michelangelosmonkey

Soxtalk has gotten so cringy. Every single post/poster seems to hate everything about the team. There are no optimism threads and any thread of interesting speculation is soon buried under an avalanche of “funny” hate. A troll on Soxtalk is someone that says something positive…but here goes…trolling. As I have pointed out frequently…in the 80’s, 90’s and 00’s when Sox were in a competitive window they were top five payroll. JR does not spend heavily in times of non-contention…which as a businessman makes sense. We are now clearly in a window of contention (yes last year was painful…look at Phillies of 2020/21). We spent $215 on payroll last year and top 5 was $240. This idea that we will only spend $180 is pretty much the same nonsense from a couple of years ago when we would never spend over $150. We have Keuchel $18.5 mill and Abreu $17 mill dropping off our books….they could basically take that money and sign Aaron Judge. Despite the reality that we have not signed any big fish it is clear that they were trying to land big fish with serious offers to Machado and Wheeler. Spotrac has us with $145 committed for 2023. So why not Aaron Judge? He’s got a career .980 OPS. He’s been a plus defender for most of his career. He’s an outfielder which is clearly our biggest need. He can even play a serviceable CF in a pinch ( as can Colas). An outfield of Judge/Colas/Robert could be elite offensively and defensively. It’s a single move that can restore faith, sell tickets and give JR a chance for that last ring. We have the budget, he fits a need lets blow up the world.

Hardball Times aging curve. Abreu entering year 36 and Vaughn entering year 25. At 35/24 Abreu put up a .820 OPS down from previous year and forty points below his career average and Vaughn put up a .750 OPS up fifty points from age 23. And remember...Vaughn sat out his age 22 year because of Covid shutdown and his age 21 year he never played above A ball. He's aging and growing into his body while learning how to play in the major leagues and being forced into a new position. I would be surprised if Vaughn didn't put up a better OPS than Abreu this year. I love Abreu but I don't want to give 10% of the annual budget for the next three years to his 36-37-38 years. I also think that Vaughn will put up an .850 OPS at first base for the next five years. Without digging deeply into it I think the lost COVID year (minor leagues + Kopek) hurt the Sox window more than Tony LaRussa. So many young guys on the cusp that should have helped last year but lost a full year of development. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Screenshot-2015-12-09-at-8.54.11-PM-e1449712514782.png

Who ranks them? My god you act as if these ranking agencies have some sort of magical predictive power. I remember that #1 ranked White Sox farm system in 2000. Hats off to all the smart guys. I really can't recall the guys having Semien and his 30 WAR by 30 being considered a can't miss prospect. 2014 he was listed behind Erik Johnson and Matt Davidson. Geniuses. Sox have a whole lot of exciting players under 27 and then another wave at 21 and younger...which seems sensible...to all except the "look at their rankings" crowd. As always...It takes me a few hours of writing on Soxtalk to remember why I never want to comment.

OK I surrender. Ober is better than Lance Lynn. You would trade Dylan Cease for Sonny Gray straight up. We'd have to throw in picks to get Archer, the 33 year old, career 5 ERA starter, for Gio because of 5 bad starts after being one of the best pitchers in baseball the previous three years? You'd trade the 24 year old Robert for the 28 year old Buxton but have to throw in some extra. Jeffers and his .600 OPS is better than Grandal and his career .800 OPS? How much would we have to include with the 27 year old 12 career WAR Moncada to get the 30 year old 6 career WAR Urshella. I appreciate the deep analysis.

So it doesn't count? My god we are a self loathing fanbase.

Honestly man...this is creating a hate cloud. Hahn tried for three years to win with the Sale/Quintana/Abreu core and it wasn't enough so he blew it up beautifully. We had to go through the rebuild which again seems like it was great. All the whining on here that the Sox never ever have gone to the playoffs two years in a row and then when we do..."big f'ing deal"???? As for the 30th ranked farm team bs...I argued about that in the off season and was shouted down. There are some REALLY good players on this 30th ranked farm system they are just really young. Colas, Montgomery, Vera, Sosa, Kath, Ramos...its easy to say "sox suck look at their farm ranking" without even bothering to look at the potentials. They could have 2 or 3 in top hundred by end of the year.

I hated the Rodon situation too. He would have been my #1 priority in the off season. Still it was a "heads you lose tails he wins" contract. If his arm fell off you wasted $18 mill and if he was great...he was gone. Anyway Keuchel's $18 mill drops off next year, resign Abreu for $10 mill. Maybe we go sign Rodon next year 5 years $125 million.

.600 baseball and back to back playoff appearances in the last two years???? Baseball is a marathon and to think there is no hope is stupid. Last year on June 29th the Braves were 4 games under .500.

* You can't do that...they have played near .600 baseball in 20 and 21 and made the play offs the last two years. You can't throw out 2020 or the poor Dodgers would be the greatest team over the last 10 years without a WS. * Its hilarious how the narrative went "Sox will never spend money"...which I debunked on Soxtalk a dozen times...to "well they will spend money but stupidly". It does suck that 4 of their 6 highest paid players have been injured for a big chunk of the season...but is that stupid? * Pollock is not a big problem. He is a professional player. * Leury is a bad contract because it was $5 mill a year for three years which you could have gotten pretty much the same from Mendick for nothing. Still it is nice that the organization is loyal to guys that have put in time. Just sad that because of injuries I have to see stupid Leury in every game.

OK I guess we need to define "bad" contracts. Something like 5% or more of the total payroll for multiple years in the future? Hosmer, Snell, Manea, Pomeranz, Myers for the Padres? The Sox may have some misspent money but nothing like Will Myers 6 years at $15 mill a year or Hosmer 8 years at $18 mill per year. Keuchel salary is off the books after this year and we got a Cy Young type season out of him in one of the years. Lynn and Grandal have some risk going forward but they are both coming off great seasons and have been hurt this year and we are only truly committed to them for one more year. You can b**** about a lot of things but Sox managing their payroll has been sensible.

I know you have a deep abiding love for the Padres and are just on Soxtalk to troll....but come on. I'm not going "out of my way" to ignore the Padres players in their prime or past prime. I also didn't mention Abreu, Lynn, Hendricks or Tim Anderson who are four of the White Sox best players. My point was that the Sox core are young guys and the Padres core team is built for this year. Yes the 35 year old Darvis is having a great first half. And Musgrove has had a great April, May as he usually does. But if you were drafting the pitchers from today moving forward you would take Cease, Kopech, Gio then Musgrove, Lynn or Darvish. And why would I compare anyone to the White Sox emergency starters? They are not consequential to the team. The Padres two top spot starters are Clevinger and Snell who they paid a lot for and gotten very little out of. The entire future of the Padres is sitting on Tatis shoulders and he has been hurt as much as Eloy and if he can't stick at SS his value drops a lot as a LF. That was my only comparison between Tatis and Eloy...two superstar hitters that have been hurt a lot. if I were comparing future value I would say Robert vs Tatis is a better comparison and at this point I'm not sure I would make that trade. Your final bit is funny...the only way for the Sox to have a chance this year is if 7 things go right...Even though injuries are healing and regression to the mean all seem to favor Sox hitters...while the Padres will certainly continue on their current pace...even though they did the same thing last year they finished the season going 20 games under .500 for the last two months of the year?

Why? Hahn's built a roster that has won the equivalent of 90 games two years in a row with a restrictive payroll. Hahn's adds of Graveman and Cueto have been very good while Pollock was a guy almost everyone on Soxtalk liked as an add. I know it's Soxtalk position that everyone in the organization from top to bottom are idiots but still... top three talent roster wise with no bad contracts (Well, Leury, but only bad because...why?). In the off season if we had signed Conforto and Marcus Semien, giving up compensatory picks and $300 million in salary, Soxtalk would have been over the moon...and now we would be in a much worse position. It's HARD to build a championship roster (Phillies? Angels? Dodgers?) but we have built a competitive team and we just need to remember that as we float through the doldrums.

I agree with that...which is why, in spite of the bad half season, you have to be excited about Gio, Cease, Kopech, Crochet about to hit a really good three year stretch and Vaughn, Robert, Jiminez and Yoan doing the same. Angels prove that you can't build around two stars but I'm pretty sure you can build around 8.

I think my point was that didn't happen LAST year for the Padres...from Aug 10th on the Pads went 12-34. The Sox have had everything go wrong this 70 games but they aren't 22 games under .500 in that stretch. And for all the praise you give to the Padres...they are actually not a up and coming young team. Looking at their key players that are 27 or younger....Kim 26 at shortstop with career .640 OPS. Tatis who has been their version of Eloy. Grisham, 25, who had been good but has been worse than Moncada this year. Abrams, 21, who can't hit anything. Azocar, 26, same. Gore, 23 has been a good pitcher but pitched 50 bad innings last year in the minors and out all of 2020 so talk about ramping up. The Padres are getting it done with a bunch of guys 29 or older. They have lots of holes to fill and lots of payroll committed. I wouldn't want to trade rosters.

* OK your whole "seasons" thing is such nonsense. Moncada has played in 30 games this year and he's been obviously injured in many. But the last three years he has been the 6th best 3B in baseball by fWar...better than Manny Machado. And he's 27, not 6 seasons, old. Yes Jiminez has been hurt last year and this year which is frustrating because he his 45 home runs in his first 175 games at 23. As I mentioned Buxton was also injury prone until suddenly he was the best player in baseball...sometimes it takes time. Robert has put up a 7.3 bWar after his first 183 games AT TWENTY FOUR, not three seasons. *To say "many guys hit their athletic peak at 26" is just meaningless. There were two big in depth studies and they say 28 or 30 for peak....you try to trash two studies by saying 'look at a couple of data points'. Sure some will do that earlier but which White Sox young player do you think has hit his peak and will never be better??? *As for your "average age" thing...a meaningless stat because the back end of the White Sox roster is filled with old guys because they are trying to win a championship. Their core best players are still very young and likely to get better. * Of course there's reason for impatience. But worrying about 2024's payroll seems like you are hunting for gloom. The Sox are 4 games under .500 with 88 to play. The injuries have been crazy. To date Davis Martin and Jimmy Lambert combined have started more games than Lance Lynn. VV and DK combined have more starts than Cease. Bummer, Kelly, Crochett and Liam have missed big chunks of the season...that group of four would have constituted one of the best bullpens in baseball last year and this year they are hurt. But guys are coming back. If they win 62% of their remains games they end up at 90 wins. I'm hoping for that.

I think the fundamental problem we all have is impatience. Almost nobody burns up the league at 25. Players come up and they have to adjust. So we see glimpses of Robert for thirty games and we say "he's going to be one of the greatest ever" and then he goes in a slump and we say he is garbage. The reality is baseball players and pitchers peak at 30 (J.C. Bradbury and published in Journal of Sports Sciences) or 28 (Mitchel Lichtman of Hardball Times). The core of our team are young guys who have all flashed greatness. Look at the list of players that have not even hit peak from the most conservative estimate. Player Age Garrett Crochet 23 Andrew Vaughn 24 Luis Robert 24 Eloy Jiménez 25 Gavin Sheets 26 Jake Burger 26 Michael Kopech 26 Dylan Cease 26 Yoan Moncada 27 Lucas Giolito 27 Vaughn, Robert and Jimenez are babies. Cease and Kopech are just learning to be great. To give up on those five because of a few injuries is madness. Look at Byron Buxton. Hurt at 24. Hurt at 25. Covid season at 26 and now the last two years he's one of the best player in baseball. Moncado has been near great for the last three years and you are dumping him because of a bad 30 games? Gio has been near great for the last three years and you are dumping him because of a bad 5 starts? So we have rising stars coupled with a couple of players at their peak (Anderson, Bummer, Reylo) or past their peak (Lynn, Abreu, Grandal, Hendricks) and suddenly a very exciting crop of minor leaguers. The Sox have had an incredibly bad run of luck with injuries this year...and cold starts and yes I suspect the team is down and frustrated. But I still think they are going to get healthy and hot. And if not this season?? Look at that Padres last season...sometimes you have all the parts but it takes some hard times before you learn how this all fits together.

But this isn't even analytics. Everyone knew that some pitchers would be effected. Everyone. If you asked which Sox pitcher would likely be damaged by this...someone should have suggested...how about that guy that won his Cy Young while pitching with the Astro-cheaters? The guy with marginal stuff but with unbelievable command of it. Katz should have said...we need to watch DK closely. Then immediately he was terrible and he for months he was terrible...they KNEW this...they didn't pitch him in the playoffs. This spring he was terrible. The first few starts he was terrible. It's about to be June and he's still marching out there every fifth start. So stupid.

I try to be positive and supportive of management but this stuff drives me crazy. MLB announced starting June 21st, 2021 that the umpires would be checking pitchers for doctoring baseball substances. DK had pitched 26 games with the White Sox before June 21, 2021 and had an ERA of 3.01 (not just great in 2020...his ERA on June 15th 2021, the start before the check, was 3.78). The 24 starts since then (I thew out the suspended game on June 26 2021 as it was half in and half out) his ERA is 7.18. Come on...is this not obvious to everyone? How can the White Sox not see this?? It's not like it's a small sample size or explained by a slump or injury. DK is a Cy Young candidate when he's cheating and he's the worst pitcher in baseball when he's not and it's very frustrating to watch the White Sox come to any other conclusion. Yes he shut out the Yankees for 15 outs a few weeks ago (his ERA is 7.54 without that start) but it's not like he was even good then...7 baserunners in 5 innings. Honestly...resign Rodon, bullpen game, minor leaguer spot starts, VV...almost any other scenario comes up better than DK and yet every fifth game here he comes again. It drags me over to the "organizational stupidity" majority side here on Soxtalk.

Eloy hit 45 home runs in his first 175 games at 23. He hit .296 at 23. He was hurt last year. Why would you hate him?

A superstar like Marcus Semien?? Sox ties, perfect positional fit, sure he's 32 and coming off a career year...but Sox could have had him for $175 million and all of Soxtalk would have had a glorious winter, and ten games in, when he's hitting .128 with almost no power or walks...it would be the apocalypse on Soxtalk. We already have a bunch of superstars (many also struggling) so they spent the money on depth. Let's see how it plays out before we call them stupid.

Sorry I misunderstood your intent. I really don't think Kuechel hitting his 160 inning vesting is a concern with the Sox bullpen...even if he is REALLY good I think the Sox keep him as a 5 inning pitcher and with 30 starts he doesn't make the 160 inning mark. But let's be fanciful...and he regains his control and he is very good this year...wouldn't there be a scenario at 140 innings where they restructure his contract and turn it into a three year $30 million thing? Mark Buehrle as a fifth starter for the next three years would be a nice option.

Honestly I don't THINK Dallas is going to come back...and yes the day after the Spider Tack ban took place his ERA was 3.78 and the rest of the season it was 7. He also came from Houston which has a history of bending the rules for results. Still Katz and Dallas are smart and must be working on a plan to get that control back. I just thought the thread was funny with the unstoppable Robbie Ray against the pathetic Dallas Keuchel yet the two have pitched in the majors for the last 9 years and Dallas has been better than Robbie 8 of those years.

Very Soxtalk-ish of you to present the nightmare scenario. As a natural contrarian...what about the other scenario? Keuchel has had years of 6.5WAR, 4.5, 3.9 and as recently as 2020 a pro rated 5.5 WAR. He was bad last year...and in the spring, but he is a 5 time gold glover including last year, a CY young winner and finished 5th in CYA two years ago. What if last year was just "one of those years"...he finds his command again (was never a power pitcher so aging shouldn't effect him) and through the next 20 starts averaged 7 innings a game with a 3.5 ERA and is 9-4. Sort of like Buehrle age 34-35. Do you shut him down? I think everyone wants to bury Keuchel and forget that even with last years horrible year...he's got 10 years and 1500 major league innings with a FIP under 4. I'm rooting for the bounce back.

I think you stated this very well. I've been trying to make the argument poorly...but this is potentially the best "worst farm team". I've followed a lot of bad Sox farm systems and I just don't feel like this one was that bad. I think their top 30...top fifteen for sure...is filled with a lot of very high potential guys that because of a series of bizarre circumstances (COVID, Cuba tax issues, injuries) didn't show the upside . I also feel like the point of the farm system is not to produce a bunch of Leury Garcia's and Matt Fosters....but to produce the occasional Tim Anderson/Aaron Bummers. I would rather add a couple of potential stars each year than a dozen filler pieces. But if you have a dozen filler pieces the system-ranking guys loves you because your farm teams win a lot of games and you have lots of "major league ready" parts. Still I completely agree that they need to add MORE. It's so discouraging as a fan to look at the thin soup of Charlotte roster...even the Birmingham roster...there's nothing wrong with having a couple of stars AND a bunch of filler pieces. Leury Garcia has value...it's just not sexy. The biggest problem with the "worst farm system" narrative is that I think the White Sox had a bad history of drafting and international scouting that they have fixed but it is taking time to work through the system and we should see the results this year (and would have earlier except for COVID).

What happens if we DFA him and he passes through wavers and we resign him. Then he starts smoking the ball in Charlotte...can another team then claim him to their MLB roster...or is he ours for the year?