michelangelosmonkey

You see Vaughn/Collins as no improvement over EE's .627 OPS? You think the Adam's won't hit better than Mazara's .589 OPS? I do agree that the team benefitted from the AL Central schedule last year so they might be quite a bit better and end up with 95 wins.

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant That's the formula. If it actually measured the influence of defense it should show, for instance, every Pirates pitcher with a much lower FIP than ERA like Musgroves (actually without Musgrove 2020 Pirates FIP = ERA). It punishes people that give up home runs and walks and don't strike out many. If you give up a ton of singles, doubles and triples, allow 9 runs to score but walk none and strike out 7...you are a GREAT FIP pitcher and ERA hates you. If you walk four, strike out four and give up two runs on solo home runs in 9 innings ERA loves you and FIP hates you. This is not science and FIP > ERA. The ERA stuff actually happens...the guy that actually gave up 2 runs and the guy who actually gave up 9...which is my argument. The FIP argument is the low walk high strikeout guy will eventually become a great pitcher and the High FIP low ERA guy will eventually have to pay the piper. I went back ten years and twelve years and found a few guys with a FIP 1 run lower than his ERA and really saw no breakthroughs. Maybe there is evidence. It is true that over time FIP generally is very close to ERA but to loudly say one is truth is just not so.

That's interesting...I remember Jim Spencer too and that was what I remembered too...that he was this amazing fielder. But he was NOT a good hitting 1B. Even using old timey stats...in 76 and 77 he averaged about 550 at bats, hit about .250 and averaged 16 home runs. We were just so broken as baseball fans in 1976 that we pretended that was good. STill the fielding thing is a bit strange...maybe we just were kids and heard the announcers say it over and over again that he was an amazing fielder. When you look at fielding stats he never made errors....which is good...and had a lot of put outs...but that could be because their rotation was an extreme ground ball rotation. Remember...we were all told that Derek Jeter was a GREAT fielder until the saber heads proved otherwise. Don't give up...the new stats are worth learning.

No you arent one of the negative douches and I largely agree with you...Im just saying we can't completely ignore the old stats. TA was REALLY lucky in 2019 and better in 2020. Maybe part of Ceases ERA success was he has a skill of escaping jams. Lopez it seems was the opposite...he breezed along and then had adversity and fell apart. I really think Cease and Kopech at 4 and 5 for this team is OK.

I'm not moving any goalposts. You stated how many competitive teams are relying on starters with a 6.5 and 7 5 FIP. I merely said they arent...they are relying on Cease and Kopech who have TOR stuff...and FIP is a measuure of what should have happened but when measuring what actually happened, ERA, Cease was at 4.0 and league average was 4.4...and he was only 24 year old. So to say he was horrible just wasnt true.

Ah the science of lucky. If you actually watched his starts he has electric stuff but control issues. It takes many dynamic pitchers years to get control...most teams dont give up on them and give the starts instead to some old declining gas can

No...I'm using ERA to suggest he's not as horrible as you say he is. Walking the bases loaded but getting out of it is either a skill or luck...but its not like Cease was throwing 92 and kept getting lucky. Some guys are brilliant for four innings then they walk a guy and have an error and then give up a three run homer. FIP loves those guys and hates the first. Discarding ERA is as bad as discarding FIP. Cease was frustrating last year but until late September teams weren't scoring off of him. That seems more of a data point than throwing out terms like horendous and ugly.

I'm not sure I understand....what are the "actual facts" about Cease...Cease is 25 (now) with really good stuff...in the actual games last year he gave up 4 runs a game (ERA) which will win him a lot of games with this team.

Last year on Sept 19th Cease was 24 was 5-2 with a 3.20 ERA . Yes FIP says he was was worse...ERA says what actually happened FIP says what should have happened. At the end of the year Cease had the equivalent of 2.7 WAR (again his fwar was much worse but thats because they use FIP). But I gotta say every contending team in baseball would be happy to use Cease as their #4 starter after their three CY Young contenders pitch. As for Kopech...everyone says he looks great. He has overpowering stuff. And if he has 27 starts where he goes 3 innings and Crochet follows him up with 3 innings...each of them get 81 innings for the year which still saves some innings for post season...and again...our fifth starter...3 innings at 100 from the right, 3 inning at 100 from the left...and then Bummer to make them cry. Why do you want ANYONE instead of that.

Sensible post. No teams have starting pitching depth beyond their top five. It is just the chorus of negative voices that permeate every thread on Sox Talk. Gio, Lynn and Dallas were all in the CY Young voting last year and Cease and Kopech have TOR stuff. Which of those five are we sitting to bring in some old gas can? And the idea that "well what happens if someone gets hurt then we have to start Stiever"...brought to you by the same people that are putting Dunning our 5th best prospect in the Hall of Fame while Stiever our 6th best is garbage? To start the season there are six off days in the first six weeks...and likely several rain outs or snow outs. If we have to give Lopez two or three starts...or try a couple of bullpen days (I suspect Katz/TLR are more open to this concept than Renteria/Cooper) that is hardly a disaster. You know who else relied on a couple of 23 year old starting pitchers...the Dodgers last year. The reality is we are not "all in". Last years excitement and positive developments with the young guys has moved us from playoff consideration into championship consideration. But we are still reliant on LOTS of very young guys...I don't think any one of us think 2021 is going to be the teams peak. The Padres sort of had to push all their chips in because they are spending $75 million each year for Machado, Myers and Hosmer and Machado is turning 29 this year while the other two are in their 30's. We right now have one of the most exciting lineups, defenses, starting pitching and bullpens around...it looks like most of the players should be getter better (approaching their prime as opposed to leaving it) and we have kept our budget sound...I don't think we have a single bad contract. Why do we need to trade assets now? Why do we need to pick things off the heap now. I am FINE with letting Robert, Jiminez, Madrigal, Vaughn, Moncada, TA and Collins grow together. I'm fine with letting all our exciting minor league pitchers get some non-COVID pitching time. I am fine with waiting until the all star break to see what weaknesses we have, what strengths we have in the minors and then trade or buy some other teams burdensome contract (Yelich in RF?) or extend Lynn and Gio. We have added four really good parts to a team that was very good last year. This is spring and we should be rejoicing not complaining about not getting some Pittsburgh pitcher that was never any good, or giving a bunch of starts to someone like Quintana, or spending money on some 30+ year old back up catcher. Pitchers and catchers can't get here soon enough.

Just so I'm clear...Lynn will regress, Dallas will regress...but Wainwright and Quintana are fine? Kopech 80 innings/Crochett 80 innings...Kopech 3 at a time followed by Crochett as they stretch out there arms...160 innings...or 160 innings of Wainwright?

I'm not sure what you mean...they landed Lance Lynn who is by almost any measure a top ten pitcher in baseball. Their starting rotation is Gio, Dallas, Lynn (5-6-7 in Cy Young voting), Cease and Kopek/Crochett...with Lopez reclamation if anyone is hurt. Why is that bad? Which one of those guys do you want to take away starts from to give it to Quintana? Why would Quintana or Wainwright want to sign here with Kopech waiting in the wings?

The difference between old time stats and WAR is that WAR tries to take into account fielding and baserunning in a single metric. The reason Fangraphs and Baseball reference have different WARS is that fwar uses Ultimate Zone ratings for their defense and Ultimate base running and weighted stolen bases for their baserunning and rWar uses Total zone ratings for fielding and linear based system for baserunning. The big difference in WAR is with pitchers as FG uses FIP (fielding independent pitching) instead of ERA which doesn't use actual runs scored but uses a predicted runs scored based on the number of walks/hits/homers given up. For MOST pitchers, over a few years FIP is very close to ERA. For some pitchers its a big difference...which is why some heated arguments on Soxtalk about it. Sort of like the batting average balls in play argument...this guy was not as good as he actually was because he was lucky (or unlucky)...but maybe that guy has a skill set that leads to more Babip...and round and round we go. While the fielding and baserunning stats are subjective it tries to be much more objective than the old stats like fielding percentage used to be. 20 years ago old-timey baseball guys thought Derek Jeter was a GREAT fielder...because he played in NY, made some flashy plays occasionally and didn't make any errors. When they started looking at it turns out he was a terrible fielder...-1 defense War per season. Zone ratings calculate how many balls an average player SHOULD get to...it's why Robert is so good...he catches way more balls than the robots think that he should...Jeter was the opposite. The problem with a lot of stats is people use them with too much certainty...the idea is that FIP will give us a better idea of Cease's future than ERA (Cease's FIP is terrible his ERA is pretty good). The future is uncertain...something like FIP should allow us to pick out a hidden gem (as I was arguing in the Musgrove thread) and I really couldn't find much evidence that it did. I think one of the greatest things I ever read about stats was from Moses (Bill James). He said if you sat in the stands every day and watched a baseball team you couldn't tell the difference between a .300 hitter (all star) and a .250 hitter (journeyman) because it amounted to a single hit a week. (500 at bats, 150 hits vs 125 hits over 25 weeks). Because baseball is a game of lots of repetitions a small difference per week can make a big difference over a lot time. Before I get trashed by the throngs...this is just my interpretation of the scientists behind the new stats and you can do a google search on any term and it will explain in minute details by the experts.

This was wonderfully said. I would say that I'm not sure the Sox go after a GG type pitcher. I would also love to see them sign Bauer but the larger point is that they need five starters. Right now they have three chiseled in...Gio, Dallas, LL (5,6 and 7 in CY Young voting). You have Cease etched in...for all the trash he takes he was 5-4 last year with a 4.01 ERA...and with natural improvement as he ages and a new smart guy pitching coach it sure seems like he could get much better. So that leaves a fifth spot...do we really want to clog up that spot with a Garret Richards type...when we have Kopech ready? OK he's not going to be a 200 innings guy but having a Tampa Bay type "starter" game with Kopech for three followed by Crochett by three...what team wants to face that? Who wouldn't pay to watch that? And as our FIFTH starter? As for an emergency starter...we have our own reclamation product in Reylo...he has tons of natural ability and again...new modern pitching coach. I think they are set for war...the lineup looks great, the defense looks great, the relief staff looks great...and I kind of think the starters look great. Save the Bauer money for extensions to Gio and Lynn and let's head to spring training. Re-evaluate at the trade deadline.

Where on earth did you draw that conclusion? If you think this is a finished project youre more optimistic to me. But that doesnt mean they shouldnt take a shot this year while hoping Moncada, Robert, Eloy, Vaughan and all the young pitchers take the next step.

Baseball reference shows him with .5 WAR in 29 games...which comes out to 2.5 WAR per season...as a 23 year old...at near zero cost. The glory of the White Sox right now is that they have so many guys that will be going through growing pains that you won't even notice. Robert and Eloy and Madrigal and Vaughan and Cease and Kopech and on and on can go through a bad month without it costing us because it is liking when they are having a good month they can be so good.

No he hurt his shoulder five games into his rookie season, was out for three weeks...came back and played the rest of the season almost certainly in pain as he had surgery on that shoulder as soon as the season was done. I'm no doctor but it would seem the act of diving for a ball or to steal a base would be mentally and physically terrifying for a 23 year old playing in the majors for the first time and might effect his fielding and baserunning. But you are right...Pods was amazing before he was hurt...and his skill should be considered outside of the stats when he was playing hurt.

So you are saying that Pods lack of success after his injury is not worth considering...and yet Madrigal's injury is irrelevant? Just asking for a friend.

I mean who are you to say that Soxsteve's strong opinion is wrong? Some guy on Soxtalk claims to be an insider and thus he knows more? You know what would happen if the "insider' were ACTUALLY an insider (maybe he is) and he was outed...so now it is...Paul Sullivan reports White Sox are shopping Madrigal...Half the board would say...when was the last time Sullivan ever reported anything he's just throwing crap against the wall...a quarter of the board would say he is just a mouth piece for Jerry Reinsdorf...and a quarter of the board would be panicked that we were trading Madrigal for Tampa Bay's garbage. No one knows the future with any certainty at all including Rick Hahn and to confidently shout someone down for having the wrong opinion is goofy. SoxSteve makes a strong point that core pieces of the rebuild like Madrigal and Vaughan should not be traded. I made a point about us undervaluing the skillset of Madrigal and we would be foolish to trade him away. But I also think RH would be foolish for not seeing what he can get for Madrigal...and Vaughan...and everyone else. I'm sure he'd take a call from the Yankees...Robert for Gerrit Cole? Or the Mets...Moncada for deGrom? OK, let's talk. Like any knucklehead in a fantasy league the point is to value our assets and get a sense of how other teams value of our assets...and if we see a way to leverage a trade to make the Sox better let's consider. Personally I'd like to stand pat from here and see how the soufflé rises. In the off season we've added a top 10 starting pitcher, a top 5 relief pitcher, a historically useful right fielder and seem to be replacing EE with the very exciting Vaughan and the only asset we lost is one of our 12 exciting young unproven starting pitchers...and Vegas looks at our team and loves us. Soxtalk should be a love fest.

Soxtalk is a meandering river. You should see our debate on thermodynamics in the "NBC Sports is going away" thread.

So what sample size did you require to determine his uselessness? First major league game? First inning of a major league game? Those idiots at BA, MLB.com, MLB pipeline and Baseball prospectus all have thought for the last two years that he was one of the 50 best prospects in all of baseball. He won the PAC 12 player of the year, College gold glove, PAC 12 defensive player of the year. First year in the minors he won the GG for minor league 2b while hitting .311. Are they using a different baseball in the majors? Is there some fundamental reason his entire history and the scores of scouts and analysts that think he is a +fielder and +runner are all wrong?

Poppy I love your optimism. What frustrates me is the near universal belief on Soxtalk that someone with Madrigal's skill set is so replaceable. Tampa Bay traded with Oakland to get a 2b in 2018. TB is a smart team. That year their second base man hit 7 home runs, stole 16 of 20 bases and put up a .300/.354/.435 slash line...and was worth 4.8 WAR. That was the 22nd best WAR for all non pitchers in the majors. That's what people see in Madrigal. Fangraph says 2B is one of the weakest positions in baseball...Yolmer was the average 2B in 2018. Perhaps the White Sox have totally given up on him given the couple of outs he ran into on the base path and the couple of errors he made as a 23 year old rookie as our "insiders" say. Perhaps three or four silly mistakes for a first time major leaguer are too much to look past while the .340 batting average is just SSS. I just think Hahn is smarter than that...and there are very few pitchers out there that are worth the risk of losing a 3 WAR player for the next 6 years at a talent starved position that will cost almost nothing.

Honestly...this can't be true? Why would he come to a team with a racist, drunken manager the cheapest owner in baseball, the dumbest GM in baseball, a team that will NEVER sign a high priced free agent, and that as we speak are trading our entire farm system for the Phillies mascot. Is he even aware of our record from 2013 -2019? Did he know we traded Fernando Tatis, Jr. Soxtalk where optimism goes to be strangled to death.

That's a real dick comment. Sorry if you got confused by my Musgrove comments...where he had two good starts at the end of the COVID season preceded by 32 starts where he gave up 5.3 runs a game. I thought that might be relevant data points to discuss...I thought it was an interesting fact that might be worth consideration that wasn't easily seen. Perhaps it was confusing to you and you will stalk me through threads calling me the "guy who takes out his best games". Troll on.

He his .341 his rookie year, provided the equivalent of 2 WAR offense and 1 WAR defense (30 games x 5) at 23. Why are Nellie Fox comps not still in order? Why is it hyperventilating to be excited about a player that is exactly the kind of player that this team needs? When half the board wants to trade him for a bucket of balls. The idea that we can "easily" upgrade him is curious...FG's suggests 2B is one of the weakest positions in baseball. You know how many 2B in 2019 had a WAR better than 3? 8 in all of baseball. We need to give this kid as much patience as we do with all the other budding stars on the team.