michelangelosmonkey

Yes...there's a lot to hate about Lopez...but it's just hard to forget the 14 strikeout 6 inning game against the Tigers or the one hitter against the Indians late in the season. He's only 27 and Katz...ever hopeful...but I agree we don't want to start the season with him as our fifth starter.

I'm arguing that somewhere inside of Reylo is an amazing pitcher. I hope Katz can pull it out of him. Nothing more than that.

And just to have a bit of fun with Cherry Picking...his ten best starts in 2019: 68 Innings pitched, 84 strike outs to 18 walks, 1.19 ERA Oh Reylo...how you tantalized us...and now you are unredeemable garbage.

No his last 32 starts from May 1st 2019 to mid September 2020 his ERA was 5.28. And ultimately FIP should equal ERA...and I wrote that I went back and looked at several three year periods where a guy with a FIP half a run lower than his ERA portended a break out guy and in the two periods I found no examples. Doesn't mean I'm right...doesn't mean you are wrong...it just means I'm very cautious about this. And honestly...if Reylo had finished 2020 with the exact same two starts in late September against the exact same two teams...NO ONE on this board would be saying...this guy is a breakthrough #3 starter or maybe better. We would all be saying...well that was weird...interesting...intriguing...but I don't trust it.

Wow thats pretty hostile. I wasnt being dense about his "bad" start..he had a total of 0 quality starts in 2020 before the wonder two. He had two starts, in September, after his injury, where he gave up 2 runs in 3 innings and 4 runs in 5 innings. I thought those were bad two...as were several other ugly 2020 starts....thats how you end up with an era near 6 in mid September. As for the corraborating scouts where you imply I'm an idiot..you gave one un-named high ranking NL "official". Pirates VP of sales is a NL official. Anyway Im tired of this. Two inarguable facts-- JM was amazing his last two starts and he was terrible the previous 32. peace

He didn't have one AWEFUL game that drove down his stats. That was Lance Lynn. Again...his WAR (baseball reference) show's him for his whole career as a 1 WAR kind of a guy. When people started throwing around his fWAR and all sorts of reasons why he is a hidden gem...I looked deeper. Not sure why you are slamming me...if he had a long history of being really good and then had a down period because of arm troubles and I ignored that well then I'm a dope. But why is what I'm saying not at least interesting? I'm not saying it's conclusive...spin rates, and xfip and usage rates and whatever all sounds very sciency...but why have the results been so mediocre. Especially when the two GREAT performances came from weird situations. If you told me the New Orleans Saints pass defense was amazing and used as a data point their game against the Broncos where they held them to 1 completion and 13 yards of total passing offense...without the context that Denver was missing their top 4 quarterbacks because of COVID I would say the stats are a bit tainted. I am fairly certain no team in 50 years has played 10 road games in 7 days. Danny Duffy and his 5 ERA also shut out the Indians.

I don't get why you are ignoring his previous 32 starts before those last two fluky starts in 2020. ERA of 5.28 in 32 starts...a full season of Reylo. ERA is what actually happened. xFIP is what some people think may have happened if what happened didn't happen...and as I wrote...FIP should be predictive...you should be able to get in your time machine and go back and find someone on a bad team that has a FIP 1/2 a run lower than his ERA and then see how that flower blossomed...and I went over two different three year periods from 10 and 13 years ago (arbitrarily) and basically found no one. I wouldn't mind taking a flier on someone like that for nothing...but trading assets for that???? People on here are willing to trade Madrigal ++ for him.

I like Q because of his history with us, his being a lefty, even when he's not been very good the last three years he was basically as good as Musgrove 2018-20(by WAR not fWAR which I'm still a bit dubious of) and he will only cost money...plus they only need a two year window before I think they will have a number of these young guys blossom. I don't want Musgrove blocking Cease, Crochet, Kopech development. I still think they might get Bauer because I fully believe they will drop $150-200 mill on a contract in the next 12 months...I'm just not positive Bauer is the guy they want to do it for. It's SO early in their window and they have proven to be willing to spend top 5 payroll in the 00's, 90's and 80's if the team is good. The team is good...management has said they will spend...but they are still shopping.

His ERA on September 19th of his "very promising season" was 5.74...he then pitched against an exhausted St Louis in a day game following a night game, their 10th road game in 7 days...and then the anemic Cleveland offense on the second last day of the season after they had clinched a playoff spot and fallen behind by 8 runs by the 4th. Isn't it just possible that we are throwing those two outlier games into a SSS and seeing rising greatness when it is just a mirage? It's pretty easy to get a pitcher to give up 5.5 runs a game without giving up any assets.

Too stupid to argue with

You are the WORST...No one ever made the argument that Bauer is as good as Ty Cobb...except you. I gave half a dozen examples of dicks that won WS from AJ to Ty Cobb to Aaron Rogers to Isiah Thomas. You have offered ZERO counter examples. I think it would not be hard to find one ass in every group of 25 professional athletes so the idea that signing Bauer and his Cy Young award would hurt the team because...chemistry...is just idiotic.

I appreciate your thoughtful explanations on FIP and your defense of Musgrove...though fWAR is the only defense of him being good. And I'm not being snarky...you forced me to study this stuff and it's interesting. . Still maybe it just explains why he is bad and not why he is going to be good. I went back and did another three year window 2007-2010 to try to find that guy that FIP should uncover...a guy from a bad fielding team, bad bullpen, bad luck, whatever...and honestly you get in a time machine with your FIP stuff and you just don't find a guy that's 28 with a FIP half a run better than his ERA that then goes on to be a 3 WAR guy. I'm sure it has happened and it could happen with Musgrove but it seems more likely that we make the trade, throw in a lottery ticket and he turns out to be the best player in baseball.

The argument shouldn't be "should the White Sox trade from organizational depth" it should be when and for whom. I know I'm a broken record but Musgrove Sept 26th, 2020 his greatest game ever by game score against Indians...who had already clinched a playoff spot, bottom 5 offense and Pirates got 8 runs in first 4. Sept 20th, 2020--his second greatest game score of his career against Cards...Sunday afternoon game after Saturday night game and the Cards were playing their TENTH road game in 7 days (three doubleheaders that week). Previous 32 starts 5.28 ERA. You really want to throw THREE assets including a top 6 prospect for that???? Sign Q for money only....let the young players improve their value in minors until trade deadline...see how our young major league pitchers are developing and then trade them for someone actually good from a team that is bad or is imploding...Castillo from the Reds, Bieber from the Indians, deGroom from the Mets or like that.

This is always your way of arguing...you make some fluffy statement backed with nothing but your opinion...people quote you stats countering your opinion...you say the stats are meaningless...then offer no counter data...then typically you demean the person you are disagreeing with and say they are not addressing the argument. Do you think maybe this is the reason SO MANY people on this board have called you a dick? Your position was "clubhouse cancers destroy teams" and so I merely googled most hated players in baseball and quoted you the top five in order. AJ was not an all time great outside of being a great ass and yet he was instrumental in the Sox winning the WS.... Billy Martin's WS teams used to have fist fights in the dugouts. Sure when you have a fringe team like the early 2010's White Sox a couple of bad personalities can make them look terrible but please show me some evidence in any sport (Isiah Thomas was supposedly a monster, Michael Jordan gave out no, no one likes Aaron Rogers). If your revised position is "Bad players that are jerks don't help you win" or "great players that are jerks don't help bad teams win" I will happily agree.

This may be true for bad teams. I just looked at Bleacher report's "25 most hated players in baseball history" In order...Ty Cobb--3 World Series, Pete Rose-- 6 World Series, Alex Rodriguez--1 WS, Barry Bonds--1 WS, Roger Clemens--6 WS...so that's your top five biggest A**holes in baseball history and everyone went to the world series and combined they went to 17. I'm pretty sure talent trumps attitude. I remember when AJ came to the White Sox and the chorus sang that he destroys clubhouses and everyone hated him. It's possible that the company picnic won't be as fun but hating Bauer's politics isn't going to stop Eloy from hitting 50 home runs or Robert's range in CF dropping.

ok...I always relied on BR because they have. such a great sight...and their WAR says Musgrove is a journeyman. Your argument is that if you use FG and their FIp vs ERA and fWar instead of war we can see Musgrove is undervalued. I liked your argument so i researched FG. Fip should be predictive...so i went back 10 years and used the years 2010-2012 to wash out randomness...and then looked for pitchers with fip half a run lower than era...to find the gems about to break out. it did a great job with Greinke...but he was already a star with BR War of 10 onw year. but the other guys were Luke Hochevar and Jeff Francis and our guy Gavin Floyd. Gf was 29 and never put up a 1.5 war after. This was not an exhaustive study but i sure didnt find any 28 year old journeymen that then became 3 War guys. Im sure it exists but the problem is mostly ERA=fip (which makes sense) but isnt it possible that FIP is subjective? Arent we looking at what should have happened over what did? I dont know...if you flip a coin a 1000 times and it comes up heads 70% of the time...arent you questioning the coin ?

I think thats all reasonable. Sometimes you have to take a chance on an ex-Pittsburgh pitcher. Im just nervous and miss lefty Q and fear giving up valuable assets on a maybe.

Cherry picking is taking two games in May and two games in July and a game in August and September and excluding them...which is wholly unfair. But Im looking at 32 consecutive starts over two seasons and OK....I used shorthand...Ill accept 5.28. You know who had 33 starts with a 5.38 ERA in 2019 but against the DH league...yup Reylo. Im fine with trading assets but Musgrove had no success before 2019 and his success in 2020 was not some build to a crescendo...Im not excluding 25% of the year...he had two good starts at the very end of the year and four good starts at the very beginning of the previous year and for the next year and a half he was Reylo and if that doesnt give you pause nothing will.

Honestly...32 of last 34 starts his ERA was 5.50...thats not cherry picked its 32 of last 34...and the two good starts were against Clevelands anemic offense and an exhasted St Louis team after all those double headers at the very end of 2020. 5.50 Real improvement and fip and zip and filthy stuff all you want...it should be concerning to give up Stievers.

How is looking at game logs manipulating stats? Reylo had an AMAZING game against a much better Cleveland team in late September of 2019. Maybe we should trade for him.

Yes for Konnor Pinklington not Stiever. Quintana is free and I suspect Q + Stiever is better than Musgrove over five years.

Im not sure its a "trick". Its a trick to just look at a single number and say "truth". I dug into his individual starts and his last two starts in late September were stellar...but before that and through all of his non-April stats in 2019 he was bad. Thats 32 consecutive starts...and smart people on here are always saying beware of end of season anomalies. And while you cant ignore the great April of 2019 or the great late September of 2020...shouldnt the bad in between be a point of interest?

If you use fWAR he looks better. WAR says about 1 per year...and the peripherals look good but i keep asking this...Musgrove May 1, 2019 to Sept 20, 2020. 32 starts, in NL with a 5.5 ERA.  Would we accept trading a major asset for a guy that will give up 5.5 runs a game.

I agree about Stievers range of accounts. I just cant understand holding that reasonable position at the same time as having absolute confidence in DD greatness inspite the very thin actual evidence. And Musgrove has been a 1 WAR pitcher his whole career...fWar is 2...expecting 3 WAR going forward is wonderfully optimistic. His actual game by game evidence over 2 years is hard to deny unless of course you choose to not look.

Im just not sure about fWar...When i see Meada as better than Giolito...Hendricks better than Scherzer...it doesnt feel right.