michelangelosmonkey

So Lance Lynn is a 3 WAR pitcher. Ignoring last year where he was 6th in CY YOUNG voting and had an ERA of 2.50 and pitched the most innings in baseball but gave up 9 ER in a meaningless last start of the year that skewed his stats? And still he had 2.2 WAR which = 5.9 in normal year (162/60=2.7 multiplier). So LL has put up in career order WAR of 2, 2.1, 3.6, 3.4, 3.2, arm trouble year, 7.6, 5.9 and you see what??? And Musgrove is a 3 WAR pitcher in spite HIS career WAR which has been 0.5, 0.1, 1.3, 1.8 and 1.3 (using the 2.7 multiplier to be fair). And Dane Dunning is going to be a 3 WAR guy next year based on TWO good games against the worst offenses in baseball...and lets ignore all other data as that would be cherry picking. And Stiever is nothing because at 23 he only had ONE good game in the majors and one bad start...and we can ignore the 6-1 K/BB rate prior and all the scouts and evaluations because, oh shut up. OK...really not a lot of room to argue with this. I feel soundly defeated.

The only actual argument prior to this that I can find from you in this thread is that Lynn was not a top ten pitcher in 2020 (6th in CY voting....ERA of 2.53 with the most innings pitched in the majors before last start in late September) and if you use a reasonable time frame of 2 years (FG 5th in WAR) or 3 years (FG 8th in WAR) he is clearly a top ten pitcher. And let's get this out of the way upfront...I don't care about "future stats" whether they come from inside your head or Zips or Steamer or whatever...you are taking what someone thinks might happen in the future as the foundation of your arguments and at that point it would be better to say something like...my gut tells me that Lynn is going to fall off the mountain...and I can accept that...I argued strongly here last year that EE was a terrible idea for the same reason...stats said he would be good but my gut said he was ready to fall off the cliff. As for Musgrove your argument about him being worth more because he is controlled for more years suggests that this is a good thing ignoring my point which is from May 1st 2019 to September 19th 2020...which is his most recent 32 starts excepting his last two starts in late September in the COVID year...his ERA is 5.40. And yes his FIP was better...but he committed four of the errors himself. And most of that was against DH less NL and playing in the low pressure environment of Pittsburgh. You can throw all sorts of stats at me but he has not been historically good, he's 28, he's been traded twice by smarter teams than Pittsburgh and you want to give up actual assets to get him. Your next argument is that it's fine to give up Stiever for the not historically good Musgrove because Stiever isn't that good and not nearly comparable to Dunning. I like Dunning and I think it was a fair trade. I showed you scouting evaluations from the most recent season that they pitched without COVID crazy and they were basically rated exactly the same...and almost all rating sites had them as #5 and 6 in the Sox system. Further age is a HUGE variable in rating prospects and Stiever is much younger than Dunning. In fact the whole board was super excited about Stiever after his first mlb start where he gave up 1 run in 3 2/3 and struck out 3 and we were polishing up his hall of fame plaque and then he got shelled against the Reds and suddenly he's worthless and we can't get rid of him soon enough (and oddly ignoring DD giving up 8 ER in his last 7 innings). Stiever is an exciting pitching prospect and I'm fine with giving him up someday but not for a guy that has not really shown that he is anything but a failed prospect. (which is where Lopez discussion came in because we have our own failed pitcher with great stuff). Finally your argument about Dunning being basically as good as Lynn based on future stats??? Dane pitched a great game against KC and a great game against Pittsburgh in September. Outside of that he gave up 6 runs a game and was walking 4.5 a game in his other five starts. (And gave up 2 hits to four hitters in the playoffs). So this great crystal ball machine you base your arguments on sees a guy coming off of major arm surgery...that pitched two pretty good games against the two worst offenses in baseball in September of the COVID year but other than that he was pretty close to garbage...and next year he is going to be nearly as good as 5th best pitcher in baseball over the last 2 seasons? Maybe...could happen.

Are you drunk? Lance Lynn the last three years by any metric is a top ten pitcher in baseball...though in fairness I didn't use the 2021 stats that you see in your head. It also seems you prefer to use the last two starts in September of the COVID year as the entire basis for comparison of pitchers and if we can all agree that this is the way to do it...you win....Musgrove is WAY better than Lynn. As far as me not understanding Milb levels....wow...there are LEVELS in the minor leagues??? That's why I come to you for insight...you not only see the future but you also have keen insight into arcane knowledge like "AA" and "A" baseball. Maybe my problem in analysis is I stuck to age, Pipeline scouting stats, athleticism, track record, and multiple rating sites showing DD #5 and Stiever #6 in Sox system when I should have used your 2021 "vision" stats and the last two starts in COVID year (though please ignore DD's last two starts and concentrate more on his 2021 stats) to come to my hyperbolic claim that Stiever isn't garbage. For you convenience here is the actual definition of hyperbole as you seem to be so very confused: Hyperbole: 1) obvious and intentional exaggeration. 2) an extravagant statement or figure of speech not intended to be taken literally

Ok the only absurd comment made is "Lopez could be the worst starting pitcher in baseball next year". Of course Lopez could be...or Musgrove or Kershaw...we don't know the future until it happens. What Lopez is, and it has been said over and over again...is a once exciting pitcher that seems to be failed. What Musgrove is is a mediocre pitcher on his third organization that is a year older than Lopez, has about the same career WAR and outside of two end of the season starts in late September of COVID year had a 5.5 ERA the previous 160 low pressure innings (Pirates bad) he's pitched against the non-DH league. And still NO ONE HAS SAID Lopez>Musgrove...people have been saying Musgrove is not so much better that you give up a top 6 prospect...let alone top 6 ++. And it has also been said that Quintana for free is better than Musgrove for a 3 assets. As for your weird take on Stiever vs Dunning...why? Here is 2019 MLB Pipeline scouting grades Pitcher A Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50 Pitcher B Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50 Pitcher A sat out 2019 with Tommy John Surgery Pitcher B pitched 145 innings in 2019 and had nearly 10K/9 and a 6-1 Strike out to walk rate. Pitcher A is three years older than Pitcher B Pitcher A threw 34 pretty average major league innings last year Pitcher B threw 6 pretty bad major league innings last year. And your position is that Pitcher A is worth more than a top ten pitcher in baseball and Pitcher B is worthless? Interesting.

In isolation it looks good...but if he can't put it together in meaningful ways in a 6 inning pitching performance what does that matter? He was drafted by the Blue Jays and they traded him, Houston had him and they traded him (and Houston is not a dumb team). He's 28 now...he peaked at #8 best prospect for Astros six years ago...and we want to trade Stiever our #6 prospect, who's 23, ++ for him? Honestly why is Quintana not just about as good and costs nothing (For the XFIP guys that had Musgrove as the 35th best pitcher in baseball over the last three years...Quintana was right behind him and he's basically free).

I think you are misrepresenting the argument. The argument is Lopez is a failed prospect who in the last three years has a higher peak (game score or WAR) than Musgrove and you don't have to trade an asset for Lopez...let alone multiple. Also the worst pitcher in baseball in 2018 worked with Katz and became a top 10 pitcher in baseball and we wonder if Katz can do the same for the potential of Lopez. I for one think Musgrove is overvalued...if you look at his season last year his last two starts in late September were great...but other than that he had a 6 ERA. In his only good year he had a fantastic April 2019 but after that had a 5.3 ERA...in the no-DH NL. Musgrove is 28 and if you see some kind of star in here I'm not sure what you are looking at. As for overvaluing Stiever...seems like the board is undervaluing him. People are ready to trade him for anything because of a lower than expected velocity in 6 innings in his first major league experience (where Cooper was probably telling him to sacrifice velocity for accuracy). He was their #6 prospect a year ago when Dane Dunning was #5, is 2 years younger than DD, and is a better athlete with better pure stuff than DD and the board lost their minds over trading DD for a top 10 pitcher in baseball. If, as you suggest we trade Stiever and two other top 10 prospects for Musgrove, I fear for our future.

Yes I think you and I are the only ones that haven't completely given up on him...though there is a fine line between optimist and idiot. Lopez will be 27 this year and the last two years have been mostly ugly. But as I wrote earlier...he's had more very well pitched games than Musgrove over the last three years (by game score). Somewhere inside him is a very good pitcher. You can also see how Lopez's pitching strategy has been taken over by Cooper...from near 70% fastball/curveball in his best year of 2018 to 50% slider/changeup last year. When he came to the White Sox a big part of his arsenal was the power curveball that he never threw last year. It's not impossible that Katz's studies him and can get him back on track...and we don't have to trade assets to get him.

Again...last two games in late September he was VERY good...before that he had an ERA of 6. In 2019 he was 1 WAR better than Reylo and in 2018 he was 2 WAR worse. In his best year ever he was 98th in the majors in pitching WAR...worse than Gio Gonzalez...his best year ever was worse than Gio age 33. Honestly Quintana is lefty, has a better track record, better peak and costs you nothing. Why are we even talking about this guy?

I'm guilty of thinking that Joe Musgrove isn't very good and neither is Lopez so why trade assets for the Pirates failed pitcher when we have one of our own.

But you did say "Musgrove is clearly vastly superior..." to Lopez. Lopez we can all agree was horrid last year...but it was a weird Covid shortened season...he's younger than Musgrove and three years ago was clearly vastly superior. Even in 2019, by far Musgrove's best year...he had 5 game scores over 70 and topped out at 78. Lopez in 2019 had 6 game scores over 70 and topped out at 89. If you want to compare 2018-19-20 Musgrove had 9 game scores over 70 with a peak of 80... Lopez had 14 with several in the upper 80's. Peak Lopez is better than peak Musgrove so it would seem a smart pitching coach can figure out how to get more peak. In fact Musgrove's top two pitched games ever were late September Covid year. Before his last two late September starts he had an ERA nearly 6. If the idea is to take a chance on unleashing the potential in one of the two...how about we do it on the one we already have that won't cost us Stiever and Bush.

Look at LeMahieu 3 years with Colorado...from 15-17. He put up 10.3 WAR while hitting just 8 homer runs per year...he started hitting more home runs after that but he certainly had a 6 year stretch averaging 3 WAR. Placido Polanco averaged 3 WAR for 14 years and only once hit more than 15 home runs. Howie Kendrick hit a few more homers but was a worse fielder and had a six year stretch of 4 WAR. Nellie Fox 10 year stretch of 5 WAR a year. Rod Carew is the ceiling for little-power, slick fielding, fast 2B and he had 7 WAR a year for 7 years. Half the board wants to trade away Madrigal for a bucket of balls and replace him with a 30 year old 1 WAR 2b with the idea that Madrigal is just a guy...based on a couple of fielding/baserunning errors as a 23 year old rookie by the same people that ignore his .380 OBP as a rookie and the mounds of scouts saying he will be a + fielder and + baserunner. I wouldn't even trade him straight up for Snell...Snell is 28, had one amazing season but his other 4 he's average 1 WAR. It's ok to not see Madrigal as a superstar. NO one thought Placido Polanco was a superstar...he only made two All Star games...yet 42 WAR in 14 years is exactly the kind of career I expect Madrigal to have. And in a team with a galaxy of stars...a guy that we never talk about but never strikes out, plays GG caliber 2b and gets on base with good speed. Is REALLY valuable.

The two pitchers have pitched a combined 10 years. Only one year were either of them a "stud" and that was Lopez in 2018...a year you choose to ignore. To call Lopez trash and Musgrove gold just seems confused. They both have had a lot of chances and i wouldnt trade much for either...but i also wouldnt be shocked if either turned it around for a nice three year run. Maybe Lopez for Musgrove

Interesting that you use 2019 as cutoff and not 2018 when Lopez put up a 3.4 War which is nearly double the best year of Musgrove. Lopez has great stuff too. Both are somewhat failed prospects...why trade for theirs?

We have SO many good young pitchers that could be as good or better than Musgrove...we have a 23 year old 2B that just hit .340 and could give us 6 years of 3 WAR per year value at low salary. Why would we want to do this? Is Musgrove better than Lopez? Each with 5 years. Lopez is younger, Musgrove has 1 more WAR but Lopez a higher peak. Lopez costs nothing and could break through with new pitching coach.

i think he either is a major leaguer this year or never will be. He will be 26 by opening day. I also think he probably caught the equivalent of 1/2 a AAA season this year...they had him calling games, working with pitchers, figuring out their stuff...he was just doing it behind the scenes. They also wouldn't be requiring him to be full time starter...just catch 50 games. He's caught games in the majors before and wasn't terrible. If he is sent to AAA that means they don't believe in him and never will. I think they believe in him.

I would be shocked if they do this. I really believe they have a Collins plan...I think all of this year they had him catching the top prospects in the alternate training sight teaching him how to be a catcher. ..coaching him every day. They didn't need him in 2020 with McCann and Grandal so they taught him. I've been a big supporter of Collins and I think a guy with an elite batters eye and elite power and a lefty bat has enormous value as a back up catcher/dh/1B guy. Bringing on some old free agent catcher seems more 2018 White Sox than 2021 White Sox.

Gotta say I would be lining up for tickets for the Crochet-Kopech days. Imagine 3 innings of 100 mile heat from the left followed by 3 inning of 100 mile heat from the right.

It's nice to get a brief break from "JR is cheap" "TLR is a drunk" "RH is the worst GM ever" over and over in every thread to listen to this little oasis of sanity. Wow is this exciting. The idea of Katz working with Cease, Lopez, Kopeck and Crochett...be still my heart. There's also a nice article in Bleacher Report about the White Sox home grown relief staff. So very much positive in this organization. So much to be excited about.

I don't know...they seem like basically the same player. Here is WAR for the five years before the free agency for each (most recent year first). Upton and Heyward were both significantly younger and neither of them were told what the next pitch was going to be. I'm not saying that Springer will be bad...I'm just challenging your assumption that Springer will certainly be good. Upton and Heyward went on to provide their new teams 1 WAR per year for $20 mill a year. You could even argue that the Heyward and Quintana moves were what turned the Cubs Dynasty into the Cubs abject failure. Upton Heyward Springer Age 28 26 31 4.2 6.9 2.2 3.1 5.5 6.4 2.8 3.6 2.7 2.4 5.5 5 5.5 2 5.1 Total 46 49.5 52.4

You're kidding right? If you set the number for a mega deal at $100,000,000 and you just look the least four years...Eric Hosmer, Cespedes, Chris Davis, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmerman... would all fall into the "ohmigod what have we done" category...that's about half of the mega contracts. If you are confident that Springer isn't Justin Upton...who put up a 5.5 WAR the year before he left and about 4 WAR combined the next four years Or Jason Heyward who put up an average of 5.5 WAR for the four years before the big contract and about 1.5 WAR after the contract. Big contract free agents are still a crap shoot.

Why? Isn't it possible that management is about to sign Colas...and think Adolfo or Lugo with a real minor league season give us a bright future in RF without spending $125 million for a 31 year old who had his best hitting season when he knew what pitches were coming? What if we trade for Yelich? What if we sign Bauer? I just don't get the Sox hatred...the off season isn't done. They have proven that they will be a top five spending team if they are real good. Might it not be a better time to go shopping at the trade deadline where we see how our minor league guys develop...and see how Eaton performs? We don't have to race in and throw our money at the first pretty face we see.

The good news is that last two times (mid 90's and mid-00's) when the White Sox had great teams JR spent for top five payrolls. Top five payroll now means $175 million...and we are only at $100 mill with the raises...so there is a TON of upside potential for our payroll. I think something big is going to happen.

Springer is 31. His OPS was down nearly 100 points last year and before that he was told in advance what pitches were coming...and he'll probably cost $100 mill more than Eaton. Everyone carries risk.

Do you mean Springer?

1) Altuve was a NEGATIVE WAR last year...I would be so mad if we traded Danny Mendick for Altuve because clearly Mendick is better based on a couple of hundred at bats in a pandemic year with no fans. It's ridiculous to look at Eaton's 3500 career at bats prior to COVID and we should judge him on his 176 COVID at bats...for the same reason I wouldn't trade a bucket of balls for Christian Yelich. 2) EAton's last five non-COVID years....he had three years of 95% of games played and two injured years. Even last year he played in 70% of the games. Is your fear that his broken pinkie from last year is going to haunt him? 3) Not sure this point as they still have Adam Engel and I suspect he will play a lot. 4) JR is demonstrably not a cheap ass (top five payroll in the mid-90's when they were good and top five in the mid-00's when they were good), TLR is a hall of fame manager. AE hasn't failed...the last time we saw him in the non-COVID world he hit nearly 1.000 OPS in helping his team win the World Series. Remind me again why you are a White Sox fan?