michelangelosmonkey
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Posts posted by michelangelosmonkey
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44 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:
Sure.
And the rest of the baseball world forgot that we don't have Rodon, that we have an AARP candidate at 2B, and that as of right now, the 3rd most fWAR in the OF comes from Leury Garcia.
But just like Pepperidge Farm remembers, so too do we. In a few weeks when Velazquez shits his pants and Harrison is DFA'ed, the rest of baseball will remember.
It's so refreshing that you can see into the future and are able to let us know that every move the White Sox have made is going to turn out terrible. It's super that coming off a 93 win season with players that have barely scratched their potential you remind us we are doomed because we signed a 2War second baseman. It's so nice that you let us know that Dallas Keuchel who was a top five Cy Young candidate two years ago is washed up because he was terrible last year, and that Kimbrel who has had a hall of fame career and last year had four of the greatest months ever by a reliever but then finished off with a bad two months is also finished and yet Conforto who was a pretty good player two years ago and a very good player two years before that but was terrible last year is certain of a bounce back and we should sign him for $100 million. It's great that you can tell us that the same Conforto who was a -1 dWar last year and has had a negative dWar every year of his career will be a great RF and we are screwed if we try Vaughn/Engel combination. Its super that we hear over and over how cheap we are...until we are a top five payroll...and then you can nimbly switch to...it's not that we are cheap it's that we spend money stupidly. It's also great that even in the face of the evidence that the teams with the top 6 bullpens last year averaged 95 wins...we are morons for investing in our bullpen. Some people are half glass full, some are half glass empty...Soxtalk is the glass is half full of poison.
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24 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
Didn't work last year, had to trade Madrigal and Heuer from the big league roster...and if a young pitcher like Vera or Kelley makes a huge jump, the Sox will need that guy to sustain the window in 2024 and beyond as the veterans start to age out.
What didn't work? They're bullpen was second in baseball by fWar...they won the division and went to the playoffs in a very injured year. They traded for Kimbrel because at the trade deadline he was amazing and if he had kept it up...who knows? Much easier to analyze trades after six months...and Cody is hurt, Madigral is always hurt...maybe Kimbrel bounces back. Or, you know, we could just hate on everything.
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1 hour ago, kleedawg said:
we are going to need a minimum of 6 sp this year as Kopech's innings will be limited and he'll probably wind up in the pen during post season. I still expect Keuchel to be tradedin apackage like the yanks did with Sanchez or the reds did with suarez. Lopez would be a swing man. But we still need 1 more reliable starter at least.
How about Keuchel + 10 mil., cespedes, burger, Colins, and Thompson to the reds for Castillo + maybe a catcher.or RP
Why not Keuchel as our extra starter? I know he was BAD last year...but he was top five CYA the year before that. He is a great fielding, crafty lefty. Right now we have four power arm righty starters...having Keuchel in the middle to screw up teams? I mean he's on the roster and costs no prospects. I know he is innings limited but with Lopez and Crochett and Keuchel it would seem like you could give everyone a bit of time off. If Keuchel is terrible by the trade deadline...well then hopefully some of the very young prospects will be getting some buzz and we can trade for a stud starter for the playoffs.
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5 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:
The guy played a hell of an OF last year for someone who never played out there.
With some seasoning, I see no reason why he can't develop into a formidable everyday defensive OF.
Well he IS slow. I agree with you that last year he was way better than I thought he was going to be. I think even...competent? I think he gets better as he figures out angles and positioning. But he's never going to be fast enough to be "good". Still...Castellanos, Conforto, Schwarber? None of those guys was a good defensive outfielder. If that's all we want...why can't Engel be that guy? And all those guys that will say "he can't stay healthy" are the same guys crying that Madrigal isn't with the team. I don't mind a plan where they throw creativity at the problem and not just money...because you will NEED that money eventually.
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4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
That’s ONE way to put it…
They are fifth in payroll (a figure I've been predicting for a year). They have LOTS of good players and not a single bad contract. As some players get more expensive, some (Keuchel, Kimbrel, Jose) drop off. That's really smart and allows you to keep your window going. If Colas or Cespedes are your RF next year (a suggestion I have been called an idiot for suggesting) will cost you nothing. You can't pay everyone (well the Dodgers can) which means you have to make smart choices as you go. Not spending a fortune in RF this year might be one of them. It's not sexy to be prudent but a long term winning team is very sexy.
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1 hour ago, HOFHurt35 said:
My two concerns with "trying to go all in" as some of you guys want:
a) we make another stupid short sighted trade. I don't want to give up an Andrew Vaughn for a one year pitcher rental.
b) we finally break the bank on a mega deal for say Conforto (who so many of you guys love for some odd reason) and he becomes our Jason Heyward.
Here's what I do want the Sox to do the minute they decide to stay away from the remaining Free Agent Market...... Announce long term deals for Giolito and TA.
I think this is such a good point. I don't want to do a couple of years of greatness...I want the White Sox to extend their window as long as possible and as sad as it may be for some...money matters. We are top five payroll, near $200 million right now. Giving 4/$80 for Conforto or Castellanos is financially risky. Over time you have to balance the higher paid old guys with the young cheap guys and the old meh guys. The $20 million you pay this year for Conforto is fine...but it ties your hands for 23,24 and 25. As I watch Hahn I think that is what he is doing. I don't want to see the team unable to sign Gio long term in 2024, or TA in 2025 because we are weighted down by the Conforto contract. Especially because I don't think Conforto will be materially better in RF (fWar) than the Hydra...but will cost $15 million more a year. Plus the Hydra gets valuable experience and AB's. Because they have been prudent with contracts when the trade deadline comes they can swoop in and make a big move from a floundering team.
As for the stupid bullpen spending (by most on here) last year five of the six teams teams with the best bullpens (by fWar) went to the playoffs and Seattle won 90 games but didn't go. Last year the White Sox were #2 in relief fWar...and you had Matt Foster, Evan Marshall and Ryan Burr pitch in a 100 games with a FIP around 5. You replace those innings with Graveman, Kimbrel and Kelly and you can't get excited by that?? We have a seriously stacked bullpen...and yes maybe one or two will go down...but man Bummer should be better, Kimbrel better, Crochet better...and percolating arms in the minors.
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7 minutes ago, chw42 said:
Wait when did we get Madrigal back?
Whoops...stupid Exel...Put in Gio at 27
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14 minutes ago, Tony said:
The offseason is still young. I assume the Sox are still going to make some more moves.
Having said that, I assumed you watched the playoffs in 2021. The Sox were not very competitive against the Astros. I also have serious questions on how they would have stacked up against the Dodgers/Braves/Rays.
Thus far, they are seemingly a worse team in 2022 than they were in 2021. And they've already spent around 17 million on new players.
That's why you are seeing the comments you are seeing.
Really young teams rarely win right away. They ran into a hot pitcher and the Astros are a bad match for the Sox pitching staff (power staff against the best fast ball hitting team in the leauge). Still to draw wild conclusions on 4 games? To say they are worse is just being dark.
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3 minutes ago, fathom said:
The gap between the Sox and other teams has closed instead of gotten larger. Take the Mariners for example.
OMG...so no one here sees internal growth with:
Name Age
Garrett Crochet 22
Andrew Vaughn 23
Luis Robert 23
Eloy Jimenez 24
Nick Madrigal 24
Romy Gonzalez 24
Gavin Sheets 25
Dylan Cease 25
Michael Kopech 25
Yoan Moncada 26
No one has a core of 26 and younger guys that are as good as this group. And we have no bad contracts on the books. And right now we have a top five payroll...we will b**** about everything.
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23 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:
If it was an even swap? Sure. But they gave up a Chris Sale's worth of prospects to get him, when they just could have paid Freeman.
That's fair but at this point in their window I think a teams payroll becomes more important than the prospects. It's one of the problems with handing out a $20 million per for four years to Conforto...we're going to want that payroll flexibility in 23, 24 to resign Gio, make a trade deadline splash, extend Vaughn.
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The negativity here is just unbelievable. Here we are coming off a 93 win season that wasn't even better because of terrible injury luck, we got young stars all over the diamond, we have five starting pitchers that could win the Cy Young (Keuchel was top five in Cy Young voting ONE YEAR AGO), the defense up the middle is as good as any team, we have a bullpen that had great pieces and we've just added two of the best arms available making them arguably the best bullpen in the league...Vegas and every power ranking around has us as a top five team...and post after post after post is "everything sucks" and the only thing that can fix this team is if we get this aging, below average defensive outfielder who had a career worst season (Keuchel is done but Conforto just had a one off??) whom the Mets trying desperately to win, with money no object, and knowing their players better than anyone say, hard pass? Let's see how things play out. It's in the 50's tomorrow....spring is in the air...can we just try to pretend we are at the most exciting time ever to be a Sox fan?
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8 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:
I can't speak for other people, but I'd be significantly less fixated on the Sox adding one of Conforto, Bryant, or Suzuki in free agency if they had the farm system depth to go out and trade for 5 WAR players in their prime like the Braves just did.
Wait until next year...I have argued before if you don't look at farm system rankings but rankings of a teams young players 23-26 and very young players 22-18 the White Sox would be near the top in both. The problem for the Sox farm system is all of the high end talent is either in the majors or newly arrived. If you can't get excited about Vega, Montgomery, Colas, Kath, Cespedes and all the high school arms...give it a year.
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10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
Seemingly the Braves thinking "They cannot or don't want to afford FA prices" is probably telling us something.
I'm not sure why this is controversial. You are basically exchanging 28 year old Olson for 32 year old Freeman. Each with a .900ish OPS last year. One is much cheaper. This is the kind of cold bloodedness that I hope the White Sox display. If Abreu has another good year this year and then wants a 5 year $100 million contract...I HOPE they don't get sentimental and offer it to him.
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8 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:
Madrigal was a top 10 2nd basemen (by fWAR) at the time of his injury. His bat clearly plays at the big league level and I think he was making strides before the injury. I don't want to have another Madrigal debate with anyone, really, but he was objectively a very productive player and clearly better than the utility guys they've brought in to replace him.
Before we anoint Nick...he played 6 games after May last year. He had a major injury the year before. He had a major injury in his last year in college. I loved his potential but is he not the positional equivalent of Rodon?
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1 hour ago, Flash Tizzle said:
It’s amazing when you step away from Soxtalk for awhile and when you return, it’s like everyone just collectively turned against Rodon. It’s honestly so surreal.
How is the contract for the Giants terrible? At worst, he’s a two year burden. Big deal. At best, he pitches well and leaves after this season. Good, he must have pitched well to justify the exit. For a potential Cy Young pitcher, I will take a short term deal with him any day.
What else are we using this money for? They apparently didn’t care enough about cutting salary with Kimbrel. If there’s some grand scheme in place, fine. Maybe I’ve missed a thread in my absence which theorizes an improvement to our starting rotation which doesn’t involve Rodon.
The White Sox are geniuses at convincing their fans that someone is not worthy of the team’s money.
I was begging for Rodon to come back...and have been in mourning since...he's exactly what the team needs...a power pitching lefty...if he's as good going forward as he was in 2021 you have five aces. But honestly...you can't listen to what management says, you have to watch what they do. No one knows Rodon better than Katz. I have great respect for Katz. Katz basically said...not at any price. If they really believed he was ready to become a stud for three years they would have inked him to 3/60 before the lockout. If they were certain he would pass physicals they would have given him a QO. I just think they think they were dealing with a ticking bomb.
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Just now, caulfield12 said:
Well, except for TA having all the raw tools in the world to play SS, vs. Vaughn’s quite obvious physical limitations.
Ugh...I'm NOT talking about Vaughn being the RF forever. He seems to be coordinated and smart...just slow...and has a potentially amazing bat...and he's 24...and 1b is blocked...and he's cheap...and he fixes one of three problems you have. I don't see a good 2b solution internally and I'd rather spend money on pitching. i think Rodon over Keuchel is WAY greater than Conforto over Vaughn.
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11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
Is your argument can we win a World Series with bad defense out of RF? I mean sure, anything is possible. But what you actually said is Vaughn & Sheets would only hurt our defense “a bit” which I fully disagree with. Now, if you’re telling me I’m somehow getting Hall of Fame offensive production out of Vaughn & Sheets, then sure, I’ll endure some shit defense but that seems a bit optimistic to me
Also, not sure what you mean we got Engel as our defensive OF 40% of the time. Are you suggesting he comes into each game during the 6th?
I would think Engel plays a fair bit as the starter, and yes, comes in most games in the 7th inning as a defensive replacement. And yes, I think Vaughn has a chance to be a hall of fame hitter. IF we can develop him so he can play multiple positions he is even more valuable. I mean honestly we talk about these guys like they are car parts...you can't put the carburetor where the windshield wiper goes. These are human athletes that play baseball. Vaughn never played outfield before and they put him out there and he was OK. As he figures out angles and positioning he should be better. To just categorically say...too slow...he will be terrible...I think is unfair. I also think it is unfair to say Eloy will always be a terrible outfielder. These are 24 year old athletes and they should get better with experience. Look at Tim Anderson...he was NOT a good short stop in the minors but he was newish at baseball....he was a -1.5dWar in 2017 and now he's a +1dWar. There's a chance for hope. At the same time there are plenty on here that want to pay Nick Casellanos, the 30 year old with a career -10dWar, and there is NO CHANCE he is going to develop into an OK fielder. I would take Vaughn over NC for many reasons.
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32 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:
1. Incorrect. Justin Verlander was in the middle of a 4.1 fWAR season at age 34. He went for 5.4, 3.1, and 3.2 fWAR in the 3 seasons prior to then. So no, Verlander wasn't in any sort of decline as Shields was.
2. I think the SOX FO didn't do any sort of projections at the time, or ignored them, or a combination. Back then, KW had a maddening George Custer-like idiocy to always go for it, when prudence dictated otherwise.
3. This is outright false. Shields was traded on 4 June. In the 10 games prior to the trade, they'd gone 2-8, including a 7 game losing streak. In the 15 games before June 4, they went 5-10. They were clearly Free Fallin'.
4. In Shields' age 33 season, he went for 0.8 fWAR. That means his decline was already beginning the year before the SOX made that moronic trade.
Also, he came pre-injured, which was additionally stoopid.
1) Verlander in Detroit in his 34th year pitched 170 inning with a 4.1 FIP which was his worst in a decade.
2) Poor old Custer
3) clearly the trade was consummated on the 10th but it was in the works, I suspect, for weeks.
4) I use WAR...and he was at 1.9 the year before. Yes he had a down year but not a terrible year...and was off to a strong start in 2016.
Listen...you win the argument because it turned out badly...and because of the lottery ticket...historically badly. My only point is you can go find instances where getting a 34 year old pitcher turned out good. Trading assets for Bassitt has every chance of being Shields 2.0. Or it could turn out great. It's only after the fact that we can be confidently right or wrong. (Note I didn't like the trade at the time...mostly because I was optimistic about Eric Johnson...wrong and stupid).
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3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:
Here's the other part of the context of that trade:
1. James Shields was 34 years old, so he was already in decline.
2. That year's white sox team was projected for a losing season before the year started.
3. After a miraculous start to 2016, the Robin Ventura-lead 2016 White Sox were predictably in free fall. In other words, they were clearly in regression.
4. SD's ownership was publicly ripping Shields for turning into a turd, which SHOULD HAVE trashed any negotiation leverage their FO might have had.
5. Cleveland were projected to be division leaders, and after a hesitant start, came on fire to crush the ALC, as predicted. In other words, they regressed to THEIR mean.
Despite ALL OF that, they still made a moronic trade, instead of selling pieces to look to another window to add to Abreu/Sale/Q.
1) So was Verlander...and then he had a resurgence.
2) I think fate forced the White Sox to go for it...no one thought Sale would be THAT good, no one thought Quintana was anything. Rodon was looking great as a rookie. Abreu and Eaton looked like stars and they started out 24-12. We are mad that they went for it? No we are mad Shields sucked.
3) They were making the trade in the midst of their hot run...way before trade deadline. A top four of Sale, Q, Rodon and Big game was tantalizing.
4) He wasn't a turd...he was a very good 3-4 starter. The owner was mad he wasn't Chris Sale because he paid him like Chris Sale.
5) They didn't HAVE to win the division...just make the playoffs...and ride a couple of stud pitchers to the WS like Arizona did a few years before with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.
The trade was only moronic because they threw in a lottery ticket that happened to be the Powerball winner. Never, ever put a powerball ticket in a birthday card. It can only turn out badly.
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1 minute ago, fathom said:
There it is
I feel like we have a potential all-star at 7 of 9 positions...he's not wrong. Go get Rodon and Tepera and hold your assets to the trade deadline.
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23 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:
Sheets and Vaughn are terrible in the OF because they can't move/cover ground. Manny Ramirez never had that issue.
So Jack...what is worse? I feel like Vaughn catches everything he can get to...but he's super slow. With smart positioning and his improving learning curve he can be a Conforto level outfielder. Manny could get to things he just couldn't catch them....that's not fixable.
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3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
Sure, but Shields wasn't even a TOR starter at the end of his Royals' career, let alone with the Padres, and his stuff had clearly eroded from his Big Game James days in Tampa...you were never going to get Verlander-Esque results from him in a million years.
Shields had put up 19 WAR in the previous 5 seasons and had a +.7 WAR in 11 starts that year. His ERA was 3.0 after 10 starts and then he had that horrible start where he gave up 10 runs in 2 innings. You could, at the time, say that presaged a miserable decline (which it did) or you could say it was an outlier and we were getting a great 4th starter to help us reach the playoffs. It wasn't stupid...it didn't work.
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46 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
There is almost no chance that Adolfo is a part of this organization five weeks from now, Cespedes wasn’t very good last year from an offensive perspective, and Colas has played zero games in the US. We should not let any of these guys impact the decision-making in the midst of our competitive window. Remember when we thought one of Rutherford, Basabe, Gonzalez, Adolfo, Cordell, Tilson, etc. would be the answer for RF? Unfortunately that did not work out for us.
And I don’t think there is any chance a Vaughn/Sheets/Engel is going to match a healthy Conforto. The bulk of any offensive value the first two guys provide would be negated by their extremely poor defensive contributions. We’ve dicked around with RF for far too long and need to get it right while we’re legit World Series contenders.
Yes it's terrible about Adolfo...he's only 24 and put up an .850 OPS at Birmingham last year. I just wish they had him one more year. As for Cespedes...he put up an .800+ OPS in his first taste of baseball after being out for a year and a half. He was terrible in the AFL but SSS? The point isn't that I hate Conforto...but there is always a budget and the question is...is this the guy you want to pay $20 million a year for the next four years. You talk about offensively terrible for Cespedes...Conforto WAS terrible last year...it IS a risk that he's declining. I want the window to be open as long as it can be...part of that is not getting a big acquisition wrong...when you have potential solutions near term and long term.
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31 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
Vaughn & Sheets were Jermaine Dye bad in RF. The defense will suffer much more than a bit. Was I the only who watched the playoffs and saw Leury’s shit defense cost us in the OF? Just get an average fielder out there and it will allow Robert to cheat more towards LF and offset the shit defense we can’t avoid out there.
You mean they were as bad as the RF the last time they won the World Series? But young and cheap and part of the future? Remember you have Engel as your defensive outfielder probably 40% of the time. Vaughn was brand new at RF and will get better. Shields is mostly a situational piece. And I know you hate this but...not one of them is as bad as Manny Ramirez in the outfield with his ten time All Star appearances and multiple World Series wins.
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
Go look at the Oakland A's in the early 70's. They, like the White Sox right now, had a a core of maybe 8 players and pitchers under 27 that looked like they were going to be all timers...Reggie Jackson, Joe Rudi, Gene Tenace, Dave Duncan, Catfish Hunter, Vida Blue, Ken Holtzman and Rollie Fingers. They put some good seasoned players around that group and then won three straight WS's. Note that first WS team in 72, also had a crappy second baseman and a crappy RF (and a skin flint owner). I think Rick Hahn recognizes this...we could be on the brink of a dynasty...the only reason the A's didn't win two or three more WS is that the star players got expensive and the cheap owner sold off the team. Conforto 0f 2017-2020 would be great on this team. Conforto of last year would be nothing and a $100 million mistake contract could mean you can't afford Gio in a couple of years. Vegas and every power ranking thinks we are a top five team in all of baseball even if we put a snowman in rightfield. This is one of the great 26 and under core of players I can remember of any team...the key is to foster and grow that group for five or six years...and as fans we need to be EXCITED about it...and not drive ourselves crazy over an outfielder the Mets don't want.