument is pick one...Rodon or Teheran...I'm quite satisfied with that pick. Yes Teheran could be better than Rodon in 2021...buy he was worse than Reylo last year...why not give that shot to Reylo.

Why would we be afraid? You dont get bonus points for being pessimistic.

Because Rodon was our opening day starter a couple of years ago, is lefty and has TOR stuff if he can stay healthy?

I think the first guy to dislike Robert too.

That's not even an argument. Seems like he was pretty wrong on Beckham...who was the first guy I looked at as a rookie after Sale. Did he foresee Quintana's near greatness? I found (its hard to search outside KL outside the ESPN paywall) where six years ago he didn't have Tim Anderson in his top 50 list but had Rodon at 12. Still a few individual data points don't even matter...the question is given his 15 years of rating 100 guys...last five year probably too soon to tell...so 10 years, 1000 players (and thousands unrated) was he good at it? Better than others? Just loudly saying he's the best at something isn't that convincing.

So he "evaluates" the unknowable future and the others guess about the unknowable future. My question was...are his evaluations more likely to be correct than the guessers? Seems like this would be something that is trackable. Measurement of career fWar by his ranking? Keith Law has been doing this for 15 years. Do we KNOW he is better than the guessers? Do we KNOW he's not predisposed to favor or dislike an organization? I suspect someone has done this...and if Keith Law is great at this it would be worth considering. I remember loving Mel Kiper and then someone tracked it and his hit rate was terrible.

There must be hit/miss stats on these predictors. You sound so confident on Keith Law...I really think he's a smart guy and I like to read his write ups but the others are interesting too. Philosophically I get that you prefer one fortune teller over another but really...we are talking about guessing the future so without some sort of comparative batting average why would we care?

As a guarantee??? 41 year old DH??? Our mistake was not in failing to sign Cruz...it was signing EE last year where Soxtalk was making the same guarantees about him and his greatness. This is such nonsense about "eliminating the maybe's". There are a grand total of zero times that don't have questions marks. And signing Tyler Flowers and Nelson Cruz and Q and the other suggestions is holding back young super talent guys for the sake of a bunch of old formerly talented guys...possibly because that will allow us to continue talking about our curse of signing old players who suddenly become bad. I think going all in should mean going all in with the young guys...Dynasty or bust.

Grandal is turning 34 next year...he's a catcher...it's a hard position to play everyday as you get old. He remains a very good hitter and I suspect they will transition him to more DH then catcher as he ages. IF Collins has learned to be a better catcher we will know pretty quickly this year and if he is pretty good...yes they will give him more and more of the burden going forward. Maybe I'm wrong. Not sure the point of being an a-hole about a different opinion.

You mean .950 at Charlotte for Collins? One of the big dangers for hitters coming to the majors is their lack of knowledge of the strike zone. Both Vaughn and Collins are supposed to be ++ at that. Yes Frank Thomas was drafted...played half a season at A, then half a season at AA and then was brought up. Vaughn didn't have that chance because of COVID...but again the guys watching him everyday think he's special. And yes things don't go as planned...but sometimes...it's just our turn to get lucky. Sometimes #3 pick in the draft turns into Michael Jordan. It's not crazy to think Vaughn could be special.

He's turning 41 this year. 41. You know how many players have had great years at 41? I think the odds are better that Vaughn will be great at 23 than that Cruz will be great at 41....I also think the odds are pretty great Cruz gets hurt or gets caught doping (Because he must be doping). While it's true that Vaughn doesn't have a MLB track record...neither did Frank...or a lot of hot shot young hitters. I don't think there will be a ton of pressure on Vaughn because...everyone else on the team is a kid. This is exactly the time to let him and Collins settle into those roles. I even sort of think they should go to Jose and say...thanks for last year but your future is DH and give the glove to the kid.

I love the thought of having Vaughn, Eaton and Madrigal as 7-8-9. Pitchers will go through first six guys all capable of hitting 30 home runs and then those last three guys will drive them crazy taking or following off pitches...getting on base 36% of the time. This team is going to be so much fun.

No but I'm transitioning.

I was very loudly against EE last year. EE has been a GREAT player for most of his career...but at some point you put the 38 year olds out to pasture. Same with Cruz...Cruz is clearly not garage but at some point the steroid police are going to catch up to him and he will be EE 2.0. Meanwhile I think you are underselling the potential for Vaughn...he is same age as Frank Thomas, similar background, similar hitting profile...high average, high OBP, Plus power...and at 23 Frank put up a 7+ WAR. How do we know Vaughn can't be like that...ok Frank is a once in a generation hitter...but it's kind of been a generation. The guys that should know watched Vaughn every day at the alternate site and are basically saying...nope we're good at DH. AND I think you are too harsh on Collins...in 2018 led the whole minor leagues in walks, in 2019 he struggled in his first 30 MLB at bats...went down to AAA and finished with a .950 OPS at Charlotte and then came up late and put up nearly an .800 OPS in Sept/Oct (over .950 his last dozen games in 2019), and in spring training in 2020 he looked good at the plate. His problem was we had two all star catchers all ready and a full time DH. I think he can hit...I hope he can catch.

And the Sox have gone to the playoffs 6 times, won the equivalent of 90 games 8 times and won a WS in JR's 32 year reign...we are above .500 in that time...we aren't the Yankees but not a laughingstock. In fairness the rebuild has been REALLY hard. 7 years of losing an average of 92 games...the spirits flag...but the future is so bright.

Maybe it's just me but I'm tired of bringing in the old broken down free agents from other teams...I was strongly against bringing in EE last year for the same reason...it's time to trust the 25 year olds. Last year was the year Collins should have spent catching every day in Charlotte but COVID happened....so he spent every day catching in the alternate site with Crochett, Kelly, Dahlquist and Thompson. Young wild explosive arms...with our best catching coaches with him trying to teach him...I don't know what happened but I feel great confidence that he caught the equivalent of 60 games. If he hasn't learned by now they should get rid of him...but I just feel from their actions that they are confident about him. And if he CAN catch? This is one of those things that catapults us from that very good team into the super team...adding a lefty bat at catcher with high on base skills and + power. I think he catches 60 games this year and DH's/1B 70 more and then catches 100 games a year going forward.

Oh I see what you did there...from 1920-1982 the White Sox went to the playoffs once and you can make the optimists look stupid for supporting a team that hasn't made the playoffs very often going back to 1906...hahaha. It hasn't been a legendary franchise...but it's our team so I'm not sure WTF is your point outside of slamming some of the positive people?? White Sox had a playoff team last year and have added two of the top Cy Young candidates from 2020, a solid right fielder, a hall of fame manager, a hot shot pitching coach and will be adding three of top fifty prospects in all baseball to their core of good young players...and you and your ilk want to b**** non stop because we didn't go after some other teams garbage. Honestly give me the water carriers over your cabal of urine carriers.

I think that is entirely fair...life is filled with a series of disappointments...I think the greatest team I followed was that 1994 team that ended with the strike. Still I feel it's different...I feel like we could have the makings of a super team...the A's or Reds of the 70's. And yes it's fair to prick that balloon...but half the fun of winning is the expectations...and the joy of having national media guys remember that there are actually two teams in Chicago. Why couldn't Vaughn come up and hit like Frank Thomas as a rookie? Why couldn't your fifth starter be Kopech for three and Crochett for three? Let's see if all these 25 and younger players can really jell into a great team. I don't want to start the panic trading or panic buying yet. As for the Farm System...I'm never that excited about a system that could produce a dozen major leaguers if they are a dozen solid average players. One Frank Thomas is worth a dozen Tyler Flowers or Yolmer Sanchezs. They are obviously worth something but if your system produces one star your can go pick up the Sanchez's and Flowers, Today, with all the young talent we've brought up the last few years we still have as our top five Kopech, Vaughn, Crochett, Madrigal and Kelly. Each could realistically be a special player. Top four have even looked special against major leaguers. OK...maybe last years list is better but this is very exciting.

Thanks for posting this...and post more often. It is the oddest thing that so many of the regular posters seem to hate the team. I have followed the team like a religion since the early 70's and this is not only the best young team I've followed they might have the best farm team too...and a hall of fame manager, and are managing the budget to try to keep the window open for the longest time possible...and yet somehow every positive is a hidden negative and every negative is a fatal flaw. Just know that there are a lot of us silently watching. If we can't enjoy this team now we can never enjoy anything.

Last White Sox player that came up as a can't miss hitter and a similar hit profile to Vaughn's at a similar age, at a similar position put up a wRC+ of .178 in his rookie year...but he did get better.

I think they have a long term plan for Collins. I feel like their 2019 plan was pushed back because they didnt expect McCann to be the all star catcher he was (for half the season)...but I think 2020 was daily intensive training on Collins being a catcher...they understand he is extremely valuable if he can actually be an average catcher defensively because they think he can be a top ten hitting catcher. Of course the other possibilty is they think he's horrible and they are hiding that...but then why not trade after his great AAA year in 2019? Collins might be most interesting guy to watch in 2021.

Nicely stated.

The weirdness of FIP is that the theory goes that there are three reasons why ERA and FIP are different...sequencing, defense and luck. But sequencing and defense should be the same for all pitchers in an organization (roughly, over a large sample size like a season). So to say Musgrove over his career has a FIP half a run lower than his ERA...but the other pitchers on his team had no difference in their FIP and ERA over the same time...must mean either that Musgrove is terribly unlucky...and we should value him more highly than conventional (ERA) stats or maybe there is something he does that makes his FIP good but his ERA bad. It doesn't really explain that...and that would seem to be important.

Sorry....you're right Flash. Still...total DH hitting last year was .588 OPS and pinch hitters were .627. So just about any warm body should be better than that.